Anglo-German Alliance

[stevep]

Your points are well taken. As I currently have it, the Ottomans retain Constantinople (Istanbul) but lose nearly everything else in Europe, including the European shore of the Dardenelles, which Bulgaria occupied.

Istanbul has historically been a tough nut to crack. If the Powers couldn't hold onto it after WWI...

Also, for the British to take it in 1905, we're talking amphibious assault, and that's not a good year for it...

What do people think likely (not wanting, but likely)?

I would say that if Britain takes the city they will mainly be concerned with keeping it out of Russian hands. Given the traditional, although recently reversed, Bulgarian link to Russia and the degree of pro-Greek bias in much of British education I would suspect Greece would be the most likely beneficiary. Also they could be said to have an historical claim.

Given the fact I think the bulk of the population was Turkish and historical links with them as well it could however still be in their hands with little interest for Britain in upsetting the apple-cart so to speak. Depends on whether they think there is a strong point to actually [trying to] seize it rather than just taking other parts of the empire.

Steve

 

[stevep]

Austria Hungary invested heavily in the areas under their control.

FJ Will take your word for that. Thought the empire was fairly strapped for cash for most of its final years with heavy defence spending.

German was the official language of command for all the Austrian forces. The Hungarians wanted a right to command Hungarian forces in their own tongue, but Franz Josef realized where that path led and vetoed it.

I agree but how reliably could all the soldiers understand it. Also I still argue that the lower standard of education, especially in the non-German populations was a major problem for military efficiency.

The Slavs were for the majority loyal to the Monarchy: the Croats, Slovenes and Poles fought heroically for the Empire until the end, and only the Czechs exhibited a dubious loyalty. However, no one wanted to leave the Empire before WWI, because they realized they were much better off with the Habsburgs. Even the Czechs, the most vocal group, wanted only to modify the existing structure so they had an equal say compared to the Hungarians. In 1917 they got the British to promise only that in the peace they would assure the Czechs a federated status. After the Brusilov offensive which almost destroyed the Imperial and Royal Army the Czechs and everyone else moved progressively towards the idea of independence.

I will agree that with a few exceptions there was a lot of loyalty towards the empire. It was not always that effficient but it gave a measure of security and stability and treated the various populations better than the Germans or Russians were likely to, as future years in OTL showed.

Steve

 

[Glen]

I suspect the Republic of China will procede through the first couple years of the 1910s somewhat parallel to OTL, though with subtle differences. The Revolutionaries are a bit more organized and in control (just) due to the fact that the revolution began on schedule and not due to an accident. However, I think the politics will more or less play out the same until we hit the period around the Second Revolution: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Republic_of_China#Second_Revolution

Here, the big differences will start because Yuan will really have to deal solely with the Alliance; Britain, Germany and Japan particularly. I think this will mean less money loaned for his personal army, and even worse concessions to the Germans, British, and to a lesser extent, Japanese than OTL. However, he won't have to make any concessions to the Russians and to a lesser degree, French.

In fact, after much thought I think the Russian Republic over this decade is going to become the Chinese Republic's best friend...

 

[Glen]

I suspect the Republic of China will procede through the first couple years of the 1910s somewhat parallel to OTL, though with subtle differences. The Revolutionaries are a bit more organized and in control (just) due to the fact that the revolution began on schedule and not due to an accident. However, I think the politics will more or less play out the same until we hit the period around the Second Revolution: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Republic_of_China#Second_Revolution

Here, the big differences will start because Yuan will really have to deal solely with the Alliance; Britain, Germany and Japan particularly. I think this will mean less money loaned for his personal army, and even worse concessions to the Germans, British, and to a lesser extent, Japanese than OTL. However, he won't have to make any concessions to the Russians and to a lesser degree, French.

In fact, after much thought I think the Russian Republic over this decade is going to become the Chinese Republic's best friend...

Forgot to continue.

Anyway, I think by the time TTL's Second Revolution breaks out, conditions will have diverged enough from OTL's that the Revolutionaries will be able to prevail, though barely. Likely negotiated settlement but with the removal of Yuan from power and the continuation of the Republic.

Note that ITTL The Republic of China will hold onto Tanna Tuva and all of Mongolia.

Still there is the overall fate of Tibet. Britain may be given greater control over it even than OTL due to their being less people for Yuan to get the loan from. However, after the Second Revolution the Republic will want to exert their authority as much as possible over all of 'China'.

