AHC: Congo-wank
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GiantMonkeyMan
Banned
I had two routes I kinda planned to take or, alternatively, a mix of the two of them. Firstly, with a more stable region and the (sort of) success of Lumumba in maintaining the independence of the Congo from neocolonialism, Congo (Brazzaville) democratically joins with the RoC. The Bakongo ethnic group in the French Congo were slightly more pro pan-africanism than the federalist Bakongo of the Belgian Congo and so Kasavubu's base of support is divided and eventually dilutes his power enough that Lumumba's MNC is the uncontested power of the nation (at least for a while). The other method would have been for the AKABO ministers to make some stupid mistakes in Kasai, be caught out as corrupt etc effectively isolating Kasavubu in Leopoldville whilst Lumumba builds his pan-african support across the rest of the northern provinces.
The reason why it is only an 'outline' of a timeline is because the region had so many different groups, individuals and organisations vying for influence and power that it's difficult to have something coherent come out without forgetting some different aspect. Just as an example, Lumumba's government upon independence was an attempt at cross-political unity and contained members from parties such as: MNC, ABAKO, PSA, PUNA, CEREA, BALUBAKAT, REKO, LUKA, COAKA, UNC and UNIMO. This isn't including Moise Tshombe's CONAKAT. Lumumba's government was a fucking wreck.
Makes sense. I know there's a only tight window of time in OTL, but were there steps taken (or major advocates of taking those steps) in OTL to unite the Congos? I'd like a source (for my personal interest) describing the greater Pan-Africanism of French Congo than Belgian Congo, though I've inferred that in my own reading.
Congo-Brazzaville has a conservative government under Youlou at this point, not to mention lingering French influence as in their other former Equatorial possessions.
I'm not sure uniting the Congos would make either one of them better. The D.R.C is too big as it is.
Really, I think a nice totalitarian, Stalinist state is needed. But that's just me.
Really, I think a nice totalitarian, Stalinist state is needed. But that's just me.
Neirdak
Banned
Congo could ally itself with Soviet Union or China during the Cold War. They could help them to make a better use of the two nuclear reactors of Kinshasha university. 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regional_Center_for_Nuclear_Studies
Congo also owns a lot of uranium mines (the most famous one, Shinkolobwe was used for the Manhattan project). Congo with a secret nuclear weapons program, could become major regional power. Chinese/Soviets could also help the Inga dams.
In order to industrialize the country, you need a better logistics and transportation system, which means more railways, highways and governement controlled waterways. Some parts of the DRC are more accessible from neighbouring countries than from Kinshasa ... You can choose a new capital, in the center of the country. It could help you to control the East (the richest part of the country).
Politically, Congo needs to find a solution with its puzzle of ethnicities (more than 250 ethnic groups have been identified). I could imagine a territorial federalization not based on the country’s largest ethnic groups. Something like sixteen provinces which would be legislatively independant, except for the national and natural ressources issues.
Provinces will be divided in districts, according to demographics.
You would have a few federal districts (districts with high or strategic natural ressources, the Capital, conflictual borders districts) directly controlled by the central governement and without representatives in the Federal Assembly. There are also military districts under the control of the military.
Any district can fall under the control of the central governement or of the military for a temporary period after a vote of the Federal Assembly. It can be used to quell insurgencies or to help controling a rebellous district.
Elections :
http://www.electionresources.org/ch/
You would have two chambers : National Chamber, elected through a system of semi-proportional representation and with a 5% or 8% electoral threshold that prevents a too great a political fragmentation, and a Provincial Chamber with provincial representatives, one for each province, appointed by the elected provincial government or elected by the citizens.
The central governement would be "swissified" : seven-member executive council which constitutes the federal government of Congo and serves as the Congolese collective head of state. Its members are elected for 4 years and can be relected or recalled by the Federal Assembly after this mandate. They are chosen among the members of the Federal Assembly. The president is chosen among them for 1 year and is "primus inter pares". Each member of the Federal Council becomes president according to seniority. The provincial executives are based on the same system.
I also admit that uniting Congo-Brazzaville and Congo-Kinshasha is needed. A country with vast ressources needs to be able to trade them alone. Another possibility without a necessary political union is to build a 4km-long bridge between Kinshaha and Brazzaville, then you rely Kinshasha to Pointe-Noire's deep water port with a single railway. I would outlaw private economic initiatives and foreign investments that aren't authorized by the central governement, especially for the natural ressources exploitation and trade.
I think that a huge popular army, mainly made of conscripted and badly armed militias with a professional core could help. This professional core would be highly mobile and used in case of border clashes.
You could use a soldiers-settlers-workers conscription service of 1 year to develop provinces and to control them at the same time. You just need a system which outlaws soldiers to serve in their birth regions. Congo needs to control its borders. You would also have a paramilitary borders corps and a federal rapid-response paramilitary police force. The provincial police forces wouldn't be really armed and would be made of civilians.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regional_Center_for_Nuclear_Studies
Congo also owns a lot of uranium mines (the most famous one, Shinkolobwe was used for the Manhattan project). Congo with a secret nuclear weapons program, could become major regional power. Chinese/Soviets could also help the Inga dams.
