Agree that the Fairey Battle would logically make an adequate torpedo bomber. Certainly no worse than most types of the day and better than many others. So no foul there.
I've been plowing through as many sources as I can of this campaign before commenting, as I didn't want to put my oar in the water before having something to contribute that hasn't already been gone over repeatedly...sometimes to death. Certainly, folks here LOVE to go over technology and weaponry with loving care and detail, so I'll tend to ignore that aspect most times from now on. Plus that end seems covered and, frankly, the Commonwealth forces, at least on the ground, had near parity or even superiority in most encounters in OTL, so that's not truly the issue in any case.
No, what I discovered was the defining issue for the Commonwealth forces in EVERY encounter with Japanese forces, and indeed even before, when trying to set up a defense plan at all, was an utter and complete LACK of command and control organization and communications at ALL levels, from high command to often even the field unit level. This was throughout the campaign and seemingly throughout the forces. Communications were slow, sloppy, or simply nonexistent. Command and control at every level often lackadaisical and informal even at the most vital of moments. That's not to bring into the utter cluster that is the complex interservice web of command needs brought on by having a naval base being defended by air power that needs air bases that need defending by the army (that also needs air cover) whose supply lines are being defended by the navy that needs top cover protection by air power...you get the idea. Getting a coherent chain of command out of THAT that everyone is going to be happy with and happily snap too quickly once the fecal matter flies is asking for a minor miracle. Not saying it can't happen, but even in France in 1944, after years of practice at it there were still issues! And that's not even throwing in the civilian government into the mix: You've got the Singapore Government, the Straits Settlements, Malaya proper, the various Rajs, Sarawak, Brunei, etc.
And, yeah, the headache that's the DEI!
All have to be juggled and accounted for as they've gotta be taken into account for the defense. ESPECIALLY Sumatra. Communication being used at all levels (thus drill, dril, and more drill), command and control (did I mention drills?), and pounding out a solid chain of command (and ensuring everyone understands they WILL be beat with it) are freaking vital.

As for the DEI, something my research turned up is that the place is NOT united on ANY level. What we tend to see as the " Nationalists" are generally (though not always) ethnic Muslim Javanese who back (as now) don't always get on well with others. Javanese, depending on the time, place, individual, and so on ranged in attitude from ambivalent to active dislike of the Dutch, but rarely active hated them. The Dutch rarely dipped into active asshole behavior by this time in their colony, and even tended towards efforts (if clumsy) towards "enlightened patronism" of a sort, increasing putting locals in positions of authority, turning over regions back to local government, and so on. The Javanese, however, weren't idiots, because they damn well knew Java itself was never going to never be anything but a Dutch ruled colony; it was the jewel in the crown, so to speak. Thus, tensions were high and few unhappy to see the Japanese show up. At first.
Not to say all other East Indians got on with the Dutch.
Nope.
Sumatra was a cluster, for example, and not just Aceh, that was just the worst hot spot. The whole place is a mess of tribes and petty kingships (Christian, Muslim, and Pagan) that either hate the Dutch or the Javanese or both. And in any case, are naturally going to look to their own interests (as anyone should).
The Hindu Balinese, right next door to Java greatly disliked the Javanese, but also had no love for the Dutch, and thus were ambivalent about the Japanese at first. The predominantly Christian Ambionese and Moluccans hated the Javanese (and were actually somewhat loyal to the Dutch), and resisted the Japanese as much as the terrain of their small islands allowed. These tough folks also made up the bulk of the native volunteers to the KNIL infantry, especially the NCOs and what native officers there were. I couldn't find ANY that turned coat.
The then pagan Melanesians of Dutch New Guinea...well, they're still to this day fighting the Javanese settlers who they see as just the latest wave of colonizers. They fought all comers: The Dutch, Japanese, Javanese...everyone. And yeah, much of the mountainous interior is unknown, quite rough, and locals often very unfriendly to everyone.
No cares too much about what the folks on Borneo think. After all, the coastal folks are either fellow Muslim Javanese or Malays and think like you, or when you go inland the pagan locals tend to just kill you and take your head rather than talk anyway. And no, I'm not exaggerating, well, not by much. The place was often largely terra incognita less than 50 miles from the coast most places, barring a few tracks, and justly famous for its unfriendly headhunters and impassable disease ridden terrain.
And we all know what a cluster-f Timor Island is...and already was then. The Muslim Timorese perhaps wisely figured resistance was foolish and just went along with the Japanese, but didn't actively support them either and so were largely left alone. The Catholic Timorese, however, actively aided the Australian Commandos and then fought a guerilla war and suffered accordingly. On the other hand it likely taught them hard lessons needed for a later war...!
 
