The Myth of Intervention and the ACW

But once again, we are deeply mired in numbers and data and neither side seems to be convincing the other.

I am not at all worried whether anyone is convinced or not. Data can be interpreted in all sorts of different ways, the important thing is when presenting an historical work to attempt to make sure that as many details are as accurate as possible. Interpretations on the other hand are more flexible.

It's a good point, but we made it earlier and he didn't listen. In this case, the Guards going overseas is clearly just one of the many indications that The End Was Nigh.

I still think overall that Mike Snyder's second effort is a great deal better than the first. Yes there are blind spots concerning the Guards and the nature of the forces stationed in Ireland for example but credit where credit is due. At least he has acknowledged there are more deployable forces available. Maybe a little clarification on the available Royal Navy units but hopefully he will address that in re-drafts.

If he continues to be convinced the US would win any conflict fair enough and while I tend to agree that HMG's interpretation of the Trent incident was fairly sincere a lot of people do honestly believe in the notion of perfidious Albion (the concept not the board member).
 
I am not at all worried whether anyone is convinced or not. Data can be interpreted in all sorts of different ways, the important thing is when presenting an historical work to attempt to make sure that as many details are as accurate as possible. Interpretations on the other hand are more flexible.
realize that I've seen these massive data dumps arguing for both sides in umpteen threads now, and I'm approaching the point where my brain is going to liquify and dribble out my ears...
 
kinda what I thought. Does improved funding do any good, since the CSA still has to import stuff through the US blockade?

Not particularly. I mean more money in the bank might offset the inflation a little, they could purchase a few proper warships, but it's definitely not enough to really change things.
 

Saphroneth

Banned
Not particularly. I mean more money in the bank might offset the inflation a little, they could purchase a few proper warships, but it's definitely not enough to really change things.
I'd actually contest that - recognition alone doesn't win the war, but it can swing things by making e.g. the Union naval situation very bad. The Laird Rams OTL were stopped from purchase largely because there was no recognition in place, AIUI - and they were very good ships, superior to much of the Union's navy and intended to raid the Union coast.
If that happens in 1864, war-weariness becomes a potential problem.
 
The Laird Rams OTL were stopped from purchase largely because there was no recognition in place, AIUI
Even if the British had recognised the South, the Queen's proclamation of neutrality and the 1819 Foreign Enlistment Act would have still held- which means no Laird Rams.

EDIT:
Mind you, my own expectation of a three pronged Union attack aimed at the Detroit frontier, the Niagara frontier, and the Prescott fortifications would probably face its own difficulties that I hope ti highlight in Wrapped in Flames.
You've probably seen it already, but Henry Halleck's 1846 'Elements of military art and science' goes through the US army's pre-war planning for an invasion of Canada.

'A base may be parallel, oblique, or perpendicular to our line of operations, or to the enemy's line of defence. Some prefer one plan and some another; the best authorities, however, think the oblique or perpendicular more advantageous than the parallel... An American army moving by Lake Champlain, would be based perpendicular on the great line of communication between Boston and Buffalo; if moving from the New England states on Quebec and Montreal, the line of operations would be oblique ; and if moving from the Niagara frontier by Lake Ontario and the St. Lawrence, the line would be nearly parallel both to our base and to the enemy's line of defence — an operation, under the circumstances, exceedingly objectionable.'

'We are fully aware of the great advantages to be derived from the reduction of Quebec; and we are also aware of the great difficulties to be encountered in any attempt to accomplish that object. It may, and probably will ere long, be made to surrender to our arms ; but it would be utter folly to base our military operations on the contingency of a short and successful siege. By advancing upon Montreal by the Lake Champlain route, we could cut off the Canadian forces in the West from all reinforcements; and then, as circumstances might direct, could besiege Quebec, or attack the enemy in the field, or perhaps, manoeuvring as the French did at the siege of Mantua, accomplish both objects at the same time.

'We have seen that it was one of Napoleon's maxims that an army should choose the shortest and most direct line of operations, which should either pierce the enemy's line of defence, or cut off his communications with his base. It is the opinion of men of the best military talent in our army that the Lake Champlain line satisfies all these conditions at the same time... All agree that the St. Lawrence above Quebec constitutes the key point of the enemy's defence, and the objective point towards which all our operations should be directed. To reach this point, all our Boards of Engineers have deemed it best to collect our troops at Albany and advance by Lake Champlain, a distance of only two hundred miles. Besides the advantages of a good water communication the whole distance for the transportation of military stores, there are several roads on each side, all concentrating on this line within our own territory. It has already been shown by the brief sketch of our northern wars, that this line has been the field of strife and blood for fifteen campaigns. Nature has marked it out as our shortest and easiest line of intercourse with Canada, both in peace and war. Military diversions will always be made on the eastern and western extremities of this frontier, and important secondary or auxiliary operations be carried on by the eastern and western routes ; but until we overthrow the whole system of military science as established by the Romans, revived by Frederick, and practised and improved by Napoleon, the central and interior line, under all ordinary circumstances, will furnish the greatest probabilities of success.'

'It is agreed upon all sides that the British must first collect their forces at Quebec, and then pass along the line of the St. Lawrence and Lake Ontario to reach the Niagara and Detroit frontiers. Our boards of engineers have deemed it best to collect troops on the Champlain line, and, by penetrating between Montreal and Quebec, separate the enemy's forces and cut off all the remainder of Canada from supplies and reinforcements from England.'

Opinions change over time, of course. However, in the context of a Trent War the Union has very little scope for anything other than a Schlieffen-esque throw of the dice to get the British out of the war. As such, I think it's likely they rush Montreal with everything they can put together as soon as the roads permit.
 
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Saphroneth

Banned
Even if the British had recognised the South, the Queen's proclamation of neutrality and the 1819 Foreign Enlistment Act would have still held- which means no Laird Rams.
Ah, I see. Thanks for the clarification - with recognition and no intervention, no Laird rams unless tacitly allowed through (or successfully disguised).
Intervention, OTOH, might well end up with the Laird rams being purchased by the British government...
 
I love how this entire thread has become a tirade of the inherent utter superiority of the British F. Empire when in reality the exact reason the British did not go to war over Trent or at any point in the American Civil War was that they were not convinced they would be able to win a clear and decisive victory over the Union.

You may now all be offended.
 

Saphroneth

Banned
I love how this entire thread has become a tirade of the inherent utter superiority of the British F. Empire when in reality the exact reason the British did not go to war over Trent or at any point in the American Civil War was that they were not convinced they would be able to win a clear and decisive victory over the Union.

You may now all be offended.
Yes, I think I can be offended.

The reason they didn't go to war was because they had no compelling reason to. Trent was a war-warning situation where the British had issued conditional war orders, moved troops, moved rifles and modern artillery, transferred ships, sent warning orders and had plotted out their basic strategy - it was a reason to go to war.

They may not have been convinced, but they felt it worth giving a try.

By contrast, the Union suffered a bank run, moved a few companies of troops, wrote jingoistic newspaper articles, and then released prisoners after recieving an ultimatum. Shortly thereafter they conceded the mutual right of search to the British.
 
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I love how this entire thread has become a tirade of the inherent utter superiority of the British F. Empire when in reality the exact reason the British did not go to war over Trent or at any point in the American Civil War was that they were not convinced they would be able to win a clear and decisive victory over the Union.

And yet, in the end, it was the Union that back down, not the British.
 

Saphroneth

Banned
And here's some gun data.
In this I assume that the round metal and armour metal are of identical quality between the British and the Union; this is not the case (especially for armour) but it's a reasonable first assumption.
n.b. 11" laminate is roughly equal to unbacked 8" plate, and 4.5" backed is roughly equal to 6.5" unbacked.




For wrought iron balls attacking wrought iron the Fairbairn formula holds up pretty well.
T/D = (0.0007692)[(W/D^3)V^2]^0.5

For the 11" Dahlgren

V (fps) T (penetration, in)
800 2.32
900 2.61
1000 2.90
1100 3.19
1200 3.48
1300 3.77
1400 4.06
1500 4.35
1600 4.63

At 1,600 fps the 11" will just pierce an unbacked 4.5" plate.
The 15" does this at just over 1,000 fps.
The Dahlgren 9" does this:

V (fps) T (penetration, in)
800 1.95
900 2.19
1000 2.43
1100 2.68
1200 2.92
1300 3.16
1400 3.41
1500 3.65
1600 3.89
1700 4.14
1800 4.38
1900 4.62


Both the 9" and 11" were massively overcharged by Dahlgren and he got about 1,400 fps out of them.

Using steel shot, which deforms better and thus transfers more energy, the Noble formula is preferred.


11"

V (fps) T (penetration, in)
800 3.81
900 4.29
1000 4.77
1100 5.25
1200 5.72
1300 6.20
1400 6.68
1500 7.15
1600 7.63
1700 8.11
1800 8.58
1900 9.06

So an unbacked plate would be pierced at around 950 fps, but Warrior (equivalent to a 6.64" unbacked plate at 61 foot-tons of resistance) at around 1,400 fps - so with steel shot and double charges, the 11" could just about penetrate Warrior (though at that powder load it's an interesting question whether Warrior or the 11" breaks first).

