Is it plausible for the Soviets to be defeated - WW2

[CharlesMartell]

Well in OTL the Germans made it to the outskirts of Moscow.
The lead elements even reached some of the outer Metro line stations if I remember rightly.

And that was after Hitler placed a huge speed bump in Army Group Central's plans by diverting them south to Kiev at one point.

I think the consensus of expert opinion is that if Army Group Central had been allowed to pursue their original plan they would have reached Moscow before winter. They might well have been engaged in a Stalingrad style street fight when they tried to take the city. In any event Moscow would have been rendered unusable as a Soviet command center.

Considering the genocidal behavior of the Nazis in the east, I don't think the Russians would have any option but to fight on, maybe withdrawing to the Urals and drawing a new line of defense there. Who knows.
Britain/USA might be more circumspect about giving valuable military equipment to the Russians under that scenario.

I think the parallel with the Chinese Nationalist could be a very valid one.

 

[CharlesMartell]

Re Japan attacking Siberia

Very unlikely.

1) The Japanese army was thoroughly defeated in their 1939 battles with the Soviets. The Kwantung army had no desire to repeat the experience.

2) Siberia in 1941 didn't contain any of the things that the Japanese really needed, like oil production.

3) Japanese army was stretched thin already, fighting the Chinese and provisioning for the wider Pacific war.

 

[RGB]

Winter 1941 Soviet counteroffensive that "saved" Moscow: It only succeeded because the Nazis were freezing to death in their summer uniforms and were grotesquely undersupplied. More Germans died in the late 1941/early 1942 counterattacks from disease, starvation, and hypothermia than the Red Army.

And conversely, rapid German gains only happened because the entire Red Army was not positioned correctly and the spare parts were not reaching the machines that made war. Whoop-de-do. If they couldn't do it, they couldn't do it, all excuses aside. If you go into Russia expecting no winter, you deserve what's coming, and what's coming is unavoidable.

So by your logic, the defense of Moscow was always going to work (WINTER MAGIC!), and STAVKA probably didn't need the bulk of the army there. Excellent argument for Soviet invincibility, by the by.

Late 1942 counteroffensive against Case Blue and encirclement of Sixth Army: It only succeeded because (a) once more, the Nazis went in undersupplied and unprepared for winter, and (b) the drawing off of Luftwaffe power enabled the Soviet siege. It was still a pretty close battle, and 100 Ju52s that got sent to Torch might have made all the difference in the world.

For Want of a Nail, Guderian wouldn't be writing self-serving memoirs. Gotcha.

Of course Stalin made lots of mistakes; where did I deny that? If he hadn't had purged the entire Red military and sent a sixth of the SU's adult population to the gulags in the decade preceding WWII, of course the Nazis wouldn't have been able to get as far as they did.

At this point I know I'm dealing with someone who is irrational and has no command of the numbers involved, which should explain what you "believe" about the Eastern Front's share of German manpower. Do the numbers yourself and tell me if they have any meaning to you. The statistics are easily available.

I think the consensus of expert opinion is that if Army Group Central had been allowed to pursue their original plan they would have reached Moscow before winter. They might well have been engaged in a Stalingrad style street fight when they tried to take the city. In any event Moscow would have been rendered unusable as a Soviet command center.

I have never seen such a consensus at all. Please point to it.

 

[MattII]

I think the consensus of expert opinion is that if Army Group Central had been allowed to pursue their original plan they would have reached Moscow before winter. They might well have been engaged in a Stalingrad style street fight when they tried to take the city. In any event Moscow would have been rendered unusable as a Soviet command center.

And Kiev would have held out, putting AGS in no position to make any sort of push whatsoever on the oil-fields. In fact things might have been better overall if they hadn't diverted the Panzers back to AGC, that way they'd have been able to push south faster, especially as they'd have the ability to move stuff via sea as well as land.

 

[RGB]

And Kiev would have held out, putting AGS in no position to make any sort of push whatsoever on the oil-fields. In fact things might have been better overall if they hadn't diverted the Panzers back to AGC, that way they'd have been able to push south faster, especially as they'd have the ability to move stuff via sea as well as land.

Basically. To even get to Moscow, you need to give up somewhere else. Rostov, or Kiev, or Leningrad. Somewhere. No drive to the Volga, no drive to the oil.

And the road was open (especially after Kiev) and the temptation was just too great.