Okay, that was getting a tad long.
The next thing I noticed in my research was how authors were now less harsh on the commanders of the day versus their Japanese opponents. As one author put it, "The Japanese knew exactly when, where, and with what they were going to attack, often with perfect intelligence, against an enemy that was unprepared, understrength, and overstretched. Any commander in history would've sold his soul to have had such advantages. Any defending commander would curse his god for putting him there."
Another noted that if a commander has to choose between being good or being lucky, most would choose to be lucky. The Japanese were rolling sixes for damn near three months straight! The Allies, frankly, were never going to match that winning streak.
A third writer paraphrased Longstreet on why the Confederates lost Gettysburg ("Personally, I think the Union Army had something to do with it."), in that he thinks, frankly, the Japanese were just that damned good. They were the first string (especially their naval forces) going up against the second (or even third) string, and, well, the outcome was kinda predictable. In other words, the Japanese military had alot to do with it.
We tend to let hindsight make us overly judgemental, and this is natural. But we've got to remember that the historical figures on the ground are limited to what they could know, see, and understand based on the information given to them and the world views they're raised with. And they also can only do so much with the tools at hand as well. Now within these parameters a LOT can happen!
Mussolini can decide to end run around Hitler and give a go ahead to do the air drop on Malta, using Kesselring's air fleet and paratroops (yeah, turns out he coulda done that). Why? Just to show he's his own man after his mistress berates him over being Hitler's little pet so often. Yeah, Mussolini could do something that rash and big over something that petty. The guy hated being second fiddle and, frankly, I'm surprised he didn't lash out like that.
If successful, Malta falling changes the strategic and logistical situation in North Africa in a major fashion.
So yeah, it doesn't take a big rock...

Point is, the changes made so far materially have already seriously tilted things towards the Commonwealth holding out longer in Malaya and likely Burma (as a knock-off effect), but the KNIL is still likely screwed unless reinforced by further outside ground, air, and naval units from the Commonwealth, India, Britain, or the US. The reason is thus: The Japanese are on a timetable they can't substantially deviate from, and once they hit the DEI, they'll go for Java, Borneo, and Sumatra (and any strategic bases inbetween) as fast as they can. The Dutch simply lack the time to integrate, train, and equip materially any further than they've done already. The Japanese are simply too far ahead of the game in this regard as it is, and once the war starts, events will move so fast the Allies in the DEI will largely be forced to fight with what's at hand. Reinforcement will be a luxury, and very much an unlikely one due to the likely pace of events. Indeed, this will be the common situation everywhere, as the Japanese need events over quickly due to their own precarious logistical and supply situation (to call Japanese logistics a shoestring is an insult to shoestrings). Though they will be taking advantage of the opportunity this speed of action has given them by putting them inside their enemy's decision loop!
Frankly, the Japanese were in OTL hitting the Allies so hard, fast, and at so many points at once its a a major miracle anything held for any amount of time anywhere, and in fact stopped them cold at several points (especially looking at you, Aussies). And a testament to the sheer grit, skill, and leadership of those oft isolated personnel on the ground that they did.

So, the Dutch are as materially ready as they can be, such as it is (not that should stop training, if anything, they should double down on that). Sucks, but there it is. If the Allies can, however, reinforce them with further naval, and especially ground and air assets of their own NOW, then by all means, send them! The longer the DEI, and especially Sumatra, holds out, the longer Malaya can hold.
 

Fatboy Coxy

Monthly Donor
Blimey Ltlconf, that's a lot to digest!

