A Plethora of Princes - (Thread 6) : The Crashing of the Waves

[Grey Wolf]

The US Radical Party

OK, I've been wandering around all the links attached to

http://www.geocities.com/CollegePark/Quad/6460/dir/844nra.html
as an example

and
http://www.u-s-history.com/pages/h343.html
as another example

And I am coming to the conclusion that trying to find a way of manipulating OTL political events into a new shape simply won't happen. As Clay and Van Buren both feared, the annexation of Texas, the subsequent Mexican War and the new territories all completely changed the political map. Before the mid 1840s abolitionism is one strand of political thought, afterwards it begins to dominate in many more areas.

If it had remained minor, then what would have grown up instead in opposition to a different style of Democratic regime ? One where the slavery issue is settled according to Douglas' inclinations, where the absence of many potential new slave states has made the issue more mute. Of course, there is still Kansas but that is approached from a different perspective without the other territories and Texas existing as parts of the Union

What seems to me to be more of a potential opposing force are the various working mens' parties and organisations around in this period, most of which I had never heard of until I went exploring. From out of their coalescing forms, and with more left-wing Whigs (if that modern usage makes sense here) could be formed a new party aimed at the working man and addressing his concerns.

One could counter, of course, with the claim that both main parties aim to improve the lot of the working man, but that is along the lines of saying that today's Conservative Party does so - i.e. they intend for the working man to benefit from what they do to the rest of the nation, but are not focusing on their concerns and fears.

Thus, the nascent workers' parties and movements in the USA could quite possibly copy the Radicals in the UK. After all, the name Whig was in OTL coined from the party in the UK which was historically opposed to autocratic monarchical rule. In the ATL this would be even more the case as the year of the US Whig Party's formation, 1834, is occurring slap bang in the middle of the British Civil War. One could therefore imagine that various parties have come into being with names which have been affected by the Reformists and Radicals in the UK, rather than taking on more purely-American names.

Thus by the late 1850s there may well be a US Radical Party, and after the election defeat of the Whigs in 1860 this working men's party coalesces with the aforementioned splintering of the Whigs to form a national force as the Radical Party.

Grey Wolf

 

[Faeelin]

I'm immensely surprised that California didn't up and revolt the way Texas did, actually.

 

[Grey Wolf]

Charles Francis Adams

What do people feel about Charles Francis Adams as leader of the Radical Party going into the 1864 election ?

Grey Wolf

 

[Grey Wolf]

I'm immensely surprised that California didn't up and revolt the way Texas did, actually.

Well, in the 1830s there wasn't really that much IN California I don't think. There certainly weren't anywhere near the number of immigrants needed until the 1840s. Without a war, Fremont's Bear Flag Republic would have been a laughing matter. It didn't possess armed forces of any particular note nor control much of the province. With the intervening land remaining Mexican and no intervention from US navy ships, any such attempt would have been crushed.

Looking at the ATL, California is only in the OTL late 1840s position vis-a-vis population influx by c1861. Without an influx of settlers after an OTL war, it has remained a Mexican province and been developed but the fortuitous discovery of gold has not occurred. It does, of course, because the gold is obviously there, but it occurs at the end of the 1850s.

I'm not sure I'm answering your question ?

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

 

[DuQuense]

It was the Introduction of Slaves in Defiance of Mexican Law that was one of the Problems in the 1830's Texas.
========


You have no US California, leading to No Perry, in Tokyo Bay 1854. Japan is Sleeping except for the slow war with Russia over Sakhalin Island. [Mostly Burning out the others Trading posts, and Courting the Natives] [think England/France in NA 1700's]. So any American Clippers will be going to China. ?Could this lead to a Formal American Enclave [Aka Hong Kong]?

?Given the Great Game would Britain/France allow Japan to fall to Russia?

 

[Grey Wolf]

You have no US California, leading to No Perry, in Tokyo Bay 1854. Japan is Sleeping except for the slow war with Russia over Sakhalin Island. [Mostly Burning out the others Trading posts, and Courting the Natives] [think England/France in NA 1700's]. So any American Clippers will be going to China. ?Could this lead to a Formal American Enclave [Aka Hong Kong]?

?Given the Great Game would Britain/France allow Japan to fall to Russia?

Russia is a bit busy. The war in the Eastern Mediterranean, a-historical wars with persia, increased involvement in Afghanistan, as well as OTL involvement in different ways in Kashgaria, Dzungaria.