And even if you get to Moscow (according to some people in this thread at least) General Winter means you're in for the long haul anyway. General Winter and several million Soviets-at-Arms.

 

[General Mosh]

Re Japan attacking Siberia

Very unlikely.

1) The Japanese army was thoroughly defeated in their 1939 battles with the Soviets. The Kwantung army had no desire to repeat the experience.

2) Siberia in 1941 didn't contain any of the things that the Japanese really needed, like oil production.

3) Japanese army was stretched thin already, fighting the Chinese and provisioning for the wider Pacific war.

There was a very large movement in the Jap leadership to attack the Sovs instead of the Amis. Look it up. Tojo supported it, and I believe even Yamamoto spoke of it as an option. They had a finalized war plan all ready to go, which would have made heavy use of tanks and naval aviation. Also, it would have only been geared at the Maritime Province (Vladivostok and surrounding area), not all of Siberia.

 

[Herzen's love-child]

There was a very large movement in the Jap leadership to attack the Sovs instead of the Amis. Look it up. Tojo supported it, and I believe even Yamamoto spoke of it as an option. They had a finalized war plan all ready to go, which would have made heavy use of tanks and naval aviation. Also, it would have only been geared at the Maritime Province (Vladivostok and surrounding area), not all of Siberia.

Have you looked at what the Japanese Army had in the way of tanks compared to the Soviet Union? Not to talk about their antiquated armored warfare doctrine. Only one of many reasons why the Japanese would have been curbstomped if they had tried.

By all means read up on the Japanese defeat by the Soviets at Khalkhyn Gol.

 

[RGB]

Have you looked at what the Japanese Army had in the way of tanks compared to the Soviet Union? Not to talk about their antiquated armored warfare doctrine. Only one of many reasons why the Japanese would have been curbstomped if they had tried.

By all means read up on the Japanese defeat by the Soviets at Khalkhyn Gol.

The Japanese (according to their own memoirs of the events) never seemed to realise when they were being lured into launching night attacks into empty trenches that had arty trained on them. An entire division spent weeks dealing with "major enemy forces" which consisted of one Local Defense District and a unit of Mongolian cavalry (ca. 700 men in total).

They let Zhukov amass a crazy amount of troops and firepower using logistics that required five-day one-way trips. They even managed to squander the initial air superiority completely and started taking much heavier tactical losses towards the end of the infamous affair.

In all these misadventures, they were commanded by their staff's Soviet-direction expert.

Japan on the offensive, will not do well. It's guaranteed.

 

[ObssesedNuker]

Winter 1941 Soviet counteroffensive that "saved" Moscow: It only succeeded because the Nazis were freezing to death in their summer uniforms and were grotesquely undersupplied. More Germans died in the late 1941/early 1942 counterattacks from disease, starvation, and hypothermia than the Red Army.

And it was only prevented from becoming an even worse disaster for the Germans thanks to Stalin jumping-the-gun and ordering a front-wide offensive that diluted Soviet assets.

And that was after Hitler placed a huge speed bump in Army Group Central's plans by diverting them south to Kiev at one point.

A diversion that eliminated large Soviet forces on the Army Group Center's strategic right flank, denied the Soviets important industrial regions, and allowed AGC's almost-at-the-breaking-point supply lines to catch up so that the Panzers would be able to have the needed fuel and ammo for Operation Typhoon.

I think the consensus of expert opinion is that if Army Group Central had been allowed to pursue their original plan they would have reached Moscow before winter.

Actually, the consensus of expert opinions is that the German supply lines would have snapped under the strain of sustaining further eastward momentum without any time to catch up and in turn AGC would have ground itself to death against the Soviet forces as their tanks ran out of fuel, ammo, and food. Basically what happened in the last week of November, where one could quite clearly see German momentum collapse.

In the mean time, the Soviet forces in and around Kiev are able to reorganize and re-equip while the Soviets are able to further exploit the industry of the Ukraine. And let us not forget that AGC's bogging down means no Vyazma pocket in addition to no Kiev pocket, giving the Soviets at least another 500,000 troops they lost historically. This leaves the Germans even worse off then IOTL when winter closes in, as by that point they are just as weak as IOTL, but further from Moscow and with their main forces having an extremely exposed right flank, while the Soviets are actually stronger by virtue of more forces that have been able to regroup.