Torpedo bomber is the usual ATL role for the Battle - the airframe has the load capacity to carry one and they'd be a big improvement on the Vildebeest.
Alternately advanced trainer if someone is thinking of training Indian (or Australian or ...) pilots locally to fill out the new squadrons. Just don't use them as they were in France 1940 - as flying coffins for scores of valuable aircrew.
OK so Merrick suggests and Ltlconf supports the idea of using the Fairey Battle as a torpedo bomber. And as Merrick points out, its not a new idea, plenty of others have gone with that line. However, I won't, and I'll tell you why, firstly see these two threads discussing that idea

and


Both raise issues over engine performance, along with difficulties replacing it, secondly questions on how it might be carried, and thirdly, yet another drop in performance of the Battle due to drag caused by the carried torpedo. I'm sure that modifications could have been done, and a torpedo carried, and it would be better than a Vildebeest, of which Singapore has two squadrons. However, the Vildebeest are planned to be replaced by Australian manufactured Bristol Beaufort's, a purpose designed torpedo bomber, see below for performance details of both aircraft, and don't forget to factor in a torpedo drag effect on the Battle when comparing.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bristol_Beaufort


And lastly, I contacted the Air Ministry last night with concerns about our torpedo operating capabilities here in the Far East, and they assured me that at least one squadron of Vildebeest will have converted over to the DAP manufactured Beaufort by the end of 1941. So I won't be trying to use the Battle in a torpedo carrying role.
 

Fatboy Coxy

Monthly Donor
I was also asked by private conversation, to consider the Westland Whirlwind, a twin engined fighter, see


And again I'm going to have to say no. Currently (March 1941) there is only a single squadron equipped with them in service, RAF 263, which is having some success operating over the English Channel and Western Approaches. Speaking to the Air Ministry, although a second squadron is planned for summer 1941, production is very slow, and numbers available for the Far East would be extremely few. Given that we are committed to keeping numbers of different aircraft operated in the Far East to a minimum, to help ease shipping , the Air Ministry thought we might do better with using the Blenheim in the fighter configuration, which although slow, provides much greater range as a long range fighter, and has commonality with the Blenheim bomber, which are currently serving in the Far East. As always, the Air Ministry thanked us for our enthusiasm, but assured us they have everything completely in hand!
 
Blimey Ltlconf, that's a lot to digest!


OK so Merrick suggests and Ltlconf supports the idea of using the Fairey Battle as a torpedo bomber. And as Merrick points out, its not a new idea, plenty of others have gone with that line. However, I won't, and I'll tell you why, firstly see these two threads discussing that idea

and


Both raise issues over engine performance, along with difficulties replacing it, secondly questions on how it might be carried, and thirdly, yet another drop in performance of the Battle due to drag caused by the carried torpedo. I'm sure that modifications could have been done, and a torpedo carried, and it would be better than a Vildebeest, of which Singapore has two squadrons. However, the Vildebeest are planned to be replaced by Australian manufactured Bristol Beaufort's, a purpose designed torpedo bomber, see below for performance details of both aircraft, and don't forget to factor in a torpedo drag effect on the Battle when comparing.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bristol_Beaufort


And lastly, I contacted the Air Ministry last night with concerns about our torpedo operating capabilities here in the Far East, and they assured me that at least one squadron of Vildebeest will have converted over to the DAP manufactured Beaufort by the end of 1941. So I won't be trying to use the Battle in a torpedo carrying role.
Oh, I don't discount the Buefort is a far superior aircraft. Indeed, it's a underrated and unjustly forgotten aircraft that gave good solid yeoman service in the war. What I doubt is the Ministry coughing them up (aka, prying them out of anyone else's hands) in time to get them to Malaya to get them tropicalized, crews acclimated, trained up to local operational conditions and situation, and inserted into the local chain of command smoothly all before the balloon goes up. At best they'll be freshly arrived and thrown in green. The Battles, however, you can have next week and at least get them broken in. Sure, they're mediocre aircraft at best (and, yeah, I get even that's a tad generous), but they work, and in war never make the perfect you get later the enemy of the good enough you have right now. Especially when you can get alot more than just one squadron of the good enough right freaking NOW! Remember, times ticking!
 
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If the idea of Fairey Battle does not work out, it still means that Malaya has greater measure of defence then it had before. In right conditions it would still be very useful, maybe as a bomber, or as Army cooperation aircraft, or for reconaisance purposes.
 
