Hi Vetinari, you touch on a real problem for the Allies. Australia losing the 8th Division in Malaya/Singapore and the island garrisons was a major blow for that country. The spectre of losing the 1st Australian Corps (6th and 7th divisions) in Java, makes me shudder. Losing the 1st Corps, and probably the 8th Division in Malaya, which is where I have them, would be nothing short of a catastrophe. I can't see the Australians allowing things to get to that. I totally agree, that the only way Canberra would send more troops, after them, is as part of a much greater British/American commitment. Australia doesn't have the navy to evacuate its troops, and if losing in Java, would want to withdraw to Australia, expecting a fight for its homeland. It would also have major ramifications on Australia's stance post war.

How Britain/America keep Australia committing the rump of fighting troops in the DEI is another question. Does the US build on the few Philippines reinforcements that are in the DEI. Can they send either the 24th or 25th Divisions from Hawaii?
The 24th was the primary infantry support for Oahu defenses, 25 th was only stood up between August and October 1941. In January the 299th Infantry Regiment, 1/3 rd of the division was stood down as it was a totally Nisei unit. It was not replaced until July.

The 299th became the 100th InfantryBattalion and Cadre for the 442nd Regimental Combat. Both went on to serve with distinction in the MTO and ETO theaters.

Additionally USN was short of shipping and escorts.. It would have required sending a carrier group and all spare destroyers to escort a troop convoy, after the ships of the Pensacola convoy return from Australia, in mid January, as well as shipping from the West Coast. Of course that carrier group misses the early raids, which prepared them for Coral Sea and Midway.
 

Errolwi

Monthly Donor
If the Australian's have lost the 6th, 7th and 8th Divisions, who do the Australians have left? The 9th was badly bruised at Tobruk and remains in MENA during the OTL.
Do the Australians have the manpower and will to rebuild the 8th Division? Am I correct to believe that the Australian army consists of four and later five divisions that can serve outside Australia?
There is also the 2nd NZ Division (1st was the notional HQ for scattered home defense, training and admin). OTL was retained in MENA after an outstanding act of persuasion by the NZ PM in Cabinet and Parliament. It was more useful to the allied cause there as it was desert-conditioned and it would take more shipping to replace it in Africa than other options to reinforce SE Asia/Pacific. A longer campaign in Malaya/DEI could change the equation. At least it would get replacements if deployed there, rather than everything being used for the small and too-late-to-be-particularly-useful 3rd NZ Division OTL.
 
Perhaps the IJA takes Port Moresby as a result?
The IfJapanese were never in a position to take Port Moresby. They had lied to themselves how many native porters they need and were available for their effort across the Owen Stanley mountain range. The Natives basically hated the Japanese and it showed. With the brutal tactics adopted by the Japanese they simply moved further into the jungle, out of the Japanese reach. The Japanese deluded themselves that they could live off the land and instead over-emphasised ammunition and equipment, rather than rations. The result was that by the time they reached Imitar Ridge, they were starving and there were no native porters to carry their equipment or rations to Port Moresby, so they reluctantly retreated, back to their beachheads at Buna and Gona on the north coast of New Guinea. If you think that the Japanese effort in Malaya is a shambles let me introduce you to their effort in New Guinea and Guadalcanal. It was a total disorganization.
 
The 24th was the primary infantry support for Oahu defenses, 25 th was only stood up between August and October 1941. In January the 299th Infantry Regiment, 1/3 rd of the division was stood down as it was a totally Nisei unit. It was not replaced until July.

The 299th became the 100th InfantryBattalion and Cadre for the 442nd Regimental Combat. Both went on to serve with distinction in the MTO and ETO theaters.

Additionally USN was short of shipping and escorts.. It would have required sending a carrier group and all spare destroyers to escort a troop convoy, after the ships of the Pensacola convoy return from Australia, in mid January, as well as shipping from the West Coast. Of course that carrier group misses the early raids, which prepared them for Coral Sea and Midway.
Yep- Forces in Hawaii weren’t going anywhere for a while.

