Effects of an Oda Japan?

[GameBawesome]

(Based off a previous thread I made that died and wanted a fresh start.)

Oda Nobunaga was one of the Great Unifiers of Japan and is one of my favorite historical figures in history. Through brilliance, and brutality, he almost unified the entirety of Japan. He was open to foreign culture and ideas, yet ruthless to his rivals, and was on the path of uniting all of Japan...

...Then he was betrayed by Akechi Mitsuhide, at Honnō-ji. After his death, Toyotomi Hideyoshi finished his conquests, invaded Korea (With some theory claiming to originally was Nobunaga's idea), and then Tokugawa Ieyasu took control over Japan, which later the Tokugawa Shogunate would close off Japan.

Oda Nobunaga not being betrayed, or surviving is one of biggest "What if's" in Japanese History, as his influence could've affected the course of Japanese History.

We are here to talk about those effects.

In a scenario where Oda Nobunaga wasn't betrayed by Akechi Mitsuhide, and defeated all the rivals in his way, (such as the Mori, Uesugi, Shimazu, Otomo, Chosokabe, Later Hojo, Date, etc), unifying Japan around the late 1580s, and becoming the main leader of Japan*.

*Sidenote 1: I did a bit of research, Oda Nobunaga couldn't become Shogun due to them not being of Minamoto Descent, nor really didn't care about such titles. Assuming Oda Nobunaga and the Oda Clan doesn't take up the mantle of Shogun, and he and successors of the Oda become effectively Daijō-daijin (Chancellor of the Realm) for life, what if they took the title of Taikun (Great Lord/Prince or Supreme Commander) to distinguish themselves as rulers of Japan, besides the Emperor of Japan

Now, there are some aspects of effects I want to focus on an "Oda Japan", or an Azuchi Period*

*Sidenote 2: Azuchi becomes administrative center, with Omi the political/military capital. But Osaka would have remained the commercial hub.

• Culture (Arts, music, theater, entertainment, writings)
• Cuisine
• Fashion (European Fashion)
• Technological advancements (Naval and military)
• Religion (Christianity, Buddhism, Shintoism)
• Admirative policies and Government (The Feudal System, Samurai, Ashigaru, Other Clans, etc)
• Intentional relations (With China, Joseon, Portugal, England, Dutch, Spain, ETC)
• War, Exploration, and Expansion*
• Trade (Nanban Trade, Red Seal Ships)

*Another few PODs, and going off the idea the Korean Invasion, and assuming it was Oda Nobunaga's idea:

A) Japan still invades like OTL, but still loses, yet the war ends earlier than OTL, and the Oda Clan stays in power
B) Japan still invades like OTL, but wins this time, yet couldn't invade Ming China

Either way, Japan less isolationists, and more expansionist and aggressive than OTL. Maybe through connections to Southeast Asia, Japan focuses there.

So, with all that in mind, what would be some effects of an Oda Japan, both within Japan and internationally.

 

[Munrojock2]

Japan otl actually adopted scientific warfare so war with the spanish and Portugal could go in their favour maybe even an early version of the dutch conquests?

 

[KingSweden24]

Well for one thing, the copy of “Shogun” by James Clavell im reading currently would have a very different plot

 

[kholieken]

Im not sure simply change of leaders would cause any big change on Japanese history.

Oda would unify Japan, then what ?

Likely same policy pursued by Tokugawa Shogunate would be pursued by Oda clan, its not just leader whim but rational decisions.

 

[Tom_B]

One possibility is he adopts a very deliberate Grand Strategy towards trying to conquer Ming China. His first step is to subjugate the Ryukyu Kingdom as did Hideyoshi but then goes on to seize Taiwan to use it as a base from which he can attack China. I don't see this as magic bullet that actually lets him conquer China but this does beat the Dutch and Spanish to the punch in Taiwan with possible interesting long term consequences.

 

[Metempsychosis]

Im not sure simply change of leaders would cause any big change on Japanese history.

Oda would unify Japan, then what ?

Likely same policy pursued by Tokugawa Shogunate would be pursued by Oda clan, its not just leader whim but rational decisions.

Invading Korea is a rational decision, considering the vast numbers of now out-of-work soldiers, which he would indeed have to deal with where Tokugawa did not.

 

[Fabius Maximus]

Im not sure simply change of leaders would cause any big change on Japanese history.

Oda would unify Japan, then what ?