The Battles, however, you can have next week and at least get them broken in. Sure, they're mediocre aircraft at best (and, yeah, I get even that's a tad generous), but they work, and in war never make the perfect you get later the enemy of the good enough you have right now. Especially when you can get a lot more than just one squadron of the good enough right freaking NOW! Remember, times ticking!
Not quite, to be fair. The Battles, as delivered, can't carry torpedoes, only bombs. At the very least they'd need torpedo shackles and release mechanisms installed, plus very probably changes to the undercarriage. Whether such changes could be made at RAF workshops in Malaya or whether we're talking a factory rebuild I don't know. (Ideally, you'd want to replace the wing bomb cells with extra fuel, eliminate the third crewman and the level bombsight, fit self-sealing tanks and cut away the lower fuselage to carry the torpedo semi-recessed, but then you'd definitely be talking a factory rebuild). And then you'd have to train the crews.
 
The two recent postings by Ltlconf are a sobering reminder of what the OTL Allied forces were facing at the beginning of the Pacific War. And even with a somewhat better prepared British and Commonwealth forces in this ATL a Malayan victory here appears unlikely. But the title of this storyline is after all "Malaya What If" not Malaya Miracle. So perhaps if victory is not possible perhaps we will see a less crushing and catastrophic defeat?

Suppose that the Japanese army are making much poorer progress with heavier casualties down the Malayan peninsula. Could this result in the forces earmarked for Burma eg. the 55th division being diverted to Malaya? This may allow the British and Commonwealth forces in Burma to hold on until the start of the monsoon. Malaya and Singapore are eventually taken in a campaign that lasts a couple months longer then OTL. And in the final few weeks an evacuation of as many troops as possible from Singapore and any other ports that remain in Allied hands on the West coast are transported to Rangoon. It would be a bloody mess with many losses but it does mean Burma holds with a much larger contingent of troops to be resupplied and redeployed for the end of the monsoon in the Fall of 1942. And it also avoids handing over to the Japanese tens of thousands of soldiers to be used as "expendable slave labourers."

Well, this is one possibility.
 
The two recent postings by Ltlconf are a sobering reminder of what the OTL Allied forces were facing at the beginning of the Pacific War. And even with a somewhat better prepared British and Commonwealth forces in this ATL a Malayan victory here appears unlikely. But the title of this storyline is after all "Malaya What If" not Malaya Miracle. So perhaps if victory is not possible perhaps we will see a less crushing and catastrophic defeat?

Suppose that the Japanese army are making much poorer progress with heavier casualties down the Malayan peninsula. Could this result in the forces earmarked for Burma eg. the 55th division being diverted to Malaya? This may allow the British and Commonwealth forces in Burma to hold on until the start of the monsoon. Malaya and Singapore are eventually taken in a campaign that lasts a couple months longer then OTL. And in the final few weeks an evacuation of as many troops as possible from Singapore and any other ports that remain in Allied hands on the West coast are transported to Rangoon. It would be a bloody mess with many losses but it does mean Burma holds with a much larger contingent of troops to be resupplied and redeployed for the end of the monsoon in the Fall of 1942. And it also avoids handing over to the Japanese tens of thousands of soldiers to be used as "expendable slave labourers."

Well, this is one possibility.
You are falling in the same trap as the British high command, when they pushed all reinforments in the death trap that was Malaya and Singapore. What happened in the mean time? The DEI - and more importantly Sumatra - was taken by storm, cutting off lines of communications and retreat. Sending a division to southern Sumatra instead of Singapore could have saved it for some time, might even have saved more Commonwealth forces from being captured.
 

Fatboy Coxy

Monthly Donor
The two recent postings by Ltlconf are a sobering reminder of what the OTL Allied forces were facing at the beginning of the Pacific War. And even with a somewhat better prepared British and Commonwealth forces in this ATL a Malayan victory here appears unlikely. But the title of this storyline is after all "Malaya What If" not Malaya Miracle. So perhaps if victory is not possible perhaps we will see a less crushing and catastrophic defeat?
Totally agree Draconis. Ltlcongf outlines the task well. If Britain can stop the initial Japanese charge down Malaya to Singapore, she then has to contend with the Japanese sweep down through Borneo, Celebes, onto Java. To my mind Sumatra can only be taken if Malaya has fallen, but the loss of Java would seriously imperil the British Forces. While at the moment my main focus is on how Britain might stop the initial charge, for my What If to be successful (and I have set my self June 1942 as a target) I will have to look at how the Allies then go on and defend Java. My main thought at the moment is the longer Britain can delay Japanese advances, the more chance she has of pulling this off, but this is going to have serious impacts on other theatres of war.
 
