La Transizione Imperfetta - Italy 20 years after fascism

[Symeon20]

Did this fascist Austria try to make claims to Catholic parts of southern Germany?

What terrifies me is knowing what a Mussolini Italy with the support of the US could do in the Middle East. Knowing Mussolini's support for Zionism before his alliance with Hitler, he would absolutely push for the total expulsion of all Palestinians from the land. This means a much worse Nakba which has massive implications for the region especially with even more refugees in Lebanon, Syria, and Jordan as well as Egypt getting its share of them. Israel with Italian backing will definitely be able to seize all of Palestine with not even an inkling's chance for an independent Palestinian state in the area. If I were Ben-Gurion or any left-Zionist leader I'd be very terrified about the implications of literal fascist support for Israel. Fascism can easily be appealing to Israelis there.

And knowing that Mussolini will definitely support the Catholic Church, I can also see him talking the Maronite side of an alternate Lebanese Civil War with its own disastrous consequences. Can definitely see Italy propping up a ethnonationalist Maronite state in Lebanon with all other non-Maronites being forced out. And this is definitely crack territory, but maybe he can even support a Coptic ethnonationalist state in Egypt too. Not only can this mean Italy will support Christian fundamentalist movements in the Middle East similar to OTL Iran and Saudi Arabia supporting Islamic fundamentalist movements, but this can also mean that Islamism will be even stronger and more appealing. Desperate Assyrians may look to Italy for support which will make the Arab-Kurdish conflict even more chaotic. I feel sorry for the Arab Christians in this TL, being trapped between a Western colonial power backing several fascist entities and literal Salafists. Arabs are definitely not selling oil or gas to Italy in this TL for sure.

Not exactly sure what side Armenians would take though. But if Mussolini speaks out against Turkey, oof. But an anti-Turkey Italy will definitely support Greece against Turkey which means a way nastier war in Cyprus.

EDIT: Also realized that Mussolini will support the Pied-Noirs in the Algerian War and if France pulls out Italy will definitely try to fill in the void. So Algeria is screwed as well, with an apartheid-style state ruling over the place. As I mentioned before this TL will be even worse for Arabs. But then again you (PolishMagnet) said Algeria will be independence so maybe my point is moot.

EDIT 2: I could see Mussolini allowing Arab Christians to stay in Palestine and Lebanon even when he supports the creation of Zionist and Maronite ethnostates only because he's Christian and would like them around. Though them being opponents of Western-backed colonialism is going to give Mussolini a reality check and he might as well try to label them "Arameans" in try to "de-Arabize" them instead. That would have some nasty consequences too.

I read that the Alawites nearly got their own state in what's now Syria but never obtained it. Mussolini might try that if Syria goes through internal chaos and he wants to create another friendly fascist state on the Mediterranean. Also I thought about Mussolini going farther and even supporting an independent Druze state. But at this point it feels like crack territory and talking about genocide is depressing so I'd rather not go further.

Support for Zionism? Mussolini? I doubt he cared much about Jews, to be honest. Sure, jews were allowed to be blackshirts and in the party but that was more because here in Italy there wasn't much antisemitism as in central and eastern Europe (there were moments sadly, but nothing like the rest of Europe, at least in the last 2 or 3 centuries)

His support for Israel honestly depends on his relations with the arab world and Italy's political independence from Washington.

He tried several times to gain arab and islamic support and I doubt that he will try to help France in Algeria or Israel unless he is already considered an enemy from the Arab World. And a Mediterranean Conservative Power will be more appealing than the atheist Soviet Union or the Capitalist US to the Arab World (or at least Mussolini and successors would think like that).

I can see him supporting the Maronites in Lebanon, but that is the extent I see him "helping" the Pope. He was, after all, a staunch Atheist and wouldn't throw away relations with the Middle East for some christian minorities.

 

[PolishMagnet]

What terrifies me is knowing what a Mussolini Italy with the support of the US could do in the Middle East. Knowing Mussolini's support for Zionism before his alliance with Hitler, he would absolutely push for the total expulsion of all Palestinians from the land. This means a much worse Nakba which has massive implications for the region especially with even more refugees in Lebanon, Syria, and Jordan as well as Egypt getting its share of them. Israel with Italian backing will definitely be able to seize all of Palestine with not even an inkling's chance for an independent Palestinian state in the area. If I were Ben-Gurion or any left-Zionist leader I'd be very terrified about the implications of literal fascist support for Israel. Fascism can easily be appealing to Israelis there.

