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| alternate_history:the_sliding_scale_of_alternate_history_plausibility [2017/08/16 04:43] – [Examples] petike | alternate_history:the_sliding_scale_of_alternate_history_plausibility [2018/07/12 14:32] – petike |
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| Like other forms of Speculative Fiction, Alternate History varies in its inherent "hardness" with AH Fandom generally grading it by how "plausible" the AH is based on historical realism and verisimilitude. At the "hard" end of plausibility are well-researched pieces that take into account historical sources and trends, logical changes due to the [[alternate history:Butterfly Effect]], and try to produce allohistorical events that flow logically from the Point of Departure/Divergence [[pods/pods|PoD]]. At the "soft" end are works of pure Fantasy and Rule Of Cool, generally a result of AlienSpaceBats. | Like other forms of Speculative Fiction, Alternate History varies in its inherent "hardness" with AH Fandom generally grading it by how "plausible" the AH is based on historical realism and verisimilitude. At the "hard" end of plausibility are well-researched pieces that take into account historical sources and trends, logical changes due to the [[alternate history:Butterfly Effect]], and try to produce allohistorical events that flow logically from the Point of Departure/Divergence [[pods:pods|PoD]]. At the "soft" end are works of pure Fantasy and Rule Of Cool, generally a result of AlienSpaceBats. |
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| While the line between "plausible" and not is subjective, the following five levels tend to encompass the general consensus in the online AH Fandom: | While the line between "plausible" and not is subjective, the following five levels tend to encompass the general consensus in the online AH Fandom: |
| **Type I - Hard Alternate History:** These are works that adhere to very strict, even scientific standards in their plausibility. Research is often detailed and intensive, Butterflies are followed logically, and with attention to details, such as the economic or logistical feasibility of an invasion. At their best they set aside the personal "wants" and "if only's" of the author and try to accurately determine the most likely What If result of a [[pods:pods|PoD]]. In some cases they are arguably more "plausible" than actual history ! A majority of historical counter-factuals fall into this category. [[alternate history:Wank|Alternate History Wanks]] very rarely fall into this category. Type I Alternate Histories are often "unsteered", meaning that they have no predetermined outcome and simply follow the logical changes ("what if Lee won at Gettysburg?"). | **Type I - Hard Alternate History:** These are works that adhere to very strict, even scientific standards in their plausibility. Research is often detailed and intensive, Butterflies are followed logically, and with attention to details, such as the economic or logistical feasibility of an invasion. At their best they set aside the personal "wants" and "if only's" of the author and try to accurately determine the most likely What If result of a [[pods:pods|PoD]]. In some cases they are arguably more "plausible" than actual history ! A majority of historical counter-factuals fall into this category. [[alternate history:Wank|Alternate History Wanks]] very rarely fall into this category. Type I Alternate Histories are often "unsteered", meaning that they have no predetermined outcome and simply follow the logical changes ("what if Lee won at Gettysburg?"). |
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| **Type II - Hard/Soft Alternate History:** These are works that incorporate both Hard and Soft elements. Perhaps it is well researched and incorporates historical methodology, but leaves room for adventurous outcomes or Rule of Drama/Cool/Comedy. The author may take some liberties in following butterflies, such as allowing some post-[[pods:pods|PoD]] births or a measure of parallelism. Perhaps they've accelerated a certain technology in a way that's rather "convenient", but doesn't strain the Willing Suspension Of Disbelief too much. Or perhaps the butterflies and methodology are sound, but obviously "steered" with a predetermined outcome ("I need a setting where an independent Confederate States faces off against the Union in a Great War analog, what [[pods/pods|PoD]] can I choose to get there realistically?"). Some counter-factuals may fall into this Type, such as those by historians with an obvious political bias or pet theory or ones that allow an improbable