MWI 41031211 The New Magna Carta

Fatboy Coxy

Monthly Donor
1941, Wednesday 12 March;

Winston Churchill rose to the despatch box and laid down his paper. He paused briefly to allow the Commons to compose itself and await his words.

“The Lease-Lend Bill became law yesterday, when it received the signature of the President….”

The house had been following the progression of the bill for some time, with bated breath. It was no secret Britain was running out of money, the USA may well be the Arsenal of Democracy, but Britain couldn’t afford to pay for it any more. The problem required an innovative solution and Franklin D Roosevelt had delivered.

“…By so doing, the Government and People of the United States have in fact written a new Magna Carta…”

Now Roosevelt could sell, transfer title to, exchange, lease, lend, or otherwise dispose of, to any such government (whose defence the President deems vital to the defence of the United States) and defence article. First Britain, then in April, China, and in October the Soviet Union, would all be kept in the war, by the determination of a President fixed on ensuring democracy overcame fascism. The help would begin as a trickle, then a stream, and then a flood.

“…I offer to the United States our gratitude for her inspiring act of faith”

And as Churchill stood back, so did the whole house rise and cheer.
 
You are falling in the same trap as the British high command, when they pushed all reinforments in the death trap that was Malaya and Singapore. What happened in the mean time? The DEI - and more importantly Sumatra - was taken by storm, cutting off lines of communications and retreat. Sending a division to southern Sumatra instead of Singapore could have saved it for some time, might even have saved more Commonwealth forces from being captured.

Agree that the Allies doing better in Sumatra is vital if the British are to hold southern Malaya and Singapore for significantly longer than OTL
however, according to my admittedly limited sources, you have the sequence of events somewhat askew

iOTL Singapore surrendered on 15 Feb but the Japanese land assault on Sumatra had only started on the 14th (though air attacks began a week earlier)
and resistance continued till near the end of March

i.e. Sumatra did not fall during the abortive British attempts to shore up Malayas defences.

AS others have said, the initial key is delaying the rapid Japanese advance down the Malaya peninsula
 
Agree that the Allies doing better in Sumatra is vital if the British are to hold southern Malaya and Singapore for significantly longer than OTL
however, according to my admittedly limited sources, you have the sequence of events somewhat askew

iOTL Singapore surrendered on 15 Feb but the Japanese land assault on Sumatra had only started on the 14th (though air attacks began a week earlier)
and resistance continued till near the end of March
As far as I can tell from a very brief survey, the initial Japanese landing on Sumatra was made on 14th Feb by forces sent from Indochina on the 9th. For once, the Japanese got ahead of their air cover and the landings were hit hard by Allied aircraft, but there were almost no organised Allied land forces in southern Sumatra and Palembang was quickly occupied. The occupation of central and northern Sumatra followed in March, largely conducted by troops transferred from Malaya.
Obviously if fighting in Malaya is still going on there won't be 20,000 spare troops available for Sumatra. The forces from Indochina had a significant surface escort (8 cruisers, 12 destroyers split between close escort and covering force) but only a single light carrier for air cover; I doubt the Japanese would have sent such a force into harm's way south of Malaya if the Allies still had significant air forces operating out of Singapore.
So rather than Malaya being doomed by the loss of Sumatra, it looks like Sumatra was doomed by the fall of Malaya.

Further East it's a different story - the "Centre Force" that took Dutch Borneo and the "Eastern Force" that took the Celebes never came anywhere near Malaya; they mostly seem to have staged out of Davao in Mindanao, which the Japanese took in late December and turned into a forward base even as American resistance continued further north. The Japanese landings on Java were made simultaneously by Eastern Force, which reached Bali and Timor in late February and Java itself on early March and by Western Force units from Indochina (no land forces appear to have been transferred from Malaya to Java). So if the Philippines campaign goes ATL, a more effective British resistance in Malaya may not buy the Dutch any time at all, though if the RAF/RN can interdict the NW approaches to Java they may be facing a one-front attack rather than a pincer.

