Keynes' Cruisers

[Zheng He]

As to the question of Mac's replacement, and whether or not I have overcomplicated maters, I think that they are far more complex than would first appear.

First off, it is still peacetime in America, so all the normal protocols will apply. Now I freely admit I am not an expert on the workings of the American Military, or the American political system. So I could be totally wrong, and if I am, then feel free to tell me.

Now my understanding is that America has in-place curtain regulations in regards to signor military appointments, and these include Senate confirmation of such appointments. Given that such confirmation is a political matter, Gen Marshal will need the Secretary of War to send this matter to the Senate. He the SoW, would expect to be consulted before being asked to advance his recommendation to the Senators, as would the President who I believe is technically the the C in C of American military forces. And would simply as a matter of curtsy and good manners, to be consulted.

There is also the question of the USN, who if the replacement for Mac, is also commander US Forces Philippians, and the Asiatic Fleet is included. Would also expect to have their opinion sort out. While the Philippians has not yet been granted its independence, it does have an elected government, which includes a President, and he and the local political establishment would expect to be involved in the question. As will the American equivalent of the British Foreign Secretary, who given that the Philippians are in the mix, will want to be included.

There is also the question of legitimacy, if there is a requirement for the appointment to be confirmed by the Senate. Then if for any reason the man that Gen Marshals puts in place hasn't received confirmation from the US Senate, he can not take command and issue orders. Any officer would be perfectly within his rights, and to an extent required to ignore them.

Once again if I have gotten it all wrong, then please put me right.
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RR.

Your point that it is peacetime is key. So what likely happens is Wainwright fills in as acting commander while a formal replacement for MacArthur is selected and then gets through the confirmation process and all of that other great stuff. This all probably takes some time and the war probably starts before MacArthur's replacement gets out there so Wainwright becomes the commander by default.

For a timeline consider this - Kimmel was formally relieved of command on 17 December 1941 and Nimitz did not arrive until 31 December even though he was notified that he was Kimmel's replacement on the 16th and that was after the war started and Hawaii is a lot closer to the US than the Philippines.

 

[Driftless]

Your point that it is peacetime is key. So what likely happens is Wainwright fills in as acting commander while a formal replacement for MacArthur is selected and then gets through the confirmation process and all of that other great stuff. This all probably takes some time and the war probably starts before MacArthur's replacement gets out there so Wainwright becomes the commander by default.

For a timeline consider this - Kimmel was formally relieved of command on 17 December 1941 and Nimitz did not arrive until 31 December even though he was notified that he was Kimmel's replacement on the 16th and that was after the war started and Hawaii is a lot closer to the US than the Philippines.

And Kimmel was still alive and on site.

 

[Donald Reaver]

I would agree with Ramp-Rat there is going to be a period of confusion with the death of MacArthur. Even if he is quickly replaced it will be hard for his successor to immediately change things without seeming disrespectful and resented. Normally not a big deal but we are dealing with a few weeks here.

In peoples opinion what is the chance that the Japanese will decide to rush their plans a week or so to take advantage of this. They are tightly scripted, can they shave a week off their attack date?

 

[fester]

I would agree with Ramp-Rat there is going to be a period of confusion with the death of MacArthur. Even if he is quickly replaced it will be hard for his successor to immediately change things without seeming disrespectful and resented. Normally not a big deal but we are dealing with a few weeks here.

In peoples opinion what is the chance that the Japanese will decide to rush their plans a week or so to take advantage of this. They are tightly scripted, can they shave a week off their attack date?

Their time line has maybe a day or two to wiggle.

 

[calvinhobbesliker]

I would agree with Ramp-Rat there is going to be a period of confusion with the death of MacArthur. Even if he is quickly replaced it will be hard for his successor to immediately change things without seeming disrespectful and resented. Normally not a big deal but we are dealing with a few weeks here.

In peoples opinion what is the chance that the Japanese will decide to rush their plans a week or so to take advantage of this. They are tightly scripted, can they shave a week off their attack date?

In OTL the Japanese carriers departed the Kurile Islands on November 26. Since it's already November 21, it's hard for the fleet to leave much earlier, and almost impossible if they still want to attack on a Sunday.

