Zhirinovsky's Russian Empire

[Pellegrino]

By the way, how did the 1998-200 Eritrean–Ethiopian War turn out ATL? OTL it seems Ukraine providing more assistance to Eritrea while Russia was providing more assistance to Ehtiopia:

http://www.acig.info/CMS/?option=com_content&task=view&id=138&Itemid=47 (start reading at “Eritrean Problems” to learn about Ukraine’s involvment)

http://perrya.hubpages.com/hub/How-the-Ukraine-Cashed-In-on-the-Ethiopia-Eritrean-War-1999

So with Russia and Ukraine both part of the UIS and this also being the time when the “Russian Foreign Legion” is being formed, how would the conflict turn out?

i hope Ethiopia retains Eritrea and its access to the sea...

Do you have plans for Sudan? Will the UIS support the Sudan People's Liberation Movement North as a way to further weaken Sudan? I can imagine since the UIS is anti Muslim they will use the opportunity to weakened Bashir's regime. However that would clash with China since they back Bashir. If Sudan loses south Sudan along with the Blue Nile and South Kordofan we could see Bashir at a weakened state. Today the war is sapping Sudan resources and manpower and they can defeat it. If in the early and mid 2000s the UIS back the South Sudan rebles with Russian Foreign Legion fighters or with heavy weaponry like anti tank and MANPADs. I have no love for Omar Bashir and maybe your planned Arab Spring could bring him down so the people of Sudan can be free. Anyway great update.

Here is a little update on what I considered for doing in the region in the past. I don't think we will see an update on the region, so I don't mind posting this as a sort of guide as to what "may" be happening. Now keep in mind, this has not been properly developed so do not consider this canonical.

At some point in the 1990s the UIS recognizes the independence of Somaliland.

Ethiopia and Eritrea go to blows sometime in the 1990s. Unlike OTL's war, which was mostly fought over a disputed border, this war sees Ethiopia invade Eritrea and occupy most of the southern parts of the country.

South Sudan is able (with UIS help) to drive the Sudanese out. However, the country is called Equatoria. (*this is canon)

Now what might have happened next was the formation of a UIS bloc in the horn. Equatoria, Ethiopia, and Somaliland form a mini Warsaw Pact under the wing of the UIS.

Saudi Arabia now feels deeply threatened as you have a UIS client state in Dubai and a UIS client state in the horn of Africa. They openly support Somali and Eritrean freedom fighters/terrorist (depending on who you talk to) and this causes an escalation of tension in the region.

Before long Arab mujahedeen are clashing with Ethiopian troops in occupied Eritrea. The United States and UN move to bring forth a ceasefire.

Somaliland claims to have been "betrayed" by the UN since the UN does not make recognition of their independence a term of this peace and they invite the UIS to open a military base near the border of Djibouti. This is claimed to be in response to the "Saudi sponsored piracy in the region".

Now Israel is in an uproar, fearful that the UIS could now close the Red Sea if the "need" arose, much like how Iran shut down the Persian Gulf.

Somaliland makes a claim on Puntland, which has declared independence from Somalia.

Now keep in mind, these were just basic ideas that I didn't have the time to flesh out. There may be issues with some of these that an expert on Ethiopia or Sudan could recognize. I didn't have the time to fully research or develop this. But these were some ideas I had about the region in TTL.

 

[Pellegrino]

Hi pellegrino, will we ever find out who took out Yeltsin and why they did it?

Also do you think it was the hard liner?

Who do you think did it?

 

[AnywhereButOTL]

Who do you think did it?

Lebed of course. Lebed is behind EVERYTHING...

 

[James G]

Lebed of course. Lebed is behind EVERYTHING...

Mister Putin, the BBC does not believe you there...

 

[St. Just]

Shouldn't it be Equatoria?

 

[Pellegrino]

Shouldn't it be Equatoria?

Yes, you are correct. Good catch Tsar!