outcome to look at the ramifications in order to study a tangential area (for example allow for an "improbable" Japanese WWII victory scenario in order to study the cultural implications of such an event). A well-done Alternate History [[Wank]] can qualify here. | **Type II - Hard/Soft Alternate History:** These are works that incorporate both Hard and Soft elements. Perhaps it is well researched and incorporates historical methodology, but leaves room for adventurous outcomes or Rule of Drama/Cool/Comedy. The author may take some liberties in following butterflies, such as allowing some post-[[pods:pods|PoD]] births or a measure of parallelism. Perhaps they've accelerated a certain technology in a way that's rather "convenient", but doesn't strain the Willing Suspension Of Disbelief too much. Or perhaps the butterflies and methodology are sound, but obviously "steered" with a predetermined outcome ("I need a setting where an independent Confederate States faces off against the Union in a Great War analog, what [[pods:pods|PoD]] can I choose to get there realistically?"). Some counter-factuals may fall into this Type, such as those by historians with an obvious political bias or pet theory or ones that allow an improbable outcome to look at the ramifications in order to study a tangential area (for example allow for an "improbable" Japanese WWII victory scenario in order to study the cultural implications of such an event). A well-done Alternate History [[Wank]] can qualify here. |
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| **Type III - Soft Alternate History:** These are works where the plausibility of the setting's alt-history is less important than setting up a world that fits the creator's artistic objectives. Research is often minimal to moderate and used simply to give some verisimilitude to the setting. [[Butterfly Effect|Butterflies]] may be utterly ignored, politically correct history may make an appearance, and plausibility will take a back seat to Rule of Drama/Cool/Comedy. Perhaps [[Citroen DS Incident|parallelism has run to ridiculous levels]] or the author uses historical domain characters born way after the [[pods:pods|PoD]] ("I don't care if he was born centuries after the historical Fall of Rome, I want General Patton fighting the Modern Romans in Gaul!"). Perhaps the rate of technological growth is just too high. Perhaps the author's politics and desires so totally tint the work that it breaks any Willing Suspension Of Disbelief and turns it into an AH-themed Author Tract. Many [[Wank|Alternate History Wanks]] fall into this Type. Type III Alternate Histories are almost always "steered" ("okay, so I need a Confederate George Patton running a blitzkrieg through Stalinist China..."). | **Type III - Soft Alternate History:** These are works where the plausibility of the setting's alt-history is less important than setting up a world that fits the creator's artistic objectives. Research is often minimal to moderate and used simply to give some verisimilitude to the setting. [[Butterfly Effect|Butterflies]] may be utterly ignored, politically correct history may make an appearance, and plausibility will take a back seat to Rule of Drama/Cool/Comedy. Perhaps [[Citroen DS Incident|parallelism has run to ridiculous levels]] or the author uses historical domain characters born way after the [[pods:pods|PoD]] ("I don't care if he was born centuries after the historical Fall of Rome, I want General Patton fighting the Modern Romans in Gaul!"). Perhaps the rate of technological growth is just too high. Perhaps the author's politics and desires so totally tint the work that it breaks any Willing Suspension Of Disbelief and turns it into an AH-themed Author Tract. Many [[Wank|Alternate History Wanks]] fall into this Type. Type III Alternate Histories are almost always "steered" ("okay, so I need a Confederate George Patton running a blitzkrieg through Stalinist China..."). |
| **Type IV - Utterly Implausible AH:** These are works that are so Soft that they ooze into a pool. Works that are so implausible as to be effectively impossible and so Soft as to prove impossible to take seriously. Works where research was so poor or ill-considered, author politics so prevalent, Butterflies so ignored, details (logistics, politics, etc.) so overlooked, often purposefully, that there's no way anyone with even a passing familiarity with the history can take it seriously. Infamously implausible scenarios like [[pods:sealion|Operation Sealion]] - Nazi Germany's plan to invade Britain during World War II, which has become Memetic Mutation because of this - to be one of the worst