Operation unthinkable launched

[Deleted member 1487]

And another massive issue that Nuker left out: the Luftwaffe had the largest integrated air defense system in the world from 1942-45. The Soviets at best have enough mobile radar stations for point defense of some installations with range enough for 30 miles, the best of it being US and British LL gear. Nuker's contention that the Soviets can put up enough of a fight is contingent on having early warning and an integrated command and control system for air defense, which the Soviets totally lack in Central Europe and only existed in the PVO in certain areas in the USSR, namely Moscow. So they will not have the ability to see the Wallied air raids coming, lack high altitude interception, lack a command system that can prioritize interceptions or even order them, and just are stuck with an offensive army support air arm in the VVS that is going to have to fly CAP over army units to prevent them from being slaughtered by hordes of Wallied fighter-bombers using rockets, cannons, and napalm.

No early warning system, not command and control for air defense, lack of AAA to defend all the necessary logistics targets, lack of high altitude interceptors, and outnumbered 2:1 against a much more highly trained, technically advanced, and well supplied air force spells death. I mean the Soviets haven't even encountered Window used operationally, so what little radar sets they have will be shut down by Chafe.

 

[lionhead]

Gonna need a source for those figures.

Well i'm not so good at sources. But its generally accepted the Soviet had easily doubled the amount of divisions available in 1944 than in 1941. So its safe to assume they had even more by the end of the war. Lets say about 500 divisions, while the allies combined had maybe 100 at max. So maybe not 10:1, but certainly 5:1. Maybe Martin Gilbert or Alan Clark talked about it.

 

[Deleted member 1487]

Well i'm not so good at sources. But its generally accepted the Soviet had easily doubled the amount of divisions available in 1944 than in 1941. So its safe to assume they had even more by the end of the war. Lets say about 500 divisions, while the allies combined had maybe 100 at max. So maybe not 10:1, but certainly 5:1. Maybe Martin Gilbert or Alan Clark talked about it.

Soviet divisions were at 491 in V-E day:
http://www.world-war-2.info/statistics/
However their divisions were less than half of the number of men in a US division. Even their corps were probably slightly smaller in overall manpower than US divisions. So if you halve that number and understand a lot of Soviet divisions were majorly understrength, occupation troops only, or were under/overage you understand that their capabilities were not that great.

On top of that they had to occupy a lot of territory behind the lines that was not friendly and had to use 'allied' troops like the Romanians who were on board for fighting the Germans, but not the US. Also the USSR had its forces strung out all over the Balkans, their own territories, Germany, Poland, Czechoslovakia, Austria, etc. while the Wallies ITTL would be concentrated for an attack in Central Europe.

Also most Soviet units were foot bound with horse powered logistics; only the mechanized units had trucks. The US on the otherhand was totally mechanize/motorized, so had unprecendented mobility compared to the Soviets. The British too enjoy huge motorization compared to the Soviets.

Soviet brigade totals in 1945:
http://www.dupuyinstitute.org/ubb/Forum4/HTML/000028.html

 

[Anaxagoras]

One should also consider the fact that the French Army was rapidly growing in strength by mid-1945. From D-Day to the end of the war in Europe, hundreds of thousands of French troops were remobilized. If the Soviets were to make a play for Western Europe, these forces would be available for the Western Allies, further negating the USSR's numerical advantage.

 

[Paul V McNutt]

If Operation Unthinkable is launched that means the Soviets have attacked.It is another pearl harbor. So British and American public opinion is behind World War III.

 

[abc123]

I think that no such operation would be started before victory over Japan is achieved. So, at least in late Spetember 1945.

 

[ivanotter]

ehm Paul: Unthinkable was a plan for an unprovoked attack on USSR by UK and US. The first plan did not mention anything about a Soviet attack.

It would totally shatter any moral high-ground the W-Allies had.

On top of, using nuclear weapons on Russia (as is also suggested) would make the world a very different place.

killing 1/4 million Russians in an unprovoked attack? nuclear wasteland in Russia? It would be like calling the spirit of Hitler et al back.

