Best Argentine Falklands Strategy

[Dan]

Argentina could have won in my opinion.
The British press let the world know they were coming, so get any and every ocean worthy tub available out and in a picket.
Have them report anything they see and have the Argentine airforce go after the ships as soon as they're in range. A few more transport ships sunk and Britain is stuffed.

Yes, Britain could send more forces. It would take time and would have destroyed Thatcher's government giving Galtieri and his Junta to establish Las Malvinas in a defacto position of Argentine posession.

That could make an interesting TL in itself.

 

[Catspoke]

So the UK has to fight on till it wins (and it will its much richer and has a large defence industry and eventually Nato + Nukes).

JSB

Argentina must have though they would get some level of international support or figured the UK wouldn't bother to fight over such a place.

So the only (seeming forlorn) hope is that Argentina can hold out long enough and cause enough British casualties that they are willing to negotiate or the international community foces negotiations at some point.

So it seems like a fortress Stanley approach seems best, let the British approach and surround the place, inflict casualties with your artillery when the British do attack, use the air foces sparingly and when you do pick soft targets vs missle armed cruisers. Don't even pretend that you are going to take on their navy at sea but as suggested put as much naval assets in Port Stanley or just put the naval weapons there.

 

[Cryhavoc101]

Not just the guns. The Type 42's and Drummond Class Corvettes appear to have had Exocet missiles - yank them off the ships and set them up on trucks. These classes also had torpedoes - yank them off and set them up either as shore batteries or aboard PT boat type craft.

The Type 42's (or Corvettes) might have been put in Port Stanley harbor for AAW defence.

Several Exocets were dismounted and used in this fashion as HMS Glamorgan found to her cost.

In Hugo Bichani's book Razors Edge he suggests that the Junta should have broought the General Belgrano into Port Standly harbour - where her guns would have acted as a deterrance and potentially addressed the British advantage in Artillery range.

 

[jsb]

Argentina must have though they would get some level of international support or figured the UK wouldn't bother to fight over such a place.

So the only (seeming forlorn) hope is that Argentina can hold out long enough and cause enough British casualties that they are willing to negotiate or the international community foces negotiations at some point.

They thought GB would not fight, Once they start fighting its to late for Argentina, but by then they cant easily back out without the junta collapsing.

JSB

 

[Green Painting]

I've read that (although it might be inaccurate) most of the aircrafts of the Argentine Air Force (FAA) took off from Argentine mainland to the war zone.

Maybe a more extensive improvised airstrip system was built on Falklands right after takeover, so that Argentine aircrafts are closer to the war zone?

 

[Catspoke]

A few more transport ships sunk and Britain is stuffed.

Yes, Britain could send more forces. It would take time and would have destroyed Thatcher's government giving Galtieri and his Junta to establish Las Malvinas in a defacto position of Argentine posession.

That could make an interesting TL in itself.

It seems OTL the Argentinian ability to sink ships in the open sea was pretty limited and they lost a lot of planes sinking the few they did (often in restricted waters). How realistic is it that they can sink enough transports and support ships (I dont know. I am asking) to matter.

You have the Atlantic Conveyer incident, but wasn't that an Exocet attack where you have limited of those assets anyway?

 

[Cryhavoc101]

Argentina must have though they would get some level of international support or figured the UK wouldn't bother to fight over such a place.

So the only (seeming forlorn) hope is that Argentina can hold out long enough and cause enough British casualties that they are willing to negotiate or the international community foces negotiations at some point.

So it seems like a fortress Stanley approach seems best, let the British approach and surround the place, inflict casualties with your artillery when the British do attack, use the air foces sparingly and when you do pick soft targets vs missle armed cruisers. Don't even pretend that you are going to take on their navy at sea but as suggested put as much naval assets in Port Stanley or just put the naval weapons there.

The Junta convinced itself that Britain would not fight - in fact they said to the US Envoy trying to end the situation peacfully that Britain would not fight as they had not fought a major battle since WW2 and they were led by a woman (or words to that effect).

For a British Person to understand the Juntas way of thinking its necessary to go "through the looking class" which the majority cannot do - so it is impossible for us to understand them - instead we hear things like this and are amazed at how stupid they were.

If you use your airforce Sparingly then you are surrendering the Air Battle and giving that advantage fully to the British

The Warships were easier targets - the Transports etc where in a cove and more difficult to attack

If you want to rely on your artillery then please remember that the British are masters of it (and have been for a very long time) and out ranged the Argentinians Weapon systems then in use.

And they did use the Fortress Stanley idea (with Mine fields) and their Artillery when the British attacked - they were not as good as the British and this plan did not work in the face of a combination of very good artillery and the worlds finest infantry.

 

[Cryhavoc101]

It seems OTL the Argentinian ability to sink ships in the open sea was pretty limited and they lost a lot of planes sinking the few they did (often in restricted waters). How realistic is it that they can sink enough transports and support ships (I dont know. I am asking) to matter.

You have the Atlantic Conveyer incident, but wasn't that an Exocet attack where you have limited of those assets anyway?

