Fallen on the March - the world after a German victory at Stalingrad

Chapter I: Case Blue and the Fall of Stalingrad, May-November 1942.
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Fallen on the March

Chapter I: Case Blue and the Fall of Stalingrad, May-November 1942.

Case Blue (Fall Blau in German) was the Wehrmacht’s codename for its plan for a 1942 strategic summer offensive to take place between June and November. The operation was a continuation of Operation Barbarossa, intended to knock the Soviet Union out of the war, and involved a two-pronged attack against the oil fields of Baku as well as an advance in the direction of Stalingrad along the Volga, to cover the flanks of the advance towards Baku. The operation was divided in two parts. First, the Germans would have to advance to the Volga to defend the flanks of the second phase, which would be the invasion toward the Caucasus. This would be a vital victory for the Germans. Not only was there oil, but the area north of the Caucasus also produced grain, cotton and heavy farm machinery, while the Caucasus region itself also produced coal, peat as well as nonferrous and rare metals like manganese, resources that were of immense importance to Hitler and his war effort.

The elements of the plan were laid out in Führer Directive No. 41: the capture of Leningrad, holding actions for Army Group Centre and the capture of the Caucasus region by Army Group South commanded by Field Marshal Fedor von Bock. The First Panzer, the Seventeenth, the Third Romanian and the Eleventh Armies, were tasked with the Caucasus campaign. First, however, the Second, Fourth Panzer, Sixth, Second Hungarian, Fourth Romanian and Eighth Italian Armies were assigned to the Volga Campaign. Air Fleet 4 (Luftflotte 4) consisted of over 1.600 aircraft, which provided air support under the command of Alexander Löhr and later Wolfram Freiherr von Richthofen (a cousin of WW I’s infamous Red Baron). In the meantime, Stalin believed German preparations in the south were merely a ruse and believed that Moscow would be their primary goal. Therefore Soviet preparations in the south were not what they could have been.

The Germans unleashed their forces on June 28th 1942, with the Fourth Panzer Army commanded by Hermann Hoth starting its drive toward Voronezh. The Red Army withdrew chaotically, enabling a rapid German advance and restoring the Wehrmacht’s confidence. The Luftwaffe provided close air support and successfully contained the Red Air Force through air superiority operations and interdiction attacks against airfields and Soviet defences. The Luftwaffe sometimes acted as a spearhead, sometimes concentrating as many as a hundred aircraft on a single Soviet division. They destroyed 783 Soviet aircraft in 26 days for only 175 aircraft lost on the German side.

By July 5th, forward elements of the Fourth Panzer Army had reached the river Don near Voronezh and became embroiled in the battle to capture the city. Stalin and the Soviet command still expected the main German thrust in the north against Moscow, and believed the Germans would turn north after Voronezh to threaten the capital. As a result, the Soviets rushed reinforcements into the town, to hold it at all costs and counterattacked the Germans’ northern flank in an effort to cut off the German spearheads. Major General A.I. Liziukov, in command of the 5th Tank Army, managed to achieve some minor successes when it began its attack on July 6th, but was forced back to its starting positions by July 15th, losing about half of its tanks in the process. Although the battle was a success, Hitler and Von Bock, commander of Army Group South, heatedly argued over the next steps in the operation, more so because of continued Soviet counterattacks that would tie down Hoth’s forces until July 13th.

On July 7th Hitler fell ill with a severe migraine while his irritable bowel syndrome acted up again as well and he postponed all decision making for 48 hours. He summoned his quack of a physician Theo Morell who diagnosed Hitler with gastroenteritis and prescribed harmless antibiotics. To make the migraine go away, however, he gave Hitler an opiate and not just any opiate, but heroin. During this time, Goebbels became aware that the Fourth Panzer Army and the Sixth Army were in a position to capture Stalingrad fairly easily. Recognizing an excellent propaganda opportunity for what it was, he telephoned Hitler, first to inquire about his health and to stress what a morale boost the capture of Stalin’s city would be. Hitler was usually ready to listen when it came to maintaining a high morale because he was aware that morale problems contributed to Germany’s defeat in World War I (though he could not openly admit this, since it conflicted with his almost religious faith in the “stab in the back” myth).