military plans ever conceived (it would have been a catastrophic defeat for Germany that would have effectively destroyed the Wehrmacht and allowed the Allies to win up to a year earlier) - are often placed here, as are utterly implausible technology jumps, such as Aztecs developing breech loading rifles in 1420. Over-the-top totally ludicrous Alternate History [[Wank|Wanks]] are usually put here. Obviously a lot of YMMV here. One good "rule of thumb" is if a [[pods:pods|PoD]] necessary to make the outcome plausibly happen is so far in the past that Butterflies would totally negate the very events that created the setting (such as a [=PoD=] to give Hitler the fleet he needed to invade the UK would need to be before WWI, probably negating the rise of Nazism), then it may be a Type IV. ''Note:'' These works are often defined as [[Alien Space Bats]]; in fact the original term "Alien Space Bats" was coined to refer to these type of implausible works ! | **Type IV - Utterly Implausible AH:** These are works that are so Soft that they ooze into a pool. Works that are so implausible as to be effectively impossible and so Soft as to prove impossible to take seriously. Works where research was so poor or ill-considered, author politics so prevalent, Butterflies so ignored, details (logistics, politics, etc.) so overlooked, often purposefully, that there's no way anyone with even a passing familiarity with the history can take it seriously. Infamously implausible scenarios like [[pods:sealion|Operation Sealion]] - Nazi Germany's plan to invade Britain during World War II, which has become Memetic Mutation because of this - to be one of the worst military plans ever conceived (it would have been a catastrophic defeat for Germany that would have effectively destroyed the Wehrmacht and allowed the Allies to win up to a year earlier) - are often placed here, as are utterly implausible technology jumps, such as Aztecs developing breech loading rifles in 1420. Over-the-top totally ludicrous Alternate History [[Wank|Wanks]] are usually put here. Obviously a lot of YMMV here. One good "rule of thumb" is if a [[pods:pods|PoD]] necessary to make the outcome plausibly happen is so far in the past that Butterflies would totally negate the very events that created the setting (such as a [=PoD=] to give Hitler the fleet he needed to invade the UK would need to be before WWI, probably negating the rise of Nazism), then it may be a Type IV. ''Note:'' These works are often defined as [[Alien Space Bats]]; in fact the original term "Alien Space Bats" was coined to refer to these type of implausible works ! |
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| **Type X - [[Alien Space Bats]] and Fantastical AH:** In contrast with Type IV, these works are '''deliberately''' designed as pure fantasy, typically following the Rule Of Cool. Some sort of Applied Phlebotinum or Sufficiently Advanced Aliens or Negative Space Wedgie or blatant magic causes a [[pods:pods|PoD]] that completely changes everything. What if [[Worldwar|aliens invade Earth during World War II]]? What if time traveling modern Cherokee give assault rifles to their distant ancestors in 1820? What if the modern island of Manhattan was [[ISOT|time-ported]] to the Mediterranean in Roman times? A sub-type of this rewrites actual history in fantastic terms: what if George Washington's army used nature magic to fight necromantic redcoats? Ironically, many Type X works can become very "Hard" following an initial fantastical [[pods/pods|PoD]], diligently using historical research and Butterflies to see what would logically happen if the Cherokees really did have Kalashnikov assault rifles in 1820. Type X works can be "steered" or "unsteered". | **Type X - [[Alien Space Bats]] and Fantastical AH:** In contrast with Type IV, these works are '''deliberately''' designed as pure fantasy, typically following the Rule Of Cool. Some sort of Applied Phlebotinum or Sufficiently Advanced Aliens or Negative Space Wedgie or blatant magic causes a [[pods:pods|PoD]] that completely changes everything. What if [[Worldwar|aliens invade Earth during World War II]]? What if time traveling modern Cherokee give assault rifles to their distant ancestors in 1820? What if the modern island of Manhattan was [[ISOT|time-ported]] to the Mediterranean in Roman times? A sub-type of this rewrites actual history in fantastic terms: what if George Washington's army used nature magic to fight necromantic redcoats? Ironically, many Type X works can become very "Hard" following an initial fantastical [[pods:pods|PoD]], diligently using historical research and Butterflies to see what would logically happen if the Cherokees really did have Kalashnikov assault rifles in 1820. Type X works can be "steered" or "unsteered". |
