The Allies will be in for a bloodbath. What is the state of the Kriegsmarine at this moment, and can the AG Kaukasus do anything to attack Allied interests by going into Iran and Iraq? Also, would Turkey join the Axis now?
Fallen on the March - the world after a German victory at Stalingrad
- Thread starter Onkel Willie
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Promise them Syria, Lebanon and maybe some concessions in the caucasus and Iran, that would be enought I think
Turkey won't join the Axis until the Heer is marching over the Hindu Kush and the Ruwenzori. In short: when Germany doesn't need them any longer.
Interesting...
I'm no expert on the eastern front, and can't judge it well, but it sounds plausible to a non-expert (me)
Stalin's now having to supply Germany--and I expect that lend-lease just ended. Why should we supply the USSR, only to have those supplies sent to Germany to kill Allied men. Even if FDR wants to, Congress would have a fit at giving anything to Stalin.
I'm no expert on the eastern front, and can't judge it well, but it sounds plausible to a non-expert (me)
Stalin's now having to supply Germany--and I expect that lend-lease just ended. Why should we supply the USSR, only to have those supplies sent to Germany to kill Allied men. Even if FDR wants to, Congress would have a fit at giving anything to Stalin.
And that, in turn will change the situation of the Royal Navy. There won't be any more convoys to Murmansk to cover, which will mean more ships for the Mediterranean; perhaps even a permanent "USS Robin" in the Pacific.
What if as part of the cease fire agreement, Hitler insists that no negotiations will occur with Stalin still in power? I think this would generate enough chaos behind the scenes in Russia, to keep them on the back foot for some time. Either Beria, some generals, or both would take Stalin on a tour of KBG headquarters, or in a paranoid rage, Stalin would purge anyone who even looked at him. Either way it's good for Germany.
Ric350
Ric350
That could also lead to Stalin shooting people, and continuing to fight...Germany is better off with it being all quiet on the Eastern Front.
There won't be partians? They'd have an open shot, as the north side of the river is soviet territory.
Without the Ukraine and the kuban, won't the Soviets face famine by the end of 43? Also if the Caucasus oil is gone then that means roughly 80 per cent of production has been wiped out. Are the Allies going to continue lend-lease food and fuel after the separate peace is signed? If not, the Soviets are going to struggle to keep a lid of the civilian population once the hunger kicks in. It will also be pretty tough to deflect such an enormous defeat from Stalin himself and fingers,albeit discreetly, are going to be pointed. If Stalin acts within character then another purge is probably more than likely at the very least to pin the blame on 'wreckers' in the army and on 'anti-communist' elements within the party.
On the military side, I can't see the Soviets recovering to challenge the Nazis without continued allied aid. Food, Fuel and raw material shortages will degrade mobility and training of armored and infantry units over time without outside support. Recruitment is also going to have to come more from the poorer central Asian areas rather than in OTL where millions could be recruited up from the recovered territories and later Eastern Europe. The literacy issues that these areas had and the language barriers are going to make training up quality soldiers increasingly arduous. With no lend-lease or even reduced levels, essential things like trucks and locomotives are going to need to be prioritized over tank production which means less T-34s and other AFVs. Spare parts are going to be tougher and specialist machine tools will be harder to replace if and when they break down. Overall, there is little chance of the Soviets being able to conduct anything equivalent to OTL's mobile war to drive the Nazis out once the fighting resumes.
On the military side, I can't see the Soviets recovering to challenge the Nazis without continued allied aid. Food, Fuel and raw material shortages will degrade mobility and training of armored and infantry units over time without outside support. Recruitment is also going to have to come more from the poorer central Asian areas rather than in OTL where millions could be recruited up from the recovered territories and later Eastern Europe. The literacy issues that these areas had and the language barriers are going to make training up quality soldiers increasingly arduous. With no lend-lease or even reduced levels, essential things like trucks and locomotives are going to need to be prioritized over tank production which means less T-34s and other AFVs. Spare parts are going to be tougher and specialist machine tools will be harder to replace if and when they break down. Overall, there is little chance of the Soviets being able to conduct anything equivalent to OTL's mobile war to drive the Nazis out once the fighting resumes.
Good point, even if Stalin wanted bow out, like Russia in 1917 he simply could not afford to, let alone resuming molotov-ribbentrop pact quotas. He likely fights delaying actions simpl to get lend lease and put a lid on his population. In reality, the USSR would face genera collapse without men, oil, and food by 44. The Nazis would be so distracted by France by then, they might not be able to do much beyond taking Moscow and then sit on their hands.