I believe that they had a total of 5 Air launched Exocets

2 Where used on the Sheffield attack (1 Hit Sheffield - 1 Run out of fuel before reaching its target)

2 on the Conveyor Attack (2 Hit) - this was their biggest sucess - Robbed the British 3rd Brigade of its Helo Mobility and lots of tents - they walked and slept in the open instead.

1 used on the Invincable attack (0 Hit)

The Subs were knackered - the newest, a German sub, had not had her Torpedos serviced in 10 years

So Taking on the RN in mid Atlantic is a non starter

I think the Argentines should have invaded - demolished the governors house and then left before the British arrived - blowing a big Rasberry and pulling moonies on the international scene as they did so (this would be a big hit in Latin and South America) and would probably have improved the Juntas image in the eyes of their people.

 

[Catspoke]

I think the Argentines should have invaded - demolished the governors house and then left before the British arrived - blowing a big Rasberry and pulling moonies on the international scene as they did so (this would be a big hit in Latin and South America) and would probably have improved the Juntas image in the eyes of their people.

Makes sense. The only other thing I can think politically to do is just leave a force of 1000 marines on Pebble Island or someplace on West Falkland and start building an airfield. Maybe that would play ok on the international diplomatic scene and make it look bad if the British attacked you there after evacuating everywhere else peacefully.

 

[Catspoke]

And they did use the Fortress Stanley idea (with Mine fields) and their Artillery when the British attacked - they were not as good as the British and this plan did not work in the face of a combination of very good artillery and the worlds finest infantry.

So the Argentians probably already had the best plan they could do then. With the exception that the naval manuevers that led to the General Belgrano being sunk were really silly to try. It would have been better to stick her in Stanley as suggested.

 

[Kevin C. Smith]

Assuming that the Argentines base their defense on holding out until the UK gives up (as opposed to defeating in open battle), what is the limit of British ability to support the task force in the South Atlantic without using the Falklands themselves as a base?

 

[jsb]

I think the Argentines should have invaded - demolished the governors house and then left before the British arrived - blowing a big Rasberry and pulling moonies on the international scene as they did so (this would be a big hit in Latin and South America) and would probably have improved the Juntas image in the eyes of their people.

I like invade (no UK KIA so can be forgiven, and can the Argentinian KIA can be hidden ?) then declare independence/freedom for the Malvinas then retreat, I think the RN may well return but without any military challenge they may accept the status of having the island as unmilitarised. (say just have an unarmed Antarctic survey UK presence ? it will save lots of cash )

So the junta gets a propaganda bonus but northing really happens and the islands get (pro British) independence. This is by far the best post 2nd POD for the Argentinians.

JSB

 

[Sazzer]

Reallocating a stronger element of it's air-force to the Falklands seems like a good idea making it more of a home game for them. Also a more attacking 'Nelson type' approach for their naval forces, sink one carrier and the RN has a major problem.
The real answer though is nothing much is going to change the outcome, the UK are not going to loose or be allowed to loose by it's allies (I seem to remember the US offering the UK government use of a carrier worst case scenario). Argentina's plan was a quick symbolic occupation, not a war with one of NATO's big men. As well as her forces being unprepared for a major conflict, they were constantly worried about Chile's intentions on her border so were forced to keep forces there too.

 

[WILDGEESE]

For the Argies to win the Falklands, all they needed to do was keep quiet for around 12 months while Sir John Nott slashed the RN to the bone and flogged HMS Hermes & Invincible to the India and the Aussies respectively.

They could've recovered the Falklands without reply from us Brits.

 

[Slowpoke]

For the Argies to win the Falklands, all they needed to do was keep quiet for around 12 months while Sir John Nott slashed the RN to the bone and flogged HMS Hermes & Invincible to the India and the Aussies respectively.

They could've recovered the Falklands without reply from us Brits.

Unfortunately for them, domestic discontent over the junta's overall 'performance' as rulers of Argentina was growing steadily. They hoped to gain a quick Hail Mary from the rally-around-the-flag effect.

 

[CalBear]

Retreat.

Fast.

Find Scapegoat.

Fast.

 

[Cryhavoc101]

For the Argies to win the Falklands, all they needed to do was keep quiet for around 12 months while Sir John Nott slashed the RN to the bone and flogged HMS Hermes & Invincible to the India and the Aussies respectively.

They could've recovered the Falklands without reply from us Brits.

Ah yes that act of treason that was John Nott's 1981 Defence White Paper

 

[bsmart]

For the Argies to win the Falklands, all they needed to do was keep quiet for around 12 months while Sir John Nott slashed the RN to the bone and flogged HMS Hermes & Invincible to the India and the Aussies respectively.

They could've recovered the Falklands without reply from us Brits.

Not only the RN but the last of the Vulcans would have been retired in that year so no Black Buck missions. I also think the Victors were due to be retired once the Vulcans were gone but I'm not sure about that.

 

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

The junta executes the ringleaders of the stupid conspiracy, why did that small group of low level navel officers attack the UK ? General apologies (without admitting guilt or that the islands are anything but Argentinian !).

but seriously this is the best they can do.

JSB

I agree with this.

 

[MalcontentRex]

Only way Argentina can win this one is if Thatcher castrates herself and gives up.

I'm not sure that Argentina and the other rogue nations in 1982 (South Africa, North Korea, etc.) combined can beat England if she really wants to win.