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| **Note to tropers:** When posting examples please make a note on how "Hard" the work is after the initial [[pods/pods|PoD]] if the [[pods:pods|PoD]] is the ASB element; for example "after the Negative Space Wedgie moves Manhattan, the rest of the work follows a more Type II or even Type I level of plausibility". | **Note to tropers:** When posting examples please make a note on how "Hard" the work is after the initial [[pods:pods|PoD]] if the [[pods:pods|PoD]] is the ASB element; for example "after the Negative Space Wedgie moves Manhattan, the rest of the work follows a more Type II or even Type I level of plausibility". |
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| Needless to say, the line between the different Types is highly subjective, often depending on an individual's personal interpretations or what historical theory he/she believes. Where history is vague (such as Prehistory) pure creative writing or blatant Ass Pulls might be used. The perception of Type II vs. Type III vs. Type IV in particular can be very much in the eye of the beholder. Furthermore, perceived extreme cases of implausibility in a Type III can lead to cries of ASB ("and what magical fairy gave the Japanese the cargo ships they would have needed to invade Hawaii ?") | Needless to say, the line between the different Types is highly subjective, often depending on an individual's personal interpretations or what historical theory he/she believes. Where history is vague (such as Prehistory) pure creative writing or blatant Ass Pulls might be used. The perception of Type II vs. Type III vs. Type IV in particular can be very much in the eye of the beholder. Furthermore, perceived extreme cases of implausibility in a Type III can lead to cries of ASB ("and what magical fairy gave the Japanese the cargo ships they would have needed to invade Hawaii ?") |
| Also, technology can be a source of debate: Is steampunk a Type III or IV or even X? How realistic is [[Airships|airship passenger travel]] in the year 2001 anyway? Politics enters in as well, with steered AH used to create a utopia based on the creator's personal political/economic views or conversely a dystopia based on opposing views. | Also, technology can be a source of debate: Is steampunk a Type III or IV or even X? How realistic is [[Airships|airship passenger travel]] in the year 2001 anyway? Politics enters in as well, with steered AH used to create a utopia based on the creator's personal political/economic views or conversely a dystopia based on opposing views. |
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| Note that geological [[pods/pods|PoDs]] should be rated by the plausibility of the event. The Iceland volcano erupting ten years earlier is very plausible (probably Type I) while the existence of Atlantis (geologically impossible) is ASB (Type X). Weather [[pods/pods|PoDs]] are harder to gauge considering the [[Butterfly Effect|unpredictability of the weather and its far-reaching effects]], and thus more debatable. | Note that geological [[pods:pods|PoDs]] should be rated by the plausibility of the event. The Iceland volcano erupting ten years earlier is very plausible (probably Type I) while the existence of Atlantis (geologically impossible) is ASB (Type X). Weather [[pods:pods|PoDs]] are harder to gauge considering the [[Butterfly Effect|unpredictability of the weather and its far-reaching effects]], and thus more debatable. |
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| ===Type II : Hard/Soft Alternate History=== | ===Type II : Hard/Soft Alternate History=== |
| * **//The Great War//** trilogy from Turtledove's **[[southern victory|Timeline-191]]** series (the sequel to **//How Few Remain//**). We see some Hard aspects (political Butterflies, Expys of post-[[pods/pods|PoD]] famous people rather than straight appearances) and some Soft elements (European politics and history totally unaffected by the huge divergence in North American events). | * **//The Great War//** trilogy from Turtledove's **[[southern victory|Timeline-191]]** series (the sequel to **//How Few Remain//**). We see some Hard aspects (political Butterflies, Expys of post-[[pods:pods|PoD]] famous people rather than straight appearances) and some Soft elements (European politics and history totally unaffected by the huge divergence in North American events). |