 

[Unknown]

The Japanese will probably make the mistake of assuming the Philippines is in a state of confusion and go like OTL...

They're about to enter a lot of bear traps...

Yeah, MacArthur won't have the best reputation in 1941 (not with his dealing with the Bonus Army widely being seen as one of the (many) causes of Hoover's defeat in 1932)...

 

[Driftless]

Of course Gen Marshall & US Commanders don't know the exact Japanese timeline, but they had a good sense that the attack was coming soon. If Marshall has an expectation of divisiveness in the command structure; he may summon one or more of the parties to a "conference" at a location and time of his choosing. There may be more than one way to skin the cat....

 

[Crowbar Six]

Personally I've always favored Penguin Ecological studies in the Aleutian Islands.

That would be an especially pointless job considering that Penguins are an Antarctic species.

 

[TonyA]

That would be an especially pointless job considering that Penguins are an Antarctic species.

Auk-ward!

 

[Alanith]

That would be an especially pointless job considering that Penguins are an Antarctic species.

That's the entire point, yes. Though I suppose the Falklands are even further from anywhere that could possibly be of concern...

 

[Oldbill]

As far as I know, the military appointments take place with senate confirmation means when they are commissioned, promoted or brought back to active duty as an officer. When Mac was appointed as head of United States Army Forces in the Far East (USAFEAF) he first had to be recalled to active duty and then appointed again. In his case, he retired in 1937 as a General (4 stars), was recalled and appointed as a Brigadier General in 1941, and finally General of the Army (five star) in 1944. Each promotion was also an appointment. Other agencies input into his appointment to command in the PI was pretty minimal, courtesies not withstanding. Whoever is due to take over from him (Wainwright being the logical successor) would possibly be promoted, and therefore need the appropriate approval. Having said that, I don't see his (Mac's) death leaving a vacuum of command. There is still a chain of command in the PI, and whoever takes over gets to decide if Macs plans are good and follow them, or not. Consulting the Navy for their approval of the next head of FEAF isn't happening. There was still serious inter-service rivalry between the two, not on a Japanese scale of course, but there nonetheless.
As to the question of legitimacy, if an officer has been commissioned (received Senate approval, ie, appointed) he has legal authority. So, whoever Marshall says to take over will take over, SOW Stimson will listen to Marshall, as will FDR. The three had a good working relationship.
Perhaps someone else with a good knowledge of the WWII appointment and commissioning process would elaborate on this. I can always learn something new if I'm wrong.

 

[sloreck]

The army is going to want someone with appropriate rank, and hopefully some experience in the PI at at least a LtCol level or higher, to fill mac's position if they are not going to simply let Wainwright move up. Folks like this are not lying around at the Army-Navy Club in D.C. waiting for a job. Marshall has identify the replacement he wants, and then figure out who will move in to the empty spot that was just created and so on. With Wainwright, a very competent general whop has been on the spot for some time, it is not necessary to pick someone and put him on the fastest transportation to the PI even if Marshall wants somebody else to be in the top spot. As a practical matter, and the Senate won't have to approve a transfer that does not involve a promotion, there is no way a replacement will get there before PH - even if 12/7 +/- a couple of days

 

[RyderWest]

Ahh! Only remembered the CA's, had the CL's confused with another ATL's extra CLAA build...thanx...

USS Norfolk (CL-56) is one of the repeat St. Louis class light cruisers, a modification to the Brooklyn-class light cruisers. The main addition would be the 4 twin 5 inch gun turrets, two on each side.

 

[Butchpfd]

As to the question of Mac's replacement, and whether or not I have overcomplicated maters, I think that they are far more complex than would first appear.

First off, it is still peacetime in America, so all the normal protocols will apply. Now I freely admit I am not an expert on the workings of the American Military, or the American political system. So I could be totally wrong, and if I am, then feel free to tell me.

Now my understanding is that America has in-place curtain regulations in regards to signor military appointments, and these include Senate confirmation of such appointments. Given that such confirmation is a political matter, Gen Marshal will need the Secretary of War to send this matter to the Senate. He the SoW, would expect to be consulted before being asked to advance his recommendation to the Senators, as would the President who I believe is technically the the C in C of American military forces. And would simply as a matter of curtsy and good manners, to be consulted.