The Führer ultimately decided against splitting up Army Group South and sending the Fourth Panzer Army to assist in the Don crossing, where it wasn’t needed anyway.[1] Instead Hoth and Von Paulus’s Sixth Army were to take Stalingrad and the necessary fuel was allocated to that operation. It had become a top priority for Hitler. The defending forces, particularly the 62nd and 64th Armies, were still forming and not nearly ready to stop the German onslaught. The attack commenced on July 17th and Red Army soldiers bravely fought in delaying action, most notably at Kotelnikovo and Kalach-na-Don where their resistance reached desperate levels. They fell on July 21st and July 23rd respectively. Stalin, acting as People’s Commissar of Defence, issued Order No. 227 in response to the threat to the city named after him and this order was summarized by one line: “not one step back.” On the 24th he ordered the weak 62nd and 64th Armies to counterattack to retake Kalach-na-Don and Kotelnikovo, but these counterattacks were met with a hail of bombs dropped by the Stukas of Air Fleet 4. The counterattack had failed miserably less than a day later.

On July 25th Hoth, with permission from Hitler, intercalated a 24 hour break to recuperate and make final preparations for the assault on Stalingrad. The Germans finally captured the city fairly intact on July 29th 1942. Stalin ordered the 62nd and 64th Armies to hold the city no matter the cost and – as a result of their fear of reprisals if they did abandon the city – a pocket of resistance continued to resist in a few city districts. They held out for four more days until August 2nd, when their positions were overrun and these two formations were annihilated. Their commander, Vasily Chuikov, was captured by the Germans and he featured in Goebbels’s bombastic newsreels. Hitler visited the city a few days later, which was covered extensively by newsreels as well, and by “popular decree” Stalingrad was renamed “Hitlerstadt” (Hitler City), adding insult to injury for Stalin. It became another city on a long list of Soviet cities that had fallen on the march to the Wehrmacht.

The German offensive continued. Germany’s logistical situation had improved markedly due to the fall of Stalingrad. The Germans now shifted from transporting most of their supplies by road and rail to sending supplies down the river Danube into the Black Sea and up the Don River all the way to Voronezh. The Germans wouldn’t have to worry about transhipments anymore. Moreover, this way they no longer had to worry about partisans harassing their logistics. Moreover, the risk of naval or aerial attack was minimal, mainly because the Luftwaffe could use its air superiority to down any Red Air Force bombing raids and pummel the Black Sea Fleet if it ventured into open waters. Between Kalach-na-Don and Stalingrad, a distance of 80 kilometres there was a railway, albeit on Soviet gauge, and Army Group South’s commander Von Bock started to keep trains going up and down. That and control of all the airfields around Stalingrad, turned the city into a major supply base on the Volga and put Astrakhan within full supply support range.

The Sixth Army remained in Stalingrad, facing north-westward because that was the only place an attack could come from. The south was covered by the German offensive in that direction while from the east there were no roads and no railroads to support an army as far east as Orenburg, some 1.000 km away. That left the north as the only viable option for Soviet attempts to retake the city, something the Germans realized all too well. When Stalin woke up to the news that the city that bore his name had fallen to the Nazis, he was infuriated and demanded an immediate counteroffensive to retake it. His generals pleaded with him to let them attend to more important things, like attacking the flanks of the Fourth Panzer Army advancing down the Volga and divert the enemy’s attention away from the Caucasus oilfields. Stalin remained adamant in his position that recapturing Stalingrad and cutting the Volga would cut the Germans in the Caucasus off from resupply and force them to withdraw. He erroneously viewed the city as a linchpin. The result would make the Rzhev meat grinder look like a playground scuffle and was even more lopsided in favour of the Germans.