| * **//The Moscow Option//** by David Downing. Seems to have started with Downing wanting to find a way to have the Axis come as close to winning the war as possible, but still lose. To have them outperform their counterparts he usually engages in very realistic Type I style events, all propogating from two changes, one relating to Germany (Hitler is incapacitated for a time and stops interfering with his generals) and one to Japan (they realize the US has broken their code and create a new plan for Midway that exploits this fact), but the success of Germany in particular really stretches their logistical capacity and reserves to unlikely amounts - but it's still enough to be historically plausible even though it isn't the most likely result. | * **//The Moscow Option//** by David Downing. Seems to have started with Downing wanting to find a way to have the Axis come as close to winning the war as possible, but still lose. To have them outperform their counterparts he usually engages in very realistic Type I style events, all propogating from two changes, one relating to Germany (Hitler is incapacitated for a time and stops interfering with his generals) and one to Japan (they realize the US has broken their code and create a new plan for Midway that exploits this fact), but the success of Germany in particular really stretches their logistical capacity and reserves to unlikely amounts - but it's still enough to be historically plausible even though it isn't the most likely result. |
| * The **//Lion's Heart//** duology by Steven Barnes. An inversion of historical European dominance and enslavement of Africans, creating a world where African Masters keep European slaves on North American plantations. Pretty much every culture that "Cryptohistory" assumes could have colonized America does. **Note**: In reality most of them couldn't or wouldn't have even with the novels' butterflies, but the novel does show some hard allohistorical trends and [[Butterfly Effect|butterflies]]. | * The **//Lion's Heart//** duology by Steven Barnes. An inversion of historical European dominance and enslavement of Africans, creating a world where African Masters keep European slaves on North American plantations. Pretty much every culture that "Cryptohistory" assumes could have colonized America does. **Note**: In reality most of them couldn't or wouldn't have even with the novels' butterflies, but the novel does show some hard allohistorical trends and [[Butterfly Effect|butterflies]]. |
| * Geologic [[pods/pods|PoD]] example: Turtledove's **//Down in the Bottomlands//** where the Mediterranean sea is dry desert. Geologically plausible [[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Messinian_salinity_crisis|since it happened periodically in history]] Major climactic and cultural butterflies, including the continued existence of Neanderthal Man. Arguably Type I. | * Geologic [[pods:pods|PoD]] example: Turtledove's **//Down in the Bottomlands//** where the Mediterranean sea is dry desert. Geologically plausible [[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Messinian_salinity_crisis|since it happened periodically in history]] Major climactic and cultural butterflies, including the continued existence of Neanderthal Man. Arguably Type I. |
| * Robert Graves' historical fiction fit firmly into this category. They are extremely well researched but he willfully changes or distorts events and personalities to tell the story he wishes to tell. Fact and Fiction are often so well blended, especially in regard to events(far less so with characterization) that you pretty much have to be an expert in the subject matter to tell the two apart or to know that events that went a, b, c, d in real life go b, d, a, c in the novel. | * Robert Graves' historical fiction fit firmly into this category. They are extremely well researched but he willfully changes or distorts events and personalities to tell the story he wishes to tell. Fact and Fiction are often so well blended, especially in regard to events(far less so with characterization) that you pretty much have to be an expert in the subject matter to tell the two apart or to know that events that went a, b, c, d in real life go b, d, a, c in the novel. |
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| ===Type IV : Utterly Implausible Alternate History=== | ===Type IV : Utterly Implausible Alternate History=== |
| * Another Turtledove geologic example: The **//Atlantis//** series, where the North American east coast is a large island. While geologically somewhat plausible the [[pods/pods|PoD]] could arguably Butterfly the existence of Humans. Plus the implausible parallelism of the history itself. | * Another Turtledove geologic example: The **//Atlantis//** series, where the North American east coast is a large island. While geologically somewhat plausible the [[pods:pods|PoD]] could arguably Butterfly the existence of Humans. Plus the implausible parallelism of the history itself. |