For the 9":

V (fps) T (penetration, in)
800 3.20
900 3.60
1000 4.00
1100 4.40
1200 4.80
1300 5.21
1400 5.61
1500 6.01
1600 6.41
1700 6.81
1800 7.21
1900 7.61

Against Warrior there is no possibility even with a steel shot of generating enough velocity.




For the 68 pdr with a 68 lb common shot:

V (fps) T (penetration, in)
800 1.80
900 2.03
1000 2.26
1100 2.48
1200 2.71
1300 2.93
1400 3.16
1500 3.38
1600 3.61
1700 3.83
1800 4.06
1900 4.29



With steel:

V (fps) T (penetration, in)
800 3.06
900 3.44
1000 3.82
1100 4.20
1200 4.58
1300 4.97
1400 5.35
1500 5.73
1600 6.11
1700 6.49
1800 6.88
1900 7.26
2000 8.01

The 68 lber 95 cwt developed 2040 fps over the first 40 yards when fired with the "far" charge. Since 11" laminate is (assuming equivalent metal quality) about equal to an 8" unbacked plate, this would allow a one-shot of a Passaic class monitor at very close range.

So with steel projectiles the 68 lber 95 cwt can penetrate the Passaic class with full normal battering charge, and the 11" gun can penetrate the Warrior with double charge - but if the Warrior is penetrated it's going to knock out maybe one gun (the backing absorbs a lot of energy and prevent spall), while if the Passaic class is penetrated it's going to kill the turret and render it useless (as the spall effects severely harm the crew).

For the 100 pdr Somerset (all steel shot):

V (fps) T (penetration, in)
800 3.39
900 3.82
1000 4.24
1100 4.67
1200 5.09
1300 5.51
1400 5.94
1500 6.36
1600 6.79
1700 7.21
1800 7.63
1900 8.06


The Somerset gun could produce 1,700 to 1,800 fps quite easily at very close range.


The 300 pounder Armstrong (actually fired a 164 lb steel ball as a smoothbore, but if rifled would have fired 300 lb shot) was much better:


V (fps) T (penetration, in)
800 4.02
900 4.53
1000 5.03
1100 5.53
1200 6.03
1300 6.54
1400 7.04
1500 7.54
1600 8.05
1700 8.55
1800 9.05
1900 9.55

This got around 1,750 fps at the muzzle.




Using the 15" Dahlgren it has a penetration velocity against Warrior of 1600 fps for iron shot and 1000 fps for steel shot (assuming both are 440 lb). The authorized charges would develop up to 1500 fps.

As before, this assumes total equality of armour material, which was not the case.


This tells us that:

With iron shot, none of the guns are really able to penetrate Warrior; with steel shot, both the 11" and 15" can, with the 15" having much more leeway and the 11" being at "blow up the gun" powder levels.
With iron shot, the 68 pounder can only penetrate Monitor if the iron is of below average quality (it is) or if it strikes on the non-face section which is 8" thic.
 
Continuing my post

External threats

British Empire -

1. Russia: The British, French, Sardinians and Turks had fought the Russians to a standstill in the Crimea, when a British fleet in the Baltic and Austria's threat of armed intervention forced Russia to sign the Treaty of Paris on 30 March 1856.

The treaty admitted the Ottoman Empire to the European concert, and the Powers promised to respect its independence and territorial integrity. Russia gave up a little land and relinquished its claim to a protectorate over the Christians in the Ottoman domains. The Black Sea was demilitarised, and an international commission was set up to guarantee freedom of commerce and navigation on the Danube River.

Moldavia and Wallachia would stay under nominal Ottoman rule, but would be granted independent constitutions and national assemblies, which were to be monitored by the victorious powers. A project of a referendum was to be set in place to monitor the will of the peoples regarding unification. Moldavia received the south of Bessarabia (Budjak), creating a buffer between the Ottoman Empire and Russia in the west. Romania, which would later be formed from the two territories, would largely remain an Ottoman puppet-state.

New rules of wartime commerce were set out: (1) privateering was illegal; (2) a neutral flag covered enemy goods except contraband; (3) neutral goods, except contraband, were not liable to capture under an enemy flag; (4) a blockade, to be legal, had to be effective.[16]

The treaty also demilitarised the Åland Islands in the Baltic Sea, which belonged to the autonomous Russian Grand Principality of Finland. The fortress Bomarsund had been destroyed by British and French forces in 1854 and the alliance wanted to prevent its future use as a Russian military base.

Once Russia stabilized its domestic situation, it began a process of military modernization including building up the Baltic Fleet and re-arming the Army. Russia was pushing against the outcome and terms of the Treaty, especially where the Balkan territories were concerned and its focus was on the British Empire. The British had to maintain a strong Home Fleet to be prepared to blockade the Skagerrak to prevent the Russian Baltic Fleet from breaking out into open sea and probably making for the Med. In the Med itself, the British had to keep significant assets to secure the ability to move troops to and through the Bosporus in support of the Ottoman Empire. The British Empire ended up with a good deal of the Ottoman Empire's debt, which required a stable and prosperous Empire to pay them off, which was difficult to achieve as long as Russia was a threat. Which it was to India with its growing presence in Central Asia.

2. Absorbing India into the Empire saw the Empire inherit a number of security issues on the borders of the Indian states that comprised the new British Raj. There were problems in Burma, Nepal, Afghanistan, Persia and Ceylon. There was the gold trade with Arab merchants across the Gulf. And the "Great Game" began, as Russia, expanding into Central Asia, coming up against the mountains of Afghanistan. Now Britain was facing Russia across the passes of the Kush and balancing Russian influence in Persia which could threaten India and the Ottoman Empire. This also created the issue of protecting the sea lines of communication to India. Gibraltar and Malta were main fleet bases and garrisoned. The weak point was the new Suez Canal under construction and Egypt, nominally subject to the Ottoman Empire, but more or less independent and heavily influenced by the French, especially through the loans made against the Canal's revenue. Britain needed to secure the Canal, once it was completed and Egypt, which it eventually did in the 1880s. Even without the canal, a significant amount of trade went through Suez into the Indian Ocean. The new Kingdom of Italy was another piece of the puzzle. Arising out of Sardinia's and France's victory over the Austrians in 1859, it now controlled southern Italy and Sicily with ambitions of controlling or conquering the Adriatic coastline and North Africa, which would place a possibly unfriendly, French influenced power on the flank of the sea LoC to India. Crete, Cyprus and Greece then became important to Britain because of their proximity to the LoC. Which explains Britain's relationship with Cyprus and then Ethiopia and the southern coasts of the Arabian peninsula. The primary and soon, secondary, line of communication was secured by British occupation and retention of the Dutch colony in South Africa and its expansion with British settlers and merchants. This drove a need for British bases in western Africa, which then pushed out British markets that then dragged the British militarily and politically in securing the new markets and the security of the LoC by conquering people like the Ashanti. Not only did India absorb British troops, but all the areas that influenced the security of its LoCs with India and the hinterlands beyond India demanded the commitment of British troops.

3. Trade. The armed forces of the British Empire were extended across the globe, opening markets or protecting them from outside competition and the unwillingness of trade partners to take the short end of the stick in commercial treaties. British forces had just completed a joint expedition with the French against the Chinese, were pushing in from the coast of western Africa against the Ashanti and were involved in a joint Spanish-French-British expedition to Veracruz to force Mexico to make payments on its foreign debt. This then created friction with France when the expedition became an armed intervention on the Mexican mainland. The British Empire was still a silent partner in the "Monroe Doctrine" and France's actions in Mexico and later Spanish actions on the South American Pacific Coast pushed against that Doctrine and the protection of British markets it represented. British troops were committed across the Globe from China to Canada to secure the markets needed to expand and maintain the wealth of the British Empire.

4. France: The British Empire enjoyed an uneasy "détente" with Napoleon III's new Empire. Between the 1830s and early 1850s, France was seen as the likely enemy, desiring to re-establish its primacy in European affairs. France looked at Belgium with hungry eyes, a country Britain was committed to defend its sovereignty and independence in writing. French influence in Spain was strong after supporting the current government in power after the last civil war. The French had influence over the western German states and over Italy, though French support for the Pope was a sore spot. The renovation of British coast defenses and the Volunteer movement that reinvigorated parts of the militia system were a direct result of the perceived threat of a French Navy that was revitalized and rebuilt after a period of neglect after the final return of the Bourbons. That threat remained, as the French Navy continued to be built as a force designed to break blockades and destroy seaborne trade, which the British rightly saw as directed against them. France, however, was on the way to over-extending itself with its intervention in Mexico accompanied by its expansion in North Africa in Algeria, Tunis, Morocco and Chad. It's involvement in Italy would make an enemy of Austria and its desire for influence over the western German states would eventually lead to the Franco-Prussian War.