Telling the Soviets, "No peace with Stalin" might be best chance to coup, or purge, tthe ussr out of the war,.
Would Hitler accept such a peace? What token reparations would the USSR pay for "starting it?"
Trying to picture the borders - this is the OTL planned Riechkomisariets sans-Moscow, and Greater Finland?
The USA and the UK won't send anything to Stalin if he quits. Maybe, just maybe some food through Vladivostok, but anything military will be kept close. The USA will now need to build up all of the divisions in the Victory Plan since the Germans and their allies will be able to put a good deal more power in the west - there will still be a need for resources in the east to "deal" with the population, partisans, rebuild infrastructure, regauge RRs etc. OTL the only reason LL continued after the Germans surrendered was because the USA was doing it to help the USSR join in against Japan.
HUSKY will go forward, but probably not invading Italy. The smart thing for the Allies to do is take Corsica, Sardinia, and Crete as quickly as possible before the Germans can shift forces west and reinforce these areas. Doing this secures the Mediterranean and the smaller Greek islands can be picked off as desired as their garrisons are now completely isolated. The large islands now become bases for raids on the continent, air bases allowing bombing of targets throughout occupied territory with better fighter escort as the range to many targets is reduced - and there are more axes of attack that need to be covered. The Regia Marina is either reduced to staying in harbor or sunk so that a good deal of naval force can be used elsewhere, and of course the Suez route to the far east is secure from Gibraltar onwards.
With the Allies in control of the Med and at least the large islands and some of the smaller Greek ones, the Turks are most definitely not going to throw in with Germany, they might lean a little more but joining in - no way. Once Finland gets back what it lost, perhaps a little more, I see them calling it quits and joining Sweden in an armed neutrality pact. In terms of returning to continental Europe, a direct invasion of northern France is now out of the question. Southern France, maybe possibly Italy or even Greece...at least as far as the Corinth Canal just to have a toehold. Oil is still a weak point (IMHO I think it would take more than a year to get Baku back in business as well as being able to transport the oil west - the Allies can hit Ploesti from Crete with escorts, and Baku can be hit from Iran or Iraq.
In the Pacific, absent the need to divert LL to the USSR and ground forces in Europe reduced for the USA and the UK/Commonwealth for the moment, the British can carry on with their plans to retake Burma and Malaya and the US can push faster in the Pacific. You may see Japan isolated as OTL, but the first bombs used against Germany while Japan slowly starves and everything stops without raw materials.
Just some thoughts...
HUSKY will go forward, but probably not invading Italy. The smart thing for the Allies to do is take Corsica, Sardinia, and Crete as quickly as possible before the Germans can shift forces west and reinforce these areas. Doing this secures the Mediterranean and the smaller Greek islands can be picked off as desired as their garrisons are now completely isolated. The large islands now become bases for raids on the continent, air bases allowing bombing of targets throughout occupied territory with better fighter escort as the range to many targets is reduced - and there are more axes of attack that need to be covered. The Regia Marina is either reduced to staying in harbor or sunk so that a good deal of naval force can be used elsewhere, and of course the Suez route to the far east is secure from Gibraltar onwards.
With the Allies in control of the Med and at least the large islands and some of the smaller Greek ones, the Turks are most definitely not going to throw in with Germany, they might lean a little more but joining in - no way. Once Finland gets back what it lost, perhaps a little more, I see them calling it quits and joining Sweden in an armed neutrality pact. In terms of returning to continental Europe, a direct invasion of northern France is now out of the question. Southern France, maybe possibly Italy or even Greece...at least as far as the Corinth Canal just to have a toehold. Oil is still a weak point (IMHO I think it would take more than a year to get Baku back in business as well as being able to transport the oil west - the Allies can hit Ploesti from Crete with escorts, and Baku can be hit from Iran or Iraq.
In the Pacific, absent the need to divert LL to the USSR and ground forces in Europe reduced for the USA and the UK/Commonwealth for the moment, the British can carry on with their plans to retake Burma and Malaya and the US can push faster in the Pacific. You may see Japan isolated as OTL, but the first bombs used against Germany while Japan slowly starves and everything stops without raw materials.
Just some thoughts...