 

[tinfoil]

Your points are well taken. As I currently have it, the Ottomans retain Constantinople (Istanbul) but lose nearly everything else in Europe, including the European shore of the Dardenelles, which Bulgaria occupied.

Istanbul has historically been a tough nut to crack. If the Powers couldn't hold onto it after WWI...

Also, for the British to take it in 1905, we're talking amphibious assault, and that's not a good year for it...

What do people think likely (not wanting, but likely)?

Is it possible/likely for Istanbul to be declared a free city-state? The Russians may be able to exert enough influence with the Ottomans to get this concession from the Alliance, and the Germans may lobby to deny it to the Greeks or Austrians (or the British, if they are looking far enough ahead). Its largely turkish-leaning population allow the Ottomans much influence.

Germany may have a strong interest in denying the British control over yet-still-another naval chokepoint.

With Germany, Turkey, Britain, Greece, Austria-Hungary, Russia and the Balkans all eyeing this new 'state', this might well serve as your flash-point for the 'next-generation' war.

Maybe the USA could nominally administer it as a protectorate, just to drag them in too

 

[Glen]

Is it possible/likely for Istanbul to be declared a free city-state? The Russians may be able to exert enough influence with the Ottomans to get this concession from the Alliance, and the Germans may lobby to deny it to the Greeks or Austrians (or the British, if they are looking far enough ahead). Its largely turkish-leaning population allow the Ottomans much influence.

Germany may have a strong interest in denying the British control over yet-still-another naval chokepoint.

With Germany, Turkey, Britain, Greece, Austria-Hungary, Russia and the Balkans all eyeing this new 'state', this might well serve as your flash-point for the 'next-generation' war.

Maybe the USA could nominally administer it as a protectorate, just to drag them in too

All interesting ideas, but I think not for this timeline. Time will tell about the rest, but I think the current timeline up to 1911 will stand.

 

[stevep]

I suspect the Republic of China will procede through the first couple years of the 1910s somewhat parallel to OTL, though with subtle differences. The Revolutionaries are a bit more organized and in control (just) due to the fact that the revolution began on schedule and not due to an accident. However, I think the politics will more or less play out the same until we hit the period around the Second Revolution: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Republic_of_China#Second_Revolution

Here, the big differences will start because Yuan will really have to deal solely with the Alliance; Britain, Germany and Japan particularly. I think this will mean less money loaned for his personal army, and even worse concessions to the Germans, British, and to a lesser extent, Japanese than OTL. However, he won't have to make any concessions to the Russians and to a lesser degree, French.

In fact, after much thought I think the Russian Republic over this decade is going to become the Chinese Republic's best friend...

Glen

What concessions are you thinking of. Britain and the US preferred a stable China they could trade with, especially with Britain’s domination of much of the Chinese market. Hence our opposition to any partitions or spheres of influence. Possibly a could more naval bases but probably not necessary with the alliance victorious, which means a lot less concern about our rivals gaining territory.

Japan made the 15 demands in 1916 but that was a later and much stronger Japan. Furthermore this was only possible because the European powers were tied up in WWI. In this scenario I doubt Japan will be in a position to try anything like that and if it did it would probably find itself pretty isolated.

Thinking in the medium term, say a decade or so, there may be less commonality between Japan and its European allies. With Russia defeated each has less need for the other and if the Japanese start getting overly aggressive toward China there will be some tension to put it mildly.

Steve

 

[Glen]

Glen

What concessions are you thinking of. Britain and the US preferred a stable China they could trade with, especially with Britain’s domination of much of the Chinese market. Hence our opposition to any partitions or spheres of influence. Possibly a could more naval bases but probably not necessary with the alliance victorious, which means a lot less concern about our rivals gaining territory.

I was thinking more of a firming up of what they already had; perhaps outright cession of Tibet and/or granting a 'perpetual' lease or ownership of Hong Kong.

Japan made the 15 demands in 1916 but that was a later and much stronger Japan. Furthermore this was only possible because the European powers were tied up in WWI. In this scenario I doubt Japan will be in a position to try anything like that and if it did it would probably find itself pretty isolated.

There will be no 15 demands here.

Thinking in the medium term, say a decade or so, there may be less commonality between Japan and its European allies. With Russia defeated each has less need for the other and if the Japanese start getting overly aggressive toward China there will be some tension to put it mildly.