In order to industrialize the country, you need a better logistics and transportation system, which means more railways, highways and governement controlled waterways. Some parts of the DRC are more accessible from neighbouring countries than from Kinshasa ... You can choose a new capital, in the center of the country. It could help you to control the East (the richest part of the country).
Politically, Congo needs to find a solution with its puzzle of ethnicities (more than 250 ethnic groups have been identified). I could imagine a territorial federalization not based on the country’s largest ethnic groups. Something like sixteen provinces which would be legislatively independant, except for the national and natural ressources issues.
Provinces will be divided in districts, according to demographics.
You would have a few federal districts (districts with high or strategic natural ressources, the Capital, conflictual borders districts) directly controlled by the central governement and without representatives in the Federal Assembly. There are also military districts under the control of the military.
Any district can fall under the control of the central governement or of the military for a temporary period after a vote of the Federal Assembly. It can be used to quell insurgencies or to help controling a rebellous district.
Elections :
http://www.electionresources.org/ch/
You would have two chambers : National Chamber, elected through a system of semi-proportional representation and with a 5% or 8% electoral threshold that prevents a too great a political fragmentation, and a Provincial Chamber with provincial representatives, one for each province, appointed by the elected provincial government or elected by the citizens.
The central governement would be "swissified" : seven-member executive council which constitutes the federal government of Congo and serves as the Congolese collective head of state. Its members are elected for 4 years and can be relected or recalled by the Federal Assembly after this mandate. They are chosen among the members of the Federal Assembly. The president is chosen among them for 1 year and is "primus inter pares". Each member of the Federal Council becomes president according to seniority. The provincial executives are based on the same system.
I also admit that uniting Congo-Brazzaville and Congo-Kinshasha is needed. A country with vast ressources needs to be able to trade them alone. Another possibility without a necessary political union is to build a 4km-long bridge between Kinshaha and Brazzaville, then you rely Kinshasha to Pointe-Noire's deep water port with a single railway. I would outlaw private economic initiatives and foreign investments that aren't authorized by the central governement, especially for the natural ressources exploitation and trade.
I think that a huge popular army, mainly made of conscripted and badly armed militias with a professional core could help. This professional core would be highly mobile and used in case of border clashes.
You could use a soldiers-settlers-workers conscription service of 1 year to develop provinces and to control them at the same time. You just need a system which outlaws soldiers to serve in their birth regions. Congo needs to control its borders. You would also have a paramilitary borders corps and a federal rapid-response paramilitary police force. The provincial police forces wouldn't be really armed and would be made of civilians.
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GiantMonkeyMan
Banned
There wasn't really huge steps taken to unite the Congos in OTL although Jacques Opangault, the opposition leader, was part of the Mouvement Socialist Africain which was an organisation formed with sections across all of the French colonies with the aim of uniting in a socialist federation. Youlou, who won quite soundly in the elections, eventually had to bring Opangault into his government as vice president in late 1960 because Youlou's conservative policies were so unpopular amongst huge segments of the population that he risked alienating everyone further. I planned on having the strong position of Lumumba force an earlier 'les trois glorieuses' (three days of anti-Youlou protests which brought down his government in 1962) and then Opangault uniting with Lumumba who's doing everything he could to minimise Kasavubu's power.
But, I also considered it slightly wishful ASB and I have no idea how a united government would be organised.
From what I know of Patrice Lumumba, he always struck me as somebody that would've ended up as the African equivalent to Fidel Castro - after all, there's a Russian university that bears his name. If he somehow managed to survive getting targeted for assassination and remain at he head of a government, he would've chosen to get the DRC into the Soviet camp, much like What happened in the year or so following Fidel's overthrow of Batista. Beyond that: best-case scenario (at least for the first few years after independence) would've seen the DRC end up like Mozambique under Samora Machel's FRELIMO government - struggling with a foreign-backed insurgency (likely centered around Katanga or the resource-rich eastern parts of the country) yet still remaining together and possibly industrializing later on. For a worst-case scenario, it could end up in a Vietnam-level proxy war, or like Ethiopia under Mengistu - suffering from famine, state terror and ultimately splitting up into separate countries (Eritrea).
Nonetheless, a pro-Soviet DRC would provide a tremendous opportunity for the USSR to showcase its ideals to the global South, and perhaps gain more allies throughout sub-Saharan Africa if done right. Whether or not that would work depends largely on how concerned the Kremlin is with the actual well-being of the DRC. Considering the other examples of their influence in the Global South which aren't Cuba, that isn't likely. Post-War Vietnam stagnated for about a decade, receiving lackluster Soviet development aid, until its government went the China route and restored capitalism in the Mid-'80's. And the OTL Soviet allies in Africa were utter screw-ups for the most part, esp. Derg-controlled Ethiopia.
