1. Taking Moscow. Not only extremely unlikely, but also a good way to have Stalingrad x10 happen a lot earlier if it actually does. Also, depends on what other operations you're not committing to if you're committing to taking Moscow. So what are you giving up? Kiev? Crimea? Leningrad? Which armies are the Soviets pulling back for the counter-offensive?
2. Far Eastern Divisions: almost no impact at all. They were at full strength the entire war, and expanded in 42 and again in 44/45. They took some officers, equipment and logistics units from them and transferred the Pacific naval infantry, yes. But the Japanese army is so poor (and the Soviets know this) that they can do the same again and still achieve victory in defense. The rest of the '41 divisions were mostly from European Russia and the Urals, put together in Kazakhstan.
Some Transbaikal units were transferred over the course of the year, but that's Irkutsk, not Ulan Ude/Vladivostok. So Japan declaring war on USSR during Barbarossa - is bad for Japan. Moscow will not fall because of that.
3. LL: extremely important in mid-late '43, made Bagration possible the way it was carried out. Saved a lot of people from starvation. Some impact in '41, yes. About the same as Soviet help to KMT in the prior years in terms of scale (so not decisive). So Moscow will not fall because of that either.
4. No western Front: important but the units it would have freed up would still need oil, food and railways, none of which were adequate in German-controlled Soviet territory. Not a huge factor in '41.
5. Luftwaffe: by '44 the skies were dominated by the VVS. Here is where Western help really did mater. They brought the Aerocobras, the high-octane fuel, and even some structural materials. Would the USSR contest the skies without it? Yes. It just might not be dominant.
However, that's a deep POD that has more to do with taking out the Western Allies altogether.
I think even OTL achievements of the German attack were way out of the ordinary, and on most replays they wouldn't achieve even that much success. So doing better is even more unlikely. I would even say that for all intents and purposes, a clear military victory by Germany can be considered impossible, though a political one (USSR blinks, leadership panics worse than OTL) might be workable.
Of course if you go into negotiated peace territory, then the whole Hitler being Hitler, Nazis being Nazis, and German army in general having nothing but contempt for their counterparts comes into play. War with USSR until complete triumph is the raison d'etre for everything they did up to that point.
If they won't make peace, and a real military victory is extremely unlikely...what realistic victory scenarios are there?
Also: without USSR in the picture, the Western Allies are going to have a very tough time. Until nukes are developed, at least.