Alratan said:
We're looking set for a much more multi-polar world than OTL. Some thoughts on th losers.
Perhaps, perhaps...
Russia:
Assuming that the Russian Republic was established in relatively peacful circumstances - no Russian Civil War or Bolshevik Second Revolution,
This is my operating assumption. While not exactly peaceful, it was swift, with most levels of society in agreement that the rank incompetance at the top needed to be removed.
then the pre-war level of growth should continue. It will take a knock due to being cut off from the French capital it used to industrialise, but this might help in the long run by forcing the development of local banking system.
Generally agree.
The aftermath of the war also coincides with the end of the 5 years economic trough in Russia that followed Witte's economic reforms and investements, when the big structural changes and investements were just about to come to fruition. The new goverment will reap the benefits of the previous Tsarist economic pain, and so should get a big boost to popular support and legitimacy.
Yes. Funny how that worked out...
Russia no longer has to pay to police Central Europe, which will also help. We're probably looking at 6% growth rates in Russia.
Maybe not quite 6% in the short term (remember they still have to deal with that cut-off of French capital, but they'll make do), but yeah, I see some improving times ahead for the Russian Republic.
This will encourage the other European Powers (particualrly Britain, where growth was much lower) to significantly raise their game, and may provide the extra motivation needed for reform.
Perhaps indeed.
By the late 20s, assuming no general war,
That you may assume.
Russia will probably have an industry as big as the Central Powers (Germany, A-H, Italy, + minor Allies) put together.
Don't know about that. Maybe bigger than Germany or A-H separately. They are still likely to be ahead of Russia in industrialization, but Russia has become the breadbasket of Europe.
By this point many of the Balkan states will probably have fallen back within the historical Russian sphere of influence.
By the 1920s? Possibly. However, what does that really MEAN at this point? Now we have a number of Balkan states that are still semi-conservative monarchies looking towards an economically booming republic.
What influence do you think that might have on those Balkan states?
Russia has a very bright future if it can avoid a second revolution or another premature war.
I think that's possible.
France:
France will consider itself to have had a bad war. It entered it in defense of an ally, and was then left in the lurch when that ally succumbed to revolution. It losts the great bulk of its overseas colonies for nothing.
And Alsace Lorraine is still in the hands of the Boche!
On the up side, European France was untouched, and very little fighting happened on home soil.
True. That's important.
There are a couple of ways this can go, but if France keeps its head down it's best bet is to allow itself to be bribed back into a grand anti-Russian alliance, as the threat of bear becomes more and more obvious whilst France's vulnerability to blockade and invasion if it aligns with Russia remains constant.
Ah, but will the Anglo-German Alliance feel that they NEED France at this point?
The other approach, of autarky and Fortress France, will just lead to economic difficulties.
Oh. Sorry to hear that, because I think that is exactly the way that France is heading. If you take into accout the War of 1870, they've lost twice now in a match-up against the Germans. Actually, they didn't do so bad against them this time, but the lesson of the war they will receive is that going on the offensive got them mauled, playing defense worked like a charm.
I can still see a Maginot Line type defense in France's future.
I can also see them going a bit isolationist and focusing on developing internally and what's left of the French outre mer.
The best France can do is to be an equal partner in some grand European Alliance system,
Don't see it happening, at least not in the next few decades.
it can become a 1st/2nd Tier Power again if its sufficiently patient and careful.
This part is true, I believe. More 2nd Tier, I believe.
The Ottoman Empire
I'm still unclear where Glen intends to go here. I think it likely that the Ottomans are going to loose their capital to British naval assault in the opening stages of the war (even if no one has yet to agree with me). Even if (as is quite likely), the British give it back after the war,
Ah yes, that is a bone of contention, isn't it. Perhaps we can just say that the British had other strategic priorities, and with its overwhelming dominance of the sealanes they didn't see the need to take Istambul or the staits given their utter naval dominance (pre-Dreadnought they rule). Or just imagine they gave it back if you must sleep well at night.
I wouldn't have minded seeing Istambul in the hands of the British by war's end, but there's just not enough concensus on this to do that, IMO.
this depends on who to give it back to. An event such as this would severly damage central authority in the Empire, and could well lead to a period of warlordism (even without this, it's quite possible. In this era, given the military disparity, there aren't likely for there to be any war heroes to rally around).
Ah, but unlike OTL, Anatolia itself didn't receive occupying troops, and the losses were all out on the periphery. Heavy losses in some ways to be sure, but also means that there are less Arabs for the Turks to need to suppress.
Oddly enough, we see here what happened OTL, the Young Turks coming to power, except a wee bit earlier, and due to the failure of the Ottomans in the war. Mehmed V is now Sultan, and a puppet.
This is likely to result in an eventual independant Armenia,
Actually not. The same people are now in power who brought you the first blush of the Armenian Genocide.
Britain installing its own government in Constantinople so there's someone to make peace with, and warlords in the hinterlands.
The war just wasn't long enough nor the losses of the Ottoman Empire severe enough (almost, but not quite) to cause such a collapse. Even if Constantinople were captured, I think the government could survive (though that would be towards the end of the war anyway).
The Turks could play the part that Russia did post OTL WW I. In any case, it's going to be the terminally ill man of Europe at best.
Rather, it is going to be a rather mixed bag, with lots of innovation and secularization, but also oppression and outright genocide of non-Turkish minorities who get too bothersome.
Well, maybe its a little bit like OTL post WWI Russia...