The United States

1. The primary foreign threat at this time was the possibility of support and recognition of the Southern insurrectionists by the European powers. The US sought to counter the efforts of insurrectionist envoys by pointing out that with the Cotton glut and the development of alternate sources, trade with the US was more valuable than any agreements that could be made with the envoys. The attempt by the insurrectionists to "blackmail" the European powers, especially Britain, with the cotton crop of 1859, was exploited by US envoys to position the insurrectionists as "untrustworthy". The US envoys were able to block some of the arms and other purchases made by the insurrectionists, by pushing the neutral position of the European powers in relation to US neutrality during the 1848 insurrections across Europe and by buying up the available arms, regardless of quality. One coup was buying the current and future production of the factories producing the government model of the 1853 rifle and rifle-musket, leaving the insurrectionists to buy from independent gun-makers that ensured that that parts would not be interchangeable. The insurrectionists did have some victories, such as purchasing "merchant" ships that were then armed and crewed by officers holding insurrectionist commissions but mercenary non-commissioned officers and seamen, which then engaged in raiding the US merchant fleet. But the US envoys were able to assist US merchants in transferring their flags to neutral countries. They set up information and propaganda networks aimed at people in neutral countries that would have an affinity to the US cause, such as the British working class or the followers of men like Garibaldi. They especially worked on the anti-slavery politics in Britain and France. They drew a number of the European intelligentsia to their cause and had superior resources, working out of established embassies. The US took two other measures. One was the renovation of the coastal fortifications and their cannon and the building of a fleet of blockade breakers and commerce raiders that would come into service from late 1863, after the "emergency" building programs to establish the quarantine of the coasts of the US, were finished.

2. The support of the "Monroe Doctrine". US envoys to Britain would repeatedly remind the British government of their covert, but publically known, support of the "Monroe Doctrine". While the British government did not take active measures to force France and Spain to abandon their American ventures, they did remind those governments that once the situation in the US sorted itself out, the British would still be bound by their acknowledged support for the Doctrine to support the actions of whatever government(s) might survive the American civil war in reversing any advances France or Spain made in re-establishing or establishing a colonial empire in the Western Hemisphere.

Internal

I have to go. I will continue this later.
 
Again, the US DID NOT BACK DOWN, a compromise was reached. Go back and look at the demands of both sides. Yes, Lincoln released, quietly, the ship and the envoys and disavowed Capt. Wilkes action. But Britain DID NOT GET THE FORMAL APOLOGY OR COMPENSATION they initially demanded. To continually claim that the US backed down misses the essential fact that BOTH SIDES BACKED DOWN from their original demands.
 

Saphroneth

Banned
Again, the US DID NOT BACK DOWN, a compromise was reached. Go back and look at the demands of both sides. Yes, Lincoln released, quietly, the ship and the envoys and disavowed Capt. Wilkes action. But Britain DID NOT GET THE FORMAL APOLOGY OR COMPENSATION they initially demanded. To continually claim that the US backed down misses the essential fact that BOTH SIDES BACKED DOWN from their original demands.
Quietly?

...Quietly?
ED: to explain why I am so incredulous, I should note that - in the first case, there was no ship to release (the Trent was not taken into port for a court to ajudicate the legality of the boarding, this was part of the controversy) and in the second case the news of the release of the envoys made it throughout North America within hours.

Anyway. Have you answered any of our questions?
 
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Continuing my post

<snip>

I have to go. I will continue this later.

Was any of this vast screed in any way useful?

For example, you make the point that the British Empire had tensions with Russia. This is trivially true and widely known. However:
Russia had no logistical path to threaten the Raj directly as any more than a nuisance - they can push a few soldiers across the Central Asian steppe and Afghan mountains, but how many? Enough to cause some chaos on the North-West Frontier? Probably. Enough to cause an Indian Mutiny Mark II, or anything on a similar scale? Doubt it.
The Russian fleet was not sufficient to threaten even second-line RN forces at this time. In 1861 they completed their first ironclad - called Opyt, armed with one (1) 7.7 inch gun. It was a gunboat, in effect.
So by what means can Russia threaten British interests, on a timescale to actually impact an ACW intervention?
 

Saphroneth

Banned
New rules of wartime commerce were set out: (1) privateering was illegal; (2) a neutral flag covered enemy goods except contraband; (3) neutral goods, except contraband, were not liable to capture under an enemy flag; (4) a blockade, to be legal, had to be effective.[16]

This only applied to signatories - the US was not (though it declared that it was going to respect the rules of the Treaty of Paris; interestingly at different points ships with grain or coffee were interdicted. I've not found the list of Union contraband but I suspect they were breaking the rules on this one.)
This is also largely irrelevant.

Once Russia stabilized its domestic situation, it began a process of military modernization including building up the Baltic Fleet and re-arming the Army. Russia was pushing against the outcome and terms of the Treaty, especially where the Balkan territories were concerned and its focus was on the British Empire. The British had to maintain a strong Home Fleet to be prepared to blockade the Skagerrak to prevent the Russian Baltic Fleet from breaking out into open sea and probably making for the Med.

The Russian fleet is not strong enough to defeat the British fleet, not by a long chalk - most of their ships got sunk at Sevastopol. Feel free to show the scale of the Baltic Fleet in question, though, and why it would take all the British reserves; that is, if you're willing to actually answer questions.
You previously asserted there were US squadrons all over the world, but have proven extremely reluctant to name the ships or show why they would be ready to leap to commerce raiding; as it happens the British are the world's postmen at the time of Trent - one reason the boarding of the Royal Mail Ship Trent was universally condemned, including by the Russians - and as such the distinct likelihood is that the US overseas ships (whichever of them there actually are) would find out about the declaration of war from the Royal Navy ship which informed them they were now a prize of war.


As an aside, in trying to find the scale of the Baltic Fleet of the time I've found the Wikipedia article full of half-truths and lies. It states that the Petr Veliky was the first turret battleship and commissioned 1869; in fact the Monarch completed 1869 and the Petr Veliky was not laid down until a year later. By the time Petr Veliky is in commission (1876), the Devastation has been in service for three years.


(The same article also reminded me that when the Russians were having trouble with Polish rebels they pre-positioned their Baltic fleet in NY Harbour, presumably in case they had a war with Britain; the belief that they couldn't break out in the event of war certainly seems to have informed Russian actions.)


which was difficult to achieve as long as Russia was a threat. Which it was to India with its growing presence in Central Asia.

The idea of Russia invading India is frankly bizarre - certainly the idea that it would be considered a more active threat (with several hundred thousand troops in India to protect it) than an active war with the US, as embodied in Trent.

Not only did India absorb British troops, but all the areas that influenced the security of its LoCs with India and the hinterlands beyond India demanded the commitment of British troops.
You realize we've not actually touched the British garrisons in India, right? India at this time has enough commitment of resources to easily defend itself.


3. Trade. The armed forces of the British Empire were extended across the globe, opening markets or protecting them from outside competition and the unwillingness of trade partners to take the short end of the stick in commercial treaties.

Do you perhaps think that the Trent Affair (about the rights of neutrals) might tie into this one?

British troops were committed across the Globe from China to Canada to secure the markets needed to expand and maintain the wealth of the British Empire.
Yes, and the uncommitted troops are the ones we've discussed sending. The British are going to whole-heartedly defend Canada.


4. France: The British Empire enjoyed an uneasy "détente" with Napoleon III's new Empire. Between the 1830s and early 1850s, France was seen as the likely enemy, desiring to re-establish its primacy in European affairs.

1861 is not in the early 1850s, and Napoleon III was more pro-Confederate than the British were. If they're intervening he's going to support them either openly or just by (e.g.) blocking the use of French ports to both sides, thus crippling Union commerce raiders without damaging the British one whit.

Again, the US DID NOT BACK DOWN, a compromise was reached. Go back and look at the demands of both sides. Yes, Lincoln released, quietly, the ship and the envoys and disavowed Capt. Wilkes action. But Britain DID NOT GET THE FORMAL APOLOGY OR COMPENSATION they initially demanded. To continually claim that the US backed down misses the essential fact that BOTH SIDES BACKED DOWN from their original demands.

In their initial demands, the British were attempting to walk a tightrope between being too forceful to allow Lincoln to back down (given US domestic opinion) and being too lenient (and making Lincoln believe there was no war threat).
If we say the British backed down, what we mean is that the US made concessions (disavowal of actions, release of the envoys) and the British considered them sufficient; at no point did the British concede anything, while the US released prisoners for which the country had a month and a half earlier celebrated the capture.

The British did not demand compensation. They asked for "such redress as will satisfy the British government" - that being the release of the prisoners and some form of apology. In fact the apology consisted of the disavowal and the British considered that sufficient to avoid pressing a war.

Certainly Lyons was told:

Should Mr. Seward ask for delay in order that this grave and painful matter should be deliberately considered, you will consent to a delay not exceeding seven days. If, at the end of that time, no answer is given, or if any other answer is given except that of a compliance with the demands of her majesty's government, your lordship is instructed to leave Washington with all the members of your legation and repair immediately to London. If, however, you should be of the opinion that the requirements of her majesty's government are substantially complied with, you may report the facts to her majesty's government for their consideration and remain at your post until you receive further orders

He considered the requirements/demands of HM Government substantially complied with. The public face put on it doesn't matter so much as the actual results.
 
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Saphroneth

Banned
As a useful example of a primary source, here's the TIMES of London on the Trent affair - specifically, on the news of release of the prisoners when it arrived in London.


This is quite long, I'm afraid; suffice to say I have highlighted the important passages.


LONDON, THURSDAY, JANUARY 9, 1862.

Twenty-four hours after the Message from Washington which we reported yesterday the Cabinet of the Federal States' Government broke its silence, and the Old World is no longer at enmity with the New. In the afternoon of the 27th of December Lord Lyons received an announcement from the United States' Government that they consented to deliver to him the four prisoners when and where he pleased. We draw a long breath, and are thankful. The suspense which has endured so long, and has weighed so heavily upon our peaceful avocations, has at last terminated. We are once more able to subside from the bustle of preparation, to withdraw our attention from the mustering of squadrons and the equipment of vast engines of destruction, and to busy ourselves about our own domestic affairs. With a clear conscience and a placid self-respect we can congratulate ourselves that in doing what is right we have done also what was expedient. The straightforward course of honour and of duty always has its compensations, but in this case it has had the unusual reward of a signal and immediate success.