1853 OTL Russian FM Nesselrode informed China that Russia respected the borders of previous treaties. Then came the Crimean War OTL, an influence for change. The Amur Maritime provinces were thus infliltrated by Russians, their additional value was taken onboard by Muraviev. Putiatin and Ignatiev's negotiations were all in the light of this.

Now, in the OTL the 1853 position holds firm. What this means for Putiatin's mission to Japan is intriguing. He would still go, but the pressures and outcome would all be different.

Then there is China to consider, and oh boy what a BIG CONSIDERATION that is, I've only been working on it a week so far !

Grey Wolf

 

[Grey Wolf]

With regard to Japan, I am thinking that it is in line to be opened up, but France and Britain may be more involved than in OTL. The situation in China is far worse for the imperials than in OTL, not least because of how the different stresses have hit it, and that both Britain and France are involved in major wars elsewhere. The Taiping consolidate, the other rebellions wracking China in this period all come together to mean a partial breakup of the empire, mainly in the South-East and the North-West.

Grey Wolf

 

[Faeelin]

Well, in the 1830s there wasn't really that much IN California I don't think. There certainly weren't anywhere near the number of immigrants needed until the 1840s. Without a war, Fremont's Bear Flag Republic would have been a laughing matter. It didn't possess armed forces of any particular note nor control much of the province. With the intervening land remaining Mexican and no intervention from US navy ships, any such attempt would have been crushed.

I dunno; look at other states that emerged out of Mexico. The UPCA, Texas, ande even the Yucatan. Certainly there'd be no love loss between the US and the Mexicans.

Also, ever since Andrew Jackson's day the US had been attempting to buy the northern half of the state. I could see the Mexicans retaining San Diego and such, but I'd think at least San Francisco would go to the US.

 

[Grey Wolf]

I dunno; look at other states that emerged out of Mexico. The UPCA, Texas, ande even the Yucatan. Certainly there'd be no love loss between the US and the Mexicans.

Also, ever since Andrew Jackson's day the US had been attempting to buy the northern half of the state. I could see the Mexicans retaining San Diego and such, but I'd think at least San Francisco would go to the US.

Hmmm, but how much 'out of Mexico' was the UPCA ? It was if I recall the right term a captain-generalcy ? I.E. It was governed as a sub-dependency and on independence did not want to retain links.

As for Texas it broke away because the settlers were non-Catholic European-descended US immigrants in sufficient numbers to do so. They were invited in then proved difficult.

Yucatan was going down the UPCA/Guatemala route, but it should be noted that it failed, and also that a large measure of its temporary success was down to Texas.

California simply does not have the sizeable non-Mexican population of a Texas. It also doesn't have much in the way of developed local government traditions. On the one hand this is a deficiency as Fremont was to show, on the other its a gain balanced against what this can do a la Yucatan

In the ATL, the USA gets all of Oregon, that will focus a lot of attention Northwards rather than South upon North California. In addition, protectorates over Yucatan and later involvement in Central America also drag attention away.

I don't see why California should slide earlier than it is in the ATL

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

 

[Grey Wolf]

President Charles F Adams ?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_Francis_Adams,_Sr.

(This article is really only half the necessary stuff on him - for a Wiki article it is pretty lacking in detail, even in outline)

How plausible is President Charles F Adams, of the Radical Party in the 1864 election ? Could he win if it seems as if the USA has abandoned the working man for imperial goals ?

I am thinking that California may develop along this route, and am also thinking that DuQuesne's comments at AH.com on the potential for the Mormons to be hassled by the immigrant workers in California could lead to the latter being tried, and the USA intervening on their behalf - thoughts ?

Grey Wolf

 

[Grey Wolf]

Part 5 - China

The Sino-Sikh War in the mid 1840s underlined the weakness of China to many, the inability to prevent the Sikh state from holding onto those parts of Tibet seized in the preceding years. Although the war itself was indecisive, the outcome favoured the Sikhs and represented a loss of face for the Chinese.

Followed as it shortly was by an Anglo-French campaign to open Chinese ports to European trade, the war marked the beginning of a period of Chinese weakness that was to culminate in the near collapse of the empire by the 1860s.

In 1851 a Christian convert, variously described as a visionary or a madman, by the name of Hung Hsiu-chuan proclaimed a rebellion in Eastern China, seizing Nanking in 1853 and declaring the foundation of the 'Heavenly Kingdom of Great Peace', the Taiping Tienkuo, or Taiping for short. Proclaiming himself as the Heavenly King (Tien Wang), Hung's movement proceeded to sweep across the area. However, an attempt to march North to Peking in 1853 proved to be under-manned, and would eventually lead to the defeat of the expeditionary force's remnants in Shantung province in 1855.