The still forming Don Front under Lieutenant-General Konstantin Rokossovsky, who had withdrawn to Saratov to allow the Red Air Force to cover his supplies, was ordered to carry out a totally premature counterattack. It was known as Operation Uranus. The 1st Guards and the Fourth Tank Army spearheaded the ill-fated offensive, which commenced on August 10th, and they were met with a blizzard of bombs dropped by the Stuka dive bombers of the Fourth Air Fleet before they even made contact with the Sixth Army. Out of 800.000 men 170.000 men were killed, 280.000 were wounded and 2.500 tanks were lost and, by the time the offensive ended on September 8th, the Red Army was no closer to retaking Stalingrad (the Germans had suffered around 40.000 irrecoverable losses). A second and larger offensive toward Stalingrad, known as Operation Saturn, took place between September 23rd and October 21st. This time, out of 1.1 million men, 210.000 were killed and 320.000 wounded while 2.800 tanks were lost (the Germans incurred only about 65.000 irrecoverable losses). Bloody fighting continued between Saratov and Stalingrad as Stalin foolhardily continued to pour men and resources into it, to no avail. Stalin’s titanic ego had led him to sacrifice half a million lives in the vane pursuit of recapturing “his city” before the year was out. He completely burned up his forces this way.

In the meantime, the Fourth Panzer Army was ordered to advance further down the Volga to Astrakhan and then down the Caspian coast towards Baku. It was supplied by boats that followed its advance down the river Volga and, as the advance continued southward, made their deliveries to two dozen small ports along the Caspian coast. Secondarily, it was also supported by Ju 52 transport planes flying out of the captured airfields around Stalingrad. Hoth advanced south toward the Caucasus essentially unopposed, capturing Astrakhan on September 2nd, until they hit the rear of the 44th Army (a subordinate unit of the Transcaucasian Front under Dmitri Kozlov) commanded by Major General Ivan Yefimovich Petrov on the Kuma River. His forces, limited in flexibility by Stalin’s counterproductive no-retreat orders, tried to prevent the Germans from crossing the river Kuma and failed, suffering horrendous losses in their attempt. This was all the less surprising considering the poor supply situation of the Transcaucasian Front: with the Volga cut off, this meant supplies to Kozlov’s forces had to be delivered through a single track railroad through Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan and then by boat across the Caspian Sea to Baku. Along the coast the mountains before Baku didn’t really start up before the Dagestan ASSR capital of Makhachkala, and therefore it was captured fairly easily on October 16th. After constructing an airfield there, the Germans pretty quickly put a stop to Soviet traffic on the Caspian Sea. Some E-boats stationed at Astrakhan further contributed to that.

Meanwhile the First Panzer, the Seventeenth, the Third Romanian and the Eleventh Army joined in on the Caucasus campaign soon after, advancing along the Black Sea coast toward Majkop and Grozny, receiving supplies through a plethora of Soviet port towns. Attempts by the Black Sea Fleet to interdict supply runs largely ended in failure. With the Fourth Panzer advancing toward Baku while most of the Transcaucasian Front was preoccupied with the much larger force advancing toward Grozny, it risked being surrounded. If the Fourth Panzer reached Baku, then they’d be to the rear of the Transcaucasian Front and the latter would be sandwiched between it and the four armies coming from the north. Kozlov felt he had no other choice but to order his forces to retreat into Iran across the Caucasus Mountains. The order was given the day that Makhachkala fell. The force that reached Tabriz, however, was only nominally the Transcaucasian Front. The amount of forces that actually made it across the mountains wasn’t much bigger than a field army, the majority having been lost to German attack, the hostile conditions and lack of supplies. By late November 1942, Baku was in German hands. The oilfields had been set ablaze by the retreating Soviets, making night time look like day.

[1] This is the PoD
 
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Chapter II: The Fall of Leningrad and the Peace of Stockholm, November 1942-June 1943.
Interesting start. Are events elsewhere as OTL so far?

The Pacific and North Africa are pretty much the same as OTL right now. Anyway, here's an update.


Chapter II: The Fall of Leningrad and the Peace of Stockholm, November 1942-June 1943.