Crotchetmongers and charlatans of every kind have hung upon the footsteps of the men who conducted this great affair, and have attempted to force upon their attention their importunate conceits. The owls of wisdom and the bats of ill augury filled the atmosphere with their shrill cries and dull flappings. But, keeping within the circle of manly sense and international precedent, the trusted chiefs of the British people have succeeded in conjuring away this storm and in bringing back a tranquil sky. Thanks, under Providence, to them, we have come out of this trial with our honour safe and no blood spilt. It is a great victory though it is but an escape from being obliged to conquer. We are but where we were before we were so grossly insulted. We have but curbed for a moment the insolence of a neighbour who took pleasure in continually provoking us, and had permitted himself at last to go beyond the possibility of sufferance. We have done nothing to set up monuments to commemorate; we have only held our own in the great community of nations, and read a necessary lesson to an ill-mannered companion. There have been times in our history - times when we had not the strength we could now put forth - when we should have had no such real joy as we now feel in the hinderance of such a conflict. There are other nations which even at this age of the world would not have thought it consistent with their renown to manifest such patience and long suffering under outrage as we have exhibited. If the same experiment had been tried upon France, we question whether the same forbearance would have been afforded to the aggressor, or the same readiness to receive a tardy and grudging reparation. We have manifested a deliberation and a tranquillity under insult which even we could not have shown towards a people for whom we thought it right to make fewer allowances, or whom we feared more. The Government of the Federal States had done in mere wantonness what no nation of the Old World had ever dared to do. They had invaded the sanctuary which England extends to all political exiles who seek her protection; and to this wound, inflicted on her most sensitive pride, they had added an insult to her maritime flag and a menace to her security in traversing the seas. On all hands it is now admitted that the offence was at once insult and wrong, and it is no great triumph, therefore, that it should have been followed by reparation. If we had had to deal with a friendly and courteous people, we should have had no occasion for preparations of war. If a French or an English captain, while the two nations are upon their present terms were to gratify a crack-brained freak or an insane thirst of notoriety by some piratical outrage against the foreign flag, neither Government would wait to see whether any miserable advantage could be gained by the circumstance. The act would be at once disavowed, and the booty returned, with apologies and compensation. This was the course which, if Federal America had been courteous or even shrewd, Federal America would have pursued. Mr. Seward missed a great opportunity when he failed to act as a European statesman would have acted under similar circumstances. At this moment there is no great sympathy here for either party. The attraction we feel towards a weaker nation invaded by a stronger and a richer nation is repelled by the very general detestation of slavery; and, if Mr. Seward had seized the opportunity for a graceful and a courteous act, we would not answer for how far our countrymen might have been tempted from their rigorous neutrality. It was a gross blunder for the shrewd Minister of a shrewd people to miss the chance of a great advantage only to do the same act at last under circumstances of unavoidable humiliation.


But we are told that a very elaborate Note of protest accompanies this surrender. This voluminous gloss upon a very simple fact is still upon its way from Queenstown. We cannot say we are very impatient for it. We have long since learnt to value Transatlantic statesmen less for what they say than for what they do. It is by deeds, and not by arguments, that the fact we today announce has been brought about. It is not Vattel and Bynkershoek, and Stowell and De Hauteville, who have influenced this controversy, but the promptitude with which we reinforced Admiral Milne's fleet, and poured battalion after battalion into Canada. They loudly proclaim this in America, and Mr. Seward's Note will very probably be found to bear marks of the same sentiment.
We make up our minds in advance, therefore, to accept with unruffled equanimity any quantity of words. Even if there should be muffled threats and expressions of ill will we shall humbly hope to outlive them. The aggressor is making retribution. It never has been held of much consequence whether he does it with a good grace or no. The substantial apology lies in the fact of the surrender of the thing taken. We hope to find in Mr. Seward's Note an expression of regret that he should ever have employed so inconsiderate a commander as Captain Wilkes, or should have been so ill-advised as to persevere in a tacit recognition of his act; but we shall be neither surprised or discomfited if this hope is not fulfilled.

To-day, however, it is enough that we congratulate ourselves that the danger is past, and all present apprehension of war at an end. Let us also especially congratulate ourselves that the crisis found this united nation and her loyal Colonies so well prepared, and that it leaves us so well protected. We have every reason to be satisfied with the position which this country has held throughout. We have never deviated from grave and courteous discussion, and have never descended to retort the wild invectives which came from the other side of the Atlantic. The War Departments have manifested an efficiency which gives us confidence in ourselves, and will give us security from future insult. The Government have acted with a rare courtesy and temper, but have displayed, together with dignified deliberation, firmness, promptitude, and courage. Nor will we refrain from adding, what every one will feel while he reads this news, that the man upon whom the nation instinctively relied while the crisis lasted deserves our warmest gratitude now that the peril is overcome. It is indeed a rare triumph to grace the latter years of a life so happily prolonged, that Lord Palmerston has found, and has used, the opportunity to curb the arrogance of the only people which has in this generation entered systematically upon a course of offence towards England.

While the country may fairly congratulate itself on the happy results which have attended the firm policy of its Government, and may look with satisfaction on this new proof that a bold attitude and straightforward demand form the safest course of action in international difficulties, it would be ungracious to forget how much our cause has been strengthened by the approbation and good will of the other Powers of Europe. To fulfil strictly the duties of peace, but to be ready to assert our rights even by war, is true wisdom, and we may hope that the national policy of late years has been such as to convince all our neighbours that we will neither commit nor suffer aggression. In spite of the wars which have, unhappily, made the last few years a time of anxiety for Europe, it is easy to perceive that there is a steady elevation of public morality and an awakening of national conscience The most irresponsible rulers are anxious to stand well with the world, and every faction uses the language of moderation, and endeavours to clothe its acts with the pretexts of virtue. To the old contempt which would await a pusillanimous nation would now be added a general indignation and a spirit of resistance against any community which should break through the laws devised for the common security. It is to the feeling that England in her demands at Washington was supporting the cause of civilization and insuring the safety of the seas that we owe the unanimity of approval which has been shown during the last few weeks. Not only have foreign nations expressed no jealousy at the display of those enormous armaments which sprang so suddenly into existence at our great ports, but they have plainly told us that nothing less could be expected of England if she cared for her own honour, or was willing to uphold the principles which are a security to all.
Such good will deserves recognition, and will not be forgotten by the British people. It shows that even great power does not provoke envy when it is exerted in a good cause. There are States which, from their history and traditions and policy, are predisposed to take the part of America against ourselves, and which in any quarrel where the right was not plainly on our side might be unconsciously affected by their old prejudices. But in this case our rivals both past and present, together with those States which differ most from ourselves in political principles, have combined to give active encouragement or tacit assent to our proceedings.
Above all, the acknowledgments of Englishmen are due to the French Government. To the position taken by the Emperor from the outset of this discussion the Americans may, perhaps, owe it that they have not plunged into a mad and ruinous warfare. The blindness of their politicians and the ignorance of their people from the beginning of the war have, indeed, been truly wonderful. Either from a fond belief that France would support them in all their schemes, or with a wish to flatter the self-love of the French by contrasting their openness and generosity with the alleged perfidy of England, the Northern Americans have never failed to assort that, whereas we were disposed to take advantage of their dissensions, and had recognized the Confederates in order to break up the Republic, the French had shown a steady friendship for the Northern cause. It has long been evident to the world, and is now proved by the publication of the correspondence, that France and England were acting in unison, or at least on the selfsame principles. But until the affair of the Trent took place the completeness of this accordance was not yet made manifest.

it must now be admitted by the most steady adherents to old maxims of policy that, of the two great States of Western Europe, one can see the other enter into a dispute without an overwhelming desire to thwart and circumvent its rival. When the demands of England were despatched early last month France did not want advisers in the American interest. There were those who saw with jealousy the prospect of a war in which the ships of the United States would be swept from the seas, and the flag of England made more powerful than ever by the destruction of one of the second-rate navies. In the highest society the cause of the North was defended by a Prince in close relationship to the Throne. Besides this there was the usual American colony at Paris, reinforced at the moment by the veteran General Scott, whose military career might be supposed to recommend him favourably to the Court of the Tuileries. It will be doing no injustice to any one if we say that all the efforts of the American party were used to induce the French Government to give some aid or comfort to the Northern States. But the Emperor at once made up his mind. Sharing the conviction of his people that the act of Captain Wilkes was an outrage on the Law of Nations, he caused to be conveyed to General Scott and the Americans such an expression of his opinion that the General at once set off for America, where he happily arrived soon enough to give his advice to the vacillating Cabinet. Not content with this indirect aid to the cause of peace, the Imperial Government addressed to its Minister at Washington the remarkable despatch dated the 3d of December, pointing out in the clearest manner the violation of law committed by Captain Wilkes, and warning the President that not only could the Federal Government expect no countenance from France, but that France would be obliged to give her full moral support to the cause in which England was arming.