 

[Belle Epocque]

What about those guys :

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Front_for_the_Liberation_of_the_Enclave_of_Cabinda

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UNITA


Also I have some idea. You mentioned in prologue that Zhirinovsky became Supreme Commander of UIS Armed Forces in 1997. OTL Tudman was declared Vrhovnik an wore uniform modelled on the uniform of Josip Broz Tito.

http://media.economist.com/sites/default/files/cf_images/19991218/1ob.jpg

So what about crazy Volodya get title of generalissimus and wearing white Stalin like uniform?

http://ciekawostkihistoryczne.pl/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/stalin-poczdam.jpg

We already have precedens. OTL Brezhnev delcarecd himself Marshall of USSR
http://sekondtime.files.wordpress.com/2011/08/brezhnev-military-uniform.jpg

O, and dont foreget Lukashenko:

http://jesusfuck.me/di/Q4GF/kolya-military-uniform.jpg

 

[Pellegrino]

PART ONE HUNDRED AND THIRTY SIX: THE E-30 INCIDENT

PART ONE HUNDRED AND THIRTY SIX: THE E-30 INCIDENT

Some new names in this update:

Ashgabat, Turkmenistan:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ashgabat

A Connecticut Yankee in King Arthur’s Court:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Connecticut_Yankee_in_King_Arthur's_Court

M113 APC:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M113_armored_personnel_carrier

Elhanan Tannenbaum
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elhanan_Tannenbaum

Incirlik Air Base:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Incirlik_Air_Base

Pashtunwali:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pashtunwali

Kunduz, Afghanistan:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Konduz

Jamie Farr:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jamie_Farr

_______________________________________________________________

UIS backed Northern Alliance troops poised to seize Taliban stronghold in northern Afghanistan while NATO still debates “best route into Russia”



The London Times

November 7, 2001

(MAZAR-I-SHARIF) – In a sharp contrast to the first Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in December of 1979, UIS troops crossed the border from the UIS Republic of Uzbekistan today after a nearly three weeks bombing campaign of Taliban positions around the predominantly Tajik city of Mazar-I-Sharif. The UIS troops, estimated to number around 8,000, appeared to be almost exclusively Tajik and Uzbek in nationality. Perhaps most notably, no UIS flags could be seen on their uniforms, and many described themselves as “jihadist” fighting alongside their “ethnic brothers”.

“For too long we watched as our brothers in Islam were massacred by the ISI,” one UIS soldier said in Uzbek, “but we are here to end the persecution of our brothers and sisters and to tell the Pakistanis that Afghanistan will be the graveyard of another foreign army.”

The troops, many riding on UIS T-80 tanks, waved Afghan flags while prominently displaying large banners featuring Northern Alliance leaders Ahmad Shah Massoud and
Abdul Rashid Dostum.

“The UIS is not here to relive the catastrophic war that destroyed the Soviet Union,” on Tajik speaking UIS soldier said as he waved to a crowd of cheering civilians, “they are hear for one reason only: for badal.”

The word can be frequently heard by UIS troops and even politicians in Moscow. In an interview on Russian television, UIS Vice President Alexander Lebed said that the UIS would seeks “badal” against the “puppet regime of Islamabad” and that that they would do so through the unconditional support of the Northern Alliance.

Badal is a Pastun word that is often associated with the Afghan ethical code of conduct, referred to as Pashtunwali. It roughly translates into “revenge.”

Reports of Taliban forces fleeing Mazir-I-Sharif

The relentless bombing campaign, coupled with the resent assault by forces loyal to Abdul Rashid Dostum, appears to have broken Taliban resistance in the city, with reports of Taliban forces retreating to the Taliban stronghold of Kunduz approximately 100 kilometers to the east. Kunduz, which unlike Mazir-I-Sharif is predominantly Pashtun, has repealed several assaults by troops loyal to Ahmad Shah Massoud in the last two weeks. However, it was feared that the bombing campaign has badly degraded the defenses in Kunduz and it is widely feared that if Kunduz falls that the UIS could have an open path to Kabul. Several international observers have expressed concern over the possibility of UIS troops seizing Kabul before NATO and UN troops arrive in the country.

No agreement between Poland and US regarding transport

NATO forces in Stuttgart continue to wait as NATO attempts to reach a compromise on the use of Polish territory in transporting troops to Afghanistan. Over 6,000 troops are currently awaiting orders in Stuttgart Germany, with over 3,000 awaiting orders near Incirlik Air Base in Turkey. Although the UIS has technically opened its border to US and NATO troops, it has thus far only opened two actual border crossings: one near the city of Brest in the UIS Republic of Belarus and one near the town of Margara in the UIS Republic of Armenia. Several international observers believe that the UIS is attempting to “force NATO’s hand” by only opening the borders between Turkey and Poland.

