Bicentennial Man: Ford '76 and Beyond

Given we're seeing a (presumably successful) Carey strategy of being hyper-aggressive if anything I expect he'd double down.
Yeah what you’d probably really see here is both parties learning that targeted, but scorched earth, campaigns work
Oof, without the backing of a political party the televangelist scandals of the late 80s might be enough to do them in.
Mmm yeah that’s a good point. Though if they’re less of a big deal by the time of those scandals, those scandals may not be as big a deal, either
 
Given we're seeing a (presumably successful) Carey strategy of being hyper-aggressive if anything I expect he'd double down.
True but I wonder if Atwater will be able to rise up the Republican ranks since Thurmond barely survived his 1978 senate race
 
Bunker Busted
Bunker Busted

Spain's populace was as shocked as anybody - the PSOE had won a majority government, and by a healthy margin, in a shocking, epochal landslide. Suarez's UCD collapsed to five seats, just one more than the Communists, as the Socialists and pseudo-Francoist, right-wing alliance People's Coalition absorbed most of the voters stuffed into his centrist bloc. The Socialists won 209 seats [1], well above the figured needed to command a majority of the Cortes on their own. Gonzalez appeared on television that evening, grinning from ear to ear, raising a clenched fist in the air and declaring "democracy has come to Spain at last!" Behind and in front of him, several Socialist revelers could be seen waving the purple-banded Republican flag.

Gonzalez only made it about halfway through his speech before the feed cut out - in Madrid, several members of the Bunker had seized control of Prado del Rey, the headquarters for Television Espanola (TVE), the state-owned sole television channel of Spain. Minutes later, tanks were driving into Madrid, and hundreds of confused soldiers were setting up barricades under vague orders of "controlling public unrest." Gonzalez, still speaking to the crowd, was informed of the cut of television feeds and was quickly evacuated, minutes before approximately forty Civil Guardsmen arrived at the scene to attempt to arrest him.

The coup attempt was a debacle. Alfonso Armada, its putative leader, overslept and thus did not make it to Prado del Rey to announce the seizure of government before the television station was besieged by an angry mob of civilians. The Civil Guard posted up in front of the Cortes, but then left late in the night, apparently because they had expected politicians to be there and were shocked to only find janitorial staff and a few civil servants. The decision to stage the coup late in the evening, when Madrilenos were out and about eating, drinking and partying to celebrate the election, meant that coup-sympathetic soldiers and officers ran into inebriated, outraged Spaniards who accosted and assaulted them. Most infantrymen, Guardsmen and even junior officers dispatched to the streets of Madrid and, belatedly, Barcelona and Bilbao were not hardened Francoists like their superiors and threw down their arms when they realized they were being used to put down democracy; nonetheless, about sixty people, most of them protestors, were killed across Spain during the violence, the majority of them in the fight for control of the television studios at Prado del Rey.

Once TVE was back in the hands of civil government, Gonzalez spoke angrily on television, denouncing the coup. The next day, King Juan Carlos I did the same; his silence for a full eighteen hours after broadcasting was under control rankled many on the left and among regionalists, who found it suspicious. [2] Gonzalez never entertained such thinking, appearing publicly with the King later in the week to project unity in forming a fairly moderate social democratic government to forge ahead with the democratic transition; nonetheless, it became an open question how much, exactly, Madrid controlled the country, and Spain's bumpy road to stability through the 1980s had cleared its largest, though certainly not its last, speed bump...

[1] Seven more than in 1982
[2] There's an open, lively and somewhat conspiratorial debate in Spain to this day about how much exactly Juan Carlos I knew about 23F ahead of time
 
I’m surprised that the coup went off worse than it did in reality; but I don’t think we can expect much different from the moderate policy Gonzales and his allies pursued IOTL.
 
Really great to see the elaboration on the 1980 election.