| * Turtledove's **//Days of Infamy//**. Japan invading Hawaii (considered logistically impossible) pushes this story to Type IV in many minds. | * Turtledove's **//Days of Infamy//**. Japan invading Hawaii (considered logistically impossible) pushes this story to Type IV in many minds. |
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| * The 2006 mockumentary **//CSA : [[Confederate States]] of America//**, where the South not only wins but takes over the whole of the Union ! Few take the history seriously, including the creator himself, since it was designed as a satire of race relations in the US rather than an accurate counter-factual representation of a southern victory world. | * The 2006 mockumentary **//CSA : [[Confederate States]] of America//**, where the South not only wins but takes over the whole of the Union ! Few take the history seriously, including the creator himself, since it was designed as a satire of race relations in the US rather than an accurate counter-factual representation of a southern victory world. |
| * Another obligatory [[Harry Turtledove]] example: The **//[[Worldwar]]//** series. [[The Race|Lizards]] from outer space invade during World War II and the Axis and Allies must set aside their differences to save Earth from alien conquest! Interestingly quite Hard AH after that, at least in the first books (Type I or II), but like many Turtledove works starts to Soften as the series advances until being Type III to IV by the last books). | * Another obligatory [[Harry Turtledove]] example: The **//[[Worldwar]]//** series. [[The Race|Lizards]] from outer space invade during World War II and the Axis and Allies must set aside their differences to save Earth from alien conquest! Interestingly quite Hard AH after that, at least in the first books (Type I or II), but like many Turtledove works starts to Soften as the series advances until being Type III to IV by the last books). |
| * **//The [[Guns Of The South]]//** by [[Harry Turtledove]]: Time-traveling [[Afrikaners|South African Neo-Nazis]] bring Robert E. Lee's army AK-47 assault rifles. Only a stand-alone book (so it's hard to predict long-term trends), but seems to go Type I after the [[pods/pods|PoD]]. | * **//The [[Guns Of The South]]//** by [[Harry Turtledove]]: Time-traveling [[Afrikaners|South African Neo-Nazis]] bring Robert E. Lee's army AK-47 assault rifles. Only a stand-alone book (so it's hard to predict long-term trends), but seems to go Type I after the [[pods:pods|PoD]]. |
| * [[S. M. Stirling]]'s **//[[Island in the Sea of Time]]//** series, wherein the contemporary island of Nantucket is [[ISOT|time-ported]] back to the Bronze Age. Somewhat Soft after the [[pods/pods|PoD]] (Type II), since like most of Stirling's work, it follows Rule Of Cool. | * [[S. M. Stirling]]'s **//[[Island in the Sea of Time]]//** series, wherein the contemporary island of Nantucket is [[ISOT|time-ported]] back to the Bronze Age. Somewhat Soft after the [[pods:pods|PoD]] (Type II), since like most of Stirling's work, it follows Rule Of Cool. |
| * Eric Flint's **//[[163x|Ring Of Fire]]//** series where a West Virginia coal town is [[ISOT|time-and-space-ported]] to Germany in the middle of the 30 Years War. Very meticulously Hard after the [[pods/pods|PoD]] (Type I). | * Eric Flint's **//[[163x|Ring Of Fire]]//** series where a West Virginia coal town is [[ISOT|time-and-space-ported]] to Germany in the middle of the 30 Years War. Very meticulously Hard after the [[pods:pods|PoD]] (Type I). |
| * **//Heirs Of Alexandria//** by Mercedes Lackey, Eric Flint, and Dave Freer, but due to the large scale of the change, introducing magic, and how long ago it happened, probably a type II (Hard/Soft Alternate History) when the series start, mainly due to good research. | * **//Heirs Of Alexandria//** by Mercedes Lackey, Eric Flint, and Dave Freer, but due to the large scale of the change, introducing magic, and how long ago it happened, probably a type II (Hard/Soft Alternate History) when the series start, mainly due to good research. |
| * **//The Tales Of Alvin Maker//** by Orson Scott Card : A retelling of the story of Mormonism founder Joseph Smith in a North America Mirror Universe where magic is real. | * **//The Tales Of Alvin Maker//** by Orson Scott Card : A retelling of the story of Mormonism founder Joseph Smith in a North America Mirror Universe where magic is real. |