The good effect of this communication cannot be doubted, nor are we inclined to under-estimate its importance in causing the Cabinet of Mr. Lincoln to yield to our just claims. It is not as a military ally that we have counted on the help of France in this matter. We are able, as the last six weeks have proved, to maintain our own rights and vindicate our own honour, without the assistance of any other Power. The Federal Government knew that if it refused reparation the consequences would have been terrible to its people, and completely decisive of the war in which it is now engaged. Had France never rejected the advances of the American party; had M. Thouvennel's Note never been despatched, the surrender of the four prisoners would, in all probability, have taken place. But perhaps this would not have been done with the same readiness, or until further steps had been taken by England to assert her rights, which would have embittered the animosity and humiliated the pride of a people whom she was unwilling to regard as enemies. By his good feeling and sound judgment the French Emperor has aided in bringing this dispute to a close. He has convinced the Americans from the first that they had no chance of engaging the sympathy or the ambition of any European nation on their side, and that hereditary rivalries do not keep their ground against the dictates of public morality and the opinion of the community of nations in which France holds so high a place. Thus, not only have the Northern States escaped the losses and the humiliations a war with England must have entailed upon them, but they learn a lesson which will be useful to them during the rest of their struggle with their alienated fellow-citizens. They now know that neither the desire to embarrass a rival State, nor the remembrance of former passages in their history, will seduce European nations into sympathy with an unjust cause, or into endeavours to prop up a failing power. If the chill of adversity cools the heated imagination which sees nothing in war but a succession of triumphs, the lesson will have been worth the learning.

(Section on Portsmouth war preparations excised)

LONDON, FRIDAY, JANUARY 10, 1862.

There is little mystery in modern diplomacy. The bees work under glass hives, and seem to find pleasure and advantage in the transparency of their toil. There is not a step in the proceedings which have just led to the re-establishment of amicable relations with Federal America which is not as well known to the most humble member of the British public as it is to a Cabinet Minister. Everything that is mysterious is mysterious alike to all on this side of the Atlantic. By what means Captain Wilkes came to commit his, now disavowed, act of violence on the high seas none of us can tell; nor how it came to be adopted by the American Admiralty, or countenanced by the close custody of the captives. It is enough for us to know that the responsibility of the act was repudiated on the 28th of last month by the Federal Government. Nor is it possible to surmise why the American Cabinet were so long in stating their convictions that the act was indefensible, and that the men must be given up, seeing that by this long concealment of their convictions they destroyed their own financial credit in Europe, and put us to the expense of rendering Canada secure against any present or future contingency. Neither is it plain to us why the news of the surrender of the prisoners should have been unknown in Washington when it was on its way to England, or why the Chairman of the Committee on Foreign Relations, should have been allowed to thunder away in the Senate against the supposition that England had demanded reparation, at the moment when Mr. Seward was elaborately proving that he had no possible course before him but to surrender the prisoners. All this secrecy is explained by several hypotheses. Mr. Seward's friends explain it by a reason very favourable to that gentleman's prudence and judgment, and say that, notwithstanding he had that clear course before him which he has mapped out in an unmeasurable despatch, yet he had also a patriotic President before him, who would not yield until many of the advantages of yielding had been lost, and a patriotic populace behind him, who would have rendered it difficult for him to yield if they had been let into the secret.

What mystery there has been, however, has been found in the Republican Government, and, what is a still stranger lesson, the mystery has all been used in favour of peace. The proceedings of the British Government have been throughout carried on in the broad torchlight of the public Press. The act itself was no sooner announced than the Law Officers were set to work upon it, and their decision was made public. The substance of the despatch demanding reparation was known throughout the kingdom before it had left these shores. It was tracked on its way by the public eye; we knew when it would arrive, and with what deliberate delays its tenour was to be communicated before it was actually delivered. We also knew that Mr. Sewards attitude towards Lord Lyons had been for some time previous so threatening that our Minister had avoided as much as possible all interviews with him, lest he should find himself the subject of some affront which his duty would compel him to resent. Therefore it was that the Government telegrams not only announced from day to day the proceedings of Lord Lyons, but also noted the lapse of time after the demand had been delivered, and kept us informed of the unpromising silence of the American Cabinet. During the whole course of the crisis the British nation have been admitted, as it were, to the Cabinet, and every step has been taken with the full acclaim of the country, Now that it is ended, we have nothing to look back upon with regret. We believe we may say that Mr. Seward himself has expressed to Lord Lyons his sense of the manner in which this very delicate negotiation has been conducted, and has admitted that hi very difficult task was greatly facilitated by the extreme courtesy of the British Minister and his Government, and by the considerate manner in which the question had been presented to him for solution. All this we looked on upon as it passed, and, looking on, we all approved. Perhaps we may think that, if Mr. Seward's course had been equally frank and public from the first, his people, like our people, would have seen in what has now happened the natural sequence to the transaction. If he also had published the opinions of his Law Officers, he might have saved Boston from so stultifying itself, and New York from such sad exhibitions; he might have prevented his countrymen from making a hero of the author of this vapouring outrage, and saved them from the sting of sharing his humiliation. If, as our Correspondent anticipates, Mr. Seward has now to suffer for doing right, he will owe much of the unpopularity he has to endure to his own procrastination.

Yet, if the diplomatic note which he delivered to Lord Lyons when announcing his readiness to surrender the prisoners is to receive anything more than a credence of courtesy, there never could have been a moment when he had any doubt as to the entire illegality of the proceeding of his officer. With a verbosity never equalled even in diplomacy, and with an inconsequential vagueness never surpassed even in Congressional debate, Mr. Seward in this long document wanders through the history of all past transactions. Inasmuch, however, as he concludes that, notwithstanding all he has so lengthily and so vaguely premised, he can come to no other conclusion upon the circumstances of the present case than that the act was indefensible, and that the prisoners must be restored, the obvious course was to accept the fact of the reparation and to disregard the comment. Such, we believe, has been the course adopted by our Government. A Cabinet Council was held yesterday, at which this very elaborate document was considered. An answer will, we understand, be returned, expressing the gratification of Her Majesty's Government at the disavowal of the act of Captain Wilkes, accepting the satisfaction rendered, and assuming that the precedent in the case of the Trent will rule the more recent case of the seizure made by the captain of the Santiago de Cuba on board the British schooner Eugenia Smith. As to the general discussion of the law of neutrals, into which Mr. Seward enters at so much length, the Government will decline any answer until they have had an opportunity of submitting the whole Note to their Law Officers. There are propositions laid down in this Note which are not at all admissible, and it is of the highest importance that we should not suddenly bind ourselves to the abolition of belligerent rights which may be to ourselves at some future time of vital importance; nor that we should, on the other hand, admit the right of any foreign State to carry our Mail Packets into their ports and submit them to the arbitrament of their Prize Courts. After the delivery of the prisoners all these points may be very properly raised, and can be conveniently discussed; but it is expedient to separate this discussion entirely from the settlement of the misunderstanding which has so nearly precipitated us into war. Whenever the proper time comes we shall probably insist, with all authority in our favour, that a belligerent has a right to communicate with a neutral Power in a neutral ship; and that it is a presumption that in such communication there is nothing inconsistent with the character of the neutral nation, and therefore nothing injurious to the other belligerent.

Let the business of the day, however, suffice for the day. The quarrel being over, we are now rather better friends than we were before it commenced. Mr. Seward and Lord Lyons know each other better than they did some time ago, and are more conversant with each other's views and instructions. The tone of the American papers has, we are glad to remark, become very much more reasonable. Perhaps, in the face of the declarations made to our Correspondent, that a Northerner hates England twice as much as he loves the Union, and that America would give a million of men for a war with us, it might be imprudent to offer a temptation to strife by decreasing our force in Canada. We may hope, however, that whatever irritation now exists may gradually subside, and that we may experience no more of those fractious and splenetic annoyances which engender ill feeling and lead at least to great perils.

