WI Song China successfully industrializes?

[Sirius]

Kaifeng, capital of the early Song Dynasty was the center of a near industrial revolution in the 11th century. The Chinese were producing large quantities of steal with coal, which was also used for heating and other purposes. They invented joint stock companies which funded an age of naval exploration and pioneered the use of paper money during this time.

The Jurchen invasion in 1127 completely disrupted this progress and the Mongol conquest a century later, followed by the plague and civil war drew china back from the precipice of an industrial revolution. But what if the Song had been able to continue down their course? How would the world look if China actually had fully industrialized in the 12th century?

EDIT: More questions? In a sino-centric world, what would be the 0 point of the calendar? The founding of the Qin Dynasty (221 BC)? The birth of Confucius (551 BC)? Some other mark?

 

[ray243]

Kaifeng, capital of the early Song Dynasty was the center of a near industrial revolution in the 11th century. The Chinese were producing large quantities of steal with coal, which was also used for heating and other purposes. They invented joint stock companies which funded an age of naval exploration and pioneered the use of paper money during this time.

The Jurchen invasion in 1127 completely disrupted this progress and the Mongol conquest a century later, followed by the plague and civil war drew china back from the precipice of an industrial revolution. But what if the Song had been able to continue down their course? How would the world look if China actually had fully industrialized in the 12th century?

EDIT: More questions? In a sino-centric world, what would be the 0 point of the calendar? The founding of the Qin Dynasty (221 BC)? The birth of Confucius (551 BC)? Some other mark?

You are assuming that those factors enough for Song to industrialise.

 

[The Kiat]

Unless they devise a means to stop the Mongols, much of this Song technology might be lost when the barbarians cross the river. The Chinese already could mass produce crossbows and other weapons (they invented interchangeable parts) without what we would call industrial factories. Who knows what the Khan would do with industrial technology; probably not a whole lot.

EDIT: More questions? In a sino-centric world, what would be the 0 point of the calendar? The founding of the Qin Dynasty (221 BC)? The birth of Confucius (551 BC)? Some other mark?

The first unification of China by the Qin seems the most logical starting point. Actaully, Qin Shi Huang Di tried to make it the starting point by wiping out all the historical documents predating his life.

 

[Deleted member 67076]

You are assuming that those factors enough for Song to industrialise.

So, what is enough to industrialize?

 

[Faeelin]

So, what is enough to industrialize?

An English accent.

It depends on how you define industrialization. Was England industrializing in 1810?

What about 1810 England with no steam engines?

 

[EternalCynic]

EDIT: More questions? In a sino-centric world, what would be the 0 point of the calendar? The founding of the Qin Dynasty (221 BC)? The birth of Confucius (551 BC)? Some other mark?

The first definitively dated point in Chinese history was a rebellion during the Zhou Dynasty in 841 BCE. So we would be in the year 2854. Government documents in China would continue to refer to the present day as "Year X in Emperor Y's Reign".

 

[Nihao]

EDIT: More questions? In a sino-centric world, what would be the 0 point of the calendar? The founding of the Qin Dynasty (221 BC)? The birth of Confucius (551 BC)? Some other mark?

Probably not the founding of Qin dynasty, as Shi Huang Di was infamous as a tyranny in ancient China. The year when Huang Di defeated Chi You, as Huang Di was said to have found the Chinese civilization.

 

[SunDeep]

Government documents in China would continue to refer to the present day as "Year X in Emperor Y's Reign".

Assuming that China endures to the present day as an Imperial nation, of course. Industrialisation is always going to lead to some major societal changes, and with roughly 8 centuries for things to take effect, around four times as long as is has been from the onset of industrialisation to the present-day IOTL, you're likely to get butterflies rendering all but the geographical landscape of this alternate world unrecognisable. In fact, given the timeframes, this world might not even end up being Sino-centric, any more than our own world could still remain Anglo-centric in another 600 years' time.

 

[Urcea]

So, what is enough to industrialize?

Depends upon the openness of the society. I know little about Song China but I do know that the only reason industrialization could occur in England was because of the institutional divergences that made it the freest (or most inclusive) country in Europe during the 18th century.

 

[Admiral Brown]

Depends upon the openness of the society. I know little about Song China but I do know that the only reason industrialization could occur in England was because of the institutional divergences that made it the freest (or most inclusive) country in Europe during the 18th century.