Likely same policy pursued by Tokugawa Shogunate would be pursued by Oda clan, its not just leader whim but rational decisions.

For one thing, Oda's policy leaned more towards deposing rival daimyo and annexing their lands, as opposed to Hideyoshi's practice of forcing them to swear fealty but allowing them to keep their lands. An Oda-unified Japan would probably be less feudal and more centralised. This could have important ramifications down the line, including:

(1) The Japanese forces in the Imjin War (assuming it really was Oda's idea) would probably have a better command structure, since the commanders would all be Hideyoshi's appointees instead of bickering feudal warlords who always tried to hog the glory of victory for themselves. This would improve Japan's chances in the conflict (though not necessarily enough to make the Japanese win).

(2) With the not-Shogun being more secure in power, foreign influences like Christianity might seem less threatening, leading to no, or a reduced, sakoku policy.

(3) If sakoku is introduced, then any *Meiji Restoration would go differently to OTL, since there'd be no feudal domains with ready-made armies and bureaucracies to oppose the Shogunate.

 

[Xenophonte]

(1) The Japanese forces in the Imjin War (assuming it really was Oda's idea) would probably have a better command structure, since the commanders would all be Hideyoshi's appointees instead of bickering feudal warlords who always tried to hog the glory of victory for themselves. This would improve Japan's chances in the conflict (though not necessarily enough to make the Japanese win).

Also, anu6y potential loss of prestige and responsibility by any probably defeat would fall entirely on Oda's shoulders...

 

[Monter]

Nobunaga was asked by court nobles to pick one of three titles: Sei-i Taishogun, Kanpaku or Daijo-Daijin, he died one month later without giving an answer.

For the effects of an Oda united Japan, it's hard to really picture, since the upheaval that happened after his death was pretty big, but it is also hard to see it not going the Tokugawa direction simply because the trend of East Asia at the time was closing off and tight control over foreign trade (China and Korea did the same), you should note that although foreign trade declined during the Edo period, domestic trade increased a lot leading to the rise of the merchant/money lending class.

Invading Korea would end up in failure anyway since Japan is grossly outnumbered once the Chinese come in and are short on logistics, unless Nobunaga or Nobutada build a western-class navy, which is hard to see why, anyway unlike Hideyoshi which has to rise from the Oda the clan itself would have a much more secure powerbase and loyalties.

If you want a "open Japan" of sorts your best case is a still tightly controlled trade, but still existing, a reformed version of the red-seals, can't think of a large consequence of it though.

 

[Metempsychosis]

Nobunaga was asked by court nobles to pick one of three titles: Sei-i Taishogun, Kanpaku or Daijo-Daijin, he died one month later without giving an answer.

For the effects of an Oda united Japan, it's hard to really picture, since the upheaval that happened after his death was pretty big, but it is also hard to see it not going the Tokugawa direction simply because the trend of East Asia at the time was closing off and tight control over foreign trade (China and Korea did the same), you should note that although foreign trade declined during the Edo period, domestic trade increased a lot leading to the rise of the merchant/money lending class.

Invading Korea would end up in failure anyway since Japan is grossly outnumbered once the Chinese come in and are short on logistics, unless Nobunaga or Nobutada build a western-class navy, which is hard to see why, anyway unlike Hideyoshi which has to rise from the Oda the clan itself would have a much more secure powerbase and loyalties.

If you want a "open Japan" of sorts your best case is a still tightly controlled trade, but still existing, a reformed version of the red-seals, can't think of a large consequence of it though.

I wonder if things closed off because Japan failed, rather than the other way around. That's why the idea of Japan pulling an Alexander and causing a Diadochi period of discovery appeals to me.

I mean, look at it: China was breaking down at the time, what with corruption being rampant to the point of pirate lords ruling the seas, and Korea itself was a nest of vipers driving out its most competent bureaucrats and soldiers in the name of a fossilized Neo-Confucianism. But for Yi's defense and the Manchu conquest, we could have a radically different East Asia.

If, say, Japan pulls off its invasion and topples both regimes, we could see southern and western Chinese breakaway states forging their own path as in the Age of Disunity that came before the Tang and Song, Japan's daimyos dominating the seas of East Asia and competing with one another, bringing Buddhist and Hindu scriptures directly from India or carrying the Quran back to the land of the rising sun.