There's also the issue that if the Java falls the Japanese can close the Sunda Straight and if they can set up airbases in Northern Malaya they can close the Malacca Straight, leaving anything still fighting in southern Malaya or Sumatra isolated. OTL the British could get convoys into Singapore almost up to the end, but that was because the end came faster in Singapore than the East Indies. Plus if things get too delayed that Japanese may send the First Air Fleet (which OTL raided into the Indian Ocean in April) to shut down supply lines to Singapore and/or escort an invasion force to Java or Sumatra.
 
Not quite, to be fair. The Battles, as delivered, can't carry torpedoes, only bombs. At the very least they'd need torpedo shackles and release mechanisms installed, plus very probably changes to the undercarriage. Whether such changes could be made at RAF workshops in Malaya or whether we're talking a factory rebuild I don't know. (Ideally, you'd want to replace the wing bomb cells with extra fuel, eliminate the third crewman and the level bombsight, fit self-sealing tanks and cut away the lower fuselage to carry the torpedo semi-recessed, but then you'd definitely be talking a factory rebuild). And then you'd have to train the crews.
All valid points and I concede on them all. The point, I guess, is to have the aircraft at all, see if anything can be done with them, rather than wait for a perfect solution that will likely arrive too late. I makes me grind teeth when people get all caught up in the toys and forget the realities on the ground...and I just about did so from the other direction if only just to make that point.
 
The Fairey Battle's main application would be the bombing of Japanese Land forces a task they would do far more easily then in Europe and the opponents have less anti-aircraft artillery and the enemy aircraft are far fewer. They will lose battles to air combat and possibly lots of them. In return they will kill hundreds of Japanese and make the cost of Malays higher. It was not a bad airframe but suffered from a poor engine power to weight ratio as is common with aircraft of the same era. Please note that the Battle is not from the same era and the Il-2 or 1940's designed aircraft, it is a first generation monoplane with a first generation 1000hp V12 designed to a specification for 1000miles 1000lb bomb load and 200mph in the 1933 requirement. It exceeded those requirements comfortably and was a good airframe with limited development potential, having said that if not for the disastrous Europe campaign an improved version with up to %50 more power from the same engine is possible. A Merlin XX would make that extra power and was available in 1940, in other words it could have restored the Battle to acceptable and boosted max speed etc. A Fairey Battle with Armour, self sealing fuel tanks and %50 more power would be interesting performance wise as the airframe is rugged and the bombload adequate.
 
Not quite, to be fair. The Battles, as delivered, can't carry torpedoes, only bombs. At the very least they'd need torpedo shackles and release mechanisms installed, plus very probably changes to the undercarriage. Whether such changes could be made at RAF workshops in Malaya or whether we're talking a factory rebuild I don't know. (Ideally, you'd want to replace the wing bomb cells with extra fuel, eliminate the third crewman and the level bombsight, fit self-sealing tanks and cut away the lower fuselage to carry the torpedo semi-recessed, but then you'd definitely be talking a factory rebuild). And then you'd have to train the crews.
If the 3rd crewman is eliminated, then can the guns be upgraded, to at least another .303 in the other wing from the existing gun and turning the gunner's weapon into a dual mount?
 
I admit a great of ignorance of practical knowledge of aircraft of the period, though I've been told by those in the know that, depending on the factors involved (which are many, varied, and unpredictable) and the machine itself a shocking amount of modification could be done in such places in as Singapore (which did have a surprising number of machine shops after all). Again, I concede on whether or not all the modifications needed are in fact practicable in the time available. Smaller solutions may be the way to go.
Instead, a better use of resources would be preparing Singapore City itself for siege. Quietly stockpiling food, ammunition, medicine, weapons, spare parts, fuel, and most importantly WATER for a worse case scenario. If anyone can admit to the need and act on it....

One thing that drives me to drink is how Churchill, for all his very real faults was indeed a stubborn son-of-a-bitch that never gave up (even when when he probably should've) and yet would prepare for a worst case scenario as a matter of course. Getting a British officer or official in the field to admit even the necessity of doing so often seems akin to pulling to pulling teeth from a mule.
 