Nonetheless, a pro-Soviet DRC would provide a tremendous opportunity for the USSR to showcase its ideals to the global South, and perhaps gain more allies throughout sub-Saharan Africa if done right. Whether or not that would work depends largely on how concerned the Kremlin is with the actual well-being of the DRC. Considering the other examples of their influence in the Global South which aren't Cuba, that isn't likely. Post-War Vietnam stagnated for about a decade, receiving lackluster Soviet development aid, until its government went the China route and restored capitalism in the Mid-'80's. And the OTL Soviet allies in Africa were utter screw-ups for the most part, esp. Derg-controlled Ethiopia.
So Congo would be Soviet-backed? seems that would mean South Africa and Brazil will get more support from the US from this, to make a balance of power...
I think best bet for Congo would be to take money and military aid from Soviet Union, trade with them extensively - perhaps even add some sort of vaguely socialist-sounding adjective to the country's name but in the end do their own thing economically, like Vietnam and China did in the 80's.
Perhaps they could get involved with Non-Aligned Movement to downplay their relationship with Soviet Union as not to irritate USA too much. In the end there are a lot of powers which have bussines in Congo (uranium and copper being the reason). Congo's best bet is to make use of them without being vassalised in the process.
Perhaps they could get involved with Non-Aligned Movement to downplay their relationship with Soviet Union as not to irritate USA too much. In the end there are a lot of powers which have bussines in Congo (uranium and copper being the reason). Congo's best bet is to make use of them without being vassalised in the process.
Hm... how easy(or hard) would it be to industrialize the DR Congo within this scheme? Most African countries flourished in the 60's but began to fluctuate greatly in their economy, because it was so dependent on natural resources that had unstable prices. Congo would needs to escape from that effect if it wants a "wank". Scientific achievements with Soviet help would be great though, I think.
Interesting idea, the question is though who would they sell it to? The usual imperialism suspects are all as equally in a hole financially, I'm struggling to think of anyone who would be interested that actually had the kind of money involved. If we're thinking of it having a different owner how about Belgium acquiesces to Germany's demand for access in the Great War and the Entente being pissed off enough at this violation of their neutrality that they seize the colony and keep it post-war?
I think it's really hard to come to a solid conclusion about Lumumba, since he died so early. But just because there's a Soviet university named after him doesn't mean a whole lot - he's a martyr for African nationalism, and so his name is a powerful tool. There were many African leaders that received Soviet support (Nkrumah, Toure, Nasser) that never brought their nations into the Soviet camp. And I think the Soviets were fine with that.
I don't see how you can develop "nationalism" in the Congo. It wasn't a pseudo-Venetian citystate like Singapore, it's a spawling mess that covers some of the most ungovernable land in the world. Iron-fisted totalitarianism won't work--you can't pay or pay to educate an army of bureaucrats and agents to watch everyone, and no ethnic group can subdue the 250+ others alone.
Mining diamonds to pay bribes is about the only way a leader can placate a bureaucracy that is sprawled out across thousands of miles and hundreds of languages. It worked pretty well for Mobutu, who stayed in power longer than most dictators, and managed to hold on for a while even after the end of the Cold War. Only after Rwandans crossed the country and stormed Kinshasa was he ousted.
To conclude, I can't see a political solution to the DRC's woes. The initial ascent out of poverty has to happen autonomously in spite of, not because of, whatever public policy Kinshasa/Leopoldville makes since "public policy" is meaningless in the Congo.
Mining diamonds to pay bribes is about the only way a leader can placate a bureaucracy that is sprawled out across thousands of miles and hundreds of languages. It worked pretty well for Mobutu, who stayed in power longer than most dictators, and managed to hold on for a while even after the end of the Cold War. Only after Rwandans crossed the country and stormed Kinshasa was he ousted.
To conclude, I can't see a political solution to the DRC's woes. The initial ascent out of poverty has to happen autonomously in spite of, not because of, whatever public policy Kinshasa/Leopoldville makes since "public policy" is meaningless in the Congo.
Yeah, I'm aware of that. Nonetheless, the vested interests which encouraged the assassination of Lumumba (former Belgian colonial authorities and Cold War Hawks in DC) seem to have much in common with the exiled Cuban elites and the United Fruit Company.
A socialist country wouldn't necessarily advance faster. To use the example of Cuba, one of the reasons Jamaican reggae became popular was the decline of Havana (and thus Cuban salsa) as a cultural center following the revolution. The embargo and state control of art did a lot to stifle experimentation and growth.
So the conclusion is that we need the People's Socialist Republic of the Congo? Or just OTL anti-communism would be fine?
Of course. I'm hardly denying the authoritarian streak of Castro's Cuba. At the same time though, that island's living standards (in terms of healthcare and life expectancy at least) are a lot better than those of its immediate Caribbean neighbors. As for the Congo - yeah, a pro-Soviet DRC, like I mentioned previously, could just as easily end up like Ethiopia under the Derg. It'd be easy for the US and its allies to ship in arms and equipment to rebels in the more far-flung parts of the country (specifically Katanga and the eastern border region), thus plunging the country into civil war even earlier than OTL.