 

[Monter]

I wonder if things closed off because Japan failed, rather than the other way around. That's why the idea of Japan pulling an Alexander and causing a Diadochi period of discovery appeals to me.

I mean, look at it: China was breaking down at the time, what with corruption being rampant to the point of pirate lords ruling the seas, and Korea itself was a nest of vipers driving out its most competent bureaucrats and soldiers in the name of a fossilized Neo-Confucianism. But for Yi's defense and the Manchu conquest, we could have a radically different East Asia.

If, say, Japan pulls off its invasion and topples both regimes, we could see southern and western Chinese breakaway states forging their own path as in the Age of Disunity that came before the Tang and Song, Japan's daimyos dominating the seas of East Asia and competing with one another, bringing Buddhist and Hindu scriptures directly from India or carrying the Quran back to the land of the rising sun.

Considering the war happening in the 1590s and the seabans started in the 1630s, not so much other than it just helped the Tokugawa take power.

And the Ming only started collapsing after the war with the Japanese, which put a massive strain on their treasury already plagued by the corruption you stated, without the Imjin it's probably the Ming would stay for a while until their system collapsed on its own weight.

 

[Xenophonte]

unless Nobunaga or Nobutada build a western-class navy, which is hard to see why

If you want a "open Japan" of sorts your best case is a still tightly controlled trade, but still existing, a reformed version of the red-seals, can't think of a large consequence of it though.

Would be possible first that Oda would recognize the advantages of the Western build ships for his war effort? And, if so, would he want or be able to negotiate an alliance with the Portuguese for support?

 

[Fabius Maximus]

And the Ming only started collapsing after the war with the Japanese, which put a massive strain on their treasury already plagued by the corruption you stated, without the Imjin it's probably the Ming would stay for a while until their system collapsed on its own weight.

The Imjin War didn't help matters, but the Ming were already in serious decline beforehand. The Spanish governor of the Philippines estimated that 10-20,000 Spaniards could conquer China; obviously this was a bit on the optimistic side, but it does show how weak contemporaries thought the Chinese government.

Would be possible first that Oda would recognize the advantages of the Western build ships for his war effort? And, if so, would he want or be able to negotiate an alliance with the Portuguese for support?

IIRC Hideyoshi tried to get the Portuguese to lend him a couple of galleons for his Korean war, although unsuccessfully.

 

[Monter]

The Imjin War didn't help matters, but the Ming were already in serious decline beforehand. The Spanish governor of the Philippines estimated that 10-20,000 Spaniards could conquer China; obviously this was a bit on the optimistic side, but it does show how weak contemporaries thought the Chinese government.

You're taking primary sources at face value, Spain couldn't conquer Cambodia on the same time period, Ming is 30 times larger and much more populated, it required 50 years and millions of men for the Manchu to succeed, meanwhile the Japanese got beated by the same Manchu (Jurchen at the time) in a raid on Jianzhou, I'll take those events over the boosterous claims of a Spaniard that didn't live up to his words.

Would be possible first that Oda would recognize the advantages of the Western build ships for his war effort? And, if so, would he want or be able to negotiate an alliance with the Portuguese for support?

Maybe? The relationship with the Iberian powers are going to be... awkward because of the religion thing. The Jesuits were fun and nice to Nobunaga when their influence on his lands were weak and their benefits were strong, Hideyoshi also did the same thing, but problems are going to arise once the Oda consolidates on the west and the Jesuits stop being so useful and become more annoying as well as anti-Christian daimyo start making noise, Nobunaga has enough problems with the monks, he and his successors aren't going to be so nice on the Jesuits as well, which would strain the relationship between Azuchi and the Iberian powers.

 

[Metempsychosis]

Considering the war happening in the 1590s and the seabans started in the 1630s, not so much other than it just helped the Tokugawa take power.

And the Ming only started collapsing after the war with the Japanese, which put a massive strain on their treasury already plagued by the corruption you stated, without the Imjin it's probably the Ming would stay for a while until their system collapsed on its own weight.

The thing is, the corruption of the Ming court was seriously bad already during the time of the Wanli Emperor in the 1570s, having rotted from the 1430s onward, and it took a decade of vicious anti-corruption campaigns led by Grand Secretary Zhang Juzheng and Qi Jiguang to clear out the most egregious rot and the wokou pirates most dangerous to the Ming dynasty's collapse. Even so, its greatest achievement was precisely giving the Ming the means to barely stave off the invasion. Either way, that does not look to me like a dynasty that can be sustained for long. Take away the Wanli Emperor's wisest advisors, and you may well get an earlier collapse.