But the Taiping rebellion had by this time had a galvanising effect on other minority, rebellious and disadvantaged groups.

In the South, initially in Kweichow province but spiiling over into all of its neighbours, a coalition of Miao tribesmen, Chuing-chia tribes and disaffected Chinese drove the imperialists from out of the area. By 1858 all of the fortified towns surrounding the Miao heartland were in rebel hands, and Kao He had emerged as the paramount leader after the fall of the provincial capital of Kweiyang in 1857.

In Anhwei province, North of the Taiping heartland, the Nien rebellion which had begun under local chief Chang Lo-hsing in 1852 gathered momentum and spread out across the region, by 1858 dominating the entire valley of the Huai River.

1856 had seen the Tung Wang, the Taiping's principle military commander, sweep aside one of the two main imperial forces besieging Nanking and proceed to declare himself the equal of the Heavenly King. Choosing his moment carefully, he launched a coup and placed himself in a theoretically equal position, but in reality relegating Hung Hsiu-chuan to a minor role.

1856 also saw the outbreak of the Panthay rebellion in the predominantly mountainous Yunnan province on the Southern borders. Centred amongst the Muslim population, it grew out of sectarian disputes and soon divided into two main theatres. In the East, Ma Hsien emerged as the main rebel leader, co-operating with others but in `1858 awarding himself the title of Great Marshal. In the West, the rebel leader Ma Yussa emerged from his hiding place in the Shan Hills in 1857 after a decade of hiding, and soon raised up his own rebellion.

By the early 1860s the situation had begun to coalesce into a recognisable pattern. The Taiping were established in Eastern China, occupying the provinces of Hunan, Hupeh, Kiangsi, Chekiang and Southern Anhwei, as well as the island of Formosa which had risen for the Taiping.

The Nien rebels, occupying Northern Anhwei, Honan and Southern Shantung effectively provided the Taiping with a borderland between itself and the Chinese imperial forces. The Nien leaders had acknowledged Taiping suzerainty but retained their local powers.

Kweichow, and areas of Yunnan, Hunan and Kwangsi were under the dominion of Kao He, and comprised loosely a confederation of Miao, Chung-chia and Chinese.

Yunnan, under its rival leaders was in a state of civil war, but shielded from the possibility of imperial intervention by Taiping campaigns in Szechwan province and by a series of new rebellions which broke out across 1862.

Unsettled by the Taiping rebellion, and especially by Taiping incursions into the province in the Spring of 1862, the Tungan (Chinese Muslims) of Shensi broke out in rebellion in 1862 under the leadership of Ma Hua-long of Chin-ch-pao, a leader of a militant Muslim reform movement known as the 'New Doctrine', and someone who by 1863 had adopted for himself the title of Grand Marshal. The revolt quickly spread into neighbouring Kansu province.

At the same time, the latest Khoja exile incursion into Kashgaria had at last borne fruit for these exiles, the former ruling dynasty of Kashgaria who had been living in exile in neighbouring Khokand for most of the century, occasionally returning in short-lived rebellions, the most recent in 1857 where a regime of unparallelled brutality had been put down by imperial forces after but a few months.

Nominally under Khoka exile Buzurg Khan, the Kashgarian uprising was largely controlled by Yakub Beg, appointed military commander to the former exile. They quickly subdued local rulers who had risen up and proclaimed their own state, and by 1865 were in control of all of Kashgaria after having driven out the last of the Chinese.

By this time, the Tungan rebels had not only seized control of all of Shensi and Kansu, but had also penetrated Kashgaria and formed an alliance with Yakub Beg under one T'o-Ming, who in 1864 had proclaimed himself to be 'King of All Muslims'. But religious tensions were high, the Tungan belonging to an unorthodox branch of Sunnism and the Kashgarians to a more orthodox form.

Grey Wolf

 

[Grey Wolf]

Part 6

The early 1860s thus saw European attention being pulled in several directions at once. No sooner had the Central American question been solved, then the government in London was faced with renewed warfare in South America and a whole new series of revolts across China which threatened to bring about the complete collapse of the tottering empire.

As Britain and France engaged Argentine forces in the South Atlantic, and as they looked on with increasing concern within China, Russia and the United States would take advantage of their distraction in various ways.

