Chapter 3: Red Dawn
Chapter 3: A Red Dawn
After months of planning, assembling forces and intelligence gathering the Soviet Union is finally ready. In the Kremlin Stalin and Stavka look at an enlarged map of Europe; red flags marked Soviet divisions while gray marked known German forces. What was formerly eastern Poland was swarming with red flags and the newly integrated Baltic Soviet Socialist Republics (Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia) also had division upon division. Overall there were 170 divisions in eastern Poland, 50 divisions in the Lithuanian Soviet Socialist Republic, with another 40 divisions acting as a strategic reserve. There were over 7,000 tanks (a combination of T-26s, T-28s, and BT-7s/BT-5s/BT-2s with a small amount of T-34s and KV-1s) assembled and ready to drive west. In Finland there were 20 Red Army divisions on the Swedish-Finnish border. These troops while adequately supplied in small arms, light artillery and machine guns have very little in terms of tanks due to as many as possible were sent to eastern Poland where there is much better tank country. All in all there are nearly 6,000 planes (combinations of I-15 and I-16 Polikarpov fighters and Yak-1s but the Yaks are new and not available in the numbers of the I-15/I-16, some Su-2 fighter-bombers, and large amounts of the Tupolev SB bombers).
Eastern Poland- 170 divisions (1,700,000 men), 5500 tanks, 4000 planes
Lithuania- 50 divisions (500,000 men), 1500 tanks, 1700 planes
Finland- 20 divisions (200,000 men), slightly over a 100 tanks, 300 planes
Strategic Reserve (located in the western portions of the Ukraine and Belorussia) - 40 divisions (400,000 men), 2500 tanks (in theory), much of the Strategic Reserve tanks have been stripped mechanically to supply spare parts for the tanks farther west. Soviet industry is starting to gear up considerably but as of now has very little in the way of spare parts for its tank divisions also many are in need of maintenance but that has been put off to send those spare parts to the frontline tanks. So there are 2500 tanks in the Strategic Reserve but maybe only 300 are actually combat ready. The same is said for the 1,000 or so planes in the Strategic Reserve but even more so, only about a 100 are combat ready the rest are in varying states of repair or have been stripped of spare parts for frontline planes. The 40 divisions of the Strategic Reserve are severely under supplied in terms of machine guns and extra ammunition and grenades. They had also been stripped to send as much as possible while still keeping them a fighting force (barely) to support frontline units.
Overall Soviet numbers on the eve of Operation Red Dawn (does not include Strategic Reserve)- 240 divisions (2,400,000 men), 7,000 tanks, 6,000 planes.
Overall German numbers facing the Soviets- 39 divisions (390,000) in central Poland, 10 divisions (100,000) in East Prussia, a division and a half (15,000) in Sweden assisting the Swedish and Free Finnish forces against the Soviets in occupied Finland, there are 20 divisions (200,000) in what was formerly western Poland but was annexed directly into the Reich. Within hours these troops are transferred to central Poland to assist the troops already there. The German panzer number to around 1,900 (some Panzer IIs but mainly Panzer IIIs with a decent amount of Panzer IVs). Another 600 (Some panzer IIs, IIIS are the majority and even more Panzer IVs) are in eastern Germany (eastern pre-war Germany and formerly western Poland). The Luftwaffe presence is 1,200 planes (750 Bf-109 Messerschmitt fighters, 450 are a mix of Stukas, Heinkel 111s, Dornier Do 17s, Junkers Ju 88 and Junkers Ju 89 bombers). Another 300 (mainly fighters with some bombers) will be sent from various bases throughout Germany.
Central Poland- 39 divisions (390,000 men), 1,400 panzers, 800 planes, commanded by Colonel-General Fedor von Bock
East Prussia- 10 divisions (100,000 men), 500 panzers, 350 planes, commanded by Colonel-General von Rundstedt
Sweden- A division and a half (15,000 men), zero panzers, 50 planes, commanded by Lieutenant General Eduard Dietl. In Sweden Dietl’s panzer forces are actually Swedish tanks along with a few Finnish models that made it Sweden before the Finnish surrender. He has a total of 60 tanks all Swedish or Finnish but not German panzers.