AFAIK he didn't "support" jews, he was just passively OK with them. This took the form of
1. If the jews want to assimilate into Italian society, this is perfect - more Italians (early Italian fascism was very pro-assimilation, based around a republican idea of nationality)
2. If they don't want to assimilate, they should get out (ie go to Palestine or some other "jewish homeland" - a lot of Nazis supported this idea early on as well)

And knowing that Mussolini will definitely support the Catholic Church, I can also see him talking the Maronite side of an alternate Lebanese Civil War with its own disastrous consequences. Can definitely see Italy propping up a ethnonationalist Maronite state in Lebanon with all other non-Maronites being forced out.

I didn't think about this but I will be adding it now haha.

And this is definitely crack territory, but maybe he can even support a Coptic ethnonationalist state in Egypt too. Not only can this mean Italy will support Christian fundamentalist movements in the Middle East similar to OTL Iran and Saudi Arabia supporting Islamic fundamentalist movements, but this can also mean that Islamism will be even stronger and more appealing.

I don't think a Coptic ethnostate is possible, even if forced from above by an invader. Regarding fundamentalist movements, I don't think there's enough motivation for Italy to do that, but I can see Italy and the Vatican sponsoring a lot of Christian groups - which could lead to more tension.

Desperate Assyrians may look to Italy for support which will make the Arab-Kurdish conflict even more chaotic. I feel sorry for the Arab Christians in this TL, being trapped between a Western colonial power backing several fascist entities and literal Salafists. Arabs are definitely not selling oil or gas to Italy in this TL for sure.

Interesting - I hadn't thought about how Assyrians might be impacted! However, I think them getting anything further than an autonomous region (like Iraqi Kurdistan) is extremely unlikely. Washington threw the Kurds under the bus repeatedly despite all the help that was given, so I doubt they would allow a violation of Iraq's territorial integrity.

Not exactly sure what side Armenians would take though. But if Mussolini speaks out against Turkey, oof. But an anti-Turkey Italy will definitely support Greece against Turkey which means a way nastier war in Cyprus.

Italy is indeed going to be anti-Turkey. I think I stated before, but Italy supports the Greek dicatorship's invasion of Cyprus.

I read that the Alawites nearly got their own state in what's now Syria but never obtained it.

Kind of true, but it was more a revival of an old partition plan of Syria. Revived because the French were looking for some way to get a European-aligned state out of decolonisation. The loss of ports would have also severely weakened Syria.

This ultimately didn't happen, and the Alawites got a lot of concessions. Add to that, they were much better off than most of Syria, so the Alawites ended up forming a kind of elite in the new Syria (the Al Assad family is Alawite).

Ah, I've missed this TL. Very nice! I do so love the interview format you've gone with.
I can't wait to see what you have in store next!

Thanks
It's nice to know people appreciate it.

Support for Zionism? Mussolini? I doubt he cared much about Jews, to be honest. Sure, jews were allowed to be blackshirts and in the party but that was more because here in Italy there wasn't much antisemitism as in central and eastern Europe (there were moments sadly, but nothing like the rest of Europe, at least in the last 2 or 3 centuries)

His support for Israel honestly depends on his relations with the arab world and Italy's political independence from Washington.

Yes, exactly.

He tried several times to gain arab and islamic support and I doubt that he will try to help France in Algeria or Israel unless he is already considered an enemy from the Arab World. And a Mediterranean Conservative Power will be more appealing than the atheist Soviet Union or the Capitalist US to the Arab World (or at least Mussolini and successors would think like that).

Yes exactly, the whole "Sword of Islam" thing is a hilarious example of Mussolini's attempts to get Arab support. ITTL Italy keeps trying to get Arabs on-side but fails similarly to OTL. Italy switches support to Israel as a result of a few factors:
1. USSR and Arab states put pressure on Italy to relinquish Libya (unimaginable as the territory is a massive source of oil and oil revenue)
2. US supports Italy insofaras they are a wall against communism
3. Israel encapsulates "the enemy of my enemy is my friend" (Arabs hate Israel, Arabs hate Italy --> Italy and Israel should team up)

The last point also leads to Italy backing the far right in Israel.