There is also the question of the USN, who if the replacement for Mac, is also commander US Forces Philippians, and the Asiatic Fleet is included. Would also expect to have their opinion sort out. While the Philippians has not yet been granted its independence, it does have an elected government, which includes a President, and he and the local political establishment would expect to be involved in the question. As will the American equivalent of the British Foreign Secretary, who given that the Philippians are in the mix, will want to be included.

There is also the question of legitimacy, if there is a requirement for the appointment to be confirmed by the Senate. Then if for any reason the man that Gen Marshals puts in place hasn't received confirmation from the US Senate, he can not take command and issue orders. Any officer would be perfectly within his rights, and to an extent required to ignore them.

Once again if I have gotten it all wrong, then please put me right.

RR.

As long as he was Commander Asiatic Fleet, Thomas Hart held the rank of 4 star Admiral, as opposed to his a actual 3 stars. I believe that would, unless Washington acts immediately, make Hart, Senior to anyone else in the U.S. Far East forces. If he was in command, Hart was smart enough to tell the Army, follow WP Orange, protect what you have for the long fight, and expect ene,y action.That was why Hart had dispersed the Asiatic Fleet out of Japanese Air attack range.

 

[MageOhki]

It's complex.

First: Technically, US practices on position and rank haven't changed since before WW2. In reality, they have. Unified commands came about because of WW2.
MacA had no command authority over Hart, and vice versa. They were separate commands, with MacA commanding the Army (and Air Corps) forces, Hart Navy. (A similar setup happened in Pearl, too..)

Now, Marshall can appoint anyone he likes to the position, and go "He's in command" and everyone below him has to obey, except Hart, since technically the Navy/Army didn't share commands.

And Hart couldn't take over as 'senior officer on site' Just not done.

 

[Finbarr the Fair]

In OTL the Japanese carriers departed the Kurile Islands on November 26. Since it's already November 21, it's hard for the fleet to leave much earlier, and almost impossible if they still want to attack on a Sunday.

Yes. I'd be surprised if the Japanese timetable can be adjusted much, if at all. The fuel load for Kido Butai was just sufficient to get them to the launch point on Sunday 7th at a specified cruising speed. They couldn't have taken significantly less time in transit as a faster cruising speed would use far more fuel. I think it's a cube law relationship, doubling the speed multiplies the fuel cost eightfold.

So if the Japanese task forces could depart a couple of days ahead of OTL, that's all they'd gain. IF they want the PH attack to be on a Sunday they're stuck with the OTL date or later.

 

[gallen95]

As far as I know, the military appointments take place with senate confirmation means when they are commissioned, promoted or brought back to active duty as an officer. When Mac was appointed as head of United States Army Forces in the Far East (USAFEAF) he first had to be recalled to active duty and then appointed again. In his case, he retired in 1937 as a General (4 stars), was recalled and appointed as a Brigadier General in 1941, and finally General of the Army (five star) in 1944. Each promotion was also an appointment. Other agencies input into his appointment to command in the PI was pretty minimal, courtesies not withstanding. Whoever is due to take over from him (Wainwright being the logical successor) would possibly be promoted, and therefore need the appropriate approval. Having said that, I don't see his (Mac's) death leaving a vacuum of command. There is still a chain of command in the PI, and whoever takes over gets to decide if Macs plans are good and follow them, or not. Consulting the Navy for their approval of the next head of FEAF isn't happening. There was still serious inter-service rivalry between the two, not on a Japanese scale of course, but there nonetheless.
As to the question of legitimacy, if an officer has been commissioned (received Senate approval, ie, appointed) he has legal authority. So, whoever Marshall says to take over will take over, SOW Stimson will listen to Marshall, as will FDR. The three had a good working relationship.
Perhaps someone else with a good knowledge of the WWII appointment and commissioning process would elaborate on this. I can always learn something new if I'm wrong.

Something else to remember is that there was Temporary and Permanent ranks at this time. Most of the Generals in WW2 were permanent Captains, Majors and Lt. Colonels thus all of the concern from Bradley, Ike and others on what to do with Patton who's permanent rank was a Full Bird and out rank them although their temporary rank exceeded his.