You're taking primary sources at face value, Spain couldn't conquer Cambodia on the same time period, Ming is 30 times larger and much more populated, it required 50 years and millions of men for the Manchu to succeed, meanwhile the Japanese got beated by the same Manchu (Jurchen at the time) in a raid on Jianzhou, I'll take those events over the boosterous claims of a Spaniard that didn't live up to his words.


Maybe? The relationship with the Iberian powers are going to be... awkward because of the religion thing. The Jesuits were fun and nice to Nobunaga when their influence on his lands were weak and their benefits were strong, Hideyoshi also did the same thing, but problems are going to arise once the Oda consolidates on the west and the Jesuits stop being so useful and become more annoying as well as anti-Christian daimyo start making noise, Nobunaga has enough problems with the monks, he and his successors aren't going to be so nice on the Jesuits as well, which would strain the relationship between Azuchi and the Iberian powers.

Reading about it, the expedition did succeed in establishing a king as a Spanish protectorate, and would have established a foothold in mainland Southeast Asia were the Spaniards not shipwrecked.

As for Japan, it has enough men to succeed in conquering Korea and northern China as Alexander conquered Persia: as a centralized empire, conquering Beijing would be enough to have China under nominal Japanese control, at least until the Japanese regime collapses, all hell breaks loose, and a warlord period begins.

 

[Monter]

The thing is, the corruption of the Ming court was seriously bad already during the time of the Wanli Emperor in the 1570s, having rotted from the 1430s onward, and it took a decade of vicious anti-corruption campaigns led by Grand Secretary Zhang Juzheng and Qi Jiguang to clear out the most egregious rot and the wokou pirates most dangerous to the Ming dynasty's collapse. Even so, its greatest achievement was precisely giving the Ming the means to barely stave off the invasion. Either way, that does not look to me like a dynasty that can be sustained for long. Take away the Wanli Emperor's wisest advisors, and you may well get an earlier collapse.

The Ming didn't "barely" stop the invasion, it stopped, period, the Japanese never got the initiative once the Ming was on the field and even the most inconclusive battles or outright defeats left the Ming in a favorable strategic position, the Ming won, there isn't much ground to argue there. Yeah the Ming was a hot mess, once again it defeated the Japanese anyway, even during the period Yi was sacked.

Reading about it, the expedition did succeed in establishing a king as a Spanish protectorate, and would have established a foothold in mainland Southeast Asia were the Spaniards not shipwrecked.

As for Japan, it has enough men to succeed in conquering Korea and northern China as Alexander conquered Persia: as a centralized empire, conquering Beijing would be enough to have China under nominal Japanese control, at least until the Japanese regime collapses, all hell breaks loose, and a warlord period begins.

There is a difference between organizing what is essentially a coup and actually conquering a country, the Spanish did the former, failed hard on the later, on a kingdom that had been on socio-political strife for over a century and constant battleground between neighbors, there is no way they're conquering China.
For the second point, people like to project Alexander and the Macedonians on Japan for some reason despite those two scenarios been so different it is hilarious. For starters: The Achaemenid wasn't a centralized empire as you claim, quite the opposite it was a decentralized realm bound by the Great King of whom the provincial kings (or satraps) payed tribute, the tributary relation between satrapy and the Great King is what defined Achaemenid rule over the land, the Ming was a bureaucratic empire, the provinces were administrative division of the the realm, headed by a court appointed official that managed the region on Imperial sanction, Ming rule was defined by the bureaucratic apparatus on the land.
And simply taking Beijing doesn't archive what you want, Li Zicheng captured Beijing and got manhandled by the Manchus, in fact the Manchus are much more appropriate here, since unlike Alexander they actually conquered China.
The Manchu conquest started in 1625 by capturing Mukden, went full force by allying with Wu Sangui and capturing Beijing from Li in 1644, and only finished with the end of the Three Feudatories and the conquest of Tongqing in 1681, it took a long, continuous process of 56 years for the Ming to fully collapse, and the Manchus have several advantages over Japan: they were a land power (easy logistics), mobile (the Japanese barely had cavalry), had a long story of military-political relationship with China (Sino-Japanese relations post-Tang were mostly commercial) and most importantly they didn't had competion, a Japan that crosses Korea to Liaoning would have the Jurchen breathing on their neck, yikes.
In the end, there is nothing that indicates Nobunaga could avert all of it, he was a competent guy, no question, but he wasn't that exceptional on this level.