Where's Vlasov? Might everyone's best propagandist want to make use of the Anti stallion generals if only to look good?
thaddeus
Donor
my scenario (lately) is capture Ukraine. period. do not move further south, any oilfields captured would be useless for extended period. (not certain the percentages of food production between Ukraine and Kuban, probably tilted quite heavily towards Ukraine?)
coal reserves were (and still are) huge, enough to fulfill German obligations to all of their erstwhile allies and feed stock for their synthetic fuel plants.
my idea would be to try and cripple Soviet air force instead of forcing (any) continuing shipments of raw materials, they had negotiated for aircraft and engines from Vichy regime? even damaged aircraft would have yielded critical materials, an added benefit would be if Allies end lend-lease as result. certainly they might end any aircraft or related shipments.
Chapter III: Generalplan Ost and the Peripheral Strategy, June 1943-May 1944.
This map demonstrates that the entire river south of Kalach-na-Don would be in German hands. As for partisans, they could attack the supply ships I suppose, but I think there'd be a lot less partisan troubles than in the case of transporting everything from Germany to the front by truck convoys and by rail through partisan infested areas, which are now largely avoided.
Anyway, here's an update
Chapter III: Generalplan Ost and the Peripheral Strategy, June 1943-May 1944.
Without the Eastern Front to worry about anymore, at least for the medium term, a shift took place in the Nazi regime’s priorities. An occupational force consisting of some fifty divisions remained behind in the occupied Lebensraum in Eastern Europe while about 150 divisions were redeployed for the defence of Western and particularly Southern Europe. With the fall of Tunisia the previous month, Italy was at risk of being invaded. Reinforcements sent here included the ~ 230.000 Italian soldiers still in Russia, which Mussolini immediately withdrew in anticipation of an Allied invasion of Sicily and southern Italy. The Panzer Division Hermann Goering and the 15th Panzergrenadier Division, the 1st Parachute Division, the 29th Panzergrenadier Division and the XIV Panzer Corps were already on the island, constituting a force of 70.000 men. The elite 3rd SS Panzer Division Totenkopf, three additional fighter squadrons and two additional Stuka dive bomber squadrons were deployed to southern Italy. This didn’t go unnoticed by Allied intelligence, which had access to German radio traffic because they’d cracked the Enigma code a long time ago. The Germans were expecting a move against Italy at some point, but weren’t sure as to where it would take place. Operation Husky, the planned invasion of Sicily, therefore went ahead. The invasion of mainland Italy, however, was cancelled.
In the meantime, a lot of resources were also poured into further completing the Atlantic Wall in order to turn Europe into an impregnable fortress. Emphasis was put on the stretch between Brest and Northern Holland. As a result of slave labourers being brought in (Russians, Ukrainians, Byelorussians, Poles etc.), the total number of forced labourers peaked at 2 million by the autumn of 1943, amounting to 1.800-1.900 of them per kilometre between Brest and Huisduinen. Roughly two thirds of them was involved in preparatory work like rock crushing, cutting rebar, felling trees, making forms and otherwise getting the necessary materials in ready condition and moved. The remaining third was doing the actual construction work. In eighteen weeks about 600-700 workers would manage to build nearly 13 square kilometres of twin concrete lined trenches, spaced 400 metres apart and connected by lateral communication trenches. These trenches were supplemented by bomb shelters, light pillboxes for machine guns, and heavier pillboxes for artillery varying from 37 mm anti-tank guns to 380 mm guns. The workers could build twenty smaller or ten larger emplacements every week. The stretch of fortifications of the Atlantic Wall between Brest and the northern Dutch town of Huisduinen was projected to be completed by the autumn of 1944 with trenches, dugouts and 300-400 bunkers in every 13 square kilometres. Plans were made to increase its depth to over seven kilometres.