 

[fester]

November 22, 1941 0741 North Atlantic

The longboat quartered the water. Two sailors in the bow threw a rope and dragged an oil-covered man aboard the wooden craft. A loud keening broke the noise of the sea as the last boiler of USS Kearny was submerged in the cold water of the North Atlantic. The cold water hit the hot metal of the boiler and more steam escaped.


Twenty minutes later, the last man was pulled aboard another American destroyer as the rest of the convoy escort hunted for the U-boat that sank an American warship.

 

[fester]

November 22, 1941 MCAS Ewa, Oahu

“Gentlemen, we will be shipping out for overseas duty on December 20th. We will be the garrison for Samoa. Our mission will be to hold the island against all attack while also improving the facilities to guard the sea lanes between the United States and Australia.

The 2nd Marine Brigade is ready for war. Accompanying us will be VMF 111, VMS 87, Defense Battalion 3, A Company, 1st Marine Tank Battalion and 3/11 Marines. The Navy is chopping to us Naval Construction Battalion 12, Patrol Squadron 33 and PT Squadron Seven.

This is a powerful force. We have been training hard together in Hawaii against the Army and Army Air Corps, but over the next three weeks, we will be at war. Tomorrow until December 1st is a maintenance stand-down. Between December 2nd and December 11th, Samoa Force will act as if we are under siege. Dawn patrols will be flown, unidentified aircraft will be intercepted, defenses will be dug, and every contact will be treated as hostile until positively identified as friendly. On December 12th, we will stand down to repair our equipment and review the lessons that we will have learned. Our men will get a few days of liberty in Honolulu before we load our equipment at Pearl Harbor on the 15th. We depart on the afternoon tide on the 20th.

Live ammunition will be carried by all aircraft, and live fire exercises are being arranged for all units. We will be ready when our country asks us to do our duty.


Any questions?”


The room erupted with noise as the rumors had been confirmed. They would be going to war, or at least getting ready for a war that almost everyone knew was coming. Bets would be paid off. Samoa had been the leader around the turn, but Luzon, Guam and Australia had been seen as reasonable bets. One man had placed a month’s salary on New Caledonia and he was lucky that his girl turned down his offer of marriage.

 

[fester]

November 22, 1941 near Marsa Al Brega

Nine miles from the coast was when the Royal Navy became far less dangerous. HMS Terror and the three battleships could throw one-ton shells further inland but the shallows forced the cruisers and gunboats to stay far enough out to sea that they could no longer influence the land battle. The New Zealanders had counted on a division of light cruisers to throw more heavy shells in three minutes than an entire Murder concentration could fire in ten minutes to keep Italian and German concentrations on the ground and under cover.

As day broke, the sun was hidden behind dunes and low fog. Two hundred tanks and thousands of infantrymen were advancing behind a rolling barrage of high explosive and smoke shells. The Italian infantry soon came to grips with the New Zealander outpost line. They had been able to move far enough forward that pre-planned defensive fires could not be called in as the artillery would be danger-close. The fight soon evolved into the nastiest fighting possible as bayonets and butts were used as often as shovels and fists. Grenades were too powerful and dangerous to use as the explosions would kill squad and section mates just as the enemy was wounded too.

Italian tanks pushed forward. Some stopped seventy-five yards from a hard point and fired their machine guns at hold-outs. Others just advanced and crushed the crunchy infantrymen who were not fast enough to get out of their way. By mid-morning, the spoiling attack had penetrated three miles into the New Zealanders and had forced reactions. The Australians were also being pressed by an Italian infantry division while the 4th Indian Division held their position against aggressive patrolling and light probes. The 3rd Indian Motor Brigade which held the corp’s unanchored flank reported late in the afternoon that they saw two columns of Panzers forty miles from the coast. Those Panzers bulled through an anti-tank ambush and were heading east.

By nightfall, XIII Corps was moving to located and blunt the German panzer columns. Hurricanes and Tomahawks had already started to shoot up the petrol lorries that those columns needed to sustain themselves.