We don't know that, actually. Industrialization happened only once IOTL, and spread from there, so we can't know for sure what is needed for a country to industrialize. It's not like agriculture or writting, innovations that we know for certain that came independently in different places, so we are able to compare what factors might have led to these, by comparing societies which made this discoveries to see what they had in common*. But we cannot do that with industrialization, since we have only one society where it happened, which makes very difficult to determine which factors (such as how "free" a society is) a prerequisite for industrialization. How can we be sure industrialization cannot happen first in an authoritarian society? Didn't Soviet Russia industrialize, after all? That's the difficult par of this issue...

* As far as we can, of course, because these are ancient societies and we don't know that much about them

 

[06294086]

Kaifeng, capital of the early Song Dynasty was the center of a near industrial revolution in the 11th century. The Chinese were producing large quantities of steal with coal, which was also used for heating and other purposes. They invented joint stock companies which funded an age of naval exploration and pioneered the use of paper money during this time.

The Jurchen invasion in 1127 completely disrupted this progress and the Mongol conquest a century later, followed by the plague and civil war drew china back from the precipice of an industrial revolution. But what if the Song had been able to continue down their course? How would the world look if China actually had fully industrialized in the 12th century?

EDIT: More questions? In a sino-centric world, what would be the 0 point of the calendar? The founding of the Qin Dynasty (221 BC)? The birth of Confucius (551 BC)? Some other mark?

The 0 point of the calendar should be the start of Yellow Emperor's reign = 2698 BC.

The biggest mistake that Song emperors made is their lack of interest in making their military strong - by new technologies such as advanced firearms. Song's technology and economy was the top class in the world. What they lack is military strength.

Russia's success in driving away the Mongols is contributed to the effective use of firearms against them. There is no reason why the Song cannot emulate their success provided there is political will.

The effect to the world ? A much earlier "modern era" is very likely.

 

[Malta]

If the Mongols and their Civil Wars were a lot worse before the Song were invaded...

I think the character of Somg industrialization so to speak was a form of the Cottage Industry.

Though as said their are other components of Industrialization such as commerce and paper money. Which worked.

 

[Urcea]

Didn't Soviet Russia industrialize, after all? That's the difficult par of this issue..

That occurred primarily out of the result of the state reorganizing the economy, leading to growth. That's why economic growth capped out in the 70s and declined.

 

[Elfwine]

Admiral Brown:
The question that comes to mind: Why doesn't the Song progress count as an industrial revolution?

If we have only one example, there ought to be some criteria that separates this or other near misses from the real thing.

 

[NotYetRegistered]

They invented joint stock companies which funded an age of naval exploration and pioneered the use of paper money during this time.

Eh? The Dutch had that as well, excluding the paper money, but it didn't mean there was a going to be an industrial revolution.

I don't think high productivity and advanced trading techniques would inevitably lead to industrialization, or even lead to industrialization at all.

 

[ray243]

Eh? The Dutch had that as well, excluding the paper money, but it didn't mean there was a going to be an industrial revolution.

I don't think high productivity and advanced trading techniques would inevitably lead to industrialization, or even lead to industrialization at all.

Yeah. For instance, many other European nations simply relied on water and wind as energy source.

If they needed fuel, they can simply use wood as it was less troublesome to obtain coal. As Britain have relatively easy access to coal, and lack of sufficient wood compared to other European states, they were essentially "forced" to adopt the steam engine.

Industrialisation did not begin in Germany, Italy nor Spain even though those places share many similar attributes with the British economic model. If those nations did not industrialise, then why should Song China industrialise as well?

In fact, many European countries only really begin to industrialise in the 19th century.

 

[nomisma]

EDIT: More questions? In a sino-centric world, what would be the 0 point of the calendar? The founding of the Qin Dynasty (221 BC)? The birth of Confucius (551 BC)? Some other mark?

Likely there will be no such thing in this sino-centric world. Chinese era name method will be used continuously in sinicized countries, others will continue use their traditionally numbering method.

 

[Elfwine]

Yeah. For instance, many other European nations simply relied on water and wind as energy source.

If they needed fuel, they can simply use wood as it was less troublesome to obtain coal. As Britain have relatively easy access to coal, and lack of sufficient wood compared to other European states, they were essentially "forced" to adopt the steam engine.

Steam engines can burn wood quite easily, so not having coal isn't actually a deterrent to steam development.

 

[ray243]

Steam engines can burn wood quite easily, so not having coal isn't actually a deterrent to steam development.

You do know that one of the reason why steam engines were adopted by the British was to pump water out of the coal mines right?

 

[Elfwine]

You do know that one of the reason why steam engines were adopted by the British was to pump water out of the coal mines right?

Yes. But that doesn't make coal a necessary thing for steam engines and thus Britain's abundance of coal anything more than a "so what would anyone do with one?".