I can see him supporting the Maronites in Lebanon, but that is the extent I see him "helping" the Pope. He was, after all, a staunch Atheist and wouldn't throw away relations with the Middle East for some christian minorities.

Everyone should remember that ITTL Mussolini was killed in 1936 - Balbo is the one in charge until 1978.

I will say that the big connection between fascism and the church is MOSTLY IN AUSTRIA. It is a unique quirk of Austrofascism and other ideologies like Falangism, but not in Italian fascism. That said, the fascists did not pursue state atheism because they relied on support from monarchists and other traditionalists who WERE pro-catholic. ITTL there is an undercurrent of pro-catholic and traditionalism in Italian fascism, but it emerges later (in the 80s, 90s) as traditional fascism "lost" and tried to reform its image.

 

[RedLegion]

AFAIK he didn't "support" jews, he was just passively OK with them.

I just want to say that while Mussolini didn't particularly care for the Jews, he initially supported the idea of Israel as a way to weaken the British empire.
In 1934 Fascist Italy supported the creation of the Betar Naval Academy in Civitavecchia, were the first officers of the future Israeli navy were trained and apparently the cadets were often vocally supportive of Mussolini and the regime.
Obviously, after the alliance with Nazi Germany Mussolini became more and more anti-Semite and the academy was closed in 1938.

Italian fascists generally didn't care too much about religion and supported whoever they thought could be an ally. In Abyssinia, they empowered the lower class Muslims to the detriment of the Coptic Christians simply because the Christians were loyal to the Negus.

A quote from the official publication of the Italian professional maritime schools, "In agreement of all the relevant authorities it has been confirmed that the views and the political and social inclinations of the Revisionists are known and that they are absolutely in accordance with the fascist doctrine. Therefore, as our students they will bring the Italian and fascist culture to Palestine."

 

[TickTock The Witch's Dead]

Support for Zionism? Mussolini? I doubt he cared much about Jews, to be honest. Sure, jews were allowed to be blackshirts and in the party but that was more because here in Italy there wasn't much antisemitism as in central and eastern Europe (there were moments sadly, but nothing like the rest of Europe, at least in the last 2 or 3 centuries)

His support for Israel honestly depends on his relations with the arab world and Italy's political independence from Washington.

He tried several times to gain arab and islamic support and I doubt that he will try to help France in Algeria or Israel unless he is already considered an enemy from the Arab World. And a Mediterranean Conservative Power will be more appealing than the atheist Soviet Union or the Capitalist US to the Arab World (or at least Mussolini and successors would think like that).

I can see him supporting the Maronites in Lebanon, but that is the extent I see him "helping" the Pope. He was, after all, a staunch Atheist and wouldn't throw away relations with the Middle East for some christian minorities.

AFAIK he didn't "support" jews, he was just passively OK with them. This took the form of
1. If the jews want to assimilate into Italian society, this is perfect - more Italians (early Italian fascism was very pro-assimilation, based around a republican idea of nationality)
2. If they don't want to assimilate, they should get out (ie go to Palestine or some other "jewish homeland" - a lot of Nazis supported this idea early on as well)

I didn't think about this but I will be adding it now haha.

I don't think a Coptic ethnostate is possible, even if forced from above by an invader. Regarding fundamentalist movements, I don't think there's enough motivation for Italy to do that, but I can see Italy and the Vatican sponsoring a lot of Christian groups - which could lead to more tension.

Interesting - I hadn't thought about how Assyrians might be impacted! However, I think them getting anything further than an autonomous region (like Iraqi Kurdistan) is extremely unlikely. Washington threw the Kurds under the bus repeatedly despite all the help that was given, so I doubt they would allow a violation of Iraq's territorial integrity.

Italy is indeed going to be anti-Turkey. I think I stated before, but Italy supports the Greek dicatorship's invasion of Cyprus.

Kind of true, but it was more a revival of an old partition plan of Syria. Revived because the French were looking for some way to get a European-aligned state out of decolonisation. The loss of ports would have also severely weakened Syria.

