What if the country(colony) was more industrialized/modernized than OTL? Would that help much? (my definition of industrialization/modernization: higher literacy rate, better infrastructural development)maybe a strongman that is less corrupt than OTL's Mobutu could get to a Pakistani levels of Power if he can play his cards right.
I may be wrong, but wasn't Congo/Zaire the most industralized country in Sub-Saharan Africa in 1960?
It had certainly quite significant mining and transportation infrastructure, including railways - especially Katanga and South Kasai.
Perhaps a competent enough dictator, who is more interested in heavy industrialization (with USSR help, like in Ethiopia?), militarization and playing boss in the neighbourhood rather than being cleptocrate like Mobutu. While industralized Congo probably won't be able to keep it up for a very long time - like Ethiopia failed to do so - it might be just enough to allow the change of social structure in Congolese demographics and easier transition to post-industrial economy.
Of course you will need this dictator be stable and ruthless enough to squash ethnic dissent which is a challenge in itself.
yes, it was the most industralized country in central Africa, until Mobutu take over, in 1980 Zaire was merely a shadow of Belgium Congo...
Chirios said:Butterfly Lumumba's assassination for a start.
Not trying to criticize. But as a Korean, it is least to say that South Korea under Rhee Syngman's rule was hellish chaos. Both pre-war and post-war. He simply sucked up the economic aid given by the United States to use it for reelection.The question is whether we can find a figure of Syngman Rhee's caliber to put the country in the right direction - perhaps not democratic from the start but at least stable.
Not trying to criticize. But as a Korean, it is least to say that South Korea under Rhee Syngman's rule was hellish chaos. Both pre-war and post-war. He simply sucked up the economic aid given by the United States to use it for reelection.
For stabilization, Chun Du-hwan would be most certainly a better choice. When Park Chung-hee died, everyone was very sure Kim il-sung would start another war; although in the most brutal ways, Chun Du-hwan stabilized the chaotic situation and kept North Korea in check.
Long story short, Chun is a better analogy than Rhee if stabilization is what matters.
Lumumba was never really a socialist although as with all anti-colonialists of the era he ran in the same circles. The Belgians basically let the Congo be 'independent' but then expected everything to continue going on as it was before with some extra black stooges to smooth things over (ie, they basically wanted to keep exploiting the wealth and labour force of the nation without any issues). Lumumba and the MNC had no resources or money to put into practice the reforms they said they were going to do (the Belgians basically withheld any support) and were facing rebellious secessionist movements as well as a mutinous civil service and military. He turned first to the US to try and gain support in maintaining peace and building his vision of a free Congo but the US refused to help him. Then he turned to the Soviets who allowed him to air-lift some of his military to a particularly rebellious region. This pissed off the US and frightened the Belgians (who thought he'd probably go the route of Cuba and nationalise all foreign businesses, ie the mines) who then set about destroying his supporters and securing their interests by having him assassinated.Chirios - That's a start. I don't know much about Lumumba other than a fact he was a bit on a socialist side. From what I remember he was quite a decent guy and a Congolese patriot.
Michael Van - what do you expect if the population of Congo/Zaire in 1960 had twelve people with higher education? Uneducated people are extremely susceptible to populist rhetoric and more keen on supporting cleptocrats who tell them pretty lies.
I think Mobutu can be butterflied away. The question is whether we can find a figure of Syngman Rhee's caliber to put the country in the right direction - perhaps not democratic from the start but at least stable.
Chirios - That's a start. I don't know much about Lumumba other than a fact he was a bit on a socialist side. From what I remember he was quite a decent guy and a Congolese patriot.
I plotted out a rough timeline where timely intervention of Mobutu and Victor Lundula (the Chief of Staff at the time) kept the Leopoldville garrison from mutiny and Albert Kalonji died in a riot in Bakwanga, cutting the Kasai successionist movement in its tracks. Katanga then declares itself independent but Lumumba has a far stronger position with which to bargain from and moves to attack the Kantangans with his loyal army. Mobutu dies in the drive south, the Americans prop up the Katangans and the Soviets inevitably prop up Lumumba. A ceasefire is eventually called and then RoC and Katanga become the East and West Germany of Africa (ie, the US and the Soviets support their respective puppets as 'examples' of the success of their particular ideologies) and inevitably the change in politics in the region helps prop up other left-wing governments in africa and other reactionary governments in response.
I saw the Congo as being similar to a mix between the early Soviet Union and Chavez's Venezuela: mass drives for literacy and industrialisation to combat poverty coupled with some oppressive stuff to quell ethnic unrest and give the reactionaries their 'proof' at the ineptitude of the enemy.
How much positive effects would've there been if the Kongo River basin was colonized by nations other than Belgium? It seemed to be that, because the Congo became more or less King Leopold's personal property, the colony was more brutally exploited. What if the Congo basin had a higher literacy rate and such?sorry RosoMC, i have no information about higher education level in Congo or Zaire.
what i know is that Zaire drop very fast on Industrial production levels. although Belgium play a inglorious role in this drama.
Belgium Political and nobility, in combination of interest by heavy industry & union had there plans with Zaire
Botswana had two advantages in this respect that the Congo lacked:Have the Congo stay democratic like Botswana, one of the few African success stories.