To all intents and purposes, except the actual shedding of blood, we have been for the last month at war with the Northern States of America. We have been spending money at a war rate; we have been moving troops, completing and equipping ships, preparing arms and ammunition, employing our minds and hardening our hearts, as if for impending and inevitable war. Till the moment of collision, till the pickets are driven in, the guns fired, and the men begin to drop, the greatest war is little else than what we have been waging since the capture of the Confederate Commissioners. In the United States two immense armies are collected and brought face to face, where they have stood for months, and all with as little loss of life as we have suffered by our military and naval preparations. Had the Australasian foundered in the snow-storm off the Island of Anticosti and been lost with all souls on board, our war would have cost nearly as many lives as the war hitherto has cost either side in the United States. It is war to be engaged as if for war, to be compassing and contriving the destruction of our foes and the protection of our friends, to be counting upon honours and preparing for losses, and to be occupied in the subject to the exclusion of our ordinary thoughts and cares. Already they talk of our having spent two millions, but when the bills are all in, and the works denoted in the daily columns of our Naval and Military Intelligence all completed and paid for, we shall be prepared for twice the sum. Ships cannot be finished in a hurry with men as thick as they can stand, regiments cannot be brought up to the full complement and carried comfortably across the Atlantic and back, without incalculable cost, and nobody dreams that his Income-tax will be less next year. This, then, is war. It is war, too, when the Christmas circle is broken up by the absence of the best man on a distant errand of destruction across a stormy ocean, off a dangerous coast, or in forests and snow-tracks. It is war in a form to strike all eyes, when the hunt, the dance, the theatricals miss the best riders, the best partners, the only manager, and any post may bring the news of another use, and perhaps another doom, for noble qualities. So virtually we have been at war all this Christmas time, and now suddenly Peace is proclaimed, and we are at war no longer. We have to suspend operations, to bring home our forces, and do everything as if after a war of two or of thirty years. How, then, do we, and how do the British people, take an announcement which heretofore has been celebrated with processions and proclamations, with bonfires and bell-ringing, with feasts and holydays, with illuminations and fireworks? We do not suppose that the national delight will be so ecstatic and unqualified as when we had been supping full of Crimean or Indian horrors for two years, and knew by recent experience what war really was. The most rational among us had speculated on the probable length of the war and its other contingencies; but that was only a speculation, and the gloomiest speculation can never strike the mind like the terrible fact. When we have imagined a thousand horrors, and come to understand that we could not escape them all, or most of them, one of them actually comes to pass surpassing them all. We have only to suppose a blockading squadron driven on shore and compelled to surrender, a military force cut off and frozen to death or submission, or some unaccountable reverse like the tale of Bull's Run, and we shall see at once that England is not likely to have the same hankering or Peace now as if she had been at actual war for a year or two. They who can look forward into the black future, and who have friends or incomes to be decimated, will rejoice with a rational and patriotic rejoicing. But it is no great injustice to the popular mind of this country to suspect it of a shade of disappointment. The public have made up their mind to the game of war; they have given up their other engagements; they have paid their money, and taken their places, when the manager comes before the curtain and tells them that the principal actor has sent his apologies and cannot attend. It is possible to be disappointed even of misery or disaster. We have heard of a man who had so persuaded himself he had a cancer that he felt annoyed to find himself mistaken. When you have screwed up your courage, it is provoking to find it uncalled for. Litigants with ruin staring them in the face have felt themselves hurt by a timely compromise or concession. The Americans themselves assure us that the popular feeling on their side is quite as much a mad desire to exchange blows with the mother country, for any or no reason, as a sense of wrong; and one cousin is too like the other not to be liable to a purely bellicose and combative excitement.
The knowledge on the part of our statesmen that the British people are only too ready and too able to fight for any cause, and to defend their interest and their honour whenever at stake, has, no doubt, contributed to our patient and forbearing policy hitherto with the United States. As regards this froward child, we have always felt a difficulty in setting our interest and our honour itself against those of our own offspring, and have relied on our power of defending them whenever it should be absolutely required. In a word, we could always wait for the hour when this painful necessity should arrive, and meanwhile we could comfort and assure ourselves with a merited confidence in our justice and safety. We felt that a war between two States of the same origin and language, and in many respects so similar and so connected, would be a public scandal, for which any amount of triumph would hardly compensate. Thus, the higher feeling of the parent, the brother, and the gentleman have been permitted to step in between the decidedly combative qualities too apparent on both sides of the Atlantic. Our statesmen have held back the people, knowing well that this people would be able to defend and avenge itself.

But our recent preparation has not been thrown away. Nine-tenths of the operations of real war are without any immediate and actual result. The demonstration which costs immense efforts, marching, countermarching, conveyance and abandonment of stores, constructions and destructions, and even the loss of many lives, may completely answer its intended purpose of deceiving or dividing a foe without in the least answering its apparent end. We have set all our naval and military forces in full current for Canada, and the current is already flowing thither at a much quicker rate than we can recall. That such a current should be suddenly arrested and brought back without a blow being struck may seem to realize an utter nullity. If, however, it has assured and will assure the Americans of our sincerity and earnestness, it has answered its purpose as much as if it had encountered the full tide of American war, and written its loss, not only on the mind, but on the bloody battle-field and the wreck-strewn wave. Less decision, a less rapid movement of soldiers, a less hurried equipment of vessels, might have been interpreted into a makebelieve, and Lord Palmerston might have been complimented on an effective "demonstration". As it is, the Americans will hear all that has been done. They may be assured that it has not been a little war they have escaped, even though its actual course has been bloodless and short.

In earnestness, in determination, and in magnitude of purpose, it would have been a very great war. It has, too, like an inspection or a review, or rather like a night alarm for practice against surprises, left much instruction. Prepared as we are, we cannot but find it a difficult task to concentrate and direct all our resources at a day's warning to any one point. Mistakes must be made or discovered. Ships, arms, and even men, are found not so readily as they seemed. The capacities of establishments are probed, as also the vigour and skill of officials. It has been a great field-day, such as nothing less than an Empire in danger can give us. All England has turned out to resist an outrage and vindicate her flag. Fortunately for all, the assailant has been wise in time, and England returns to her quarters with the feeling that her preparations have not been thrown away.

Fr 10 January 1862
THE CIVIL WAR IN AMERICA.
(from our special correspondent.)
WASHINGTON, Dec. 27.
THE SURRENDER OF MASON AND SLIDELL.


Omitting all matters of detail till next post, I hasten to announce that the Government of the United States has acceded to the demand of Great Britain and has consented to surrender Mr. Mason, Mr. Slidell, and their secretaries.
This morning Mr. Seward sent to Lord Lyons a request that his Lordship would call at the State Department, and in the interview which took place Mr. Seward handed the British Minister an exceedingly voluminous note, which will no doubt see the light some day in England, and informed him at the same time that the captives were at his Lordship's disposal. Let us take this act as the expression of the conviction in the minds of the American Government that they were wrong in retaining their prisoners, and that the seizure was an outrage, nor let us, till we know the nature of the despatch, attribute any other motives to them than the desire to do what is right. The effect in this country, when it is known, will be exceedingly great, for such a dish of humble pie cannot be taken into stomachs which have been disordered by cocktail talking without a great deal of nausea. Do not imagine that the real intelligence and worth of the people will disapprove the act. The men I allude to are the writers in the "sensation" press, and the bunkum orators, as well as the more violent Abolitionists, who by insulting menaces and intemperate pledges have bound themselves to oppose the concession, no matter how just it might prove to be. Doubtless, Mr. Seward in the elaborate despatch he has written will seek to show that Great Britain has laid down some new principle in this transaction, and in swelling periods will endeavour to demonstrate that by yielding the prisoners the United States has gained some great point for herself and the world in general from Great Britain, which can never again take political offenders from neutral ships. Let it be so. The case is memorable enough and clear enough to serve as a precedent. No one can doubt but that the relations of both countries would have been much more satisfactory if the Government of Washington had restored the prisoners as soon as it heard of the capture, and if all the irritating writing and speaking to which we have been treated here, and the expense, anxiety, and sense of indignity to which we were exposed in Great Britain, had been obviated. I fear that the wrath to come will be greater than anything yet experienced by us, and that a terrible future is in store for Great Britain, at the indefinite time when so many great things arc to come to pass. The Government here, which has thus far got over its external dangers, will now have to face a tremendous ordeal. The sense of justice or right or even necessity cannot prevail over the cherished love of doing what they like among the masses. The Union can get more than half a million of men to fight for her, at a considerable expense, it is true, but moved in the main, let us admit, by love for the Union; but she could, I am assured, raise a million to fight against England. That is, the hate of Great Britain is at least twice as strong as the love of the Union among many millions of Americans. They will he disappointed this time. If Mason and Slidell he surrendered without any extravagant threats in the press, or without any indignation meetings, we may hope that friendly relations will be preserved for years to come, as it will be a token that in a crisis the sound sense, patriotism, and desire to do what is demanded by justice and right predominate in the United States over the violence of popular passion. Let us stand by and see if it will be so, and let us be thankful meantime that we are spared the war which would have been forced on us in vindication of our honour had the Government here been deaf to the voice of reason. The secret of the Government has been well kept. Mr. Seward must have enjoyed the pleasure of tantalizing Mr. Sumner and the other Senators and politicians who thought to worm out his secret, for he is fond of a joke, and could not have been indifferent to the pangs of the Chairman of the Committee of Foreign Relations of the Senate, who to the last persisted in believing or in stating that Great Britain had made no absolute demand which did not admit of either a deliciously long correspondence, or a delicate negotiation by mediator or arbitrator. Some of my good friends of the sword who have been very fierce and belligerent will, no doubt, be difficult to appease. Men like M'Dowell, Halleck, and General Scott, who appreciated the gravity of the question, have spoken of it with moderation. Some of them, indeed, have from the first maintained that the seizure was unjustifiable. As to the officers of the navy, I must do them the justice to say that those I have met were from the first willing to surrender the Southern Commissioners, and that more than one expressed the strongest disapprobation of Captain Wilkes's act, notwithstanding that the Secretary of the Navy had highly lauded him. Mr. Welles is of the same opinion still, and submits to "force majeure."