The 24th and 25th both activated on 1 OCT 1941, built from the division of the square (4 infantry regiment) Hawaiian Division. Each division used the base of an existing two regiment Hawaiian division brigade as its foundation with each taking one of the two federalized infantry regiments in the Hawaii Territorial Guard (latterly the Hawaii National Guard). 24ID got the 19th and 21st Infantry along with the 299th Regiment while the 25th got the 27th and 35th Infantry and the 298th Regiment. The 299th had large numbers of Nisei and was consequently (inevitably) dispersed amongst the neighbor islands rather than remain on Oahu near critical facilities and where Japanese immigrant numbers were the highest. Following the Pearl Harbor attack, the regular 34th Infantry was diverted from assignment to the Philippines to reinforce Hawaii. It arrived on 21 DEC 1941 and was initially assigned as the Hawaiian Department reserve along with the 161st Infantry from the Washington National Guard, which was the “remainder“ regiment after the 41st Infantry went triangular. The removal of Nisei members of the 299th to form the 100th battalion effectively gutted the regiment, and the 298th was moved to the 24th in July 42 to replace them. The 25th received the 161st as attached in July and assigned in August of 42 as part of its train up for overseas movement.

According to its museum, the 25th was finally able to turn the more heavily defended south coast of Oahu and conduct “short but intensive“ training at Schofield, east range, and Fort Shafter in November of 42. While small unit training had been going on since summer of 1942, this represented the first regimental sized and combined arms training opportunity. This included some intensive small unit tactics and live fire, including training at the Jungle Training Center (later the Ranger Combat Training School). According to Bergerud, the 161st may have been the first unit to attend the “Ranger Combat Training School” as such. The 35th was the lead regiment, embarking on 25th Nov and arriving at Guadalcanal on 17 Dec.the division was closed by 4 Jan 43.

For anyone interested in fiction, James Jones was an infantryman in F/27th Infantry, serving pre-war at Schofield (“From Here to Eternity” used C Quad rather than the historically correct D quad for its movie adaptation, and the east range golf course subs for the beach defenses on the south shore!) and on Guadalcanal (he was wounded at the Gifu, which serves as the climactic battle in “The Thin Red Line”).
 
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Fatboy Coxy

Monthly Donor
Well the other American Army formation that looks most likely to be available is the Americal Division, which was formed in May 1942, in New Caledonia. However, parts of it were in Australia in February, ie 132nd Infantry Regt in Australia Feb 27, and the 182nd Infantry Regt, 6 March 42. These units could have been married up with the few units in Java, that were the Philippine reinforcements that didn't arrive, and help form a alternative Americal Division.

On a side note, I wonder if the British appreciated how ambitious MacArthur was, could they have played on that, indicating he would have a significant command in the area, if he had at least a corps of troops? Can the arrival of the 32nd and 41st Infantry Divisions be speeded up by a month say.
 

Fatboy Coxy

Monthly Donor
And so well placed to support the Soviet Union.

It was an example of what the British government was trying to juggle in late 1941, with limited shipping to redeploy forces:
Battle of the Atlantic
Keep the Soviet Union in the war; but prepare for Germany turning west again if they did not
Hold North Africa to keep Malta; use Malta to restrict the Axis in North Africa; eventually take Italy out of the war
Revive allies in the Balkans, keep Turkey onside
Reinforce Syria/Iraq as a summer supply line to the Soviet Union and prepare to defend against German attacks if the Soviet Union falls
Deter Japan

Do you send Hurricanes and Valentines to Murmansk, Alexandria or Singapore?
Hi Aber, yes the British (we) are stretched.

We must keep the Russians in the war
We must ensure America joins us, as soon as possible, so don't upset them, reference “Oh! that is the way we talked to her while we were wooing her; now that she is in the harem, we talk to her quite differently!‟
And as you say hold North Africa

Which makes my timeline something of a tightrope walk, in keeping it plausible. I've stretched things with the four Rainbow class subs, diverting Hurricanes, a few select officers in command posts etc, but I think I can argue these sufficiently to get away with it. However, the next post is really stretching things and I may lose a few of you over this. And it's certainly going to cause a stir!
 
Well the other American Army formation that looks most likely to be available is the Americal Division, which was formed in May 1942, in New Caledonia.
Task Force 6814 shipped from New York on 23rd January 1942. New York to Java is more than 20% shorter than New York to Melbourne, and so could arrive by 20th February?

https://www.ibiblio.org/hyperwar/USA/OOB/Americal-history.html

Can be framed as assistance to the Dutch, and gives more fast transport capacity in the Indian Ocean to move troops from the Middle East.
 