With the Caucasus oil secure, the Wehrmacht settled for holding actions during the winter of 1942-’43. The Seventeenth Army and the Third Romanian Army, joined by the Eighth Italian Army, were left in the south and were transformed into Army Group Caucasus (Heeresgruppe Kaukasien) under the command of Field Marshal Wilhelm List. This command would prove to be an uneventful one for List since Army Group Caucasus’s mission was merely to hold the line against attacks from Iran. Those were unlikely to materialize given the hostile nature of the terrain and the weather. Even Hitler on drugs was realistic enough to conclude that an advance through the inhospitable Caucasus Mountains was insane, which was why he didn’t order an advance into Iran himself. Wehrmacht engineers spent a lot of time to get the oilfields, which had been blown sky-high by the retreating Red Army, back into operation. It would take six months for the first oil to flow and another year, or up until May 1944, to get the Caucasus oilfields up to 100% capacity.

The remainder of Army Group South was largely redeployed to hold the new frontline along the Don and the Volga, with the exceptions of Von Kleist’s First Panzer Army and Von Manstein’s Eleventh Army. Both formations were transferred to Army Group North because Hitler planned to capture Leningrad in a spring offensive tentatively scheduled for May 1st 1943 (Labour Day was observed as a holiday in the Soviet Union, unsurprising since the USSR was supposed to be a utopian “worker’s paradise”). Taking Leningrad would be a massive help: it would eliminate the Soviet Baltic Fleet, whose submarines had been raiding transports of iron ore from neutral Sweden to Germany; it would remove 1 million combatants from the enemy roster; the city could become a major supply base; Soviet airbases would be captured for German use; the fall of the city would also free up 200.000 Finnish troops for use in Karelia and prevent the Soviets from knocking Finland out until they liberated the city first; and it would result in the capture or elimination of several factories in the city making weapons and ammunitions for the Red Army.

In the meantime, another front was going better for the Allies. Fighting in North Africa had started with the Italian declaration of war on in June 1940. That same month, the British Army’s 11th Hussars crossed the border from Egypt into Libya and captured the Italian Fort Capuzzo. This was followed by an Italian counter-offensive into Egypt and the capture of Sidi Barrani in September 1940 and again in December 1940 following a British Commonwealth counteroffensive, Operation Compass. During Operation Compass, the Italian Tenth Army was destroyed and the German Africa Corps, under the command of Erwin Rommel, was sent to North Africa in February 1941 to reinforce Italian forces in order to prevent a complete Axis defeat.

A fluctuating series of battles for control of Libya and regions of Egypt followed. They reached a climax in the Second Battle of El Alamein in October 1942 when British Commonwealth forces under the command of Lieutenant-General Bernard Montgomery inflicted a decisive defeat on Rommel and forced the remainder of his forces into Tunisia. After the Anglo-American landings (Operation Torch) in North-West Africa in November 1942, and subsequent battles against Vichy France forces (who then changed sides), the Allies encircled several thousand German and Italian personnel in northern Tunisia and finally forced their surrender in May 1943. Rommel had already long since been recalled to Germany to avoid his name being associated with this shameful defeat and the surrender of over 275.000 men (he had been replaced by General Hans-Jürgen von Arnim).

Operation Torch in November 1942 was a compromise operation that met the British objective of securing victory in North Africa while allowing American armed forces the opportunity to engage in the fight against Nazi Germany on a limited scale. In addition, as Joseph Stalin, the leader of the battered Soviet Union, had long been demanding a second front be opened to engage the Wehrmacht and relieve pressure on the Red Army, it provided some degree of relief for the Red Army on the Eastern Front by diverting Axis forces to the African theatre, tying them up and destroying them there.

