Following the victorious war against Russia, Berlin was in a unique position to influence policy in China, and many rival powers were more than concerned what their aims might be and whether Germany, flush with victory, might attempt to muscle out established concessions or even entirely clientise China, turning the country into a de-facto colony. Though such ideas circulated among conservative and right-wing liberal politicians in Berlin, there is no evidence they were ever seriously entertained by the government. These fears, voiced most insistently in Paris, did not reflect the actual capabilities of the German state in any way. Neither could its navy operate in Chinese waters in any significant strength nor its army sustain a significant force on the mainland even if it met no opposition at sea. German influence in China, unless exerted in concert with other powers, was limited to economic and political pressure. This makes the scope of its success all the more remarkable.
In the immediate aftermath of the war, Germany’s role in China was mainly providing advice and equipment. The presence of military and political advisers throughout the imperial government that had begun during the war was its greatest asset, the paucity of investment funds its greatest liability. Where French, British and US companies were able to build or buy up mines, railways, canals and factories throughout the country, manage imperial concessions and monopolies, and extract profits in the millions, German industry was reduced to selling its products to whoever could muster the purchasing power. In a war-torn, impoverished and politically unstable country, that was an unenviable role. Its policy towards China was accordingly defined by three key tenets: Opposition to any exclusionary policies by other powers (“Open Door”), efforts to foster political stability, and great reluctance to antagonise Japan in any meaningful way.
German support for Japan was motivated in part by admiration for the country’s military prowess, but more importantly by a misplaced hope of gaining it as an ally in containing Russia. Its policy of balancing Chinese and Japanese interests even where this compromised its own position in China did not end until the Tsingtao Convention of 1937. For many years, German diplomats were firmly convinced of the possibility of close and friendly ties with both powers and dedicated much ink and sweat to this fruitless pursuit.
The first great test of Germany’s China policy came immediately after the war with the Wuchang Army’s mutiny and subsequent march on Peking. At the time, this was met with shock and confusion, though it now regarded in large parts the responsibility of German military advisers. Shaping the various Chinese armies into a modern, Westernised fighting force without affecting their political consciousness proved impossible, and little allowance was made for what the newly mobilised citizen soldiers would do in a world where ethnic nationalism and esprit de corps fuelled tangible victories. The emergence of a decided Han Chinese identity among the majority of the soldiers (but not its sizeable cavalry contingents) was initially opportunistically welcomed, later underestimated by the Manchu dynasty until growing tensions exploded into a catastrophic crisis of deference. The field army effectively decided to stop obeying court-appointed officials and insisted on a direct chain of command all the way to their emperor as was customary in European kingdoms. When this met with opposition, they responded by violence which the government and its Manchu banner forces found themselves unable to counter effectively. Resistance fell apart in a matter of months, and when the army entered Peking in early 1909, the dowager empress fled the city, having failed in her attempt to assassinate the Guangxu Emperor.
Though initial reports by Western observers suggested that the revolt was a German ploy, there is no evidence whatsoever to suggest that. German instructors with the troops interpreted their remit narrowly, supporting the units they were assigned to and insisting that the ultimate loyalty to the emperor had to be maintained. As all sides in the coming civil war claimed that allegiance, this was no hindrance. The outcome for Germany proved positive – all parties found them partners they could work with – yet the great prize of dominating Chinese politics eluded them. As the Chinese Empire disintegrated into rival fiefdoms of generals, provincial governors, and local princes, Germany watched and sold equally to all. As warfare, ethnic cleansing and lawlessness spread, Chinese business came to flourish in the Western exclaves, protected by European military prestige and power. Close to the imperial centre at Peking which Germany never ceased to consider representative of all of China, the Shandong peninsula became a key centre of industrial development fuelled by local coal deposits and fostered by German expertise. It was the taxes of these prospering companies that paid for the German presence on the Chinese mainland and their products that ultimately allowed the Guangxu Emperor and a camarilla of Wuchang generals to reassert meaningful power through much of the country.
Berlin’s relationship with the Chinese government, though generally friendly, was never free from strain. One continuing issue of contention was that even as the countries allied against Russia, Germany never waived the indemnities from the Boxer Rebellion. Germany, of course, could ill afford to forgo any source of hard currency, but the contrast to the United States was glaring. Another problem was the German insistence on an ‘Open Door’ policy that included low or no tariffs, hampering China’s domestic industry and limiting its revenue potential. This was not resolved until the 1940s, when China’s resurgent government unilaterally imposed import duties and Germany, like most Western countries, simply accepted the fact. Yet the greatest disappointment to Peking was Berlin’s willingness to embrace the Manchuria Scheme. This may, in fact, have been down to genuine ignorance on the part of the German foreign policy establishment who believed the Japanese propaganda line that China, a proud and ancient nation, had suffered oppression from the Manchu for generations and, as it cast off the shackles of foreign domination, should be glad to expel the Manchurian provinces as a foreign body. More likely, it was owed to the doomed effort to appease both China and Japan. Left without even token support from anyone but the United States, China bowed to the inevitable, allowing the provinces to become a nominally independent Japanese protectorate, but the loss rankled. This may ultimately explain why China did not choose to join Germany in the second Russo-German War, though it agreed to close its ports to Russian trade at Berlin’s insistence.
(from R.A. Gardner: Eagle and Dragon. Two Centuries of German Policy in China, Penguin 1998, foreword)