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MWI 41110610 A British Secret Weapon

Fatboy Coxy

Monthly Donor
1941, Thursday 06 November;

WS.11X was a very significant convoy by Singapore’s standards, although the troopships, cargo ships and a lone tanker, only counted five in number, escorts excepted. Four had originated from the UK, as part of WS.11, leaving at the end of August, the large tanker joined them at Bombay, from the oil refineries at Abadan. Its make-up was a bit rushed, responding to Churchill’s decision to fully reinforce the Far East after the meeting with Roosevelt. And it was special because it carried a British Secret Weapon.

Planning for its arrival had ensured good preparations had been made. A slight change of plan had been enforced on the British, earlier, in the South Atlantic, the troopship Orion had rammed the battleship HMS Revenge, and in doing so, had severely damaged her bow. A temporary repair had been made in Cape Town, but she was immediately unloaded and taken into one of the Keppel Harbour Dry Docks for permanent repair. Also due for dockyard work at the Naval base was the Crown Colony class light cruiser HMS Mauritius, who had been part of the convoys escort. She had severe corrosion problems in the ship’s fire main, which was made of copper, caused by the internal degaussing system, and required replacing.

The heighten tensions in the Far East were reflected in that the Police had made the areas around the main ports and the naval base, restricted areas, requiring identity cards to be shown and checked. Additionally, Special Branch have been closely monitoring known Japanese agents, and three had been detained for questioning, while found in restricted areas, before later being released, after a lengthy delay while SB had satisfied themselves there was no security breach.

Furthermore, the disembarking of troops and unloading of war material would normally take several days, but the authorities had planned for around the clock working. In Singapore, large numbers of motor transport had been assembled to quickly take troops to local transit camps, and numerous empty trains were parked in sidings at various stations on the island, waiting to be called forward for loading.

The two cargo ships left the convoy earlier, and had arrived in Penang, one dropping anchor in Penang Roads while the other was berthed against the railway wharf at Prai. As night fell, so the holds opened and two cranes began to pick out some of her cargo. Under a full moon, with dockyard floodlights throwing a harsh light on them, the tarpaulin covered vehicles were being quickly lowered onto a train pulling 12 specially built flatbeds, with double bogies at either end. A little before midnight, the train, fully loaded, pulled away, at a very sedate 10 mph, bound for Bukit Mertajam, two minutes later, a second train that had been waiting, pulling another 11 special flatbeds, took its place, and the work continued. By 4.30am, the second train had been loaded, and was away, while the cranes would spend most of the rest of the day unloading smaller, less sensitive cargo, emptying the ship. The following two nights, it would be the turn of the second ship, unloading in the same fashion.

The trains arrived at their destination, 7 miles away, at a partly finished barracks, on a rubber plantation, west of the town, just south of Mertajam Hill, fed by a secondary rail line curling away from the mainline before town. Once the trains were unloaded, they were sent back to Prai for tomorrows load. The reason for this was simple, they only had 23 of these special heavy-duty flatbeds, the FMSR workshops in Kuala Lumpur could only convert three a week, and had only started in early September, under great secrecy.

The unloading was immeasurably helped by the troops of the 2nd Northamptonshire Yeomanry, who were crawling all over their Valentine Mk II tanks, filling diesel tanks, fitting batteries, starting engines, and carefully driving off the flatbeds via a ramp, and into pre-sited positions among the rubber trees. 52 Valentine’s had to be accommodated, 6 of which were replacements for the close support tank, which weren’t available. Work on the barracks had been stopped, only half built, due to the desire to maintain secrecy as much as possible, leaving much of the regiment of 600 men, under canvas. Building work would only resume weeks later, when the fighting had begun. By late morning, all the tanks were driven off the train, canvas covered, and snuggled in their new camp under the trees of the rubber plantation.

The weeks previous had seen a step up in cargo ships arriving from the UK, Canada and elsewhere, as the trickle of war material became a steady flow. Another 60 Marmon Harrington armoured cars, fresh from the factory in South Africa, to equip Indian cavalry units, Hurricanes and other crated aircraft, aero engines, a few more ASDIC sets, lots of vehicles, including gun tractors, mobile workshops, a few recovery vehicles. And spares, stores, loads of it, for the cavernous warehouses, required to support this growing army.