With the Red Army on the ropes and having burnt through so much of its manpower reserves in a series of ill-conceived counteroffensives on the Stalingrad front, this amount of relief was not nearly enough. Stalin insisted on a second front in mainland Europe and quite frankly stated that if this didn’t materialize soon enough then the Soviet Union would be exhausted and unable to further prosecute the war. He said this in December 1942 at the Third Moscow Conference, organized as an emergency meeting in response to the fall of the Caucasus oilfields and attended by British Prime Minister Winston Churchill and US special envoy William Averell Harriman. Given the loss of 70% of the USSR’s oil production, Averell Harriman pledged an increase in American petroleum deliveries, particularly through Vladivostok: the Soviets railway network in Central Asia consisted of only one major railway and was therefore insufficient, making Iran a suboptimal option; additionally, the Japanese wouldn’t go near cargo ships carrying Lend-Lease toward Vladivostok as long as these vessels flew the Soviet flag. To encourage Stalin to stay in the war, at the Casablanca Conference in January 1943, Churchill and Roosevelt declared that they demanded an unconditional surrender from the Axis powers (additionally, they made plans for an Italian Campaign and an invasion of northern France in 1944).

In the meantime, the Germans had plans of their own. They tightened the Siege of Leningrad further, intensifying air attacks against the Soviet truck convoys trying to reach the city across the solidly frozen Lake Ladoga. Army Group North, now reinforced with the First Panzer Army and the Eleventh Army, repulsed some small scale Soviet counterattacks (though large scale counteroffensives to relieve the siege had been proposed, they had never been realized because Stalin had decided to pour everything into Stalingrad). Apart from intermittent supplies delivered across Lake Ladoga (by boat during spring, summer and autumn, and by truck across the ice during winter) no food came into the city. NKVD reports first documented the use of human meat as food in December 1941 and a year later they had arrested over 2.100 cannibals. They were divided into “corpse-eating” and “person-eating”, with the latter usually being shot and the former sent to prison. These instances of cannibalism mostly occurred in the outlying districts of the city, almost none of them involved murder and the perpetrators were often unsupported women with dependent children with no previous convictions (allowing for a degree of clemency). Far more common was murder for ration cards. In the first six months of 1942, Leningrad witnessed over 1.200 such murders. The situation in the city was desperate.

On May 1st 1943, Army Group North launched Unternehmen Frühlingserwachen (Operation Spring Awakening), which was the codename of the final offensive to capture the besieged port city of Leningrad. Under the command of Georg von Küchler, Army Group North – now consisting of the First Panzer Army, the Eleventh Army, the Sixteenth and the Eighteenth Army – executed the plan primarily devised by Von Manstein, the commander of the Eleventh Army. The Eleventh, the Sixteenth and the Eighteenth Armies attacked the city directly, with the LIV Corps of the Eleventh Army carrying out a spoiling attack against the Oranienbaum Bridgehead. Von Kleist’s First Panzer Army was to launch a spoiling attack east to keep the Volkhov Front busy. By May 4th German forces had fought their way into the southern outskirts of the city itself, despite heroic resistance from the outnumbered and ill-equipped defenders. Urban combat in the ruins of the bombed out city was intense, with the Germans being forced to clear it out building by building. This is unsurprising since Stalin’s no surrender orders still stood and the men of the Leningrad Front, commanded by General Leonid Govorov, tried to carry them out as best they could for fear of NKVD reprisals against themselves and their families.

Stalin responded by ordering the Volkhov Front, commanded by General Kirill Meretskov, to launch a relief attempt. It was ill-equipped to do so because Stalin had stripped the northern and central parts of the front of units not required to merely hold the existing frontline to free up men for the Stalingrad sector. The 22nd Army and the 5th Army were transferred from the Kalinin Front and the Western Front to the Volkhov Front, but by the time they arrived on May 13th the Germans had already taken half the city and had established bridgeheads on the right bank of the Neva River. By now the Schwerer Gustav 800 mm railway gun and two Karl-gerät 600 mm siege mortars had arrived to pulverize the defences in the north of the city, reducing entire buildings to craters at a time. The Volkhov Front’s counterattack liberated Shlisselburg and came within a few kilometres of the frontline of the Leningrad Front. A few thousand soldiers of the Leningrad Front actually fought their way through German lines to the Volkhov Front’s frontline at Shlisselburg, ignoring no-retreat orders. On May 20th 1943 the Leningrad Front’s forces were finally driven out of the city and, after a lot of begging from Stavka, Stalin would allow an evacuation. Govorov attempted to link up with the Volkhov Front, but the Germans threw the forces spearheading the breakout back, leaving evacuation by boat across Lake Ladoga as the only option. Stuka dive bombers incessantly attacked the transports across the lake and less than fifteen percent of the Leningrad Front’s forces were actually rescued. In the meantime, the garrison of the island of Kronstadt held out for another three days.