 

[Metempsychosis]

The Ming didn't "barely" stop the invasion, it stopped, period, the Japanese never got the initiative once the Ming was on the field and even the most inconclusive battles or outright defeats left the Ming in a favorable strategic position, the Ming won, there isn't much ground to argue there. Yeah the Ming was a hot mess, once again it defeated the Japanese anyway, even during the period Yi was sacked.

Again, it defeated Japan under the circumstances of a recent revitalization of their economy and military under the Grand Secretary. Had the corruption continued unabated as it did before and after the Imjin War, you'd have warlords and pirate kings running free and roughshod over former Ming lands. And assuming this, the Japanese would have had an easier time taking over Korea and even bits of China, coopting warlords that the Manchus did IOTL. This is what I am arguing. And with Oda Nobunaga at the helm of a more centralized and pacified Japan, it can be argued that China could in fact fall to a Japanese expedition, at least in the short term.

There is a difference between organizing what is essentially a coup and actually conquering a country, the Spanish did the former, failed hard on the later, on a kingdom that had been on socio-political strife for over a century and constant battleground between neighbors, there is no way they're conquering China.

That is fair, and that is also not my main point. Spain colonizing a unified China is definitely out there, though forming concessions and spheres of influence is not out of the question.

For the second point, people like to project Alexander and the Macedonians on Japan for some reason despite those two scenarios been so different it is hilarious. For starters: The Achaemenid wasn't a centralized empire as you claim, quite the opposite it was a decentralized realm bound by the Great King of whom the provincial kings (or satraps) payed tribute, the tributary relation between satrapy and the Great King is what defined Achaemenid rule over the land, the Ming was a bureaucratic empire, the provinces were administrative division of the the realm, headed by a court appointed official that managed the region on Imperial sanction, Ming rule was defined by the bureaucratic apparatus on the land.

I project it because I like the idea of making China more fragmented. The only other big period that I can imagine it fragmenting culturally is the Warring States period, when the idea of China being one is in an embryonic stage. And this is why I'm thinking of this period: can one reverse the trend towards isolationist mercantilism in East Asia? The merchants and pirate kings are there. Perhaps you just need a bit of a push in the opposite direction.

As for the centralized empire thing, I just claimed the late Ming and late Achaemenid Persia as similar because both were relatively easily knocked down, and the regime changes were seemingly relatively painless. Of course both were incredibly more complicated than I made them out to be, but considering the chaos of the Diadochi and the chaos of 17th century China, I think I'm more justified in comparing the two periods, especially in an ATL scenario where Japan occupies China for a brief period before taking the Ming dynasty princes to Kyoto and leaving behind a much larger mess than IOTL.

 

[Anarch King of Dipsodes]

(2) With the not-Shogun being more secure in power, foreign influences like Christianity might seem less threatening, leading to no, or a reduced, sakoku policy.

In which case, Japanese maritime activity in the Western Pacific continues. Given that Japan is in the Pacific, not 20,000 km away in Europe, and is roughly as populous as Portugal, Spain, England, Netherlands, and France combined, the Japanese presence and influence in the region will far outweigh any of those countries and probably all of them together.

The European colonies in the Indies were immensely profitable. If Japanese realize that, what might they do about it?

One question is whether Japan will adopt European ship designs. If they do, the entire dynamic of the Age of Sail is radically changed.

 

[Aluma]

Sorry for the shameless self promotion, but a while ago I made this thread about Hideyoshi having moderate success in the Imjin War and the effects of a "realistic" victory of his there
I think it could serve as a good reference to what Oda's goals might look like if he still went for China, which by itself is not 100 % guaranted

 

[Metempsychosis]

In which case, Japanese maritime activity in the Western Pacific continues. Given that Japan is in the Pacific, not 20,000 km away in Europe, and is roughly as populous as Portugal, Spain, England, Netherlands, and France combined, the Japanese presence and influence in the region will far outweigh any of those countries and probably all of them together.

The European colonies in the Indies were immensely profitable. If Japanese realize that, what might they do about it?

One question is whether Japan will adopt European ship designs. If they do, the entire dynamic of the Age of Sail is radically changed.

BUDDISLAMIC VEDANTA BUSHIDO~