“Both Turkey and Poland have rejected the terms of the Crawford Accord,” commented Paul Thorne, a British embassy advisor in Poland, “and both nations have refused to lift sanctions on the UIS or open the border between their nation and the UIS. This is clearly an attempt to force the Americans into doing Zhirinovsky’s dirty work. If the Poles relent and allow NATO troops to cross their country and use this closed border, it would be tantamount to admitting defeat. Not to mention it will make the Polish government looks like they are unable to stand up to President Bush.”

Although Slovakia has an open border with the UIS and has already given NATO permission to transport troops across the country, UIS President Vladimir Zhirinovsky has indicated that the Ukrainian government has yet to approve the use of Ukrainian territory for NATO troop movements. It is estimated that only 2,000 of the planned 12,500 UN and NATO peacekeepers have been deployed, with approximately 600 American troops, all of which who arrived by air, now in Dushanbe. British Prime Minister Tony Blair indicated that, although the United Kingdom would not oppose a “limited reduction of sanctions on the UIS” that British soldiers would “not take part in any operation that required cooperation with the Zhirinovsky regime.” It is currently estimated that 500 British troops are currently stationed in Iran and will be flying into Afghanistan as soon as NATO troops have secured an airfield.
______________________________________________________________


Excerpts from the book “Teflon Tony: The Rise and Fall (and Rise) of Tony Blair”
By Richard Chandler
Published by Politika Books © 2012

Chapter 10:

By November 10th Prime Minister Blair was nearly in a panic as the Poles and Turks continued to refuse NATO’s demands that they open up the border with the UIS. Regarding himself as the “voice of reason”, Blair could see that the growing anger at Poland and Turkey threatened to destroy the fragile coalition, and even NATO itself.

“By now President Bush was furious,” former Blair aid Ann Watson recalled,
“he began using more and more incendiary terms when describing the obstinate position of the Poles and Turks, even going so far to declar that Poland and Turkey was ‘either with us or with the terrorists.’”

Blair recognized that the posturing from the US President was only complicating the matter and called on Bush to “tone down the rhetoric.”

“The Prime Minister recognized in time either the UIS would fold or the Poles would fold,” Watson added, “and the best way to let that happen would be to do so through quiet diplomacy. Calling the Polish government collaborators with Al Qaeda only complicated matters.”

Blair also tried to use his position of influence with President Bush to pressure him into reconsidering his position regarding Iran. Although the Second Islamic Republic indicating a strong willingness to cooperate with the joint UIS-US operation, they indicated that it would be politically unfeasible to do so without receiving some concessions from the United States. Iranian President Mohammad Khatami suggested a statement of support from President Bush recognizing Palestinian independence and a return to pre-1967 borders as well as a promise that the United States would declassify Hezbollah from the list of designated terrorist organizations.

“The Prime Minister recognized that this was a starting point,” Watson added, “He recognized that the Iranians were willing to negotiate with each of these prerequisites. But President Bush saw these as completely untenable, both politically and practically.”

Although Iran had taken steps to pressure Hezbollah to “demilitarize” and to “work within the system” as President Khatami famously said, Hezbollah had already expressed deep anger over what they saw as the lack of a viable partner from either Israel or the United States.

“Hezbollah unilaterally turned over captured Israeli Colonel Elhanan Tannenbaum as well as the bodies of three Israeli soldiers killed near the Sheba Farms in July of 2001,” Watson said, “and the only reason they did so was because they were assured by Khatami that such a move would pay significant dividends in the near future. But Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon refused to even discuss a unilateral Israeli prisoner release.”

Although Iran agreed to allow NATO and UN peacekeepers access to airfields inside of Iran for use as refueling stations, the perceived hard nosed stance from President Bush led President Khatami to refuse the United States access to Iranian territory as part of an invasion.

“Khatami was desperate to get rid of the Taliban,” Watson added, “but not at the expense of risking a coup. His control over the hardliners was still tenuous inside of Iran.”