Hitler visited the ruined city, of which he had said on multiple occasions that he wanted to raise it to the ground. Von Manstein, the brains behind the plan to storm the city, convinced him not to for reasons outlined earlier. It was a logistical boon because now Army Group North could now be supplied directly by boat through a major port, eliminating disruptive partisans from the equation. Further counterattacks from the Volkhov Front, supplemented by the remnants of the Leningrad Front, were met with a hail of bombs from Stukas based on airfields in and near the city. Several weapons and ammunitions factories were also captured and they were disassembled and sent to Germany.

Most of the civilian population and the hundreds of thousands of soldiers taken prisoner were deported to the Reich, an operation that was supervised by Kurt Daluege. Daluege had risen through the ranks of the SS, becoming head of the Ordnungspolizei (Order Police) which gave him administrative, though not executive, authority over most of the uniformed police in Germany. He rose to the rank of SS-Oberst-Gruppenführer (the highest rank in the SS, equivalent to Colonel General) and Generaloberst der Polizei (Colonel General of the Police). He had sufficiently demonstrated his brutality in his instructions on dealing with Polish franc-tireurs: they were to be strung up from lampposts as a demonstration for the entire population. During the war in 1941, he attended a mass shooting of 4.435 Jews by Police-Battalion 307 near Brest-Litowsk and a mass shooting of Jews in Minsk. Further in October 1941, Daluege signed deportation orders for Jews from Germany, Austria and the Protectorate of Bohemia-Moravia to Riga and Minsk. Now he was given the much greater responsibility of deporting 1.5 million people from Leningrad for the purpose of forced labour. He ruthlessly carried out his task. Half a million were put to work on the Atlantic Wall while the remainder was spread out across Germany and the General-Government to work long hours in weapons and ammunitions factories or as farmhands while being given insufficient rations. Under all circumstances were they under strict SS supervision (among other things to prevent racial mixing between Germans and Slavs) and on the receiving end of horrible abuse from the SS guards. Only a few thousand souls remained in Leningrad after Daluege had successfully concluded the deportation of an entire urban population, which had taken him only six months.

The catastrophic losses and the defeats at the hands of the Germans had been piling up for almost two years by now and after the fall of Leningrad morale among Red Army soldiers hit rock bottom. The fear of NKVD political commissars remained and around them the men obeyed, but undercover informants reported that in fact the soldiers didn’t want to fight in useless offensives anymore. One report from the Stalingrad sector described the general mood among the men as ranging from “apathetic to downright mutinous.” Other reports from officers concerned manpower reserves, more specifically how depleted they were and that this meant the Red Army should limit itself to defensive operations. Stalin saw which way the wind was blowing and decided to quit the war, of course with the intention of backstabbing Hitler the moment the opportunity presented itself.

On June 7th 1943, Soviet ambassador to Sweden Alexandra Kollontai contacted the German embassy in Stockholm through the Japanese embassy. The German embassy contacted the foreign ministry directly by phone and the call was transferred directly to the foreign minister’s office due to its nature. Von Ribbentrop learned that Stalin was requesting an armistice and offering peace negotiations, essentially offering a Brest-Litovsk 2.0 as a starting point. Ribbentrop relayed this message to Hitler immediately. The same day the Führer summoned all of his minions to join him at his Alpine retreat on the Obersalzberg, and they came at his beckon call. Goering, Goebbels, Bormann, Himmler, Heydrich, Frick, Speer, Ribbentrop, Keitel and Jodl attended the meeting that begun that evening and continued well into the night.