... and to top it all: usage of former Wehrmacht (and probably SS) in the attack?

and before we get too into hurling nuclear bombs in Eastern Europe: What would be the targets?

tactical targets:
East Germany (while still having the usage of German troops)? first we kill your family, then we want you to do Barbarossa again. Me think not.

Poland: We went to war over this issue and now Poland is no more due to a few nuclear bombs?

Czech factories in the employ of Russia?

Further away:
Minsk? Kharkow? Smolensk? Leningrad?

Terrible convinced that the people would be happy being liberated via nuclear bombs. ... and see SS back in town.

Sorry, but nuclear release in Europe would be a non-starter in many ways.

Ivan

 

[TickTock The Witch's Dead]

If the Allies use nuclear weapons before the USSR can get its together than bam the rest is history.

 

[FickleCrossroad]

As implausible as it is, I just wish whatever ASB involved here also gave us a twenty episode version of Band of Brothers. Easy Company would have some work cut out for it once the airpower swung decisively west.

 

[Vrykon]

I remember a Blitzkrieg mod (Operation Apocalypse) with a reverse operation unthinkable: http://www.blitzkrieg.be/bkmods/oa

"July 20th, 1944, the Valkyrie Conspiracy becomes a succes and the world is stunned to hear that the greatest enemy of freedom, Adolf Hitler, has been assassinated. The West rejoices while Germany lies in a state of emergency. Having temporarily taken power, Field Marshal Erwin Rommel pleads for the war in Europe to end and asks the Allied powers to make a peace treaty in Berlin. Within a week, the Allies are assisting the German people get back on their feet. Life seems peaceful for the moment, but war isn't over yet...

In Moscow, the Soviet Generals are disgusted by the West’s willingness to give the Germans peace, and begin to make plans for revenge. On July 28th, 1944, the Soviets launch the greatest assault of the war, spanning the entire Eastern Front. Code named Operation Apocalypse, the Russian armies crush all resistance, and within weeks, have captured Berlin. But that wasn't the end: The Battle for Europe had just begun."

 

[galanx]

While American troops might be into a massive sneak attack on a current Ally, there would be huge problems for the British- the fall of the government for one, and immediate cancellation of the plan. If Churchill somehow manages to convince his Conservatives to support this plan, Labour and the Liberals would walk out immediately.

Remember what happened four days later?
Labour: 393 seats
Conservatives: 197

If Churchill suddenly launched a sneak attack to start a whole new war, after six years of fighting the Nazis, against the "galllant Soviet Allies", who had been the beneficiaries of five years of propaganda highlighting their tremendous struggle, you could probably reduce those Tory seats to double digits.

Or he could use that to cancel the elections- then you'd probably have Churchill being evacuated on a USAF plane to avoid getting Mussolini'd from a lamppost.

During the elections, with the massive support for Labour, the Conservatives kept saying "wait for the soldiers's vote", but it turned out the Tommies were just as pro-Labour as everybody else.

My father, an RN officer, was campaigning for Labour, as were all my uncles- every one a combat veteran. My grandparents' Victory rabbits were named Joey and Zukey, after guess who- and they accurately reflected the feelings of the British working class.

You'd have at least a General Strike, the docks and railways paralysed- and send in the troops to take over?- ever hear of the Kronstadt Rebellion?

Same in France and Italy, with Socialists and Communists working together- you'd have to cast the US Army as the Nazis, crushing the Resistance and gunning down their erstwhile Allies.

 

[lionhead]

Soviet divisions were at 491 in V-E day:
http://www.world-war-2.info/statistics/
However their divisions were less than half of the number of men in a US division. Even their corps were probably slightly smaller in overall manpower than US divisions. So if you halve that number and understand a lot of Soviet divisions were majorly understrength, occupation troops only, or were under/overage you understand that their capabilities were not that great.

On top of that they had to occupy a lot of territory behind the lines that was not friendly and had to use 'allied' troops like the Romanians who were on board for fighting the Germans, but not the US. Also the USSR had its forces strung out all over the Balkans, their own territories, Germany, Poland, Czechoslovakia, Austria, etc. while the Wallies ITTL would be concentrated for an attack in Central Europe.