This ultimately didn't happen, and the Alawites got a lot of concessions. Add to that, they were much better off than most of Syria, so the Alawites ended up forming a kind of elite in the new Syria (the Al Assad family is Alawite).

Thanks
It's nice to know people appreciate it.

Yes, exactly.

Yes exactly, the whole "Sword of Islam" thing is a hilarious example of Mussolini's attempts to get Arab support. ITTL Italy keeps trying to get Arabs on-side but fails similarly to OTL. Italy switches support to Israel as a result of a few factors:
1. USSR and Arab states put pressure on Italy to relinquish Libya (unimaginable as the territory is a massive source of oil and oil revenue)
2. US supports Italy insofaras they are a wall against communism
3. Israel encapsulates "the enemy of my enemy is my friend" (Arabs hate Israel, Arabs hate Italy --> Italy and Israel should team up)

The last point also leads to Italy backing the far right in Israel.

Everyone should remember that ITTL Mussolini was killed in 1936 - Balbo is the one in charge until 1978.

I will say that the big connection between fascism and the church is MOSTLY IN AUSTRIA. It is a unique quirk of Austrofascism and other ideologies like Falangism, but not in Italian fascism. That said, the fascists did not pursue state atheism because they relied on support from monarchists and other traditionalists who WERE pro-catholic. ITTL there is an undercurrent of pro-catholic and traditionalism in Italian fascism, but it emerges later (in the 80s, 90s) as traditional fascism "lost" and tried to reform its image.

I just want to say that while Mussolini didn't particularly care for the Jews, he initially supported the idea of Israel as a way to weaken the British empire.
In 1934 Fascist Italy supported the creation of the Betar Naval Academy in Civitavecchia, were the first officers of the future Israeli navy were trained and apparently the cadets were often vocally supportive of Mussolini and the regime.
Obviously, after the alliance with Nazi Germany Mussolini became more and more anti-Semite and the academy was closed in 1938.

Italian fascists generally didn't care too much about religion and supported whoever they thought could be an ally. In Abyssinia, they empowered the lower class Muslims to the detriment of the Coptic Christians simply because the Christians were loyal to the Negus.

A quote from the official publication of the Italian professional maritime schools, "In agreement of all the relevant authorities it has been confirmed that the views and the political and social inclinations of the Revisionists are known and that they are absolutely in accordance with the fascist doctrine. Therefore, as our students they will bring the Italian and fascist culture to Palestine."

Regarding Mussolini, fair enough. I suppose I don't know enough about him. Part of where I got my impression on him was from Footprints of Mussolini.

 

[PolishMagnet]

I just want to say that while Mussolini didn't particularly care for the Jews, he initially supported the idea of Israel as a way to weaken the British empire.
In 1934 Fascist Italy supported the creation of the Betar Naval Academy in Civitavecchia, were the first officers of the future Israeli navy were trained and apparently the cadets were often vocally supportive of Mussolini and the regime.

Very interesting! Thanks for sharing.

 

[Mitridates the Great]

Regarding Mussolini, fair enough. I suppose I don't know enough about him. Part of where I got my impression on him was from Footprints of Mussolini.

Remember that part of Footprint of Mussolini's POD is that he becomes so pro-Jewish that he goes so far as to nuking the Middle East just because he believed that was the only way to guarantee Israel's security. When OTL's Mussolini probably wouldn't have done that (not for Israel at least).

 

[TickTock The Witch's Dead]

Remember that part of Footprint of Mussolini's POD is that he becomes so pro-Jewish that he goes so far as to nuking the Middle East just because he believed that was the only way to guarantee Israel's security. When OTL's Mussolini probably wouldn't have done that (not for Israel at least).

Yeah I got that so mixed up lol.

 

[thezerech]

Mussolini did have links to Revisionist Zionism, but obviously was happy to send the Jews to death camps a few years later. Balbo's record is better than Mussolini's, but I'd hardly say he'd be a dyed in the wool philosemitr, but ITTL could be reasonably sympathetic generally to Revisionist Zionism and interested in undermining British rule in Egypt and the Mandate.

Italian Jewry has an interesting history for sure, associated heavily with Italian nationalism and unification. In this timeline, where Italy's relationship with the emerging Arab world is negative, because they're trying to hold onto Libya, which probably basically means no positive relations with any Arab states at all forever, Israel is a natural ally. It's France if it never left Algeria.