Hitler was initially opposed because the original objective was to capture everything up to the Ural Mountains. Keitel just parroted what Hitler said, but Jodl had the courage to mention that the Wehrmacht too could use a break and that logistics wouldn’t permit an advance much further east. Goering added that the fighter planes freed up and additional men available to man the anti-aircraft guns would surely stymie the Allied bombing campaign against German cities. Speer supported Goering because an effective end to the bombing campaign would lead to an increase in industrial production and smoother delivery. Goebbels mentioned the immense propaganda value and how it’d boost civilian morale, which was declining due to the bombing campaign. Himmler mentioned that, without the front to worry about, his SS could “consolidate” the existing eastern conquests. After several hours, Hitler felt worn down and changed his mind. Germany would accept peace, for now, and finish the job later once the meddlesome British and Americans had been despatched.

Hitler sent a counterproposal that demanded everything west of the Leningrad-Astrakhan line for Germany, which largely corresponded to the area occupied by German forces (Finland would regain what it had ceded to the Soviet Union after the Winter War). No matter how humiliating these terms were, Stalin had no choice but to agree given military realities and the politburo rubberstamped his decision, which became known as the Peace of Stockholm. In reality it was more of a ceasefire given that both sides had already secretly resolved to resume hostilities at a later date.
 
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So Heydrich has survived Operation Anthropoid. Has he been put in charge of occupied France, as I believe was intended historically before his assassination?
 
This is quite an interesting timeline. I am quite interested in the date that the Treaty of Stockholm was signed. This is only about a month at most before the Allied Invasion of Scilly, so I can't see that encountering any serious problems for the Allies, but the main invasion of Italy might get called off, and Mussolini might remain in power. The WAllies might be able to manage an attack on Sardinia and Corsica, but an invasion of Italy might be considered too dangerous. This leaves the only other options to be an invasion of Crete, and a general chipaway in the Med, while the Allies increase strategic bombing of Germany. There might also be a Caucasian campaign from Iran, though I doubt due to the general obscurity of the front and logistical constraints it will amount to much more than a static conflict with a few divisions from each side. The Americans might start throwing more forces at the Pacific while the British build up coastal defences in case of an Operation Sealion.
 
This is quite an interesting timeline. I am quite interested in the date that the Treaty of Stockholm was signed. This is only about a month at most before the Allied Invasion of Scilly, so I can't see that encountering any serious problems for the Allies, but the main invasion of Italy might get called off, and Mussolini might remain in power. The WAllies might be able to manage an attack on Sardinia and Corsica, but an invasion of Italy might be considered too dangerous. This leaves the only other options to be an invasion of Crete, and a general chipaway in the Med, while the Allies increase strategic bombing of Germany. There might also be a Caucasian campaign from Iran, though I doubt due to the general obscurity of the front and logistical constraints it will amount to much more than a static conflict with a few divisions from each side. The Americans might start throwing more forces at the Pacific while the British build up coastal defences in case of an Operation Sealion.

I'm somewhat skeptical about just how possible this whole scenario is - I am sure Obsessed Nuker will be along before too long to open fire - even with the obvious POD departure assumed; at least Calbear had the additional forces which had been deployed to Africa available for his timeline (which as he admits is still a push). But rolling with what we have...

1943 steadily becomes more interesting for the Allies because even if they lack intelligence about Stalin's readiness to consider terms, they're certainly going to suspect the probability - not least because Stalin has been screaming in increasingly frantic tones for a SECOND FRONT NOW. I mean, at much higher decibels (and veiled threats) than had been the case heretofore. Which raises three immediate questions

1. Do the Allies go ahead with HUSKY? Yeah, I think they do - they will be desperate to show good faith to Stalin. In fact, it's quite possible that TRIDENT gets moved up, and the possibility of moving from the July moon to the June moon is mooted, despite the logistical difficulties. The Allies know that Russia and Italy are racing each other to collapse. Knocking out Italy not only diverts German forces but might give Stalin a morale boost to hang in a little longer. As Churchill himself minuted before TRIDENT, "Never forget that there are 185 German divisions against the Russians - We are not at present in contact with any."