Overall commander of Operation Red Dawn: Marshal Semyon Timoshenko
Eastern Poland commander- General Ivan Konev
Baltic States commander- General Nikolai Vatutin
Finland commander- Kliment Voroshilov (after his removal from the Finnish theater of command during the Winter War due to ineffective leadership he returned to Moscow and after Finland surrendered he was returned and he took out his anger at the Finns for them not surrendering to him but rather to the much better military commander Timoshenko. He leads a very oppressive military occupation over the Finns, executing thousands for the smallest infractions. Voroshilov will soon be known as the Executioner of Finland).
The Stavka are visibly worried about the offensive against the Germans. The First World War made the Germans seem to be demi-gods at war and the Soviet Union had a healthy fear of them. Even with new factories coming online and more switching to war production, not to mention the Trans-Ural factories that were beginning to grow in number due to fear of German long range bombers, the Soviets have put the cream of the crop into the offensive. The average German soldier was better than its Soviet counter-part especially in terms of supply and equipment. German tanks, while not nearly as many as Soviet ones, have had much better combat experience, decent cannon, on the Panzer IIIs it was 37mm (an upgraded Panzer III with a 50mm cannon is in final testing and pre-production, will be available either late 1940 or early 1941) (Soviet T-26, BT-5/BT-7 tanks have a 45mm cannon, while the BT-2s have a 37mm, the T-34 which are only available in small numbers has a 76.2mm cannon) and Panzer IVs with its powerful 75mm cannon. The German Army and Air Force were also much more disciplined and had better training. If this offensive failed the USSR might not be able to retake the initiative until early or mid 1942.
Stalin himself is worried but he does not let that show on his face or body language. Despite his own misgivings he knows he cannot step down now, he would lose face internationally if he did. Besides the Soviet forces heavily outnumber the German forces in Poland and the combat against the Germans would be good experience earned the hard way which will come in handy later, of this he was sure. So on June 21st, 1940 Stalin orders Marshal Timoshenko in Bialystok (eastern Poland, he moved his command there shortly after arriving in Poland) to launch the offensive at 4:00 a.m. the next day.
June 22nd, 1940- At 4:00 a.m. across the entirety of the Soviet-German border Soviet artillery opens up on German positions. Soviet troops and tanks, under the coverage of the artillery barrage, head west to secure their first day objectives. Soviet planes dominate the skies over eastern and central Poland and over East Prussia. Soviet fighters assist ground troops whenever possible but their main goal is to shoot down as many Luftwaffe planes as possible. Soviet bombers and fighter-bombers hammer German positions and supply lines. Within an hour the Soviet Union officially declares war on Nazi Germany, Sweden, and Slovakia. The respective countries do the same.
The Germans knew the Soviet offensive was coming soon but they did not know it would be this soon. The first 12 hours of Red Dawn are very successful for the Red Army. Thousands of Germans are either killed or captured and are steadily pushed back. Hitler was asleep when the Soviet invasion was launched but he was woken up within minutes due to the severity of the situation. He assembles the General Staff and they discuss what to do. They had contingency plans yes but the size of the Red Army was galling and how many tanks and planes they had was near beyond comprehension. After a 2 hour meeting it is decided to send three quarters of the Westwall Army Garrison (forces arrayed on the Westwall facing Belgium and France) (will go from 400,000 men to 100,000 men, the 300,000 will be sent to the east as soon as possible). The forces along the Dutch-German and Danish-German borders will be stripped to the bone, another 100,000 men will be sent east. Luftwaffe bases in western Germany will send all bombers save for a few squadrons to the east (the border bombing campaign in the West which was half-hearted by both sides at best will completely stop from the Germans side, the Entente air forces, having implemented better bomber plane defense formations and more fighter escorts to protect them, plan to send more raids into Germany in the near future). The Luftwaffe fighter squadrons in western Germany cannot be pried away for obvious reasons. Entire Panzer divisions, many which were on the French, Belgian and Dutch borders are now sent east along with most of the motorized divisions. Only a few hundred panzers will remain facing Entente France and Belgium which for months has been under diplomatic pressure from both sides but is warming up to the Entente over the Germans. German conscription will expand, recruiting tens of thousands of young men while the recruitment offices line up with tens of thousands of volunteers (they know how dangerous the Soviet Union is and what the consequences of being occupied by them means).