Mr. Fox, the able and experienced Assistant-Secretary of the Navy - a naval officer who has seen the world, and has raised his head above the clouds and mists which dim the vision of the indigenous American who has never stirred out of his own country - differed from his chief. There were people who went about talking and writing in the most patriotic manner about never surrendering till death or afterwards, and seeing every city in a blaze before they would surrender the prisoners. These people will now most probably go about using the same language in another tense, and declaring that it would have been better to have done all sorts of things than to have performed an act of justice, and have averted much bloodshed and misery to two kindred nations, while they at a blow destroyed the possibility of success in the contest on which they had set their hearts. The interval which has elapsed since Monday, when Lord Lyons presented his note, of which he had at several previous interviews discussed the nature with Mr. Seward, was not unreasonably long, though it has given birth to a despatch which might not be characterized in the same way, and the press and the politicians were alike in the dark as to the demands of Great Britain, and the view taken of them by the Government. It was only the pressure of circumstances, and the convincing arguments founded on the state of the navy and the present position of affairs, which prevailed over the indisposition of the highest persons in the State to yield the prisoners. So late as yesterday a violent speech was made in the Senate by Mr. Hale, in introducing a resolution for the correspondence arising out of the Trent affair...
Fr 10 January 1862
LATEST INTELLIGENCE.
[A portion of the following appeared in our Second Edition of yesterday:-]
Reuter's telegram's.
AMERICA.
DIPLOMATIC CORRESPONDENCE ON THE TRENT AFFAIR.

LONDONDERRY, Jan. 9.

The Canadian steamer Jura, which arrived here this morning, was detained at Portland six hours for Lord Lyons' despatches, which she takes to Liverpool direct.

NEW YORK, Dec. 28.

The diplomatic correspondence in reference to the case of Messrs. Mason and Slidell has been published.
It commences with a despatch from Mr. Seward to Mr. Adams in London, declaring that Captain Wilkes acted without instructions, and hoping that the British Government would consider the subject in a friendly temper. Mr. Seward says also that the British Government may expect the best disposition on the part of the Federal Government.
The next despatch is from Earl Russell to Lord Lyons, stating the outrage on the British flag, and hoping that the act was committed without instructions from the Federal Government, as that Government must be aware that Great Britain cannot allow such an affront to pass without reparation. Earl Russell expresses a hope that the Federal Government will offer suitable redress by giving up the four prisoners to Lord Lyons. Mr. Seward, who was furnished with a copy of Earl Russell's despatch, replied that the English Government rightly conjectured that the act was without the authority or knowledge of the Federal Government. He trusts that England will see that the Federal Government neither practised nor approved any deliberate wrong in the transaction, and declares that Great Britain has a right to demand the same reparation as the United States would expect from any friendly nation in a similar case. Mr. Seward says he is aware that he argues on the British side of the case, but in doing so he is only defending American principles. He quotes the instructions from Mr. Madison, Secretary of State in 1804, to Mr. Monroe, Minister to England, and says:-
"If I decide this case in favour of my own Government I must disallow its most cherished principles, and for ever abandon its most cherished policy; but the country cannot afford such a sacrifice. The Government cannot deny the justice of England's claim."
Mr. Seward, in conclusion, states that the four prisoners are at the disposal of Lord Lyons, and asks his Lordship to indicate a time and place for receiving them.
Lord Lyons, in his reply, says he will forward Mr. Seward's communication to the British Government, and will confer personally with him in regard to the reception of the four gentlemen.
The note from M. Thouvenel to the French Minister on the Trent affair is included in the correspondence.


If there is a common theme here, it is that the release of the prisoners is seen as the important point and that the forthright display of willingness to fight is why there was no actual war.

In later articles from the Times, it's noted with some amusement that Seward's disavowal of the actions of a single naval officer doesn't really explain why the Federal government kept Mason and Sliddell prisoner for seven weeks - and that it's quite funny that it took him seven weeks to realize they were "comparatively unimportant". In short, Seward's note is seen as a thin attempt at saving face necessary for the domestic crowd.

The underlined passage is especially interesting as it's essentially the whole of the Trent War discussions from a hundred and fifty years later condensed into about one long paragraph.

The whole episode of the capture of the Trent lies now before us, and we may not unprofitably review the main features of this very remarkable transaction. We need not trouble ourselves with the law, for, although the violence of the proceeding led us to suppose that it could not be wholly unauthorized by some distant precedent, the result has been that our right has been conceded in as full and ample a manner as it was possible for us to desire. But the causes which led to the seizure and which have protracted the inquiry into its validity up to the present moment are well worth investigation. How came it, then, that Commodore Wilkes should, at a moment when his country was overwhelmed with the solicitudes and difficulties of a Civil War more than sufficient to occupy all its energies, venture upon an enterprise the direct effect of which would necessarily be to multiply those difficulties by creating a conflict with a Power many times more formidable than that with which America was already engaged? The answer is very plain. The Commodore knew little and cared less for the Law of Nations, of which he had just enough learning to enable him thoroughly to misquote it. But he knew very well something much better than the Law of Nations, and that was the humour of his countrymen. He thought it possible he might be disavowed or even cashiered, but he also knew that he would become a hero. In some countries heroism cannot be attained without a very severe sacrifice of personal convenience and some danger of personal injury. But the United States are content to set one kind of courage against another, and, provided a man is bold enough to despise the laws of civilized life, will not insist on the painful condition that he should incur danger to life or limb. Commodore Wilkes speculated on this well-known tendency of the popular mind, and he speculated justly. Had he led a forlorn hope, or headed the charge which decided the fate of a pitched battle, he could not have received a more brilliant or flattering reception. True, his act had no valour in it, for it was performed against an unarmed enemy; it had no wisdom, for it was fraught with the most disastrous consequences; but it was lawless and defiant, and as such dear to the feelings of the nation that he served. It has ever, been the nature of Democracy rather to find the law in its own will than to subordinate that will to the law, and had not this feeling been notorious the outrage on the Trent would never have been committed.

The next step in the affair was that the persons so seized were accepted by the American Government and consigned to a prison, where they were treated, as we are informed, with the greatest rigour and harshness. Any other Government but that of America would have considered that the receiving of prisoners under these circumstances amounted to a distinct undertaking on their part to identify themselves with Commodore Wilkes, and to adopt his act as their own. It is so with the affairs of common life. The man who takes the profit of a transaction is not allowed to blow hot and cold -to assert that he never authorized what has been done. If the American Government were willing to accept the present offered them by Commodore Wilkes, they should also have been willing to take upon themselves whatever risk was implied by that acceptance. If he was wrong, they should not have received the men from him; if he was right, they should not have disavowed him. But here, again, we have another specimen of the propensities of a Government that relies on mere popularity. It lives on the breath of the moment, and cannot afford to do what the people would approve to-morrow because the people would disapprove it to-day. As soon as it was known that Slidell and Mason were captured one cry of delight resounded from one end of the Northern States to the other. The ringleaders in so many intrigues, the arch-originators of so many conspiracies, were now in their power, and ill betide those who would abstract them from their vengeance. The felon's cell, the traitor's death, were too good for them, and, as for restoring them to England, the thought was black with dishonour and foul with retreat. No matter how they were taken; the law was on the side of the Union, or, if it were not, England dare not assert her rights. Had not the Northern States six hundred thousand men under arms? Was not Canada within two or three days' railroad from the Federal Camp, and could they not spare a sufficient force for the invasion? Would they not build fleets to launch on the Lakes and cover the ocean with innumerable privateers, bearing wealth to those who equipped them and destruction to British commerce? England dare not, could not, must not, would not, ask for reparation for the injury. She might be starved for want of corn, revolutionized by the invasion of Ireland, or disposed of in any one of half-a-dozen ways of attack. But if she should demand reparation she would be only too happy to protract the case into endless negotiation. She knew too well that France would be certain to take part against her, that there was a strong American party in England, and a still stronger one in Ireland, and that in seeking a contest with America she only sought her own destruction. Next came the information that reparation had actually been demanded; and, just as the newspapers had succeeded in proving to their own entire satisfaction that England could by no possibility adhere to the demand for the giving up of the men, the men, after seven weeks' captivity, were given up, and America was left to put the best construction she could on so many confident assertions so signally falsified, on so many valiant resolutions so precipitately abandoned.

When all these things are considered, there can be no more interesting study than Mr. Seward's Despatch. There has been an "inadvertency by a naval officer." That is all. The Government of the United States is in no way implicated in it, although at the time of writing the Despatch the prisoners had been seven weeks in its custody. "If I decide this case in favour of my own Government, I must disallow its most cherished principles, and reverse and for ever abandon its essential policy." Such declarations are, to be sure, inconsistent with the course of action which was adopted up to the time of the peremptory demand by England. But, at any rate, they have, one would think, the advantage that they hold out to us a better prospect for the future. This hope, however, is immediately dashed to the ground, for we are told in the same breath that the claim is just, but that if the safety of the Union required the detention of the captured prisoners it would be the right and duty of the Government to detain them; - that is, it would be the right and duty of the Government to do towards a foreign State that which they themselves considered to be unjust. We have, then, fair notice that all who deal with the United States must guide themselves, not by the Law of Nations, but by what the United States may consider expedient at the time; and this, of course, depends upon their ability to resist. Thus, it was expedient to put these Commissioners in prison on November 10 and it was expedient to release them, when it was found that war would be the consequence of detaining them, on December 27. Mr. Seward, however, concludes by saying that the prisoners are given up, not because England demands them peremptorily, but because they are not worth keeping; because "the effectual check and waning proportions of the existing insurrection, as well as the comparative unimportance of the captured persons themselves, when dispassionately weighed," &c.; and this pretext is put forth by a Government which denounced these men to Congress as leading conspirators, which gave its official thanks to Captain Wilkes on account of the importance of the capture, and took seven weeks to discover that its prisoners were "comparatively unimportant!"