Steve

Maybe. Then again Russia isn't out yet. A decade or so from now they might seem a lot more impressive. Especially side by side with a China that is reforming, not in chaos. Japan recall has a lot of territory both of those would dearly like, so Japan may not want to lose their allies.

Only time will tell....

 

[Glen]

I think we'll see OTL US presidents mostly up to the first administration of Woodrow Wilson. I don't think he wins a second term, however.

 

[Glen]

In 1911-12 the Irish Home Rule bill would go into effect, delayed slightly in implementation over the status of the Northern counties of Ireland. The final compromise was that 6 of the counties would remain under the direct control of London on a 'temporary' basis which would be negotiated over the next few years.

Home Rule would have many effects. It was seen as a victory for nationalists in providing for greater autonomy for Ireland, mollifying all but the most hard line nationalists. Few wanted to take on the superpower of the Imperial British government when they were receiving so much already.

The Unionists, however, would be fractured over the next few years. The first fissure was between Unionists in the North and those in the rest of Ireland, who felt the acceptance of prominant Unionists in the North of the 'compromise' was a selling out of their interests. They were left with little choice but to begin working to establish a niche for their minority within the Irish Parliament and government.

However, the North itself was fractured on this issue, though the vast majority preferred the relative protection of the 'temporary' measure to outright rebellion. But not all felt this way, and a militant faction began smuggling in arms even before the final passage of the act from the French Fourth Republic.

When this arms smuggling from France was discovered in 1913, it led to a major scandal in the United Kingdom and a crisis with France. While things eventually were settled, the political fallout amounted to a discrediting of the more extreme Unionists within the United Kingdom as unpatriotic and thuggish, and the fall of the conservative French government and the resergence of the French left. It wasn't the arms smuggling that most French objected to, but being caught and bringing the still recouperating nation to the brink of war with the Anglo-German Alliance, this time with no counter alliance to help even the odds.

By 1915, it was determined that a referendum would be held in Ireland in 10 years' time for each county to decide on direct rule by the Imperial Parliament or under the intermediary of the Irish Parliament.

 

[Alratan]

Istanbul has historically been a tough nut to crack. If the Powers couldn't hold onto it after WWI...

It never fell in WW I in OTL, the Dardanelles campaign failed... As I say above, in this alt-WW I it will fall. It was touch and go in the first Balkan war, and if the Balkan powers are being supplied by the British it's all over, as it was Balkan alliance weakness in artillery which saved it the first time round. Also, the Dardanelles do not have modern defences at this point. The Royal Navy can take the city almost (not quite, but getting on for it) at their lesiure. They probably will as well, given that by doing so they bottle up the Russian Black Seas fleet (what there is of it), to prevent it going commerce rading on British shipping to the East.

I would say that if Britain takes the city they will mainly be concerned with keeping it out of Russian hands. Given the traditional, although recently reversed, Bulgarian link to Russia and the degree of pro-Greek bias in much of British education I would suspect Greece would be the most likely beneficiary. Also they could be said to have an historical claim.

I completely agree with this, I think the suggestion of a Free City under British administration is possible, but it is also possible that they will just give it back to the Ottoman Empire post war in return for concessions elsewhere (pissing off their Balkan Allies, but why should they care - that's the Austro-Hungarians' mess)

Given the fact I think the bulk of the population was Turkish and historical links with them as well it could however still be in their hands with little interest for Britain in upsetting the apple-cart so to speak. Depends on whether they think there is a strong point to actually [trying to] seize it rather than just taking other parts of the empire. Steve

As I say above, the British will want to control the Dardanelles themselves for the duration of the war, and holding Constantinople will do that.

 

[Glen]

It never fell in WW I in OTL, the Dardanelles campaign failed... As I say above, in this alt-WW I it will fall. It was touch and go in the first Balkan war, and if the Balkan powers are being supplied by the British it's all over, as it was Balkan alliance weakness in artillery which saved it the first time round. Also, the Dardanelles do not have modern defences at this point. The Royal Navy can take the city almost (not quite, but getting on for it) at their lesiure. They probably will as well, given that by doing so they bottle up the Russian Black Seas fleet (what there is of it), to prevent it going commerce rading on British shipping to the East. I completely agree with this, I think the suggestion of a Free City under British administration is possible, but it is also possible that they will just give it back to the Ottoman Empire post war in return for concessions elsewhere (pissing off their Balkan Allies, but why should they care - that's the Austro-Hungarians' mess) As I say above, the British will want to control the Dardanelles themselves for the duration of the war, and holding Constantinople will do that.