Colonel-General Fedor von Bock, commander of German forces in the General-Government orders a fluid defense within minutes of the invasion. This means that German units will hold as long as possible in their combat zones but if it seems they will be overrun or surrounded they are to make a fighting retreat west to where more German forces are. He does this before Hitler orders a stand fast defense which would likely cause tens of thousands of German soldiers to be surrounded and destroyed. Hitler, after much discussion with Colonel-General Wilhelm Keitel (commander of the Wehrmacht and de facto War Minister to Hitler), publicly supports the fluid defense plan. In private he is furious to have to lose any territory to the Bolshevik Slavs. Eventually he will see the merit of von Bock’s defense plan and will learn that a stand fast defense is not always the best defense.
By the end of June 22nd, 1940 the Red Army has moved as far as 17 kilometers (into central Poland) and as little as 2 kilometers (in East Prussia where Germany had some pre-war defenses). German losses by the end of the day while high pale when compared to the Soviets. But the Soviets can replace these losses quickly which the Germans cannot as of yet. As the invasion progresses westward German losses lower due to not being surprised as they were the first day and with integrated fields of defense along with the fluid defense strategy. Soviet losses are two to three and sometimes four times what the Germans are losing. Hundreds of Soviet tanks are stated as “lost” on the first day but only about 2/3 were destroyed by the Germans, the other 1/3 broke down due to faulty mechanics, battle damage and such and were forced to be abandoned due to lack of spare parts. The damaged and broke down tanks will be decommissioned and their parts will be added to the overall supply cache of spare parts for the Red Army tanks.
The Red Air Force had planned on taking the Luftwaffe by complete surprise and destroying much of their fighter and bomber capability in central Poland on the ground before they became a problem, this was to be a false hope as since early May Colonel-General Albert Kesselring, Commander-in-Chief of all Luftwaffe units in the Eastern Theater had ordered that approximately 10% of its Eastern Theater fighter strength will be in the air at all times for defense and early warning. This proved invaluable in allowing dozens of Luftwaffe squadrons to get airborne in time and fight the masses of Red Air Force bombers and (mostly) outdated and semi-modern fighters. German tactical and strategic bombers moved west towards better defended airbases and from there were able to launch bombing attacks on the advancing Soviets. Stukas at this time went to the front to stem the Red tide as the other bombers moved westward. While the Red Air Force outnumbers the Luftwaffe by a wide margin and secured air superiority over the frontlines it came at a cost of hundreds of planes shot down or heavily damaged, mainly by German Bf-109s Messerschmitt which prove superior to most Soviet fighter planes. The Soviets bombing of German supply lines while devastating were not crippling as they hoped it would be due to AA guns and Luftwaffe interceptor squadrons. Kesselring orders the Luftwaffe fighter squadrons to attain air superiority and when possible support Army units retreating west towards better positions. Junkers Ju 89s bomb Soviet supply lines and are much more effective than the Soviet bombers attacking German supply lines. German tactical bombers (Heinkel He 111, Junkers Ju 88, and Dornier Do 17) bombard Soviet lines, slowing them down, and doing much damage on forward positions.
In Sweden the Soviet forces cross the border after a five hour light artillery barrage and Soviet planes dominate the skies even more so than in Poland but Luftwaffe squadrons based in Stockholm make their way north to fight for the skies contested there. The 20 Soviet divisions slam upon the German/Finnish/Swedish defenses like a hammer upon a nail. After advancing 10 kilometers into Sweden (10 kilometers being deepest penetration so far while the shallowest is 6 kilometers) the Soviet forces enter very tough terrain and determined German/Finnish/Swedish defenses that been in development since Finland surrendered. The Soviets do continue to advance but not at a sluggish pace with untold liters of blood spilt with very little gained.