There was a very large movement in the Jap leadership to attack the Sovs instead of the Amis.

In addition to what is said above, a word of warning: "Jap" is a racial slur for Japanese just like "Chink" is for Chinese or "Nigger" for Blacks. The use of racial slurs* on this board is a bannable offense on this board so just a friendly warning to watch out for that...

*Well, obviously except when pointing it out the rule to a potentially unaware poster.

 

[KACKO]

And that was after Hitler placed a huge speed bump in Army Group Central's plans by diverting them south to Kiev at one point.
I think the consensus of expert opinion is that if Army Group Central had been allowed to pursue their original plan they would have reached Moscow before winter. They might well have been engaged in a Stalingrad style street fight when they tried to take the city. In any event Moscow would have been rendered unusable as a Soviet command center.

So no Kiev in 1941, sent all mobile forces to Center and ride them on Mosow? Well, then you got whole Soviet Southern front hitting army Center.

 

[MalcontentRex]

So by your logic, the defense of Moscow was always going to work (WINTER MAGIC!), and STAVKA probably didn't need the bulk of the army there. Excellent argument for Soviet invincibility, by the by.

Are you denying that the Nazis were freezing and starving to death around Moscow due to being completely unequipped for the Russian winter?

At this point I know I'm dealing with someone who is irrational and has no command of the numbers involved, which should explain what you "believe" about the Eastern Front's share of German manpower. Do the numbers yourself and tell me if they have any meaning to you. The statistics are easily available.

Nice way to refute me... you are insulting me because I'm acknowledging the severity of Stalin's genocides when it came to SU military readiness? Granted, I am lumping a lot of different deaths into that figure (i.e. Holodomor, the late '30s purges proper, various massacres in occupied countries such as Katyn, etc), but the undeniably obvious fact is that not only did Stalin kill off hundreds of capable and talented military minds, but millions of men that would have been useful to have under arms.

 

[MalcontentRex]

And it was only prevented from becoming an even worse disaster for the Germans thanks to Stalin jumping-the-gun and ordering a front-wide offensive that diluted Soviet assets.

At the end of 1941, the bulk of the Red Army was still poorly-trained and led. Stalin could have sent two divisions in to attack the Nazis around Moscow or two hundred. At that point, the Soviets were still dying like flies in human-wave assaults because officers and generals that had the ability to put together more intelligent attacks than that had been killed off a few years before Barbarossa. It is true that the Moscow Wehrmacht salient came close to total collapse at this time--but due to the elements and disease like typhus, not because Stalin's crack reserve troops saved the day.

The Soviet Army of late 1941 was not elite by any stretch of the imagination. The Soviet Army of late 1942 was not even elite. Even nearly a year and a half after the Moscow counteroffensive the Red Army was still being eaten alive (i.e. Kharkov). The first time when a truly skilled, formidable, highly-trained Red Army hit the battlefield in a meaningful way was at Kursk--more than two years after the start of Barbarossa. Was this the result of Stalin's psychotic paranoia? Yes. Does it really matter? No; he and the rest of the USSR would be up crap creek with no paddle without western fronts/Luftwaffe drawdowns/tremendous amounts of Lend-Lease.

 

[sloreck]

Moscow was the rail and administrative hub of a very centralized USSR. While administrators could be moved, the rail net could not and not all the bureaucrats and their typewriters and files etc could be moved even if the USSR had tried. If you need troops, use those aimed at Leningrad (or at least a bunch of them). If you take Moscow, at least enough of it to stop rail traffic you pretty much isolate Leningrad from outside supplies (assuming the Finns do what they did OTL).

The oil coming from the south has a very hard time getting to troops west of Moscow now, and likewise manufactured goods from relocated factories to the south/southwest. Do note that relocating the governmental/bureaucratic apparatus east from Moscow means choices need to be made vis a vis factories vs bureaucrats. Depending on stop lines by winter, such LL from UK/USA that came in to Archangelsk or Murmansk may have a hard time getting anywhere.

All of this makes a Soviet rebound much more difficult, and may have political ramifications in the USSR. If the Russians are in such a bad way on 12/7/41, there may be some significant pushback on LL to the USSR - "why throw stuff we need to the commies who are losing anyways" - and of course now the only route for LL is transpacific on Soviet ships.