On the afternoon of November 10th the impasse reached a boiling point after UIS backed rebels of the Northern Alliance seized the city of Mazir-I-Sharif, expelling the remaining Taliban holdouts. The image of UIS troops driving into the Afghan city infuriated President Bush, who regarded the impasse as a tremendous blow to American prestige.

“Bush saw the fall of Mazir-I-Sharif to UIS troops to be a public relations disaster for the American government,” Watson recalled, “to many Americans it looked like the Russians were doing the job alone while President Bush was forced to beg his so called allies to let American troops use their roads. It looked like the UIS was all about getting the job done while the United States was sitting around arguing about how the job should be done.”

After an intense round of negotiations, Prime Minister Blair finally was able to negotiate a compromise. The Poles were finally pressured to the point of breaking. On November 11th, two months after the terrorist attack on Washington, New York, and Ohio, Poland relented and agreed to allow the border between their country and the UIS to be opened on Highway E30 near the city of Belarus. But to the shock of the American military, they were soon to discover that nobody in the UIS bothered to clear the move with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko.

____________________________________________________________


UIS Presidential Candidate Vladimir Putin in an interview with the BBC on August 1, 2011.

Discussing the E-30 incident at the Polish-Belarusian border on November 12, 2001


BBC: Mr. Putin, you claimed that the impasse over NATO entrance into UIS territory had less to do with Vladimir Zhirinovsky forcing Poland’s hand, but rather it was about forcing Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko to yield to the central government in Moscow.

Putin: Correct. Belarus was still hostile territory to the Liberal Democrats, and Vladimir Zhirinovsky still regarded Lukashenko as a threat to national unity. Lukashenko was no longer interested in becoming leader of the UIS; by 2001 he was looking for an excuse to leave the Union of Independent States before people started disappearing in Minsk much like they had across the rest of the country.

BBC: I don’t understand. If the Belarusian President was looking to leave the UIS, why provoke him? It seems like forcing him to accept American troops in his country was a sure fire way to provoke him.

Putin: it was a provocation to be sure. But how could Lukashenko declare independence under such a situation? Sure he could have, but it was becoming clear the George Bush was going to regard anyone who didn’t bend to his every demand to be a terrorist collaborator. President Bush would have made sure that no country would recognize Belarusian independence, and then Alexander Lebed would have had the excuse to send the ATU-FPF into Belarus and purge Minsk of the communists. He would have had the perfect excuse and the world would have turned a blind eye.

BBC: What excuse was that?

Putin: The excuse that Lukashenko was opposed to our troops fighting in Afghanistan. They were fighting and dying and were waiting for support from the Americans, but Alexander Lukashenko refused to let the Americans troops come and back up our boys because of politics. What better way to destroy a politician than to claim that he opposed our fighting troops in Afghanistan?

BBC: So Lebed and Zhirinovsky expected Lukashenko to fold?

Putin: Clearly they did. And if he didn’t then they had the “proof” that Lukashenko hated democracy and needed to be removed from office. But Lukashenko surprised them by doing something nobody expected.

BBC: What was that?

Putin: He took them to Court.

______________________________________________________________

“Former American soldier recounts his experience as the first US soldier to enter the UIS since the Russian revolution


September 1, 2006

Interviewer’s notes:

Der Spiegel interview with former US Marine Corporal DaVarryl Hendricks

Der Spiegel: Mr. Hendricks, you were part of the first unit of Americans to cross the border into the former Soviet Union on November 12th, 2001. What was that trip like?

DaVarryl Hendricks: It was very…weird. We had been sitting in Stuttgart for over six weeks waiting to get permission to move, and then all of a sudden we were told that we were moving out in fifteen minutes.

DS: Were troops angry at the Poles for their refusal to let you in the country?

DH: We were just pissed in general. We were pissed at the UN, we were pissed at NATO, we were pissed at the Poles, we were pissed at our government, and we were pissed at the UIS.

DS: Why were you angry at the American government?

DH: Because they were playing games, just like the Russians. There are hundreds of places in Europe we could have crossed the crossed the border into the UIS, but we had to find some border crossing that wouldn’t piss anyone off. The Romanians weren’t going to let us use their border since they claimed the UIS occupied part of their country. Fine, you don’t want to help us, no problem. The Hungarians in the western part of your country don’t have a problem letting us drive through, so fuck you then. But we were told no. After Romania told us to go screw ourselves, we had to bend over and kiss our own ass and not do anything to “anger” them. So now we are looking at Poland, and then they start screwing with us too.