We doubt if any nation ever committed blunders so palpable and so enormous. If they had disavowed the seizure and given up the men at once, the American Government would have done much towards placing its flag under the protection of right and justice. But they kept the men till they had done for the South services far greater than they could possibly have performed had they been left at liberty. The men, who in all probability would not have been able to effect anything by their advocacy with the Governments of England and France, became, when placed in prison, the most persuasive of missionaries, and made converts to Southern principles by mixing them up with the doctrines recognized by all nations. Messrs. Slidell and Mason could not, had they succeeded to the utmost of their desire, have effected more than they did from their dungeon. And all these misfortunes and disgraces have occurred simply because the American Government is not able to rule of itself, but must seek its direction, not from the wise and prudent, but from the ignorant and violent. It was not able either to persist with dignity or to yield with courtesy, and it has therefore brought upon itself all the discredit without the reward of lawlessness, and all the humiliation without the grace of submission.


The Times also published the full diplomatic correspondance - there's no mention of compensation or restitution, except in that the release of the prisoners qualifies as such after the fact.

.
"Her Majesty's Government having carefully taken into their consideration the liberation of the prisoners, the delivery of them into your hands, and the explanations to which I have just referred, have arrived at the conclusion that they constitute the reparation which Her Majesty and the British nation had a right to expect.
(Russell.)
 
Britain DID NOT GET THE FORMAL APOLOGY OR COMPENSATION they initially demanded. To continually claim that the US backed down misses the essential fact that BOTH SIDES BACKED DOWN from their original demands.
'In answer to inquiries from me, Mr Seward said that of course he understood Her Majesty's Government to leave it open to the Government of Washington to present the case in the form which would be most acceptable to the American people; but that the note was intended to be, and was, a compliance with the terms proposed by Her Majesty's Government.' (Lord Lyons to Earl Russell, 9 January 1862)

Like we said, they backed down.

Absorbing India into the Empire saw the Empire inherit a number of security issues on the borders of the Indian states that comprised the new British Raj... And the "Great Game" began, as Russia, expanding into Central Asia, coming up against the mountains of Afghanistan.
First Anglo-Afghan War: 1838
Abolition of the East India Company and the start of the British Raj: 1858

The primary and soon, secondary, line of communication was secured by British occupation and retention of the Dutch colony in South Africa and its expansion with British settlers and merchants. This drove a need for British bases in western Africa, which then pushed out British markets that then dragged the British militarily and politically in securing the new markets and the security of the LoC by conquering people like the Ashanti.
British conquest of Cape Colony: 1795-1802, 1806 onwards
British colony in Sierra Leone: 1787
British conquest of the Ashanti: 1902

the Volunteer movement that reinvigorated parts of the militia system
The Volunteer system is completely separate from the militia system. I don't know why you're still confused about this whole thing.

The US envoys were able to block some of the arms and other purchases made by the insurrectionists... One coup was buying the current and future production of the factories producing the government model of the 1853 rifle and rifle-musket, leaving the insurrectionists to buy from independent gun-makers that ensured that that parts would not be interchangeable.
'Watson's letter described the kinds of arms Hartley was to buy; grouping them into five classes in descending order of merit:
1. The machine-made English Enfield, with interchangeable parts, manufactured only by the London Armoury Company.
2. The hand-made English Enfield.' (William B. Edwards, Civil War Guns, p.72)

'When Schuyler got to London on August 12, 1861, he scouted around and spent the week fruitlessly discovering that Rebel buyer Caleb Huse, and other agents, including those from the Northern states, had tied up the London and Birmingham factories. The London Armoury, the only private machine-made Enfield source, which a short time before had refused to do business with Southern agent Caleb Huse, now turned the cold shoulder to Yankee Schuyler; they were all booked up by the Confederacy.' (William B. Edwards, Civil War Guns, p.67)

'Within a few days I succeeded in closing a contract under which I was to have all the arms the Company could manufacture, after filling a comparatively small order for the United States agent. This Company, during the remainder of the war, turned all its output of arms over to me for the Confederate army.' (Caleb Huse, The Supplies for the Confederate Army: How they were obtained in Europe and how paid for)

Internal

I have to go. I will continue this later.
Five quid says that this is seven paragraphs on Irish nationalism, the Indian Rebellion and the Patriotes, and one short paragraph on Northern dissent.

If anybody wants to believe the rest of the analysis, when half of it is obviously copy-pasted from Wikipedia and the other half is based on fundamental misunderstandings like the above, be my guest. I'm still waiting for an acknowledgement of (and response to) the issues we've already highlighted: as I've said, this is a discussion forum not a blog.
 
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Saphroneth

Banned
They especially worked on the anti-slavery politics in Britain and France.
No they didn't - not early on, at least.


"you will not consent to draw into debate before the British government any opposing moral principles, which may be supposed to lie at the foundation of the controversy between those (the Confederate) States and the Federal Union" (Seward to Adams, 10 April 1861)
"refrain from any observation whatever concerning the morality or immorality, the economy or the waste, the social or the unsocial aspects of slavery... the condition of slavery in the United States will remain the same whether [the revolution] shall succeed or fail" (Seward to Dayton, 22 April 1861)

The ban is not lifted until May 1862, and when it is it's to claim that any attempt to intervene would result in the Union starting a servile war in the South - hardly going to help British public perception.

The British public were certainly anti-slavery - they just felt that actions mattered more than rhetoric, and saw the Emancipation Proclamation as small beer (while the Greeley letter deeply concerned them).
 
Again, the US DID NOT BACK DOWN, a compromise was reached.
Just to further dispel this myth that the deal was ultimately a compromise, and to demonstrate that the Times isn't exaggerating in its comments on American public opinion, let's look at the attitudes of some elected representatives. Note that it is the surrender of Mason and Slidell which is the only important factor.

‘Mr Vallandigham [Ohio, Democrat] introduced the following resolution… “That it is the duty of the President to now firmly maintain the stand thus taken, approving and adopting the act of Captain Wilkes, in spite of any menace or demand of the British government”… The time has now come for the firmness of this House to be practically tested, and I hope there will be no shrinking… We have heard the first growl of the British lion, and now let us see who will cower’ (16 December, 1861)

Samuel S. Cox (Ohio, Democrat): ‘we have never, in the history of diplomacy, had a clearer case of indisputable right on the high seas… The other day, at the beginning of this session, the gentleman from Illinois [Mr Lovejoy] introduced his resolution approving the conduct of Captain Wilkes. I voted for that resolution… This matter came again before the House yesterday, and lo! In the face of the morning news which echoed with the roar of the English lion, there seemed to be a different spirit on the other side of the House!’ (17 December 1861)

John P. Hale (New Hampshire, Republican): ‘I believe the Cabinet… have had under consideration… the surrender, on the demand of Great Britain, of the persons of Messrs. Slidell and Mason. To my mind, a more fatal act could not mark the history of this country- an act that would surrender at once to the arbitrary demand of Great Britain all that was won in the Revolution, reduce us to the position of a second-rate Power, and make us the vassal of Great Britain… not a man can be found who is in favour of this surrender; for it would humiliate us in the eyes of the world, irritate our own people, and subject us to their indignant scorn… We have heard, Mr President, some fears expressed that Louis Napoleon is taking sides with England… I believe that if Louis Napoleon harbours one single sentiment… it is to have a fair field to retrieve the disastrous issue of Waterloo. And besides, sir, all over this country, throughout Canada, and in Ireland, there are hundreds of thousands and hundreds of thousands [sic] of true-hearted Irishmen who have long prayed for an opportunity to retaliate upon England. (26 December 1861)

Benjamin Thomas (Massachusetts, Unionist): ‘England has done to us a great wrong in availing herself of our moment weakness to make a demand which, accompanied as it was by “the pomp and circumstance of war,” was insolent in spirit and thoroughly unjust… She is treasuring up to herself wrath against the day of wrath… we shall be girding ourselves to strike the blow of righteous retribution.’ (7 January 1861 ED: 1862)

Owen Lovejoy (Illinois, Republican): ‘it is enough for us, in all conscience, to have been disgraced by the British nation, without now appropriating $35,000 to pay the expenses of those who have been instrumental in that dishonour, to let them go in state to the British court… inasmuch as we have submitted to be thus dishonoured by Great Britain, I think the least we can do is to acknowledge it, and to stay at home till the time comes that we can whip that nation. Then I will be willing to go and appear at their world’s exhibition… Every time this Trent affair comes up… I am made to renew the horrible grief which I suffered when the news of the surrender of Mason and Slidell came. I acknowledge it, I literally wept tears of vexation… I have never shared in the traditional hostility of many of my countrymen against England. But I now here publicly avow and record my inextinguishable hatred of that Government. I mean to cherish it while I live, and to bequeath it as a legacy to my children when I die… I trust in God that the time is not far distant when we shall have suppressed this rebellion, and be prepared to avenge and wipe out this insult that we have received. We will then stir up Ireland; we will appeal to the Chartists of England; we will go to the old French habitans of Canada; we will join hands with France and Russia to take away the eastern possessions of that proud empire, and will darken every jewel that glitters in her diadem.’ (14 January 1862)

If you think that this was a compromise, then both sides will have been equally disappointed. As such, it should be possible to find thirteen MPs (50 senators + 183 representatives vs 620 MPs) who openly professed their bitterness about how lightly the US had been let off. This would be the best place to start.
 
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