WI Warlordism in Russia?

Green Ukraine lives! It's certainly an ephemeral state, bound to collapse fairly quickly, but it's too cool not to include - I tried to place is so that it's between but doesn't include Vladivostok and Khabarovsk to represent the small, rural nature of the thing.

Interesting.

And it (i.e. the large Ukrainian minority) happened somewhere between 1895 and 1915, that quickly. I didn't even know about it.

A-H.com, you learn something new every day.
 
Fleshing out the players... get your score cards out!

* The USSR with a capital in Petersburg, stretching eastwards as far as Vologda or so. Leader: Leon Trotsky.
* The Tambov Soviet. Leader: Nikolai Bukharin.
* An uneasy coalition between the Constitutional Democratic and Socialist-Revolutionary parties in Moscow controlling some, but not all, of the Muscovite heartland. Leader: Prince Lvov.
* In Samara, a Provisional All-Russian Government run by the counter-revolutionary Komuch group. Leader: Vladimir Kappel.
* In Tsaritsyn, the Volga Area Provisional Government. Leader: Pyotr Wrangel.
* An Anglo-American supported North Russia Provisional Government controlling the Arctic coast from Archangelsk to Murmansk. Leader: Nikolai Yudenich.
* The Kolchak-led Provisional Government of Autonomous Siberia centered on Tomsk. Leader: Aleksandr Kolchak.
* The Siberian Republic in Omsk. Leader: Grigory Semyonov.
* A Japanese backed Provisional Priamurye Government in Vladivostok. Leader: Mikhail Dieterichs
* A rival Bolshevik Far Eastern Republic in Chita. Leader: Joseph Stalin.
* The All Russia Provisional Government, backed by the Italian Legione Redenta, in Irkutsk. Leader: Sergey Markov.
* The Orenburg Cossack Army in the southern Urals. Leader: Alexander Dutov.
* Turkestan in and around Tashkent. Leader: Enver Pasha.
* A constantly shifting struggle between Bolsheviks, non-Bolshevik leftists, Anarchists, Whites and Ukrainian nationalists in Ukraine.
* In southeastern Ukraine, the Makhnovchina based in Huliaipole. Leader: Nester Makhno.
* Around Lviv, the Ukrainian State. Leader: Pavlo Skoropadskyi.
* The Directorate of Ukraine in Kharkiv. Leader: Symon Petliura.
* The Ukrainian People's Republic in Kiev and central Ukraine. Leader: Mykhailo Hrushevskyi.
* Denikin's South Russian Volunteer Army Zone in the Crimea and south Russia along the Sea of Azov. Leader: Anton Denikin.
* A small Ukrainian Republic of the Far East along the middle and upper reaches of the Ussuri River. Leader: Boris Khreschatitsky.
* Several independent and overlapping states in the Caucasus.
* Mountainous Republic of the Northern Caucasus (Chechnya, Ingushetia, North Ossetia, Kabardino-Balkaria, Dagestan) based in Temir-Khan-Shura (Buynaksk). Leader: Tapa Tchermoeff.
* Azerbaijan Democratic Republic in Baku. Leader: Fatali Khan Khoyski.
* In Kars, the Turkish dominated South West Caucasian Government. Leader: Cihangirzade İbrahim Bey.
* Democratic Republic of Georgia in Tbilisi. Leader: Noe Ramishvili.
* The Democratic Republic of Armenia in Baku. Leader: Simon Vratsian.
* The Transcaucasian Democratic Federative Republic nominally consists of Armenia, Azerbaikan and Georgia but is limited to a small coastal area around Batumi. Leader: Nikolay Chkheidze.
* The Tatar-founded Idel-Ural State centered in Kazan. Leader: Sadri Maksudi Arsal.
* The Kuban People's Republic around Yekaterinodar. Leader: Alexander Filimonov.
* The Moldavian Democratic Republic in Chisinau. Leader: Ion Inculeţ.
* In South Russia, the Don Republic based in Novocherkassk. Leader: Pyotr Krasnov.
* The "Mongolian Empire" in Khem-Beldyr (OTL Kyzyl). Leader: Roman Ungern von Sternberg.
* A Tuvan People's Republic, driven out of Khem-Beldyr by Ungern von Sternberg and huddled around the village of Mugur-Aksy. Leader: Donduk Kuular.
* In Khiva, the Khorezm People's Soviet Republic. Leader: Hoji Pahlavon Niyoz Yusuf.
* The Emirate of Bukhara. Leader: Alikhan Bokeikhanov.
* As-yet-unallocated regional strongmen (usually former Czarist officers with a cadre of veteran soldiers and a larger mob of bandits to prop them up) almost everywhere.
* Finland and the other western breakaway states.
* And God knows what else. The scary/amusing/something part is that almost all of those states actually existed in 1917-1920.

Now to figure out some sort of timeline of civil war and consolidation.
 