Meanwhile, back in Singapore, the unloading of the rest of the convoy began. The motor transport was busy ferrying troops to transit camps, the gunners of the 5th Field Regt RA and the 80th AT Regt RA, along with their 16 4.5-inch howitzers and 48 2-pounder anti-tank guns respectively, were taken to one barracks. The drafts of British infantry, artillery, engineers, ECO’s, a few staff officers, were distributed to various camps and posts. A Royal Navy draft, mostly newly trained with a smattering of experienced being promoted to ships or shore establishments, more Wrens for Kanji, as well as a Royal Marine contingent. And a lot for the RAF, a big number of ground crew, some air crew, administrational and a variety of tradesmen required to keep the units running, 50 pairs of drop tanks for the Hurricanes and somewhere in it all, a small RAF “Y” interception team, 52 Wireless Unit, also heading for Kanji to boost the effort in intercepting Japanese Navy JN-25 Radio Coded messages, providing more material for the decoders. Carried with them was an analogue decrypting machine, built by the Americans, able to decrypt Japanese diplomatic messages. It was the third one built, gifted to the British, and code-named ‘Purple’.
 

Fatboy Coxy

Monthly Donor
My outright apologies to all of you who I castigated over tanks in the jungle! Fact is, I fancied playing with 'tanks in the jungle', just as a little boy might, with all the problems they will encounter. I do have to say, this is, in my opinion, an incredible stretch of the lines of plausibility, and I can only apologies for my indulgence.
 
Those valentines will be a major help but the intel asserts will be a major game changer. Heck just seeing uptick in traffic in certain areas will provide major help.
 
My outright apologies to all of you who I castigated over tanks in the jungle! Fact is, I fancied playing with 'tanks in the jungle', just as a little boy might, with all the problems they will encounter. I do have to say, this is, in my opinion, an incredible stretch of the lines of plausibility, and I can only apologies for my indulgence.
Is this a diversion of the Valentines that went to India on that convoy (which would delay the establishment of the RAC regiments there, but add 3 more British infantry battalions), or extras?
 

Ramp-Rat

Monthly Donor
The arrival in Malaysia of the latest convoy, has only strengthened the military, and makes a Japanese conquest extremely unlikely. While the Valentine Mk II, suffers from the same problem of all the early war British tanks, in that its main gun, is primarily an anti tank weapon, and lacks a good HE round. It is however better than any armoured vehicle that the Japanese can deploy, and it along with the increased number of 2 pounder AT guns, are going to make mincemeat of any tanks they encounter. Although they and any other reinforcements are only going to have a short time to acclimatise, however acclimatisation is not as vital for the armoured forces as it is for infantry. What however is vital is that they get introduced to the ground conditions, and the difficulties that they will encounter in operating off road. And this is another area where I expect that the situation ITTL will differ greatly from the situation IOTL. IOTL troops that damaged or destroyed a rubber tree, were subjected to serious fines and punishment. ITTL, damaged, destroy a rubber tree or other resource outside of a training area, and depending on the reason, got lost, we had an accident boss and the truck/car went off the road, insert dum reason of choice. And yes you may get fined or put on report, but damage/destroy something in a dedicated training area, well it’s all part of the training regime. And so within a short time, I would expect a few simple experiments to be conducted, can a Valentine climb over a downed rubber tree and if it can, how old and how many, similarly can it knock down a standing rubber tree and advance over it once it has been knocked down. Once answers to these simple questions have been obtained, both demonstrations and instructions as to the right and wrong way to go about this action will be arranged. The loss of a few hundred rubber trees in training, is a small price to pay, for the information provided to the troops and high command. As for the deployment of a Purple decoding machine to Singapore, is contrary to established British policy, such equipment was normally retained at Bletchley, our authors decision is his to make. However without substantial input from Americans skilled in its operation, it will take time for the British to get up to speed with it, and get good results out of it.

RR.
 
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Fatboy Coxy

Monthly Donor
Is this a diversion of the Valentines that went to India on that convoy (which would delay the establishment of the RAC regiments there, but add 3 more British infantry battalions), or extras?
Hi Aber, it has to be extra's, and here's my reasoning.

I'm trying hard not to provide more ripples to the historical path, because of the consequences that follow. I want Crusader to be fought as was (ouch that's a spoiler!) because my alternative history isn't about North Africa, its about Malaya. That said, after Crusader, the reinforcement flow to the Far East will impact on the North African campaign, as it did, but I suspect more deeply. At that point I'm then writing about North Africa as well as Malaya. So there's no short cut to the British evolution of armoured warfare provided by me. I have to say at this point my knowledge of the North African campaign is poor, I don't confess to being an expert in any shape or form, and certainly the stories on Operation Crusader that I'm currently writing, are a real struggle for me.