So HUSKY might well debut at about the same time that Stalin has opened negotiations with Hitler (I don't know on what date the treaty is publicized, or when the Allies learn that it's happening. But it would likely be too late to call off the invasion.) Planning for Italy probably also continues at a feverish pace - but the Allies also know it may be overtaken by events. Alternate plans to seize the other big islands (Sardinia, Corsica, even Crete) are explored at the same time - even massive German redeployments to the Mediterranean will make these harder operations to defeat in the face of Allied air and naval power (or not worth the cost to try).

This probably answers the next question...

2. Do the Allies try ROUNDUP or SLEDGEHAMMER instead? The dire situation on the Soviet front in early 1943 will press the case more closely. But the logistical difficulties (brought on by the drawn out fighting in Tunisia) are not going away, nor is the lack of Allied air superiority over northern France. Likewise, Allied leaders will not have overlooked the dangers lurking even in a successful Allied lodgement should Stalin throw in the towel - the bridgehead will now be faced with dozens more divisions and a whole lot more Luftwaffe. A forced withdrawal under fire would be a nightmare. Also: the majority of the troops and aircraft used would be British/Commonwealth. So I think this is unlikely, though there will be even more anguish, soul searching, shouting and violent correspondence with Stalin and his emissaries before Roosevelt and Churchill set it aside.

At any rate, the Allies really can't stage an invasion in Northern France before July, as I read it, which will make it moot anyway.

3. Does this knock Mussolini out anyway? I think it has to give Victor Emmanuel and the Fascist Grand Council some pause. Even a temporary victory over the Soviet Union is an enormous achievement, and it could free up enough German forces to stalemate the Allies - or in the alternative, to seize Italy quite forcefully, with summary executions to follow. At the least, I think it causes hesitation, while Mussolini's enemies see how events unfold. No matter what happens, Italy's in a very bad position, primed to be a terrible battlefield of some kind.

4. Does a disastrous peace endanger Stalin's hold on power? Stalin had purged so many possible resistance leaders over the previous 6 years that it seems unlikely. But this will be a black mark on his prestige - he has operated the Soviet Union like a tightly wound spring over the previous 24 months - and now the spring is being suddenly released, and not in the promised direction. The price paid to date is horrible beyond belief, and now there's no immediate prospect of redeeming it. Might Beria try something? I think it's not impossible - though he'd be no more likely to keep power any more than he was able to in 1953.
 
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ooh boy, things have just gotten interesting. Germany should try to convince Spain to get into the war, and they should renew the Battle of Britain now that the Luftwaffe has no commitments in the east
 
ooh boy, things have just gotten interesting. Germany should try to convince Spain to get into the war, and they should renew the Battle of Britain now that the Luftwaffe has no commitments in the east

I think that with the Allies now in control of North Africa and most of the Mediterranean, Franco will be even less inclined to join the Axis than he was in 1940.

On the bright side, though, he ought to be able to get the Blue Division back. And he will be nervous enough now to want it.
 
Quibble: Stalingrad is captured on the march, doable enough, but then is supplied via barges on the Don River to then rails.

BIG PROBLEM: The Russians were on the other side of the Don and IOTL, the Germans never completely cleared the west side of the Don to begin with.

What changes here that 1. the west side of the Don is cleared and 2. the Russians magically won't attack from the east side?

This creates a supply situation that prevents Baku from being approached, let alone falling.
 
Quibble: Stalingrad is captured on the march, doable enough, but then is supplied via barges on the Don River to then rails.

BIG PROBLEM: The Russians were on the other side of the Don and IOTL, the Germans never completely cleared the west side of the Don to begin with.

What changes here that 1. the west side of the Don is cleared and 2. the Russians magically won't attack from the east side?

This creates a supply situation that prevents Baku from being approached, let alone falling.

One would assume that the Red Army would be a little too preoccupied with the entirety of Army Group South moving in the direction of the Caucasus to be able to do anything about ships going up the Don IMHO, or at least up to Kalach-na-Don. I will concede that further north than that there might still be a problem.
 
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