Also most Soviet units were foot bound with horse powered logistics; only the mechanized units had trucks. The US on the otherhand was totally mechanize/motorized, so had unprecendented mobility compared to the Soviets. The British too enjoy huge motorization compared to the Soviets.

Soviet brigade totals in 1945:
http://www.dupuyinstitute.org/ubb/Forum4/HTML/000028.html

Alright, the Soviets outnumbered them, but marginally. Plus their resources where at a max stretch and supply line running out.

I am not defending the Soviets position as being unbeatable or even good anyway. They are not going to win, but neither are the Allies. There is a wall of Soviets standing between them and Warsaw. Or maybe Mogilev.

 

[Deleted member 1487]

Alright, the Soviets outnumbered them, but marginally. Plus their resources where at a max stretch and supply line running out.

I am not defending the Soviets position as being unbeatable or even good anyway. They are not going to win, but neither are the Allies. There is a wall of Soviets standing between them and Warsaw. Or maybe Mogilev.

Depending on the politics of the situation if the Allied armies are willing to fight it would be Wallied air power that would turn the Red Army into mincemeat. Especially because the Soviets didn't have tremendous stability or the means to stop them them, lacking strategic air defense or really even enough tactical air defense to stop the Wallied air forces. Especially if the West attacks first its going to be a surprise and would catch a lot of the VVS on the ground without Maskirovka camoflauge. I mean did the Soviets expect another war so soon?

 

[historynutty]

Best to wait until Japan is put down and the bomb is ready. After that the USSR is already bleed white and maintaining military production would be near impossible once USA aid is gone. USA production is at high tide and the manpower pool is still deep. With B-36 bombers to destroy Soviet industrial concentrations no matter how far behind the Urals they are placed the West -Brits & Dominions, USA, reformed Germans should win in about three years. I am assuming here that Truman would make short work of communist instigated problems in industry or on the docks.

I expect also that good use could be made of Vlasovites, the anti-Soviet Ukrainian resistance, Anti-Russian Poles/Balts/Finns- should be a million or more blooded vets right there. Combine that with German tech brought to life by Detroit & LA factories. Bad news for Russia.


My guess 15 - 20 nukes delivered on target over a period of months would break soviet will with no push beyond the 1939 soviet frontiers except in Ukraine and Belarus required or even desirable.

First nuke targets- soviet Caucasus and Vladivostok.

 

[ivanotter]

like 'just one push at the front door and the whole structure will come down"?

somebody said it, somewhere, can't remember, but it didn't exactly pan out.

Ivan

 

[Deleted member 1487]

like 'just one push at the front door and the whole structure will come down"?

somebody said it, somewhere, can't remember, but it didn't exactly pan out.

Ivan

There are a few slight differences in that in 1941 the Soviets weren't dependent on LL as they were in 1945, hadn't suffered 30 million deaths and the destruction of much of their core territories, weren't sitting well outside their borders on top of hostile populations, and facing foes that dwarfed their industrial production and who weren't facing famine at home.

 

[ivanotter]

This is really just to be 'naughty', but anyway here goes:

So, let us imagine that Unthinkable is rolling off the drawing board:

According to the votes and the common consensus as it goes right now, USSR will lose badly:

1 July: invasion on all fronts.
US air forces (USAAF) allocating massive air strikes with the whole inventory (B-17, B24, B-29). RAF in as well.

East Germany and Poland quickly over-run (that could probably happen)

SS back in business and 'liberating' Warsaw to the great joy of the few survivors of both 1944 and the Allies air strikes.

Belarus, Ukraine devastated by 10-15 nuclear bombs (let us just imagine that the 15 bombs were there in the August/September time frame - and that was projected anyway).

Western Russia is a nuclear waste land and Moscow is a parking lot.

In essence:

Western Russia, Ukraine, Belarus and Poland: Chernobyl written very large. Nothing to grow there for a few hundred years.

Death toll in the millions (again).

So what will the UK/US government do?