If the Betar Naval Academy never gets shut down, or if Balbo expands it, that could be interesting. I'm currently trying to find information on Italian training camps in Sicily where Ustasha and OUN members (the latter of who got sent to Manchuria to form an OUN cell there) trained together in the 1930s. ITTL I could definitely see Irgun getting trained in Italy, although alongside the Ustasha it could be somewhat awkward.

 

[NorthshorePhilo]

I wonder if there would be any cooperation between Libyan and Palestinian resistance groups. They have remarkably similar circumstances and they both of Egypt right next to them the perfect place to hide and get supplies from.

 

[Whiteshore]

I wonder if there would be any cooperation between Libyan and Palestinian resistance groups. They have remarkably similar circumstances and they both of Egypt right next to them the perfect place to hide and get supplies from.

And on that note, during the days of Nasser, I could totally see propaganda his regime uses equate the struggles of Libya and Palestine (just don't ask what Nasser did to the All-Palestine Government) and argue that it is the sacred duty of Egypt to support both for the liberation of Arabs.

 

[RedLegion]

In this timeline, where Italy's relationship with the emerging Arab world is negative, because they're trying to hold onto Libya, which probably basically means no positive relations with any Arab states at all forever, Israel is a natural ally.

A thing to consider is that if Balbo never allies with the Nazis and keep supporting Zionism, Italy will become, de facto, Israel oldest supporter and ally. A fascist (or fascist inspired so right wing, conservative and militaristic) party could become a staple of Israel politics in the same way lots of democracies had active and powerful communist parties.
Another possible problem (and I know it's a thorny issue considering the actual political situation) is that Italy support could cause a faster resurgence of anti-Semitism. Many accuse Israel of colonialism IRL, add a close relationship with a fascist, colonialist power and is easy to believe that some people will start to call Israel a fascist state. And Britain government will be disinclined to crack down on anti-Semitism, as long as it thinks that Israel is a ploy to weaken the empire.

On a lighter side, I like to imagine that the Israeli armed forces, similar to the Chilean who cosplay as Prussians, will keep a fascist looking dress uniform (fez, black shirts and roman salute) long after the end of fascism in Italy.
Just to make the Italians hideously embarrassed everytime they see them during a state visit.

 

[NorthshorePhilo]

This is gonna sound very weird and nerdy but I wonder what the demographic of the fascist bloc are like. Decades under far right heavily Catholic political regimes must of lead to highly elevated births rates. Sure they would probably start to collapse as fascism goes out of style. But Much of Europe probably had highly elevated birth rates compared to IRl.

 

[TickTock The Witch's Dead]

I wonder if there would be any cooperation between Libyan and Palestinian resistance groups. They have remarkably similar circumstances and they both of Egypt right next to them the perfect place to hide and get supplies from.

Absolutely. Their struggles are not too different and will easily bond over Arab nationalism. Algeria is one country I can see funding the Libyan struggle as a former victim of settler colonialism.

 

[thezerech]

A thing to consider is that if Balbo never allies with the Nazis and keep supporting Zionism, Italy will become, de facto, Israel oldest supporter and ally. A fascist (or fascist inspired so right wing, conservative and militaristic) party could become a staple of Israel politics in the same way lots of democracies had active and powerful communist parties.
Another possible problem (and I know it's a thorny issue considering the actual political situation) is that Italy support could cause a faster resurgence of anti-Semitism. Many accuse Israel of colonialism IRL, add a close relationship with a fascist, colonialist power and is easy to believe that some people will start to call Israel a fascist state. And Britain government will be disinclined to crack down on anti-Semitism, as long as it thinks that Israel is a ploy to weaken the empire.

On a lighter side, I like to imagine that the Israeli armed forces, similar to the Chilean who cosplay as Prussians, will keep a fascist looking dress uniform (fez, black shirts and roman salute) long after the end of fascism in Italy.
Just to make the Italians hideously embarrassed everytime they see them during a state visit.

I would be careful in suggesting the actual Revisionist movement was fascistic. It was right wing, but Begin never tried to centralize power in Israel and Jabotinsky seems to have been committed to Western style democracy, even if he was a territorial maximalist and virulently anti-communist. Indeed at Betar, leadership went to great pains to not associate too much with local Italian politics. Some of the students did sympathize with Italian fascism, but a handful of cadets in what will end up being Israel's least significant military branch will not fundamentally change the political character of the Yishuv.

