AHC: Japanese Civil War

[PhilippeO]

Originally Posted by chornedsnorkack
I did not state that.

Ops. Sorry.

Originally Posted by chornedsnorkack
No, it can happen with either side in control of Kyoto.
Treating the case Tokugawa controls Kyoto:
...
So if the Tokugawa undertake the Third Choshu Expedition, that might be a stalemate.

Choshu managed to defeat Second Choshu Expedition because technological superiority and many daimyo in Tokugawa side is half-hearted.

If Tokugawa successfully control Kyoto there are new problem

1 > Tokugawa started modernization on its army with French help

2 > British might cease supporting Choshu if realize Tokugawa "winning".

3 > Other Daimyo might support Tokugawa more enthusiastically after Tokugawa "victory" in Kyoto

4 > if Tokugawa gain control of Imperial Palace, new Emperor might have no choice but support Tokugawa propaganda, causing lost of support for Choshu

5 > Population quantity : Not sure about this, but did Choshu and Satsuma actually have population to fight Tokugawa ? doesn't fertile Osaka plain and Kanto plain is where large number of Japanese live ? Hideyoshi fast conguest of Kyushu in 15c seems indicate that southerner didn't have number to actually continue fight once someone successfully consolidate central Japan.

without Kyoto, it looks less "civil war" rather than "local rebellion supported by British". even if Choshu winning in Third Choshu, wouldn't Tokugawa number alone is enough to eventually overwhelm Choshu.

Shogunate need not. Prince Kitashirakawa Yoshihisa was under their control in Edo OTL as per a long standing policy, and he duly was made Emperor by northern alliance.

WI the PoD is that the Tokugawa win the battle of Toba-Fushimi, and the defeated Satsuma-Choshu forces do not succeed in picking up emperor Meiji in their retreat, but do carry away prince Yoshiaki?

is Japanese going to accept several emperor while Meiji alive ? Meiji is previous emperor only child. and shinnoke usually "adopted" by childless emperor while they still small children. Declaring new emperor while Meiji still alive is not going to be easily accepted.

 

[chornedsnorkack]

The Japanese dialects West and South of Kansai are conservative compared to Kansai and North of it is quite phonologically identical to Ainu perhaps a two way split could work..I think there would be a Three way split to Japanese - Honshu Japanese, Southern Japanese(Kyushuan) and Ryukyuan

Kammon Strait is not a particularly sound defensive line against an attacker with navy - and Tokugawa navy did win the battle of Awa as per OTL even while losing at Toba-Fushimi. And the Choshu forces, both retreating from Toba-Fushimi and those left at home, will NOT be wishing to abandon their homes and fortifications in Choshu. They defeated Tokugawa attack back in 1866, they will be hoping to defeat the attack again.

Would the Choshu forces after defeat at Toba-Fushimi attempt to seize defensible places in Honshu to make a better defence against expected Tokugawa attack?

 

[mlp]

How about this:
1. Shogunate industrializes more quickly than OTL
2. Due to tactical error, Choshu-Satsuma wins TF battle despite numerical inferiority
3. Less than 1 month later, Shogunate tries to take back Kyoto- results in stalemate
4. thinking Emperor supports Choshu-Satsuma alliance, Shogunate declares new emperor (Emperor Komei's other sons survive ITTL)
5. Civil war drags on for over 9 months, without much assurance who will win (Shogunate tries Third Choshu Expedition,etc)
6. alliances between daimyos weaken, finances dwindle
7. Ainu revolt in Hokkaido forces Shogunate to send fleet/army there
8. Several daimyos, thinking now is chance, kidnap another prince in Edo and proclaim third Japanese Empire (a specific region in Japan, pushing Choshu-Satsuma-Hokkaido-Ryukyu aside, that always wanted to become independent?)
9. Satsuma, mad at Choshu that its plans didn't work, wage war against it. Choshu declares Japanese Republic.
10. Despite Shogunate's efforts, Hokkaido becomes independent (Kingdom of Ezo)
11. Ryukyu breaks off from Choshu, becomes Ryukyu kingdom
would this be a better thought TL than before- or the same bad quality?

 

[chornedsnorkack]

would this be a better thought TL than before- or the same bad quality?

Same bad quality.

How about this:
1. Shogunate industrializes more quickly than OTL

Unnecessarily early PoD, would have excessive butterflies by January 1868 - TF battle might be too different. But acceptable that far.

2. Due to tactical error, Choshu-Satsuma wins TF battle despite numerical inferiority

Considering the debacle the OTL TF battle was, slightly more industrialized shogunate would not need to alter the outcome. What matters is resolute action. So it may be lacking at that point TTL as per OTL.

3. Less than 1 month later, Shogunate tries to take back Kyoto- results in stalemate

OTL, they did not have the forces for counterattack.

But what they COULD have done was stop the attack of Imperial forces against Edo. OTL, it took about 2 months to reach Kofu. Resolute action, that the supporters of Tokugawa were urging, might have led to a stalemate - even to successful defence of Nagoya.

4. thinking Emperor supports Choshu-Satsuma alliance, Shogunate declares new emperor (Emperor Komei's other sons survive ITTL)

Not necessary. Tokugawa did have Prince Yoshihisa as per OTL, and he is all the emperor they need.

5. Civil war drags on for over 9 months, without much assurance who will win (Shogunate tries Third Choshu Expedition,etc)

Their first aim would be to recover Kansai.