In Central Asia, the Russian Empire in the last few decades had annexed the Southern shore of the Caspian Sea and added Southern Azerbaijan to the Northern part, defeating Persia in a series of wars, and also taking Herat within Afghanistan. In addition, the Central Asian states of Khokand, Bokhara and Khiva were all suffering depradations and the loss of frontier positions to the Russians.

In 1853, Russian Foreign Minister Nesselrode had informed the Chinese Emperor that Russia recognised and would abide by the borders of their previous agreements with China. A decade later, with the Eastern Mediterranean War over, and Russian attention once more turning to Asian affairs, Russia pressed for the land North of the Amur, a province whose exact boundaries had never been agreed by previous treaties and which was becoming increasingly important in Russian plans for expansion in the Far East. Under pressure from renewed rebellions, and fearful of Russian intentions if no agreement was reached, China agreed to the cession of the province in 1863.

Russia would press additional claims in the following few years, and intervene forcefully to enforce these within the Ili Valley, taking Kuldja in 1865 and holding onto it. There was little that China could do, having been driven from Kashgaria by the combined forces of Yakub Beg and the Tungan rebels, and seeing its holdings in Dzungaria fall to local leaders who were soon to pledge vague allegiance to Yakub Beg whilst still retaining their effective independence.

Meanwhile, the United States had been watching events in California with increasing interest. The Gold Rush really taking off in 1861 had seen an influx of American citizens from the North, and soon the Mexican authorities were fearful of a population imbalance, the immigrants coming to outnumber the Mexicans in all but a few major cities.

It was, however, clashes with Mormon missions which were to provide the United States with a cause to intervene. Established as missionary outposts from their theocratic state of Deseret, these Mormon outposts enjoyed the full protection of Mexican law, as Deseret was a fully acknowledged autonomous zone within the republic. American workers, coming up against Mormons for the first time, vented their disgust and hatred against numerous missions. Attempts by the Mexican authorities to play down these clashes met with anger in Deseret, and new instructions from Mexico City ordered the governor in Monterey to bring those responsible to justice. The arrest of a dozen ringleaders in the area around San Francisco caused outrage in the United States, where popular propaganda had for years portrayed the Mormons as akin to Devil-worshippers.

President Stephen A Douglas acted forcibly to demand that rather than try the men, Mexico hand them over to US jurisdiction. At the same time, American agitators began to campaign for democratic rights for the worker populations in the gold fields. Mexican law required citizenship or a minimum period of residence, but the USA began to press for Mexico to make an exception within California. Demonstrations by US warships off the coast caused consternation in Monterey and it was not long before the governor was instructed to convene a second chamber to the California legislature consisting of immigrants with reduced voting powers. Even this was not enough for the United States, and in late 1863 a landing party was put ashore to forcibly rescue a group of men who were to stand trial for the murder of a Mormon missionary.

By this time, British and French warships were bloickading the entire Argentine coast, and naval divisions operating in the River Plate and up the Parana. Marines had been landed in Patagonia and effected an alliance with King Oriele Antoine's Mapuche, whilst Paraguayan forces held their own against the Argentinians and threatened an advance on Buenos Aires. Both powers were too deeply caught up in affairs in this theatre to offer anything more than diplomatic support to the Mexican Republic.

Grey Wolf

 

[Grey Wolf]

Part 7

This seems a bit odd but let's see what people think ?

President Stephen A Douglas is running for re-election in 1864, going for a third term, attempting to be the first president to achieve this.

His government is agitating over California, but Mexico is not proving to be the push-over the USA had imagined it to be. The US has forced the Californian legislature to give the immigrant workers representation, and has also intervened forcibly to remove some US citizens incarcerated on charges of murdering a Mormon missionary.

But Douglas' campaign is running into a strong showing from the labour coalition that has united several factions, including dissident Whigs, behind Charles F Adams as the Radical Party

Adams' campaign is not directly anti-imperialistic, but his strong showing on the campaign trail makes great work of the fact that although the concessions in California have borne great results for the USA, the lot of the common man has hardly been improved.

Adams is also able to make good play on the conditions of workers across the USA, the Indian attacks on settler caravans, the insecurity in the Mid West, and continued rebellion in the United Provinces of Central America where lots of US workers have been lured by promises that turned out to be false.

In November 1864 Charles F Adams stuns the political world by getting elected president, on a narrow majority in the electoral college.

Grey Wolf

 

[Faeelin]

Frankly, I'm surprised the miners didn't just up and revolt.

 

[DuQuense]

The Leaders in the Heavenly kingdom [Tiaping] were so concerned With Heavenly affairs that they ignored such mundane things as keeping the Water, & Sewage, systems working, Only the collapse of the Movement, prevented the Plague from spreading, across China. If China is Splintering.......