IMHO to do this takes better planning on the part of the Germans in several dimensions. First, making Moscow the main prize and being willing to use other army groups to protect flanks and gain what they can but not drain from the main chance. Second, have some appreciation that the USSR may not fold right away so think about at least one winter campaign - if for no other reason than geography. Thirdly, pay more attention to logistics - especially have units of RR troops and plans to regauge USSR RRs because RRS are the ONLY way to move lots of supplies in the USSR.

IF the Germans are going to defeat the USSR, and by this I mean getting a Brest-Litovsk II or getting to the Urals not all of the USSR, they have to do it within the first 18 months or so. After that, between the USSR ramping back up, LL, and having to deal with increasing pressure elsewhere from the USA & UK in many ways they are totally screwed.

Of course doing things like treating the Ukranians and Byelorussians half decently (even if they were going to be screwed later on), etc would help too but thats asking too much of the Nazis....

 

[Ward]

In what way might they blunder? And also, how important do you think the 20 or so Far East divisions were in the west?

The Siberian Inf Divs were larger then the Western USSR Divisions and better trained they were worth 60 of the Normal Rifle Divisions because the had Trained Field Grade Officers who were not purged in the 1930's .

 

[KACKO]

Even nearly a year and a half after the Moscow counteroffensive the Red Army was still being eaten alive (i.e. Kharkov). The first time when a truly skilled, formidable, highly-trained Red Army hit the battlefield in a meaningful way was at Kursk--more than two years after the start of Barbarossa. Was this the result of Stalin's psychotic paranoia? Yes. Does it really matter? No; he and the rest of the USSR would be up crap creek with no paddle without western fronts/

Well, Khakov 1943. Soviet extended themselves there same way as Germans did at Moscow or Stalingrad. Soviet division there were according to some sources on 1/3 of their strength. so technically, they were not eaten alive, there were already 2/3 death.
As to other. Without LL and West fighting, Soviets may loose. Without Soviets fighting, West could hardly win. 2/3 of German land forces were inflicted at East. In Sobiet Union Germany lost around 11000 Aircrafts.

Now look at it from other side.
At West Luftwaffe lost around 35000 (in air and on ground app half/ half). but for that Western Allies paid horrible price. Around 40000 planes and 160000 airmen. What would happen, if Germans didn't loose 11000 planes at East? If they had resources available which went into producing tanks, artillery etc for Eastern front? And what if all this usefull 88 mm wouldn't be needed against Soviet tanks? What if all this resorces for artillery production for Eastern front could go to produce AA artillery for Defense of Fatherland?

As somebody said, WWII was team effort.

 

[KACKO]

The Siberian Inf Divs were larger then the Western USSR Divisions and better trained they were worth 60 of the Normal Rifle Divisions because the had Trained Field Grade Officers who were not purged in the 1930's .

Only 14 divisions were transferred from behind Ural to Western USSR. From these only 4 went to areas around Moscow? From these only two had bigger numbers of Sibeians and one started to formed in March 1941. As somebody said here already. Far East was hold on almost full strength through the war.

And actually, we discussed this while ago. I posted some info on Far East strength and transfers through the war.

(Edited): I did some comparison of one of these division comming from East to Moscow deffense lines, one which actually was Siberian. 32nd Rifle Division. It had 3 Infantry Regiments and 2 artillery regiments. In Comparison, 8th Rile Div., fighting at front from start of Barbarossa had also 3 infantry regiments and 2 artillery.

Not sure if later Soviet didn't cut that to 2 infantry 1 artillery. But strength myth about so cooled Siberian divisons could be influenced because they were fresh. Older divisions had already big losses which were not filled.

Actually. Soviets do have interesting term for their divisions numbering during war. XY Rifle Division of 1st, 2nd etc forming. So basically it evoke feeling, like division were used till they couldn't fight anymore and then reform from new reservists.

 

[MattII]

If you need troops, use those aimed at Leningrad (or at least a bunch of them). If you take Moscow, at least enough of it to stop rail traffic you pretty much isolate Leningrad from outside supplies (assuming the Finns do what they did OTL).

Well, except from Murmansk and Archangesk.

The oil coming from the south has a very hard time getting to troops west of Moscow now, and likewise manufactured goods from relocated factories to the south/southwest.

Troops west of Moscow? If you've taken the city you can guarantee that there's going to be no troops alive west of Moscow.