When Stalin is informed of the military progress he nods. The offensive in Poland is not going as fast as wished but as fast as was realistically predicted, East Prussia has bogged down a bit but reports from General Vatutin is that the German defenses are being swarmed with troops and are slowly being taken, Vatutin expects Soviet progress in the next week or so. The advance into Sweden was proving promising but considerably less so now. Stalin sends more units into the fray on all fronts. Stalin ordered that another 50 divisions of troops to be raised but they had to go through training and receive equipment which would all take time, many months at least. He orders that the offensive continue on all fronts with the utmost vigilance.
June 23rd, 1940- The second day of the offensive opens up with a surge of aircraft of both sides fighting dogfights where scores of planes are downed. A large Soviet bomber force of 400 Tupolev SB bombers and Su-2 fighter-bombers escorted by 500 fighters (mainly the inferior I-15 and the modern I-16 but due to better Luftwaffe pilot training and more combat experience the I-16 is not on equal terms as the Bf-109) (the I-16 is a bit more maneuverable than the current versions of the Messerschmitt Bf-109 but upgrades are coming to the Bf-109 and the Soviets are beginning to phase out the I-15 and I-16 with the more advanced Yak-1). The large Red Air Force formation is moving west towards Warsaw, a major communication and supply hub for the German Army. Luftwaffe fighters and ground based AA take a terrible toll on the Soviet planes shooting down 60 planes before they reach Warsaw, mainly bombers. When the bombers reach Warsaw and drop their payloads the damage is massive with almost 11,000 dead, mainly Polish civilians. Despite light German losses the damage to the German supplies are devastating. Among the supplies destroyed ranged from small arms ammunition for rifles and submachine guns to food and extra clothing. The most damaging loss to the German forces in central Poland was the destruction of most of the German panzer cannon ammunition shells. This will seriously limit how many shells a panzer can fire before running completely out. Replacement shells are ordered from Germany but it will take weeks, almost a month, to get supplies back up to the level it was before the bombing of Warsaw. Along with the shells goes a significant amount of fuel that is the lifeblood of the German panzers, planes and other military vehicles. The Soviet bomber force flies back to Soviet controlled space having lost 167 bombers and 192 fighters while Luftwaffe losses were 151 fighters with dozens more damaged beyond quick repair.
June 24th, 1940- Sweden officially joins the Axis Powers. This was done not out of support for authoritarian rule or fascism or racism but mere survival. Germany sends advisors, money and some machine guns, Panzer Is and artillery but nothing more. Nothing can be spared. The Swedes use the money and advisors to good use enlarging their Army, their Air Force and their industry to better fight the war. Norway and Denmark, which have remained neutral, are nervously looking at all sides. Denmark would rather join the Entente but Germany and Sweden are to the north and south so no help will be forthcoming. The Soviet Union is communist and brutal and the Axis are authoritative and expansionist. Denmark decides to remain neutral and hope for the best. Norway is taking a keen interest in the war which is now publicly being called the Second World War. Most of the Norwegian Parliament wish to remain neutral or join the Entente, some even want to join the Axis and fight against the invading communists, after all Sweden was Norway’s close cousin country and it had been invaded by the dreaded Bolsheviks and Sweden itself had joined the Axis. The nation as a whole supports either the Axis or the Entente with few supporting the USSR, and the few that are supporting an alliance with the Soviet Union are rapidly being eliminated by Axis and Entente supporters.
June 25th, 1940- A concentrated push by Soviet armored forces in central Poland breaks through the stretched German lines and within hours 20,000 German soldiers are surrounded cut off from other German forces. Large units of Soviet tanks block any attempt by the Germans to relieve these surrounded units. The German units here decide to fight as long as the ammunition and food last (they do not surrender because reports since the beginning of the Soviet attack report Soviet atrocities towards German POWs. Many soldiers would rather die than get caught).
June 27th, 1940- Following the success of the minor breakthrough in the south Timoshenko orders units located there to exploit this as much as possible; tank after tank move westward followed by tens of thousands of Soviet infantry.
The Germans have little in the way of major defenses here and are quickly pushed back. The quick advance has developed an issue with Soviet logistics: not enough fuel is reaching the Soviet tanks on the advance. General Ivan Konev messages Stalin “…give me the fuel and I will give you a victory.”
