worse defeat for ottomans at Ankara in 1402

[Talus I of Dixie]

The concept of culture existed before 1800 and so the concept of nation of the people( france, England, Spain are an example).
in OTL the events of the XIV century showed how powerful can be the people of same culture if they stood united.

Yes and no, the fact you have a concept of culture doesn't mean nationalism will arise inevitably, concepts of culture are something literally from the get-go of human society and took until the 1790s-1800s to develop nationalism (and even then the spread of nationalism wasn't as quick as many people think, a lot of early 19th century stuff is explained as "but the inevitable force of nationalism!!!!!" when it actually has much more to it and sometimes literally has nothing related to nationalism), for much time the concept of culture wasn't very related to statehood, even pan-[insert culture here] was rare to be seen. Nationalism arose because France needed something to put its people together and after the french took over Europe this feeling ended spreading. I mean, it is possible that nationalism may arise, but chance is to it remain a localized thing (due to the nation in which it rose ending up not being the hegemon of an entire continent), and even then it isn't inevitable that nationalism rises, equally as it isn't inevitable that nationalism never rises.

 

[The Undead Martyr]

I can see Venice expanding in the Aegean but they had zero interest in anything that was inland. I think the Byzantines were a spent force after their civil war in the 14th Century.

Inland...maybe the Hungarians like @Ultima Ratio said?

This. Venice and Hungary are the biggest winners here, since the Serbs, Byzantines and Bulgarians are all too weak and inchoate.

 

[pls don't ban me]

Since many are talking about Venice and Hungary being the best winners in this scenario, i've added them to the poll.

 

[Dementor]

I cant be sure of course but in the case of bulgaria conquering the city my guess is:
The tsar moves its Capital to the city - which wont be renamed to anything. And if they can hold on to it in a few genereations the tsar will be as greek and as byzantine in most things as any previous Emperor. Like the Ottomans were hailed at times as the sucessors of Rome so will be here the Bulgarians. The leading nobility will be mostly bulgarian but admnistration and everything else will be greek. If or when it becomes practice that the nobility moves in to the court than the nobility will become greek as well.

If Bulgaria does not conquer Anatolia or the rest of Greece (both very unlikely), Bulgarians will significantly outnumber Greeks. Not to mention that the city was at the time a shadow of its former glory, with a significantly smaller population. So even with the cultural advantage of Greece, it's Constantinople (or rather Tsarigrad) that will be assimilated. As happened with the Ottomans, of course.

Of course a Bulgarian empire - and especially one that is capable of conquering Constantinople - would be the least likely outcome of this POD. Bulgaria would be simply too weakened from the Ottoman conquest and with plenty of other problems (like countering an expansionist Serbia, Hungaria and less likely, Wallachia) to be capable of such ambitious expansion.

 

[Dominic]

Hard to imagine any powers being able to take Constantinople by storm in the style of Mehmed during the early/mid 15th century, other than the OTL Ottomans. This does not mean that the ERE isn't still doomed, or even that it will survive another generation, but the Ottomans were a uniquely capable force in both quality and quantity during the 15th century in the Balkans. Most likely outcome of a total destruction of the Ottomans at this point is outside powers becoming the leading forces in the Balkans, Hungary plausibly enough but also the various Italian players, while a wide range of local entities will have some breathing space. Bulgaria could be re-established plausibly enough, and the ERE under someone reasonably competent (i.e. Manuel II as OTL) could plausibly regain parts of Thrace. More than anything though this will be a region in flux, impossible to predict the most likely outcome of the century.

 

[Wendell]

The real issue here is the Italian maritime republics assisting an Ottoman retreat from battle in my opinion.

 

[Plundenoru]

The real issue here is the Italian maritime republics assisting an Ottoman retreat from battle in my opinion.

Why would they do that? Venice and Genoa assisted Byzantium in the 1453 siege

 

[Wendell]

Why would they do that? Venice and Genoa assisted Byzantium in the 1453 siege

They assisted the Ottomans in OTL> Probably the Devil you know kind of thing.

 

[pls don't ban me]

They assisted the Ottomans in OTL> Probably the Devil you know kind of thing.

venice was officcialy on byzantine side but the reinforcment never arrived in time due to a "delay"

Genoa was officially neutral but while a Giovanni Giustiniani(governo of schio and firend of the emperor) joined the defenses the merchants were pro-ottomans but officcially didn't help neither side

 

[Wendell]

venice was officcialy on byzantine side but the reinforcment never arrived in time due to a "delay"

Genoa was officially neutral but while a Giovanni Giustiniani(governo of schio and firend of the emperor) joined the defenses the merchants were pro-ottomans but officcially didn't help neither side

Huh. I really thought that one or both of the maritime republics ferried leading Ottomans to safety.

 

[isabella]

Huh. I really thought that one or both of the maritime republics ferried leading Ottomans to safety.

Neither of them was so crazy, specially NOT Venice, who at the worst would be be neutral but not on the Ottoman’s side

 

[pls don't ban me]

Neither of them was so crazy, specially NOT Venice, who at the worst would be be neutral but not on the Ottoman’s side

Genoa was a long time ally of the Palaiologos considering they helped them in taking back Costantinople

 

[Tibi088]

Actually Im quite interested what Hungary could do without having the Ottoman problem looming ower them constantly.
What I mean is that the Ottomans were scary strong in the 15th century - and Hungary managed to hold them till 1526. I consider that quite a remarkable feat.
Hungary also spent a fortune on building and maintaining a fort system on its southern border. And even while doing that they were able to create and pay for an army that Matthias used to conquer half of Austria, Moravia and Silesia. Im not sure what they would have done but the potential for something big is there.