One thing that eased construction on the Atlantic Wall was the fact that transportation was less affected by Allied bombings. For one thing, thousands of aircraft were redeployed from the Eastern Front to Western Europe and to Germany itself and were used to intercept the fleets of up to one thousand bombers that were raising German cities on a daily basis. Beyond that, Albert Speer de-emphasized tank production since the need for tanks was much less and instead reallocated resources to the manufacture of aircraft (and the production of fighter aircraft in particular), leading to a doubling of airplane production. Pilots, particularly bomber and dive bomber crews since they were less needed, were reallocated to pilot training. Moreover, more resources were sunk into the Messerschmitt Me 262 jetfighter, using tungsten deliveries from the Soviet Union for the turbine blades. Besides that, an additional 500.000 soldiers returning from the Eastern Front were assigned to anti-aircraft duties; production of varying calibres of anti-aircraft guns had also been radically stepped up correspondingly. In order to avenge the bombings of German cities, Hitler ordered work on the V-1 and V-2 to be sped up
Minister of Armaments Albert Speer wasn’t the only Nazi potentate to redirect his energies. Reichsführer-SS Heinrich Himmler began to implement the Generalplan Ost (General Plan East), which was the plan for the colonization of Central and Eastern Europe. Generalplan Ost envisaged differing percentages of the various conquered nations undergoing Germanization, destruction, expulsion and other fates, the net effect of which would be to ensure that the conquered territories would be Germanized. In ten years’ time, the plan effectively called for the extermination, expulsion, Germanization or enslavement of most or all East and West Slavs living behind the front lines in Europe and whom the Nazis viewed as racially inferior. Jews (100%), Poles (85%), Byelorussians (75%), Ukrainians (65%) and Russians (50%) were considered racially undesirable and would be subjected to removal. This number of people to be removed amounted to 45 million people that couldn’t be Germanized, of whom 31 millions were racially undesirable with the other 14 million to be kept as slaves. In their place about 8-10 million Germans would be settled in an extended “living space” (Lebensraum). Because the number of Germans appeared to be insufficient to populate the vast territories of Central and Eastern Europe, the peoples judged to lie racially between the Germans and the Russians (Mittelschicht), namely Latvians and even Czechs, were also supposed to be resettled there. The “Small Plan” was to be put into practice as the Germans conquered the areas to the east of their pre-war borders and involved the extermination of the Jews, which continued unabated.
Himmler used men freed up from frontline duty to vastly increase the expulsion of Poles and focus shifted more and more away from the General Government and toward the Polenlager. The Polenlager or Polish Camps were Nazi forced labour and concentration camps, originally intended for Poles from Silesia. Given that the General Government would also eventually be colonized, it made sense to start clearing that out too and work the Polish people to death in camps. Generalplan Ost estimated that only 15% of the Polish population was suitable for Germanization anyway. Most of them were judged to be not much better than Jews. Waffen SS divisions and units like the criminal Dirlewanger Brigade, which made even hardened SS veterans tremble with fear, began culling the Polish population in the General Government. To make matters worse, the SS concocted a mass sterilization program for the inmates, rendering them infertile, which was supposed to eventually lead to a population decline since more Poles would die than were born. As far as female prisoners were concerned, their sterilization served a second purpose: SS men who were far from home now got an option for sexual release without the risk of racial pollution, i.e. the mixing of pure Aryan genes with “Slavic garbage genetic material”. This grew into the organized forced prostitution of tens of thousands of Polish women, which Himmler viewed as a lesser evil than rapes that led to mixed breeds being born. Drug addiction was used to make these women more compliant. Similar fates would befall the other peoples of Central and Eastern Europe if the Nazis had their way.
The prostitution scheme spawned plans that were even more sickening, for as far as that was possible. Himmler made a statement at a meeting for his Höhere SS und Polizeiführer (Higher SS and Police Leaders, HSSPF) that took place at Wewelsburg castle in August 1943. He stated: “The process of Ostsiedlung has been ongoing for a millennium. In a time that the grave consequences of racial miscegenation were not known, sexual relations between Germans and Slavs were undoubtedly common. This means that a subset of the Slavic population has Aryan genes in varying degrees. It’s our task to preserve those specimens that are of sufficiently superior Germanic genetic stock to be of use for the greater good of the Volksgemeinschaft.” The kidnapping and forced Germanization of Polish children with purportedly Aryan-Nordic traits continued and the project was expanded to the occupied parts of the Soviet Union. Over one million would be kidnapped to help raise the birth rate of Aryan children (resistant children would be sent to the concentration camps for forced labour or medical experiments). The kidnapping program was officially put under the authority of the Lebensborn program. Lebensborn went further when Himmler authorized the selection of women from the occupied populations with desirable racial traits, starting by sifting through the women arriving at the Polenlager. Fifty thousand women were used as sows, impregnated by SS men, leading to the birth 127.911 children according to SS records by June 1945; these were sent to Germany for adoption. The goal was to increase the Aryan birth rate even further and to achieve the desired phenotype through breeding back. Deemed a success, the program (which was essentially legalized rape and kidnapping) was to be expanded radically after the war. By 1950, the number of women in the program was to increase tenfold, leading to 500.000 births every nine months, or 2 million every three years. In twenty years time, more than 12.5 million births were expected.