June 29th, 1940- 80 German panzers (Panzer IIs and Panzer IIIs) meet the Soviets that were advancing to Lublin due to the breakthrough. The German panzers cause significant damage until a platoon of Soviet T-34 tanks enter the battle. The Germans lose half of their panzers, most to the T-34s, while only eleven T-34s (dozens of other Soviet tanks were also destroyed) are destroyed (the only reason this many were destroyed was due to ineffective Soviet communication and coordination with other tanks to assist each other). Reports of this incident and of the powerful T-34 go to Berlin where scientists and engineers look at the sloped armor of the T-34 with much interest. It is obvious that the German panzers, particularly the III, while modern and effective are out of their league when fighting the T-34. Plans for a bigger, better panzer are in the works but it will be quite some time before anything will come of it. Upgrades to the Panzer IV are also in the works to make the IV more effective against Soviet armor. This includes thicker frontal armor which will be a semi-sloped glacis and an upgrade to the 75mm cannon to make it more effective against enemy tanks. All this however is many months away, at least, from testing and production. Soviet forces are now advancing on Lublin with all haste. German forces there begin to evacuate all useful supplies while a few Waffen-SS units will hold their ground to delay the Soviet conquest.
June 30th, 1940- Eight days after the Soviet invasion of Poland, East Prussia and Sweden the Entente finally makes a public announcement. The Entente applauds the Soviets for assaulting the Nazis and states “That with the Soviet Union helping the Entente the war will be quickly won and the world will once again know peace.” A large Entente bomber force: 350 bombers and 300 fighters (mostly French with a decent amount of British planes. The British planes are mostly Hurricanes), cross the French-German border and advance on the Ruhr region. The Ruhr is an industrial region vital to the German war industry. Luftwaffe pilots know this will be a vital air battle.
Nearly 280 BF-109 Messerschmitt fighters engage the Entente fighters while another 100 Luftwaffe reinforcements from other bases come to assist but they have to travel some distance and that takes time.
The Battle of the Ruhr begins with Entente scouts and German scout’s dog fighting while the main body of the Entente formation passes by molested only by thick AA fire. The original German force of 280 planes fight hard destroying 67 bombers and 45 fighters while losing only 43 planes, the damage to the Ruhr is moderate. The Entente Bomber Command however senses an opportunity to seriously hamper the Germans by trying a new tactic.
July 1st, 1940- The Entente launch a consecutive raid the next day consisting of fighters and bombers against the Ruhr and this day is even bloodier then the previous. The Germans lose 68 fighters with significant damage to much of the Ruhr with only 37 Entente bombers and 30 fighters felled. The Germans had not expected such a massive attack the day after another massive attack. But the Entente Bomber Command is not done.
July 2nd, 1940- After refueling, resting, replenishing supplies, and receiving reinforcements the Entente launches a third and final consecutive bombing raid into Germany. The German pilots are more prepared this time, especially after receiving fresh reinforcements from northern Germany.
The Entente bomber force is now 250 bombers and 300 fighters against 320 German fighters. The Entente, while having more planes, have suffered heavy losses the past two days and these reinforcements are in fact either fresh from training schools or have never fought a significant engagement against the Germans. The Germans on the other hand have some new recruits but many have been part of the Westwall Air Defense Command for some time and have fought the Entente air forces many times.
The third day of the Battle of the Ruhr for the Entente ends with 106 bombers and 143 fighters destroyed. The Germans lose 117 fighters but the damage to the Ruhr is even lighter than the first day. The heavy Entente losses are due to the integrated AA system and the fierce defense performed by German pilots. Both sides have lost many planes and trained pilots. Both leave the skies to lick their wounds.
The results for the Battle of the Ruhr are heavy damage to perhaps a quarter of the Ruhr with the rest either moderately damaged to light damage. The Entente loses a combined 418 planes (210 bombers, 218 fighters) while the Germans lose 228 fighters but the damage to the industrial Ruhr is deemed worth the cost by Entente Bomber Command. Production output is down 30% in the Ruhr along with a large force of the Westwall Air Defense Force wiped from the earth. Publically the Entente claims the battle of the Ruhr as a victory but privately many French generals are dismayed by the cost. Most of the planes shot down were French and the Germans despite being assailed from the North (in Sweden) and East by the Soviets while the Entente tie down significant German forces in the West are still in the fight, more so than ever. The Entente might have more planes but the Germans knew how to use them better and the Germans were producing more fighters despite the two Entente nations industrial production (neither the British or French go to a war time economy, they are doing much the same as the Germans did in OTL up till 1943 so this means less Entente factories are making war materials than German factories but between the British and French it is still a lot of military production).