1) New government in Moscow?
2) Say - sorry - to Poland?
3) claim victory over communism?
4) have a few 'einzats' commands to kill the few commissars still alive?

How to feed the survivors after a nuclear holocaust? UK can't do that. They are broke. Will Truman do it? how?

It is hard to put the genie back in the bottle.

Just to get the discussion into over-drive.

Ivan

 

[Deleted member 1487]

I highly doubt the SS would be allowed to do anything. Regular Heer maybe, but even that I would be highly surprised at. More like rear area security, labor, etc. like the Russian Hilfsfreiwilliger that the Wehrmacht used. Probably bribed with extra rations. If the US was really amoral they use the to guard Soviet PoWs (allegedly Patton used German PoWs to guard people liberated from concentration camps at some points).
There are not nukes until August AFAIK though and the B-29s are in the East. B-24s and 17s are plenty to deal with the Soviets though. OSS and SOE work with the governments in exile in London to work with Polish, Czech, and any other group behind Soviet lines, while German intelligence left overs scooped up probably try and claim they have assets like the Wehrwulfs to contribute.

Nuclear holocaust? With 10-15 nukes? There weren't even that many ready in 1945. Also they were so low powered that they could not do more than affect about a square mile. We know from the Japan after effects that the radiation poisoning issues only happened when the fallout was still airborne in the 3 days after the bombing, after that period people that arrived showed no increased issues with cancer or radiation sickness. If you were in the area when it was airborne though you had issues. So there is not going to be an extended Chernobyl effect from using even 20 of the low yield 1st generation bombs.

 

[ivanotter]

According to wiki:

"
Ken Nichols, the District Engineer of the Manhattan Engineer District, wrote that at the beginning of August 1945, "[p]lanning for the invasion of the main Japanese home islands had reached its final stages, and if the landings actually took place, we might supply about fifteen atomic bombs to support the troops"
So, yes. there could/would be bombs available.
Wiki:
"Within the first two to four months of the bombings, the acute effects of the atomic bombings killed 90,000–166,000 people in Hiroshima and 39,000–80,000 in Nagasaki; roughly half of the deaths in each city occurred on the first day. During the following months, large numbers died from the effect of burns, radiation sickness, and other injuries, compounded by illness and malnutrition"

So, if we extrapolate (and that is not exact science, I know): 15 bombs x 200,000 deaths = 3 million in build-up areas of Eastern Europe.
I 'played' one of the nuclear calculators. 20 kt in Moscow = 90,000 dead immediately, 245,000 other fatalities.
On Chernobyl:
"A significant economic impact at the time was the removal of 784,320 ha (1,938,100 acres) of agricultural land and 694,200 ha (1,715,000 acres) of forest from production".
Admittedly, Chernobyl is different, but it is probably the closest we can get to real-life figures for an Eastern European country.
Ivan

 

[David T]

I realize we're supposed to handwave political reality away here, assume vast coordination made within a couple of months in perfect secrecy (I mean it's not like there is Communist espionage in the West--or it's not as though even some non-Communists might be so appalled by the idea of launching a third world war that *they* will leak it), assume that the words "false flag" magically overcome the slight problem of getting the populations of the West to *suddenly* align themselves with people they have hated for years and fight people they were taught to regard as allies--because the western governments (again all in perfect coordination and secrecy) will manufacture an incident and everyone will believe it. And of course there will be no sabotage--the one-fourth of the French electorate that votes Communist will take it all cheerfully (including those who got sabotage and military experience in the Resistance) as will the Communist-dominated CGT which has organized workers in key defense-related industries. Come to think of it, De Gaulle's Air Minister was a Communist! http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_Tillon (Even in the US and UK Communists were a significant presence in defense-industry-related unions.) Meanwhile in Britain the General Election is presumably cancelled without anyone raising an eyebrow. And, oh, yes, the US is going to agree to all this with Japan still unsubdued. (Or if you wait for the Japanese to surrender, we have to assume Attlee and the new Labour government are going to sign on to launching World War III in 1945...)

This should be placed with "Magic and ASB" timelines.