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| alternate_history:butterfly_effect [2018/07/13 11:30] – [The Three Approaches] max_sinister | alternate_history:butterfly_effect [2023/07/13 04:56] (current) – [Example timelines] max_sinister |
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| One important factor in that is that as soon as the Butterfly effect takes hold (varying on approach, see below), people now born will not be the same person as OTL (though they may have the same name), because even if the parents should still meet, the chance of the same sperm meeting the same egg is infinitesimal. This is also one of the points of controversy between the approaches, again see below. | One important factor in that is that as soon as the Butterfly effect takes hold (varying on approach, see below), people now born will not be the same person as OTL (though they may have the same name), because even if the parents should still meet, the chance of the same sperm meeting the same egg is infinitesimal. This is also one of the points of controversy between the approaches, again see below. |
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| The name derives from a famous example used in chaos theory: The idea that a butterfly flapping its wings in Europe can later cause a devasting storm in China - as it will create a tiny wind current, which will go on to upset larger and larger wind movements all over the world. Six months later, the timeline where the butterfly flapped its wings has stormy weather, while the one where it didn't is sunny. Of course, the flap may also prevent a storm that otherwise would have happened... | The name derives from a famous example used in chaos theory: The idea that a butterfly flapping its wings in Europe can later cause a devastating storm in China - as it will create a tiny wind current, which will go on to upset larger and larger wind movements all over the world. Six months later, the timeline where the butterfly flapped its wings has stormy weather, while the one where it didn't is sunny. Of course, the flap may also prevent a storm that otherwise would have happened... |
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| | The foundation of chaos theory was found by Edward Norton Lorenz in 1963 when, rather than starting a weather simulation at the beginning, he started it midway through using the numbers on a printout which were rounded to three figures after the decimal point. That small difference was enough to produce totally different results by the time the new program had reached the point where the old one ended. |
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| | Fiction has had similar ideas even earlier, though: [[https://www.scaryforkids.com/a-sound-of-thunder/|Ray Bradbury's story "A Sound of Thunder"]] predicted something like this as early as 1952, BTW. [[https://www.projekt-gutenberg.org/schnitzl/3warnung/3warnung.html|"Die dreifache Warnung" (1911) by Arthur Schnitzler]] was even quicker, though, as [[offtopic:Max Sinister|Max Sinister]] discovered. Interestingly, both stories use butterflies. |
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| ==== Reasons for employing a particular approach ==== | ==== Reasons for employing a particular approach ==== |
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| Reasons for such a liberal, or at least a moderate approach can be found in literature and writing stories: Henry VIII on an airship is more exciting than English King You've Never Heard Of on an airship. Alternate History //in stories// works much better if the reader can spot familar themes - people, nations or events. That is also why the liberal approach is so well liked in popular literature. And of course it is easier to write a timeline if you do not have to worry how history goes in those parts you do not focus on, as you can simply assumes it goes as per OTL. On the other hand, as the namesgiving example of chaos theory tells, changes anywhere on the world can have effects anywhere else, so the fundamentalist approach, or at least a strict moderate approach can be seen as more realistic, hence timelines aiming for that usually employ such an approach. Also, it allows to shift focus to different regions of the world, so timelines with the aim of completist coverage of the world also tend towards that. | Reasons for such a liberal, or at least a moderate approach can be found in literature and writing stories: Henry VIII on an [[airships|airship]] is more exciting than English King You've Never Heard Of on an airship. Alternate History //in stories// works much better if the reader can spot familiar themes - people, nations or events. That is also why the liberal approach is so well liked in popular literature. And of course it is easier to write a timeline if you do not have to worry how history goes in those parts you do not focus on, as you can simply assumes it goes as per OTL. On the other hand, as the namesgiving example of chaos theory tells, changes anywhere on the world can have effects anywhere else, so the fundamentalist approach, or at least a strict moderate approach can be seen as more realistic, hence timelines aiming for that usually employ such an approach. Also, it allows to shift focus to different regions of the world, so timelines with the aim of completist coverage of the world also tend towards that. |
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| ==== Example timelines ==== | ==== Example timelines ==== |
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| __Fundamentalist approach:__ **//[[timelines:Decades of Darkness]]//** | __Fundamentalist approach:__ **//[[timelines:How many sixes does Adolf Nazi have to roll]]?//** (well, that's the plan), Niall Ferguson's "Virtual History – Alternatives and Counterfactuals" |
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| | __Between fundamentalist and moderate approach:__ **//[[timelines:Decades of Darkness]]//** |
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| __Moderate approach:__ **//[[timelines:The Guns of the Tawantinsuya]]//** | __Moderate approach:__ **//[[timelines:The Guns of the Tawantinsuya]]//** |
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| __Liberal approach:__ Most strikingly, the [[http://en.memory-alpha.org/wiki/Mirror_universe|Mirror Universe]] of the //[[offtopic:Star Trek]]// franchise. | __Liberal approach:__ Most strikingly, the [[https://memory-alpha.fandom.com/wiki/Mirror_universe|Mirror Universe]] of the //[[offtopic:Star Trek]]// franchise. |
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| ==== See Also ==== | ==== See Also ==== |
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| The **[[alternate_history:Citroen DS Incident]]**, the antithesis of the **Butterfly Effect**. | The **[[Citroen DS Incident]]**, the antithesis of the **Butterfly Effect**. |
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| **[[https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/general-theory-of-alternate-history.419419/|General Theory of Alternate History]]** - A discussion by various AH.commers further ruminating on the topic. | **[[https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/general-theory-of-alternate-history.419419/|General Theory of Alternate History]]** - A discussion by various AH.commers further ruminating on the topic. |
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| **[[https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/what-to-do-about-butterflies.422967/|What to do about butterflies ?]]** - Discussion on handling the butterfly effect narrativelly (via butterfly nets or similar solutions), in order to avoid things becoming too complex or too ambitious to cover by one author in a reasonable amount of time. | **[[https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/what-to-do-about-butterflies.422967/|What to do about butterflies ?]]** - Discussion on handling the butterfly effect narratively (via butterfly nets or similar solutions), in order to avoid things becoming too complex or too ambitious to cover by one author in a reasonable amount of time. |
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| | **[[https://forum.sealionpress.co.uk/index.php?threads/how-many-sixes-does-adolf-nazi-have-to-roll.4919/page-2#post-1046054|About the Butterfly Effect]]** - Comment at [[offtopic:Sea Lion Press]] |
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| | **[[https://althistory.fandom.com/wiki/Alternative_History:Butterfly_Effect|The page about it]] on the English [[Althist Fandom wiki]]. ([[https://althistory.fandom.com/de/wiki/Schmetterlingseffekt|German version]])** |
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| **[[alternate history:alternate history|Alternate History Topics Section Main Directory]]** | **[[alternate history:alternate history|Alternate History Topics Section Main Directory]]** |
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