July 3rd, 1940- Hitler, after personally visiting, damaged towns and factories in the Ruhr, realizes that Germany needs more fighters, but it also needs more panzers, rifles and ammunition for all. Returning to Berlin Hitler tells his inner circle that Germany will move from a War Economy to a Total War Mobilization. More rationing will go into effect and the German people will be tested but due to the Entente bombings on German soil (causing thousands of civilians dead) and the hated Soviet Union advancing towards the Reich the German people are behind their Führer more so then before. Germany lost one war and barely survived. Could it lose a second?
The new rationing laws and the movement towards Total War Mobilization will increase industrial output: more weapons of war. German engineering teams are coming up with new ways to increase production but to make it more automated to allow more men to be conscripted. New technologies, some that were seen as far stretched or unrealistic, are now receiving full attention, particularly jet engine and rocket technology but these are years away from effective mass production and use in the field. Also to increase fighter production, which is a needed much more over bombers at this point, the amount of bombers being produced will be cut back heavily allowing fighter production to take over (many factories that were making bombers are now about to start buildings fighters and upgraded Bf-109s at that). Göring, who wanted a large bomber force to help German offensives advance, realizes that with Germany on the defense on three fronts bombers are less important and fighters more in demand. To the surprise of many General Walther Wever supports the Führer’s move to increase fighter production at the cost of limiting bomber production. Wever realizes that Germany needs fighters more now than ever. The German bomber force will be kept in reserve and used only to slow advancing Soviets or when the need arises, to counter-attack, and also to damage enemy supply lines.
July 4th, 1940-General Vatutin, commander of the East Prussian Theater, finally overcomes the German defenses on the Lithuanian-German border. Memel is quickly taken and Soviet forces are advancing at a heavy, but acceptable, cost. German reinforcements from Germany are arriving on all fronts but it is not enough to stem the Red tide.
July 5th, 1940- After nearly a week since the tank battle east of Lublin Soviet forces enter the outskirts of the city. Most of the German forces had moved westward towards better defensible positions but a regiment of the Waffen-SS (1,000 men) fight the Soviets to the death to slow down the Red Army. The Waffen-SS troops, using Molotov cocktails and land mines destroy over forty Soviet tanks that were ignorant enough to enter the city. In Moscow and Berlin both sides take note of how vulnerable armor is in urban areas. By the end of the day the Soviets had taken the city but not before almost 4,000 died for only 600 Waffen-SS troops, 300 are able to make it to German lines under the coverage of artillery and bombers. Another 100 SS troops remain behind to wage a guerilla war against the Soviets in the city with the support of fascist Poles.
July 6th, 1940- Soviet forces officially announce the capture and “liberation” of Lublin from the “Fascist oppressors.” The Red Army major that read the announcement was shot and killed by a sniper, one of the remaining SS men. The Soviets demand he be turned over or fifty Poles would be shot. Within hours it was obvious no one was coming forward and the 50 Polish civilians were killed by firing squad. The Poles, while considered sub-human by the Nazis, support the German over the Soviets while the Jews support the Soviets. This is in general, not definite.
Colonel-General von Bock in Warsaw looks with dismay at his southern front. With Lublin gone the Soviets could move either north-west towards Warsaw or to the south-west towards Krakow or due west towards Lodz. He sighed and began to issue orders moving troops around. The decisions he will make in the coming days will decide the fate of the Reich.
but even though you were very critical of my story it was needed. Now does that mean this story will get more accurate? No probably not, this is a hobby and with work and school I don't have time to iron out all the problems before Ipost the edits have cleaned it up but even though Stalin would not have done what he's done ITTL it is a what if he did even if it is unrealistic. Well I hope you come back eventually. If not well thank you for the info and the constructive criticism.