 

[Grey Wolf]

Frankly, I'm surprised the miners didn't just up and revolt.

Well, I doubt they want to take on the Mexican army. Did the miners revolt over conditions when the USA was in control in OTL ? I don't know of any, but I could easily have missed them as I don't seem to have many sources on California. I have a book on the Klondike on order, but couldn't find a reasonably-priced one on 1840s California, or the Bear Flag Republic.

Mexico in the ATL has had 15 more years in control of California. In addition, it has a negotiated settlement with Texas, and international arbiters for any boundary disputes, and it has the Mormons in Deseret as its Northern border. California thus becomes a more important part of Mexico, of a Mexico that is elsewhere more secure about their borders.

Thus I see the infrastructure as being improved, the army as being larger and the government as more in control. Of course, this doesn't stop people from revolting, but I was looking at the parallel to the Transvaal. The interests of the immigrants was taken up by their own great power, which pushed the agenda forward.

Grey Wolf

 

[Grey Wolf]

The Leaders in the Heavenly kingdom [Tiaping] were so concerned With Heavenly affairs that they ignored such mundane things as keeping the Water, & Sewage, systems working, Only the collapse of the Movement, prevented the Plague from spreading, across China. If China is Splintering.......

Well, the way I see it the Taiping were basically divided between nutjob visionaries, murderous plunderers and the more practical types. The latter later on included two of the more able military commanders - in OTL these two (the Chung Wang and the Ying Wang) did a lot to restore the Taiping's military fortunes, by simply concentrating on their tasks.

The way I see the Tung Wang is that he was a practical cynical chap. He used the holy rhetoric of the Taiping to make his claim for equality, but is viewed as simply using this as a cover for his ambition. I have him keeping Hung alive - he claimed equality with him, so its at least a possible option. I also see him as aspiring to something of a Shogun role, with Hung the emperor in the background, very much in the background.

Thus, I could see the Tung Wang as being able to focus on the practical. I've had him stay away from any ideas of attacking Shanghai, the one thing which in OTL destroyed the later Taiping by focusing the great powers against them. Thus, keeping the generally benevolent feelings of the great powers towards this nominally Christian state, I would see the Taiping eventually begin to benefit from trade with them. OTL there was a lot of armaments trade, but under a more stable regime the Taiping could begin to use Western expertise to run their state.

After all, a lot of this is simply speculation...

Grey Wolf

 

[Grey Wolf]

Been a while since there were any comments....hmmmm...

Anyone has any ideas as to what is going on in Europe ?

And if the serfs have not been emancipated, is this causing problems ?

Grey Wolf

 

[Grey Wolf]

OK, it looks like this has died

Let's hope its just Part 6 that has come to the end of its run, and that creating a Part 7 will generate some interest among people

Grey Wolf

 

[Othniel]

The death of Carlos Antonio Lopez in 1862 unleashed a new fury of war upon South America. Buenos Aires, seething the last twenty years over their defeat by Britain and France, and most especially the loss of four frontier provinces to Paraguay, now saw its chance. Under strongman ruler, General Justo Jose de Urquiza, Argentina took advantage of the elder Lopez's death to invade its former frontier provinces of Chaco and Corrientes.

Paraguay's new ruler, Francisco Solano Lopez musters the army and calls upon Britain and France, protectors of the republic of Uruguay and traditional friends of Paraguay since the last war.

In London, Prime Minister Labouchere's government has won re-election in a mandate to press Britain's interests abroad. With Moderate leader, Benjamin Disraeli, holding the Foreign Office portfolio in the new coalition government, Britain responds swiftly to events in the Southern Atlantic. Not to be outdone, in Paris, King Ferdinand's government likewise despatches a naval force to the River Plate.

The British squadron calls into Rio de Janeiro enroute, and its commander, Vice Admiral Sir James Hope-Vere delivered a letter from the British king and government to the Emperor of Brazil and his government. Whilst its contents were not immediately made public, it was obvious to informed observers that the letter was a request (in formal language) or a warning (in effect) not to get involved in war against Paraguay. It was well-known that, since the 1840s war, Brazil had been concerned about Paraguayan dominance of the River Plate, and the Lopez's interests in the Brazilian province of Matto Grotto, once part of 'historic' Paraguay.

At the same time, Britain and France moved to recognise Oriele Antoine I as King of Araucania and Patagonia, the Mapuche indian lands South of Argentina.

Grey Wolf

This is Part 4?