DS: So you think the UIS was less at fault for the delay than Poland and Romanian?

DH: No, they were playing games too. The Slovaks told us we could use their country, but the UIS told us no. And when we tried to fly troops and supplies into Dushanbe the Russians were fucking with us about flight clearance and shit. We could have flown all 12,000 troops into Dushanbe, along with the supplies, but after two weeks there were only 600 American troops in the UIS, and almost none of the heavy equipment. It was all a game to them. Some of the transports made over a dozen stops before they reached Dushanbe, and most of the time it was to meet some World War II veteran and to take a picture with the mayor.

DS: These stops proved to be a tremendous public relations boon for both sides.

DH: It was a waste of time. We needed to get to Dushanbe as soon as possible, not sit in some Russian VFW hall listing to people bullshit about “a new era of friendship”.

DS: When did you realize that there was a problem with the E-30 border crossing?

DH: Pretty much as soon as we got to the border. It was the middle of the night and we were all sort of scared. We didn’t know what to expect, and we had been briefed about the shit that went down at the US embassy in 1992 in Moscow. We were told that if we met heavy resistance we couldn’t expect to be rescued and would have to fund out own way back to the nearest international border! I mean seriously, depending on where you are in Russia the nearest international border could be over 10,000 fucking miles away! We really didn’t know what to expect. But when we got to the border we knew it would be bad.

DS: Why?

DH: There were these cop cars all lined up and some douche bag standing like George Fucking Wallace in front of a podium at the border. I remember my Captain looking over at me and saying “Ah fuck, this can’t be good.”

DS: What happened next?

DH: Apparently we walked into the middle of a fucking domestic dispute. Some Colonel with the UIS military was arguing with the fucking douche bag in a bad suit and screaming at him. Another Colonel was screaming at the other Colonel and both were waiving their guns at each other. I swear it was like an episode of Cops, only with more teeth and less mullets.

DS: What did the Americans do?

DH: You got to realize, this was motherfucking sensory overload. It was dark and quiet, and all of a sudden you have all these news cameras from all over the world flashing lights on us. We came to a stop and all these people start rushing towards us with cameras while these two motherfuckers across the border are arguing with guns. The Captain then stepped out of the APC and walks towards the border.

DS: Did he know what was going on?

DH: Well, the reporters were screaming questions at him that sort of explained everything. They asked him if he was aware that the Belarusian President had filed a temporary injunction with the Supreme Court of the Union of Independent States, arguing that the right to the use of the roadways in the Republic of Belarus was exclusively that of the Belarusian people. They were asking if NATO had filed a permit with the Belarusian government requesting permission to use their roads as the federal government did not have jurisdiction over the roads in Belarus or some bullshit. Then the Cap’ looked up and saw this guy talking in front of some cameras while waving a copy of the temporary injunction singed by some Judge.

DS: What did the Captain do?

DH: He was cool man; he just smiled and said he thought that all the arraignments had been made in Crawford. Then the pissed off Colonel pushed over the podium and screamed something in Russian. I guess he told them to open the gate. He then turned to the Cap’ and barked in broken English ‘You come now!’

DS: What did the Captain do?

DH: He started to wave the convoy forward when that crazy Russian kid almost started a fucking firefight.

DS: You mean Private Andrei Sharapau?

DH: Yeah. That kid started spraying gunfire over our heads. It was crazy. That was the last thing I expected. Literally the entire world’s media is present and that motherfucking kid starts shooting over everyone’s head screaming ‘nyet!’ I remember all these journalist start dropping their cameras as they run for cover. It was crazy, because I heard the word “shit” screamed in over thirty languages at once at that moment.

DS: you are aware that Sharapau has emerged as something of a celebrity in the UIS?

DH: Yeah, I was told that. He sells some sort of magic carpet cleaner on late night Russian infomercials or something. I guess in Russian he is referred to as the Belarusian Jamie Farr. I’m not sure how that isn’t an insult, but I guess in Russia it isn’t. But that kid was no hero. He was fucking terrified. I looked over at him and saw him crying. I realized that he was scared shitless. Either the Belarusians would kill him for letting the Americans in or the Russians would kill him for keeping the Americans out. Poor kid. I couldn’t imagine how fucked up that must have been for him.