If somehow (and this would be extremely unlikely) Yair Stern comes to power, than yeah, that'll be different but iotl the Lehi only had max a couple hundred dedicated members, if that. Even after assassinating Lord Moyne, the British didn't bother going after Lehi because they weren't viewed as a threat.

Long term demographics will be interesting. I'm a imagining the Holocaust doesn't kill as many Jews? I don't remember to what extent WW2 timeline was specified. Israeli Jews are mostly Mizrahi, i.e. middle Eastern Jews, not Ashkenazim. I know that Mizrahi Jews tended to be more right-wing. Mizrahi Jews didn't become a majority until they were all forced to leave Arab countries after '48, although of course, Mizrahi Jews were always in Israel and made up most of the old Yishuv. While Revisionism was growing in popularity in Eastern Europe, especially in Poland and Latvia, for example, but I think overall most of the population was favorable to left wing factions, so if more Jews survive the Holocaust I would guess Ben-Gurion is in a better position vis a vis the right.

If Britain fully repudiates the Balfour Declaration though, Begin's hardline resistance against Britain will become naturally more popular. I think it would really depend on Britain's actions how post independence Israel looks politically. A Revisionist dictatorship doesn't seem like a likely possibility in my opinion without Britain fully stabbing the Jews in the back.

 

[ChrisTheCat]

Can't wait to read (and see, been loving the maps and graphics) about Italy itself soon! I hope things are coming along well.
I imagine possible topics in the Italian leg of this journey may include: relationships between church and state or the role of the monarchy since the fall of fascism; the north-south divide (something tells me this hasn't changed much, though the addition of Libya would change what is considered 'south'); the Mafia and how they have been cracked down on (or not); long-term effects of cultural assimilation programs and their place in modern Italy; fascist nostalgia and/or Balbo personality cultism; maybe even government attempts to rehabilitate Italy's international image? Excited regardless!

By the way, what's the status of the (I'm assuming) former Soviet Union? Similar positions to IRL? Better off? Worse?

 

[PolishMagnet]

Can't wait to read (and see, been loving the maps and graphics) about Italy itself soon! I hope things are coming along well.
I imagine possible topics in the Italian leg of this journey may include: relationships between church and state or the role of the monarchy since the fall of fascism; the north-south divide (something tells me this hasn't changed much, though the addition of Libya would change what is considered 'south'); the Mafia and how they have been cracked down on (or not); long-term effects of cultural assimilation programs and their place in modern Italy; fascist nostalgia and/or Balbo personality cultism; maybe even government attempts to rehabilitate Italy's international image? Excited regardless!

By the way, what's the status of the (I'm assuming) former Soviet Union? Similar positions to IRL? Better off? Worse?

you got most of the planned topics spot-on haha

Former Soviet Union is a bit messier. So far, the only thing I've settled on is that Italy supplied weapons to the Chechens in the first and second Chechen wars, leading to them being de facto independent.

 

[Whiteshore]

So far, the only thing I've settled on is that Italy supplied weapons to the Chechens in the first and second Chechen wars, leading to them being de facto independent.

I assume the Russian Federation is constantly vetoing efforts to get them to be allowed to join the UN? And on that note, how much international recognition does the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria have by 2014 here?

 

[PolishMagnet]

I assume the Russian Federation is constantly vetoing efforts to get them to be allowed to join the UN?

yep

how much international recognition does the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria have by 2014 here?

Just Italy and friends - US was passively against it but didn't do anything to stop it. Some "italian-leaning" states (ie catholic, anti-russian) recognise them, like Poland and Spain.

Sorry for lack of updates lately, been busy with work and writer's block.

 

[thezerech]

Independent Ichkeria because of Italian fascist aid is something I did not know I needed in my life, but I certainly do need it.

 

[Symeon20]

I don't know very much about the Chechen wars, but with Italy helping them so much and other catholic countries being the only ones to recognize them, how are relations between Islamists and the Catholic World? Would the terror bombings not happen in Spain? Or the Italy's control of Libya and support of Israel means that they are targeted more?