Depending on stop lines by winter, such LL from UK/USA that came in to Archangelsk or Murmansk may have a hard time getting anywhere.

Except that there was a railway running from Archangesk to Kirov.

If the Russians are in such a bad way on 12/7/41, there may be some significant pushback on LL to the USSR - "why throw stuff we need to the commies who are losing anyways"...

Well, except that anyone who studies history knows that Moscow is a very tempting target, but also a very dumb one, taking Moscow requires a big army, but a big army requires a lot of food and supplies, so anyone seeking to hold the city needs to be really sure of their supply lines.

[/quote]- and of course now the only route for LL is transpacific on Soviet ships.[/quote]And Iran, and via the back route that bypasses Moscow.

 

[KACKO]

Thirdly, pay more attention to logistics - especially have units of RR troops and plans to regauge USSR RRs because RRS are the ONLY way to move lots of supplies in the USSR.

Of course doing things like treating the Ukranians and Byelorussians half decently (even if they were going to be screwed later on), etc would help too but thats asking too much of the Nazis....

Well, Germans were ragauging Soviet RR. Just there is a problem. Did you see map of Soviet railway network from around 1941? I have picture somewhere in my PC, needed it while ago exactly for that. More Railway lines to the front. Well bed Luke. Not so much of them going west-east direction sufficiently supply troops. After you got it to the end of line, you need to load it to trucks.

As to treating Ukrainians, Russian etc decently. Nazis were stupid. Ukrainians declared independence after Germans entered in. Let them have. And also Lithuanians, Estonians, Latvians etc. Just sent troops to front (there was plenty of captured weapons). They don't need to be told they are only cannonfoder. Only problem is, that will put even bigger strain on German logistic.

 

[Dan]

Thinking about it at silly o'clock in the morning before work, I suspect that with a couple of fairly epic butterflies you could blow the Germans into Moscow.
The first is that the Purges make their way to the far east too, and that Zhukov is amongst them.
IOTL He was pretty safe until after the war, but the right/wrong whispered word into Beria or Stalin's ear and Zhukov becomes one of those generals we discuss in threads entitled "Is it Plausable for the Soviets to defeat the Germans", and the rest of us laughing at how absurd that is.
If the purges make their way to the far east and the officer corps there is similarly decimated, then the quality of leadership accross the board is reduced. Unfortunately, at this point the butterflies are looking similar in broad description to interstellar winged mamals. It does on the other hand, provide ammunition for anyone looking to unseat Stalin until around December '41.

The second major Butterfly, (and this one appears to not only be interstellar, resemble a winged mamal, but potentially have somewhat anti-authoritarian leanings), is that rather than joining the Infantry, Hitler joins a quartermasters unit. This wouldn't affect his other personality traits, he'd still be an anally retentive control freak with a head full of bad wiring, but would be obsessed with logistics instead lightning strikes.
Upshot is that while the German advance is slower, it is much better supplied. Less starvation among the German forces, (occupied people on the otherhand would probably be worse), and less freezing to death, (more likely overheating in the summer).

Total defeat and occupation of the Soviet Union, by sheer dint of it's size and population IS impossible. However, military defeat is entirely plausable, especially as in the first few months, the Soviets would feel defeated by the scale of the German victories.

 

[KACKO]

Thinking about it at silly o'clock in the morning before work, I suspect that with a couple of fairly epic butterflies you could blow the Germans into Moscow.
The first is that the Purges make their way to the far east too, and that Zhukov is amongst them.
IOTL He was pretty safe until after the war, but the right/wrong whispered word into Beria or Stalin's ear and Zhukov becomes one of those generals we discuss in threads entitled "Is it Plausable for the Soviets to defeat the Germans", and the rest of us laughing at how absurd that is.
If the purges make their way to the far east and the officer corps there is similarly decimated, then the quality of leadership accross the board is reduced. Unfortunately, at this point the butterflies are looking similar in broad description to interstellar winged mamals. It does on the other hand, provide ammunition for anyone looking to unseat Stalin until around December '41.

Zhukov was at west when purges started.

As to Far east command. It was actually purged significantly. 1200 senior and 3000 junior officers were arrested. Far East lost 40% of regimental commanders,
70% of Division and Corps Commanders and 80% of it's stuff officers.

Vasilij BljucheR Commander Of Far East Army was arrested and killed.