6. alliances between daimyos weaken, finances dwindle
7. Ainu revolt in Hokkaido forces Shogunate to send fleet/army there
8. Several daimyos, thinking now is chance, kidnap another prince in Edo and proclaim third Japanese Empire (a specific region in Japan, pushing Choshu-Satsuma-Hokkaido-Ryukyu aside, that always wanted to become independent?)

Um, Edo is where the Shogunate emperor is.

9. Satsuma, mad at Choshu that its plans didn't work, wage war against it. Choshu declares Japanese Republic.

Satsuma did OTL rebel in 1877. With Tokugawa safely stalemated in Kanto, fighting among themselves may seem a viable option for Choshu-Satsuma alliance... but none of them would declare republic, I suspect.

10. Despite Shogunate's efforts, Hokkaido becomes independent (Kingdom of Ezo)

They do not exactly have the leadership to do so.

11. Ryukyu breaks off from Choshu, becomes Ryukyu kingdom

Um, Ryukyu WAS Kingdom till 1879. And had nothing to do with Choshu, but with Satsuma.

Tied down with fighting against Tokugawa, Satsuma would probably try and let sleeping dogs lie, keep Ryukyu as vassal kingdom. Tokugawa might use their OTL naval advantage to weaken Satsuma and assert their claim to be the legal rulers of Japan. And Ryukyu might try to claim neutrality, or complete independence from Japan and dependence on China alone.

 

[mlp]

Same bad quality.

at least I tried.

Unnecessarily early PoD, would have excessive butterflies by January 1868 - TF battle might be too different. But acceptable that far.

What I was trying to do, obviously, was to establish a "balance of power" between the Shogunate and Satcho alliance. I thought that, because the Shogunate was less modernized, it lost the TF battle. Therefore, I thought modernizing Shogunate early enough would help that imbalance.

Considering the debacle the OTL TF battle was, slightly more industrialized shogunate would not need to alter the outcome. What matters is resolute action. So it may be lacking at that point TTL as per OTL.

So, my statement above explains why I did so. And seems resolute action is as good as modernization- which means I'd go for resolute action of the shogunate.

OTL, they did not have the forces for counterattack. But what they COULD have done was stop the attack of Imperial forces against Edo. OTL, it took about 2 months to reach Kofu. Resolute action, that the supporters of Tokugawa were urging, might have led to a stalemate - even to successful defence of Nagoya.

Alright then. stalemate at Nagoya.

Not necessary. Tokugawa did have Prince Yoshihisa as per OTL, and he is all the emperor they need.

What I wanted was more legitimacy, as Yoshihisa was adopted by Komei emperor. And it was possible for me to do so, since the POD I was planning was in 1800 and I didn't want to change anything else.

Their first aim would be to recover Kansai.

why? would it not be easier to simply attack Choshu and Satsuma directly?

Um, Edo is where the Shogunate emperor is.

two things about that. shogunate is not an emperor; I'm quite sure you knew that. second, I said Edo because, in my previous assumption that Shogunate forces recapture Kyoto, it is possible that there are multiple princes in Edo- and that one of them was "persuaded" to go somewhere else.(I know that's impossible, but let's keep it that way for a bit)

Satsuma did OTL rebel in 1877. With Tokugawa safely stalemated in Kanto, fighting among themselves may seem a viable option for Choshu-Satsuma alliance... but none of them would declare republic, I suspect.

I stated republic because one of the two province(I forge which) was more liberal than the other, fact being the influential individuals of the province studied in France.

They do not exactly have the leadership to do so.

They do not need the leadership, I think...this is before the Russia-Turkish War, and Russia has capability of supporting a Ezo government. This would also be in favour for the US since it needed a whale fishing base.

Um, Ryukyu WAS Kingdom till 1879. And had nothing to do with Choshu, but with Satsuma. Tied down with fighting against Tokugawa, Satsuma would probably try and let sleeping dogs lie, keep Ryukyu as vassal kingdom. Tokugawa might use their OTL naval advantage to weaken Satsuma and assert their claim to be the legal rulers of Japan. And Ryukyu might try to claim neutrality, or complete independence from Japan and dependence on China alone.

My mistake. I accidentally thought the two provinces the other way. So, what I meant was that Ryukyu, using the chaos for its own good, becomes independent (maybe with the support of the Shogunate?) and claims neutrality.
Hope that answered some questions that I was too busy to do so for a long time...

 

[PhilippeO]

this might be helpful

A Modern History of Japan: From Tokugawa Times to the Present free ebook download : http://www.freebookspot.es/Comments.aspx?Element_ID=416986

Originally Posted by chornedsnorkack
Their first aim would be to recover Kansai.
why? would it not be easier to simply attack Choshu and Satsuma directly?

Kansai is central region of Japan, to march troops by land to Choshu or by sea to Satsuma, Kansai need to be controlled first. And Kansai include Kyoto, if SatCho alliance still held some cities/fort in Kansai, Kyoto is still not safe. and Osaka is very important port.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Kinki-en.png


UPDATE : > hate to say this, but the website doesnt look like it has free ebook service...

below, at "links table", there should be link at http://ul.to/...

click at that, wait timer and fill the captcha

 

[mlp]

this might be helpful
A Modern History of Japan: From Tokugawa Times to the Present free ebook download : http://www.freebookspot.es/Comments.aspx?Element_ID=416986

hate to say this, but the website doesnt look like it has free ebook service...

 

[mlp]

*bump bubu-bump*

 

[mlp]

I hate to do this, but,...

chornedsnorkack, do you have any comments on what I explained?