DS: What did the Captain do?

DH: You know I always liked the Captain. He was from the same neighborhood as me in East St. Louis and sort of took me under his wing. But man, I never was as impressed as I was when that kid started shooting. He just stood their and smiled, never raised his gun, and then just turned his back to him and took a knee. Cap’ just took a knee and held up his hand and told us to stop. Once the kid got his shit under control he stood up, turned to the George Wallace motherfucker and then smiled and said ‘it seems like there are some unresolved issues that still need to be addressed. We’ll come back some other time.’

DS: Is that when you received the order to go to Ukraine instead?


DH: Yeah. To be honest, that pissed us off more. It took the Russians less than five minutes to get us clearance to enter Ukraine after telling us for weeks that we were not allowed in the Republic. But almost immediately the convoy headed south on Highway 816, about fifty miles, towards the tiny Ukrainian village of Zabuzhzhya.

 

[Pellegrino]

What about those guys :

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Front_for_the_Liberation_of_the_Enclave_of_Cabinda

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UNITA


Also I have some idea. You mentioned in prologue that Zhirinovsky became Supreme Commander of UIS Armed Forces in 1997. OTL Tudman was declared Vrhovnik an wore uniform modelled on the uniform of Josip Broz Tito.

http://media.economist.com/sites/default/files/cf_images/19991218/1ob.jpg

So what about crazy Volodya get title of generalissimus and wearing white Stalin like uniform?

http://ciekawostkihistoryczne.pl/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/stalin-poczdam.jpg

We already have precedens. OTL Brezhnev delcarecd himself Marshall of USSR
http://sekondtime.files.wordpress.com/2011/08/brezhnev-military-uniform.jpg

O, and dont foreget Lukashenko:

http://jesusfuck.me/di/Q4GF/kolya-military-uniform.jpg

You know, I hadn't really considered what is going on in Angola. I really do not know, might need to look into that some.

And I found a few pics of Z-man in colorful military uniforms. I may need to find a way to work these into the TL as well!

 

[HesitatedEye]

For some reason that late night carpet cleaning ad I'm gonna imagine is him waving around that AK-47 around with a dozen women in this

behind him and he's a very rich man. Interesting update

 

[EternalCynic]

What's life like at the Eastern European section of the US State Department? The US getting outmaneuvered and humiliated constantly by Zhirinovsky must not be boosting morale among the US government's Russia experts.

 

[Pellegrino]

For some reason that late night carpet cleaning ad I'm gonna imagine is him waving around that AK-47 around with a dozen women in this

behind him and he's a very rich man. Interesting update

Haha, I can see that! I sort of pictured the Sham-Wow guy as well.

 

[Pellegrino]

What's life like at the Eastern European section of the US State Department? The US getting outmaneuvered and humiliated constantly by Zhirinovsky must not be boosting morale among the US government's Russia experts.

For as crazy as this was, keep in mind that it was the UIS that ended up with the most egg on their face over this debacle at the Belarusian border. Firing at (or near) hundreds of foreign journalist all while it is abundantly clear that nobody knows who really controls the border makes the UIS look like a borderline Somalia, and was not the image they wanted to convey to the world. That is probably why they quickly back peddled and let the a American troops in through Ukraine.

And though Zhirinovsky thinks he's pulling a fast one on the Americans lets also remember that although Bush goes down in history as a disastrous president, he is a somewhat well liked ex president. I would sort of compare him perhaps to Jimmy Carter in a small way in TTL (Carter was seen by many as a flawed president but a very likable ex president). So while Bush is painting portraits of his dog At his ranch in Crawford in TTL, Zhirinovsky (and Chirac) end up in prison.

The State Department probably regard this whole affair as similar to getting a dislocated shoulder put back in its socket. It's going to hurt. It's going to suck bad. But there is really no way to make it "not suck." The best thing to do at this point is to bite into a stick and try and get it over with as soon as possible.

 

[Dragun]

“For too long we watched as our brothers in Islam were massacred by the ISI,” one UIS soldier said in Uzbek...

After reading this line I got a "you're f***ing kidding me" look. Either that I am missing something after UIS started its anti-Islamic streak, or just trying to get good PR points.