There is obviously an impact to sending an extra tank regiment, with regard to shipping, which I'm able to slip under the blanket of obscurity, but someone, somewhere is going short, and I'm easing it away with the explanation of it didn't matter in the great scheme of things. But that's not something I can continue to do, I will have to account, going forward, for shortages elsewhere.

Am I right in thinking this the first of two convoys (WS 12 being the second) that brought the 1st Armoured Division to North Africa?
 
My outright apologies to all of you who I castigated over tanks in the jungle! Fact is, I fancied playing with 'tanks in the jungle', just as a little boy might, with all the problems they will encounter. I do have to say, this is, in my opinion, an incredible stretch of the lines of plausibility, and I can only apologies for my indulgence.
No its all good - I have a darling of an idea that the 2nd AIF get supplied with 150 odd Covenanters during 1941 in order to help stand up their armoured division and despite being intended only for training purposes many of these tanks end up in the Jungle - with all the fortes and foibles that entails

Having Valentine II in Malaya for the IJA is about the same as a Tiger Tank on the Eastern front so long as the 'DUKE' forces can get it to work and learn to fight it in Malaya.

Jungle Valentine 2.jpg


Here are a pair 'under canopy' valentines shortly after their arrival in Malaya* having their No 19 radios netted in - note the boxes of 7.92mm BESA ammo carried on the rear deck a practice when the sub units were supporting infantry formations that did not have this ammo in their supply chain.

*These are actually 3rd NZ Division ones of the 3rd New Zealand Tank Squadron on Green Island in Feb 1944
 
Nice-

Tanks! The Stuart performed credibly against Japanese armor in the Philippines at this time; the more heavily armored valentine should do as well. No canister is unfortunate, but the morale effect of a tank firing its under armor machine guns should still be a win. Hopefully, as others have said, the British exercise the tanks to both acclimatize them as much as possible and get leaders and crew used to using the terrain to maneuver rather than being road bound.

More artillery and engineers along with vehicles! Can never have too much. The 25 pounder was effective in shooting through canopy, and more guns you have, the more you can maneuver them in mutual support. That should help offset the isolation effect of Japanese flanking attacks by enabling better opportunities for reinforcing fires.

Drop tanks should enable loitering CAPs, long(ish) range interception, or even maritime escort (!) air missions. Plus more maintainers and crew to keep the sortie and availability rates up.

It’s like an early Christmas with surprises all around…
 
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Hi Ltlconf, so are you suggesting Halsey replacing Hart (or his replacement), or more likely just commanding any carrier task force?

And with such a big USN commitment, can this be placed under a British Theatre Commander?, if not, where do we redraw the theatre boundaries?
The Americans will be leery of placing their carriers under British command, especially as Halsey was one of the few admirals in the USN that was a naval air power advocate, as well as seen as highly aggressive. To the point being maybe too aggressive.
On the other hand, at this time the US doctrine was for independent carrier task forces operating on their own, each with one or two carriers, a couple of cruisers, and a half-dozen destroyers. These task forces work together loosely to attack enemy carriers, but out of sight of each other so the enemy can't catch them together and knock out all the carriers in one big blow.
Worked at Coral Sea and Midway, but air strike coordination proved difficult (impossible, really), so ironically we ended up adopting the IJN box formation with carriers grouped together. However unlike the IJN, we put battleships as well as cruisers and destroyers, in a ring around them (the IJN kept the battleships separate), all carrying more flak guns than God. Especially the battleships. That proved the winning trick.
Anyway, in 1942 the US won't like it, but as they'll tend to operate as independent task forces in any case, they'll suck it up. And so long as the British commanders are aggressive, but also take airpower's threat to surface ships seriously, Halsey will deal. He could work with MacArthur, after all, even though he otherwise considered him one megalomaniacal, arrogant, son of a bitch and hated his guts...and that was Halsey being nice about it. But Halsey still worked with the man, and honestly gave it his all, because he was ordered to. So British naval officers won't be an issue IMO, as most it seems were at least competent, had decent personalities (no one seemed a problem type from what I've read), and determined to make a fight of it.