I like the angle of Carey's attacks, however, I am not sure he would let Ronnie off the hook vis-a-vis his relatively extreme positions. Recall a major stumbling block for Reagan OTL was that he was viewed as much too far to the right by the majority of voters in OTL's 1970s (and here as well). Carey would benefit from highlighting Reagan's record with his own in several ways. Reagan was an adamant supporter of the Vietnam war, Carey was one of the first Democrats to publicly speak out against it. Reagan opposed Medicare and the Great Society, Carey supported it. Ditto for the CRA and ERA. As well, I can see Carey subtly contrasting his war record with that of his opponent's. While Carey was on the beaches of Normandy, Reagan stayed home in California and filmed movies, or something to that effect. This would mold well with the Hollywood Ron schtick.

I can see Reagan attacking Carey by associating him with crumbling, crime-ridden inner cities. Carey can retort with the great reforms he implemented to save NYC and reference Ford's approval of the loan to drive a wedge between Republicans. As well, I think Carey will be harkening back to the New deal (as mentioned in the chapter on the DNC) particularly in reference to the TVA and other poverty alleviating programs to win votes in the upper-south and Appalachia. Reagan will be doing a lot of dogwhsitling to win over voters in the Deep South.
 
Carey could probably not do any campaigning whatsoever and still win with a Johnson '64 level landslide. Why?

That's simple. Reagan would run well to the right of OTL due to wanting to distinguish himself from the failures of Nixon and Ford. Imagine an ATL Reagan 1980 campaign promising to rol back the entirety of the sexual revolution, end all civil rights law, get rid of all new deal or great society economic legislation and promising to bring back the draft to improve the "moral fiber" of america's young men.
 
Imagine an ATL Reagan 1980 campaign promising to rol back the entirety of the sexual revolution, end all civil rights law, get rid of all new deal or great society economic legislation and promising to bring back the draft to improve the "moral fiber" of america's young men.
There’s 0% chance he goes this far but more likely he focuses on framing that a Hugh Carey presidency will make inflation worse with a high tax spending spree. if I had to guess he’d have a very rural populist messaging to contrast to Carey’s big city image. I doubt he’d lean too hard into dog whistling to not alienate northern and Western Republicans/moderates. Being Goldwater 2.0 which is what he’d be if he leaned hard into dog whistling would send the conservative cause back in a major way
 
Really great to see the elaboration on the 1980 election.

I like the angle of Carey's attacks, however, I am not sure he would let Ronnie off the hook vis-a-vis his relatively extreme positions. Recall a major stumbling block for Reagan OTL was that he was viewed as much too far to the right by the majority of voters in OTL's 1970s (and here as well). Carey would benefit from highlighting Reagan's record with his own in several ways. Reagan was an adamant supporter of the Vietnam war, Carey was one of the first Democrats to publicly speak out against it. Reagan opposed Medicare and the Great Society, Carey supported it. Ditto for the CRA and ERA. As well, I can see Carey subtly contrasting his war record with that of his opponent's. While Carey was on the beaches of Normandy, Reagan stayed home in California and filmed movies, or something to that effect. This would mold well with the Hollywood Ron schtick.

I can see Reagan attacking Carey by associating him with crumbling, crime-ridden inner cities. Carey can retort with the great reforms he implemented to save NYC and reference Ford's approval of the loan to drive a wedge between Republicans. As well, I think Carey will be harkening back to the New deal (as mentioned in the chapter on the DNC) particularly in reference to the TVA and other poverty alleviating programs to win votes in the upper-south and Appalachia. Reagan will be doing a lot of dogwhsitling to win over voters in the Deep South.
It’s not so much that he’s letting Reagan off the hook, so much as that he’s not banking on voters - very grumpy after the shocks of the 70s - doing the math themselves, the way Carter did. Carey knows what a talented communicator Reagan is and if anybody is able to pivot from the harder-right positions he took in the primary to a general election, it’s a former actor. So you have to make his pivot seem like sleazy bullshit first to make it not land. Hence, Hollywood Ron.