 

[yourworstnightmare]

“For too long we watched as our brothers in Islam were massacred by the ISI,” one UIS soldier said in Uzbek...

After reading this line I got a "you're f***ing kidding me" look. Either that I am missing something after UIS started its anti-Islamic streak, or just trying to get good PR points.

Well, the UIS could be anti- Islamic at one point and pro- at another depending on how it suit their needs. At this point Zhirinovsky is probably ranting "Kill all Muslims, kill them now", but Lebed is yanking his chain since he see the potential in using the UIS Muslim population to pacify Afghanistan (even if it is through ethnic cleansing, but we have seen Lebed being willing to reluctantly accept those tactics before if they produce the right result).

 

[Plumber]

Oh god, Bush has already entangled the image of the USA with that of the UIS. I really don't think he'll be viewed as anything other than an idiot, even if a well-meaning one. After all, it's not like people are going to view the lack of Iraq as a good thing. Minds don't work that way nearly as easily (which is what makes AH.com so fun! We use this kind of thinking all the time, but most people don't.) Jimmy Carter is not lauded for avoiding a quagmire in Iran, for example. I agree that Bush is probably just seen as an über-Carter.

Iran was handled well. Interestingly, Bush was the first president to support a Palestinian state in public (pretty sure Obama is the one who first endorsed 1967 borders, though.) But say recognize Hezbollah and you can forget the whole thing.

 

[Pellegrino]

“For too long we watched as our brothers in Islam were massacred by the ISI,” one UIS soldier said in Uzbek...

After reading this line I got a "you're f***ing kidding me" look. Either that I am missing something after UIS started its anti-Islamic streak, or just trying to get good PR points.

Well, if we go back to Part 100, we learned that many UIS generals have studied and obsessed as to "why" the Soviet Union lost the war in Afghanistan. This becomes something of a national obsession for many in the UIS military, and they soon embrace a theory called "imagined nationalism".

From PART 100:

“In America we constantly read and reread everything we could get our hands on about why we lost the Vietnam War,” Mills added, “well, the same thing was happening in the UIS. Many of the pro-Zhirinovsky generals began to embrace a new philosophy of why they lost the war, a philosophy they called Imagined Nationalism.”

The theory of Imagined Nationalism was a bizarre, overtly ethnocentric and racist philosophy which espoused the belief that Afghanistan was not a nation: it was a mountain range where colonialism ended. As a result the belief was that this resistance to colonialism was the one unifying factor that brought these diverse peoples together. Without it they would tear the nation apart on their own.

“The common theme of ‘Imagined Nationalism’ was that blood ultimately trumped everything else in Afghanistan,” Mills added, “it trumped religion, nationalism, everything. The philosophy argued that the reason the Soviet invasion led to a humiliating defeat was that they made the mistake of going into Afghanistan in order to support a political philosophy. The proponents of Imagined Nationalism claimed that in a country rife with illiteracy and ‘barbarism,’ political philosophies mattered little. They even had a deeply offensive catchphrase: monkeys don’t care about Marx.”

The result was a school of thought that claimed that had the Soviets gone in to support an ethnic “tribe” as opposed as a political faction, they would have easily won the war. As a result, many in the UIS military began to openly call for more military support for the anti-Taliban Northern Alliance.

As we can see, the UIS military sees that an invasion of Afghanistan could end poorly if they enter as "Shurawi" (or Soviets). There is already a great deal of hate and distrust towards the UIS in Afghanistan over the previous invasion, and the presence of tens of thousands of UIS troops crossing into Afghanistan could trigger an end to the Northern Alliance-Taliban conflict as all Afghans unite to dirve out the invaders. But to send in ethnic Uzbeks and Tajiks, who claim to be fighting along side their bretheren against the Pashtun (who they argue are the real foreign invaders since they are supported by Pakistan and have numerous Arab fighters alongside their ranks) could avoid the obvious problems associated with another UIS/Soviet invasion.

 

[Pellegrino]

Oh god, Bush has already entangled the image of the USA with that of the UIS. I really don't think he'll be viewed as anything other than an idiot, even if a well-meaning one. After all, it's not like people are going to view the lack of Iraq as a good thing. Minds don't work that way nearly as easily (which is what makes AH.com so fun! We use this kind of thinking all the time, but most people don't.) Jimmy Carter is not lauded for avoiding a quagmire in Iran, for example. I agree that Bush is probably just seen as an über-Carter.

