1948 SA Election: Smuts Wins. What next?

Do you have a source for that? Sounds fascinating but I've never heard that before.

I think we really need to start reading parliamentary debates for this thread!

In pursuit of the more SA / UP specific points, I've seen mention of debates in parliament in 47-48 that may well answer the wider questions, but I have been unable, with cursory searching, to find full text of the sessions. I've found indexes though.

Now I would assume it would be easier to find and search historic UK sessions, but I have not checked either.
 
Bechuanaland was actually considered part of a greater South Africa I think. I saw an election poster from the 1924 election where a man with two heads (Hertzog and Cresswell) is trying to push South Africa into the abyss, with Smuts stopping them. South Africa is depicted as including SW Africa and Bechuanaland. I'll see if I can find the book I saw the poster in and post it here.

Smuts was also interested in Southern Mozambique I believe. I am open to correction but I believe he toyed with the idea of trying to buy it from the Portuguese.
Interesting. I'd like to see that poster.
 
Do you have a source for that? Sounds fascinating but I've never heard that before.

The House of Commons official report and House of Lords official report from H.M. Stationery Office, 1952

Northern Rhodesia Legislative Council Debates, Issues 53-57, 1946,
Issues 63-66 1949
 
In the 1920s I did read that Smuts wanted to acquire Mozambique from the Portuguese, as Lourenço Marques was the principal port for the Transvaal. However, once Salazar came to power he was adamantly against selling or ceding any inch of Portuguese territory, using slogans such as "Portugal is not for sale". In addition, he managed to balance Portugal's budgets and erase the debt making this a non-issue.

In the 1920s, I did read a contemporary source once that Smuts envisioned the Union acquiring all of the British territories up to East Africa (Uganda, Kenya, Tanganyika), the Portuguese colonies and possibly the Belgian Congo to form a great dominion that would be a sort of United States of Africa. However, this seems far fetched.
 
I'll look for it tomorrow and post it on here as its quite late at the moment. Be assured if I'm wrong I will man up to a mistake.

Sorry for the delay in responding. The holidays period are, of course, a busy time of year for a young family.

I found the following quotes in Ian Smith's memoirs which is of interest. With respect to Rhodesia possibly joining the Union after a Smuts victory in 1948 the reference is not as strong as I recalled. However it was talked about as a possibility:

There was one other significant fact. Early in my political career I remember listening to Sir Godfrey Huggins talking to a group of MPs, philosophising over the National Party's victory at the polls in 1948. Clearly, he was sad at the defeat of his old colleague Smuts, and at the new trend which was developing in South Africa, which would not be conducive to bringing our countries closer. But most interesting was his comment on South West Africa. Because of South Africa's contribution during the war just ended, its loyalty and dedication to the cause of freedom, going back as far as the First World War, and because of the very high standing of General Smuts, regarded as one of the great statesmen of the world - an undertaking was given that South West Africa would be handed over for incorporation into the Union as a fifth province. It was logical: South Africa had controlled the territory since the First World War, when it took it over from the Germans on behalf of the Allies, and South West African MPs were elected and sat in the Parliament in Cape Town, as the other South African MPs did. To all intents and purposes it had been part of South Africa for the past thirty years, although technically it was a mandated territory. Huggins believed that this plan would now end. In view of the new government's announced reactionary policy, and their record of opposition to Smuts' war effort, neither Britain nor any of the other allies would now support the plan. Moreover, added Huggins, certain Rhodesians were airing the possibility of resurrecting the idea of 1923, to take Rhodesia into the Union. 'Any such idea has now been dashed,' he added sombrely. -Ian Smith, Bitter Harvest: Zimbabwe and the Aftermath of its independence. (London: John Blake Publishing, 1997).5

Here is his quote about the 1923 referendum, which is also quite interesting:

It is easy to be wise through hindsight, but clearly Rhodesians made the wrong decision. The practical and economic benefits of joining the Union, obvious at that time, would have materialised and even exceed predictions. With the advantages of being part of a larger and more diversified economy, access to transport and harbour facilities, elimination of customs and trade barriers, retaining our Commonwealth preferences - because South Africa at that time was part of the British Empire - things could only have improved. -Ian Smith, Bitter Harvest: Zimbabwe and the Aftermath of its independence. (London: John Blake Publishing, 1997).3

And here is a quote about what he thought the 1948 election result would be if the 1923 referendum was successful:

The election result was a shock, not only to South African opinion but world opinion. It was a surprise even to the victorious Afrikaner National Party, which was not really prepared for the event. There was, however, a precedent: the British had rejected their great war hero, Churchill. South Africans followed suit. Such is the ingratitude, the unpredictability, the illogicality of human beings. The defeat of the Smuts government was one of the most profound events affecting the history of Africa. Had Rhodesia been the 'fifth province', Smuts would have won that election. There can be no doubt that Rhodesians would have voted solidly for the United Party, and their representation of twelve to fifteen seats would have made the crucial difference. -Ian Smith, Bitter Harvest: Zimbabwe and the Aftermath of its independence. (London: John Blake Publishing, 1997).4
 
Was it that much of a shock to South Africans though? I always assumed it was, but having looked at it again recently, the mood on the ground seemed to be anti UP, the by election results had almost all trended against the UP (whether they lost or not) and the redistricting had obviously gone against the UP.

Now, Smuts losing his seat is a shock, but the result?
 
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