The Western Allies, in the meantime, were shocked and outraged that the Soviets had signed a separate peace with the Germans, especially since US Lend-Lease deliveries had been on the increase for months. After expressing their disappointment with the Russians, they had to get on with the matter of fighting the war. Peace between Berlin and Moscow meant that they had to change their plans, starting with finding a decent alternative for the cancelled invasion of Italy. They settled for a “peripheral strategy” that involved the capture of the other major islands in the Mediterranean Sea: Corsica, Sardinia and Crete, with the option of invading the Peloponnesus (a plan favoured by Churchill, still a supporter of the “soft underbelly” strategy, albeit via the Balkans instead of Italy). An invasion of mainland Europe was out of the question and plans for landings in northern France in spring or summer 1944 were cancelled. While the Anglo-Americans might be able to put twelve divisions on the beaches, the reinforced German garrison in France would be able to respond with dozens at the least (an operation in Norway was considered as an alternative). One option that was rejected was to wait for the Manhattan Project to bear fruit: for one thing the Allied governments couldn’t be seen doing nothing since it would negatively affect civilian morale, with the civilian population being unaware of this secret program; moreover, nuclear weapons might not be the war winner they were hoped to be.
Moreover, with increased aircraft production and thousands of planes transferred west from the Eastern Front, manned by veteran airmen, German air superiority over occupied France remained intact. This led to a decisive shift in the air war over Germany since casualties started to pile up for the Allies, often reaching 20% losses during American daytime bombings. Such rates were unacceptable even to the USAAF, despite its massive manpower pool and the tremendous production potential behind it. The Americans switched to night time bombings like the British in September 1943, but even those proved costly now that the Luftwaffe could devote its undivided attention to them. Allied bombings decreased in frequency and scale until by early 1944 only small “surgical” raids against specific targets took place (for as far as 1944 levels of accuracy allowed surgical strikes). Goering proclaimed a victory in the air war and his position at Hitler’s court – after being chastised for his Luftwaffe’s inability to stop Allied bombings – was somewhat enhanced.
Regardless of what they did, it was up to the Allies to take the initiative and for Hitler to play defence, which came decidedly unnatural to him. Hitler, however, lacked the means to invade Britain or to meaningfully strike against the United States. It was, therefore, Churchill’s and Roosevelt’s turn to play ball. The invasion of Sardinia went ahead with the British 8th Army and the US II Corps landing on November 16th 1943, immediately seizing control of the island’s capital of Cagliari (the fact that the Allies were able to invade Sardinia only a few months after Sicily shows the US’s extraordinary logistical capabilities). Naval bombardment was carried out by a combination of American and British vessels. The US Navy provided light cruisers USS Philadelphia, USS Savannah and USS Boise and an assortment of fourteen destroyers, which could hit the beaches with 5 inch (127 mm) and 4 inch (102 mm) shells. The Royal Navy’s Force H provided the big guns in the shape of battleships HMS Nelson and HMS Valiant, which sported 16 inch (406 mm) and 15 inch (381 mm) guns respectively. Air cover was provided from airfields in North Africa, but also by aircraft carriers HMS Illustrious and USS Ranger. More than the Torch landings, this operation was a valuable learning moment as far as coordination between two different navies was concerned.
Unlike the large presences on Sicily, the defences of Sardinia proved weak. The fairly flat region in the southwest of the island was overrun in a matter of days. The more mountainous terrain of the rest of the island was more challenging and they came across strong defensive efforts by the island’s garrison on several occasions. For one thing, there were a handful of Tiger tanks on the island and they gave Allied tanks a run for their money. Overall, the garrison just wasn’t numerous enough, resulting in the complete capture of the island by the Allies by December 2nd 1943. The island of Corsica fell shortly thereafter, with the small Vichy French garrison providing only lacklustre resistance and in many cases surrendering without a fight (the invasion took place before German reinforcements could arrive). Corsica thusly became the first department of France to be liberated. The rest of Europe would have to follow piecemeal, starting with the invasion of Crete planned for spring next year.
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The Allies would be best served to doubling their efforts against Japan. They could knock them out quicker and redeploy the elite amphibious units back to Europe.