Everything else you say I agree with, though, and we’ll have another campaign mega-update before we get the results of the election and then the last days of the Ford Presidency
 
There’s 0% chance he goes this far but more likely he focuses on framing that a Hugh Carey presidency will make inflation worse with a high tax spending spree. if I had to guess he’d have a very rural populist messaging to contrast to Carey’s big city image. I doubt he’d lean too hard into dog whistling to not alienate northern and Western Republicans/moderates. Being Goldwater 2.0 which is what he’d be if he leaned hard into dog whistling would send the conservative cause back in a major way
Expect a lot of “conservative California’s success, liberal New York’s failure” in the Reagan campaign, since both men are former/current Governors running to bring tangible visions and styles of governance to Washington
 
It’s not so much that he’s letting Reagan off the hook, so much as that he’s not banking on voters - very grumpy after the shocks of the 70s - doing the math themselves, the way Carter did. Carey knows what a talented communicator Reagan is and if anybody is able to pivot from the harder-right positions he took in the primary to a general election, it’s a former actor. So you have to make his pivot seem like sleazy bullshit first to make it not land. Hence, Hollywood Ron.
He could absolutely make the argument that after twelve years of Republican Presidents, any walking back is typical GOP-bullshittery. Give them an inch and they'll take a mile sort of thing.

Also (And I fully expect that this is going too far into fantasy, but the idea has risen in my head and thus I must speak it) there's also a curious thought flitting around in the back of my brain about Jonestown. You can absolutely make the argument that it's San Francisco's problem (And therefore a liberal issue) but at the same time Reagan was the governor at the time Jones was gaining the power he needed to have control over people. He was not a complete unknown in terms of being a threat, but he was left alone for the most part. And you've got a pissed off Leo Ryan who is running against the establishment and who can speak to what happened there and what such an awful atrocity did to people. Hard to be 'tough on crime' when you let a cult-leader fester in the heart of your own state, and a 'hippie' threat to boot, the kind that Reagan promised he'd deal with.

(If anyone has any information on this, I will happily stand corrected. Surprisingly I'm getting zilch from looking up Reagan and Jones's names together, you'd figure that it'd come up more)
 
He could absolutely make the argument that after twelve years of Republican Presidents, any walking back is typical GOP-bullshittery. Give them an inch and they'll take a mile sort of thing.

Also (And I fully expect that this is going too far into fantasy, but the idea has risen in my head and thus I must speak it) there's also a curious thought flitting around in the back of my brain about Jonestown. You can absolutely make the argument that it's San Francisco's problem (And therefore a liberal issue) but at the same time Reagan was the governor at the time Jones was gaining the power he needed to have control over people. He was not a complete unknown in terms of being a threat, but he was left alone for the most part. And you've got a pissed off Leo Ryan who is running against the establishment and who can speak to what happened there and what such an awful atrocity did to people. Hard to be 'tough on crime' when you let a cult-leader fester in the heart of your own state, and a 'hippie' threat to boot, the kind that Reagan promised he'd deal with.

(If anyone has any information on this, I will happily stand corrected. Surprisingly I'm getting zilch from looking up Reagan and Jones's names together, you'd figure that it'd come up more)
You know Id actually Forgotten about Leo Ryan’s scorched earth revenge tour. It was probably more directed at detailing Jerry Brown’s ambitions but I’m sure he’d criticize Reagan pretty harshly, too
 
There’s 0% chance he goes this far but more likely he focuses on framing that a Hugh Carey presidency will make inflation worse with a high tax spending spree. if I had to guess he’d have a very rural populist messaging to contrast to Carey’s big city image. I doubt he’d lean too hard into dog whistling to not alienate northern and Western Republicans/moderates. Being Goldwater 2.0 which is what he’d be if he leaned hard into dog whistling would send the conservative cause back in a major way
No dogwhistles, just explicitly saying the southern way as the right way to go and that martin luther king was a communist. Being explicit and honest about saying he'd repeal all civil rights protections and appoint law enforcement officials and judges with "understanding" attitudes.
 
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