Also a plan to shift out as many unnecessary civilians to Ceylon (or elsewhere) to reduce the logistical burden on whatever food and water reserves you are trying to accumulate....
 
When it comes to hard factors (aka; equipment, weapons, aircraft, etc) to add to the defense of the DEI and Malaya, I'd like to add seaplanes. Both floatplanes and flying boats, and plenty of them. Much of the Japanese navy's luck at rolling sixes throughout the DEI campaign came from unescorted Japanese troop convoys slipping through due to Allied aerial search nets being too thin. Often even while they're IJN escorts were arrogantly LOOKING for a fight and leaving troop convoys they were supposed to be protecting totally unprotected! In one case the Allied fleet missed a convoy by only a few miles due the planes just not being available....
Seriously, just a half dozen flying boats and a dozen inexpensive float planes could change a few vital dice rolls, especially if the escorting Japanese admirals on those first few convoys towards Java act just as rashly...!

Intelligence is more important than bullets in many cases, since if don't know where to put the bullets, what's the point? On reading up on the DEI campaign a bit so far (a lot more to do, give me time) it almost seems like the ABDA command to a great extent wore out it's ships chasing after the Japanese convoys (smartly, they were going after the real threat, not the pretty warships) and constantly missing them due to spotty reconnaissance, poor weather, and bad luck. Oh and then running into aggressive escort forces that were often MILES away from the convoys looking for the Allies! The irony!
It comes off as an exercise in frustration, and Doorman's final battle seems as almost as both a release of that frustration and a roar of rage that in the end it all really amounted to nothing.
That's the "softer factor": The Dutch Naval Commander in Chief of the DEI, Admiral Helfitch was an aggressive sumbitch, and certainly his submarine campaign got results (and I approve), but his dogged insistence of attack at all cost on the surface despite the lack of enough proper drydock facilities, machine shop repair facilities, ammunition dumps (for non-Dutch ships), fuel stocks (ironic), and so on meant that the ABDA Naval assets were burned through fast.
This was helped by the Japanese hitting multiple targets fast, in short hops (so air cover from land fields could be used...though for that's 400 freaking miles), and often coordinated so as to hit several at once or within a few days. This pushed Helfitch to send out his ship more than even he privately wished to (yeah, he was a pit bull, but not crazy rabid, he just unfortunately only had one attitude setting in a war).

The more I read the more I figure the British challenge isn't holding the tripod of Malaya, Sumatra, and Java. I'm more and more convinced it's MAYBE doable with luck: Seriously, the Japanese are running the whole thing on a shoestring made of fumes and some gravel in the gears could make some wheels come off. They pulled it off due to a seeming combination of Western distraction (understandable), complacency and underestimating the enemy (fed by a degree of racism, lets admit), poor equipment due the former two issues, and the Allies having a truly uncanny run of bad luck while the Japanese had a equally uncanny run of good luck. Well that and quite frankly they planned it all damned well...because they KNEW just how fragile the whole damn thing was. Funny thing was, THEY were utterly shocked it all worked! They actually largely broke TWO of Murphy's Laws of Combat and walked away:
What can go wrong, will go wrong, and at the worst possible time.
The plan NEVER survives contact with the enemy.

So, how does the British command through some gravel in? They've got roll a boulder up hill, unfortunately. As I said above the enemy is going attack wherever they want and in the East Indies defense against that is impossible. The only solution is to withdraw to what counts and defend with everything you've got. Pull all of the KNIL assets back into Java, Sumatra, and Bali (too close to Java, practically within swimming distance) and send out those recon planes and subs to find and then sink anything flying the Rising Sun floating within 400 miles. Otherwise you're defending everything everywhere in an archipelago of 17000 islands that stretches over 3000 miles across. Yeah. Even if you're a freaking genius of Alexander the Great, that's a bitch to pull off! You can actually win at one point, and yet suddenly find yourself surrounded because the enemy took all the islands AROUND you! You can't defend everything everywhere yet the enemy can pretty much pick what to attack at their leisure and there's jack all you can do about until they're in motion...or sitting on the turf. But can the Allies convince the Dutch to only hold part of their colony, if the most valuable part, true? Good question!
 
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