Its an interesting point. So Altaran seems to think that Istanbul can fall both from better supplied Balkan forces by land and from inadequate defenses to the British by Sea.

I would like to here thoughts from others on this.

 

[M.Passit]

Even if Istanbul become a free-city, do anyone want to bear a price maintaining it as a free-city?. It seem to me that the city is the piece that everyone want. Maybe just give it to someone and hope for the best?

Nice work, Glen. How's the mood in France now and in the future? Rapproachment with the Alliance or outright revanchist when things go strained.

 

[Glen]

Even if Istanbul become a free-city, do anyone want to bear a price maintaining it as a free-city?. It seem to me that the city is the piece that everyone want. Maybe just give it to someone and hope for the best?

As much as I like seeing Istanbul go elsewhere, I think the most likely is for it to remain Ottoman, unless I here more voices arguing for it to be taken in the war.

Nice work, Glen.

Thank you.

How's the mood in France now and in the future? Rapproachment with the Alliance or outright revanchist when things go strained.

I think that France will fluctuate between the two. However, they are going to have their own issues to deal with in the interim.

Like Algeria....

 

[Glen]

In 1912, the Social Democrats for the first time won a commanding plurality of the seats in the Reichstag. While Kaiser Wilhelm III wanted to maintain a more conservative Chancellor and ministries, he was warned that any government excluding the Social Democrats could cause significant unrest throughout the German Realm. Finally, the Kaiser relented and a coalition including the Social Democrats and Centre Party was allowed to form a govenment with Kaiser Wilhelm III acceding to one of their nominees as Chancellor. Over the next several years, a renewed emphasis within the German Realm was placed on domestic issues.

 

[Glen]

bump....

....need more commentary to feed the machine, people. Want to make this as realistic and globally comprehensive a timeline as possible....

 

[OperationGreen]

In 1912, the Social Democrats for the first time won a commanding plurality of the seats in the Reichstag. While Kaiser Wilhelm III wanted to maintain a more conservative Chancellor and ministries, he was warned that any government excluding the Social Democrats could cause significant unrest throughout the German Realm. Finally, the Kaiser relented and a coalition including the Social Democrats and Centre Party was allowed to form a govenment with Kaiser Wilhelm III acceding to one of their nominees as Chancellor. Over the next several years, a renewed emphasis within the German Realm was placed on domestic issues.

Will there be a Future Change in the German Constitution to make it more Democratic?, and This "Renewed Emphasis" on Domestic Issues, Is Germany turning away for the Bismarck Line of the " honest Broker" and been more Isolationist?

 

[Glen]

Will there be a Future Change in the German Constitution to make it more Democratic?

Not for a long while, I think. The changes will be far more gradual than that, more in keeping with the liberalization of the British government OTL in the 19th and early 20th century.

, and This "Renewed Emphasis" on Domestic Issues, Is Germany turning away for the Bismarck Line of the " honest Broker" and been more Isolationist?

Nope. They are however out of the expansion game for the time being, more interested in consolidation and renovation of the Fatherland.

 

[Glen]

In 1912, the Taishō Emperor assumed the throne of the Empire of Japan. General Katsura Tarō continued in his role as prime minister during the transition. Japan was absorbed in the process of taking in the conquests of the war, while at the same time eying with concern the events in China. At the same time, domestic unrest caused the slow liberalization of the political process within the Empire.

-- So basically OTL for Japan except they are more active in Northern Mainland Asia, and less involved in China. There's no window of opportunity here for them to make their fifteen demands.

 

[OperationGreen]

In 1912, the Taishō Emperor assumed the throne of the Empire of Japan. General Katsura Tarō continued in his role as prime minister during the transition. Japan was absorbed in the process of taking in the conquests of the war, while at the same time eying with concern the events in China. At the same time, domestic unrest caused the slow liberalization of the political process within the Empire.

-- So basically OTL for Japan except they are more active in Northern Mainland Asia, and less involved in China. There's no window of opportunity here for them to make their fifteen demands.

Will Japan look to Remain on Friendly Terms With Germany and Britain in the future?