While Halsey admires aggression, however, he's also a man who fully agreed with, and practiced, Nimitz's philosophy of calculated risk, constant training, and trying out new ideas when battlefield realities hit you in the face. So he may butt heads with a certain Dutch admiral...
 
Or we can have a dream scenario, Doug either gets a cloud of shrapnel replace his face, or one of the B-17's that was meant to fly him to Australia (which were apparently in crap condition when they arrived) crashes due to having to rush to board.

Either way, Mac dies.

We can dream can't we?
This would've the perfect solution: The US public gets their martyr, Australia gets a quality US Army general that respects the Australian soldiers instead of a megalomaniacal a-hole, and General Marshal and Nimitz have far less stress in their lives. Everybody wins.
 
Tanks! The Stuart performed credibly against Japanese armor in the Philippines at this time; the more heavily armored valentine shouldn’t do as well.

...Why not? That makes no sense? It would utterly dominate IJA tanks and in turn be difficult for the IJA to destroy as they lacked AT weapons and certainly did not have them at Platoon and company level (the only AT rifle they had was the Type 97 which weighed 67 Kilos and was manned and operated by a 11 man team with 9 horses) and they had made about 950 by end of 1941 and from what I have been able to determine was not deployed outside of China other than special units such as the Teishin Shudan Paratroopers.

"the Type 97 round was credited with the ability to penetrate 30 mm (1.2 in) of armour at 90° at a range of 250 metres (270 yd)"

So even that weapon system is going to struggle vs a Valentine

Valentine_armour.jpg




No canister is unfortunate, but the morale effect of a tank firing its under armor machine guns should still be a win.
The Stuart didn't have any HE or Cannister in the Philippines either except for rounds 'Macgyvered up' by taking warheads from Philippine Army M1916 37mm TRP guns and attaching them to AP cases (with the shell removed)

The 2 Stuart tank units arrived in the Philippines equipped with only AP rounds

37mm HE started production in Feb 42 and Cannister in April 42 - and the first recorded use of Cannister was at Alligator Creek on Guadalcanal where the 1st Special Weapons Battalion deployed 2 x 37mm cannon equipped with this ammunition and took part in the destruction of the Ichiki Detachment
 

Fatboy Coxy

Monthly Donor
The arrival in Malaysia of the latest convoy, has only strengthened the military, and makes a Japanese conquest extremely unlikely. While the Valentine Mk II, suffers from the same problem of all the early war British tanks, in that its main gun, is primarily an anti tank weapon, and lacks a good HE round. It is however better than any armoured vehicle that the Japanese can deploy, and it along with the increased number of 2 pounder AT guns, are going to make mincemeat of any tanks they encounter. Although they and any other reinforcements are only going to have a short time to acclimatise, however acclimatisation is not as vital for the armoured forces as it is for infantry. What however is vital is that they get introduced to the ground conditions, and the difficulties that they will encounter in operating off road. And this is another area where I expect that the situation ITTL will differ greatly from the situation IOTL. IOTL troops that damaged or destroyed a rubber tree, were subjected to serious fines and punishment. ITTL, damaged, destroy a rubber tree or other resource outside of a training area, and depending on the reason, got lost, we had an accident boss and the truck/car went off the road, insert dum reason of choice. And yes you may get fined or put on report, but damage/destroy something in a dedicated training area, well it’s all part of the training regime. And so within a short time, I would expect a few simple experiments to be conducted, can a Valentine climb over a downed rubber tree and if it can, how old and how many, similarly can it knock down a standing rubber tree and advance over it once it has been knocked down. Once answers to these simple questions have been obtained, both demonstrations and instructions as to the right and wrong way to go about this action will be arranged. The loss of a few hundred rubber trees in training, is a small price to pay, for the information provided to the troops and high command. As for the deployment of a Purple decoding machine to Singapore, is contrary to established British policy, such equipment was normally retained at Bletchley, our authors decision is his to make. However without substantial input from Americans skilled in its operation, it will take time for the British to get up to speed with it, and get good results out of it.

RR.
Hi Ramp-Rat, actually the arrival of the American gifted Purple decoding machine is historical fact. What quite happened to it is lost in the chaos that descended on Singapore as she fell, but I have no evidence the Japanese knew of the machine. How this plays out in my timeline, we'll have to wait and see!
 
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