Iran was handled well. Interestingly, Bush was the first president to support a Palestinian state in public (pretty sure Obama is the one who first endorsed 1967 borders, though.) But say recognize Hezbollah and you can forget the whole thing.

I was trying to figure out the phrase I was looking for when I replied to EC, but you nailed it on the head here: über-Carter.

The main difference between OTL and TTL post Presidency Bush is that in OTL Bush's critics see him as more than just a very bad President. They see him as a borderline evil warmonger who used his connections to manipulate the system and who invaded Iraq for unethical purposes. In this TTL Bush's critics see him as sort of a likable doofus who was personally honest but was surrounded by corrupt people (hence the reference to U.S. Grant in an earlier update) and who had no idea what he was doing. But there is one thing that sort of rehabilitates TTL's Bush in that the Crawford Accord does seem to play a role in the demise of Zhirinovsky, which has people sort of looking back at Bush in a somewhat more positive light, although it doesn't change the overall perception that he was in way over his head as President.

The fact that he doesn't invade Iraq doesn't define him in TTL. But it is seen by some as a bullet that he (and the US) dodged. Had he kept sanctions in place and invaded Iraq instead of parter up with the UIS (as Rumsfeld wanted) there is a feeling by many that that Zhirinovsky would still be around. So yes, folks are not thinking of it as "he didn't invade Iraq, which would have ended in a quagmire." Rather, they saw it as "he didn't invade Iraq, and instead he opened up the UIS which led to the ouster of Zhirinovsky."

 

[Plumber]

I was trying to figure out the phrase I was looking for when I replied to EC, but you nailed it on the head here: über-Carter.

The main difference between OTL and TTL post Presidency Bush is that in OTL Bush's critics see him as more than just a very bad President. They see him as a borderline evil warmonger who used his connections to manipulate the system and who invaded Iraq for unethical purposes. In this TTL Bush's critics see him as sort of a likable doofus who was personally honest but was surrounded by corrupt people (hence the reference to U.S. Grant in an earlier update) and who had no idea what he was doing. But there is one thing that sort of rehabilitates TTL's Bush in that the Crawford Accord does seem to play a role in the demise of Zhirinovsky, which has people sort of looking back at Bush in a somewhat more positive light, although it doesn't change the overall perception that he was in way over his head as President.

The fact that he doesn't invade Iraq doesn't define him in TTL. But it is seen by some as a bullet that he (and the US) dodged. Had he kept sanctions in place and invaded Iraq instead of parter up with the UIS (as Rumsfeld wanted) there is a feeling by many that that Zhirinovsky would still be around. So yes, folks are not thinking of it as "he didn't invade Iraq, which would have ended in a quagmire." Rather, they saw it as "he didn't invade Iraq, and instead he opened up the UIS which led to the ouster of Zhirinovsky."

Ah, I understand your point now! The competing "idiot" and "evil" debate of his detractors (AKA the "Cheney was the real President" argument) isn't even a factor ITTL. It's all idiot, no evil. I had actually assumed that, but just didn't realize how big a shift it is in some circles until reading that.

 

[Incognito]

China is lukewarm at best, and somewhat hostile at worse.

I thought they were more than happy to do business with UIS?

As we can see, the UIS military sees that an invasion of Afghanistan could end poorly if they enter as "Shurawi" (or Soviets). There is already a great deal of hate and distrust towards the UIS in Afghanistan over the previous invasion, and the presence of tens of thousands of UIS troops crossing into Afghanistan could trigger an end to the Northern Alliance-Taliban conflict as all Afghans unite to dirve out the invaders. But to send in ethnic Uzbeks and Tajiks, who claim to be fighting along side their bretheren against the Pashtun (who they argue are the real foreign invaders since they are supported by Pakistan and have numerous Arab fighters alongside their ranks) could avoid the obvious problems associated with another UIS/Soviet invasion.

Um, weren't a large portion of the Soviet troops in OTL Afghanistan War from Central Asia anyway? Quick internet search shows that Rand seems to say so.