Originally posted by varyar
Around Lviv, the Ukrainian State. Leader: Pavlo Skoropadskyi.
Poor chance. Poland wanted Lviv (Lwów), Poles were plurality in the town itself (I think) so western Galicia is Polish, especially if Poland is to be Japan of Eastern Europe. Some small Ukrainian state would be unable to stop the Poles.

I have a question. Why on all maps here Poland is shown without the Pomeranian Corridor? IOTL Poland wanted (and needed) an access to Baltic Sea, had claims for Danzig/Gdańsk. France would have supported Poland against Germany, since Paris wanted relatively strong Poland to keep an eye on the Germans. With Russia practically balkanized Britain might have supported Poles too, seeing Poland as a stabilizing power in the region.
 
Poor chance. Poland wanted Lviv (Lwów), Poles were plurality in the town itself (I think) so western Galicia is Polish, especially if Poland is to be Japan of Eastern Europe. Some small Ukrainian state would be unable to stop the Poles.

Fair enough. It was just the first city that came to my sleepy, distracted brain. Let's say Vinnytsya instead, then.
 
A few points:

French support of Poland: it was smaller than support for the Whites - especially Denikin & later Wrangel. So in case of tension between one of the above warlords and Poles, France will lean on Poland to give in.

Wilno/Vilnius - as there will be no Soviet offensive in 1920, it will stay Polish for sure. Unless of course White Russia (or a strong enough Russian faction) attacks Poland.

Also, what's with independent Moldavia? From late 1918 it was under Romanian control.

BTW, regarding maps, I'm wondering where did surviving Austro-Hungary comes from:confused:
 
Be careful about creating too many states. Many of the little despotates that you see springing up in Siberia only did so after the defeat of Admiral Kolchak in late 1919. If the scenario is positing that the Whites don't collapse, then Kolchak will maintain varying degrees of control over the landmass between the Urals and Irkutsk. Things like the Far Eastern Republic won't exist because they were effectively created by the Red Army.

Also, aside from the independent Caucasian republics I would expect to see the Whites in Southern Russia united behind one leader.
 
Seems to me that there would be a highly entertaining role for Sidney Reilly here, indeed his involvement in the Lockheart plot might even be the PoD. Either way, his death will be butterflied, and he'll be scheming all over the place. He could well go entirely off the reservation.

At the very least he could be a shadowy eminence grise behind one of the players; given his skills and talent, maybe he even could go native (returns native?) and make a play for control of Russia himself?
 
Be careful about creating too many states. Many of the little despotates that you see springing up in Siberia only did so after the defeat of Admiral Kolchak in late 1919. If the scenario is positing that the Whites don't collapse, then Kolchak will maintain varying degrees of control over the landmass between the Urals and Irkutsk. Things like the Far Eastern Republic won't exist because they were effectively created by the Red Army.

Also, aside from the independent Caucasian republics I would expect to see the Whites in Southern Russia united behind one leader.

The Whites, unfortunately for them, don't manage to form a really unified government even in the face of a Red schism. At least at first. The long, long list of petty players in the Russian Civil War, I'm thinking-as-I-go, reflects the facts on the ground in, say, the first half of 1919. After that, factions will collapse and consolidate into maybe seven or eight regional players (a couple White, a couple Red, a couple moderate left - Pink? :rolleyes:) and then stay that way for the remainder of the Warlord Period until the ultimate winner gains control over the entire country.

Or most of it. I like the idea of a surviving, independent Far East republic of one color or another. Maybe some effective White leader is backed by the Japanese long enough to organize and secure his position against any Moscow-regime offensives.

(Plus the independent states in the west and Caucasus and Central Asia)

Seems to me that there would be a highly entertaining role for Sidney Reilly here, indeed his involvement in the Lockheart plot might even be the PoD. Either way, his death will be butterflied, and he'll be scheming all over the place. He could well go entirely off the reservation.

Never heard of him... ::Wikis::

Wow. Yeah, he deserves a part in all this.
 
Hmm, without Soviet support , how would China turn out I wonder? Obviously an an actual Japanese victory is pretty much impossible, but would they eventually secure their holdings in Manchuria to the point where the KMT don't really have a chance at forcing them out without major assistance? Also, yeah, the Sapanese wold probably try and seize trhe Pacific fleet (did one even exist at that point?), set up a puppet in Kamchatka and seize North Salkalm (I have no clue how you actually spell that, I mean the island in the North Pacific that was partitioned).

Also, with the Reds collapsing into violent squabbling, would you see as much of a Red Scare in the west TTL? After all, without the threat of imminent World Revolution, many of the more successful far-right movements lose a lot of steam.
 
* In Khiva, the Khorezm People's Soviet Republic. Leader: Hoji Pahlavon Niyoz Yusuf.
* The Emirate of Bukhara. Leader: Alikhan Bokeikhanov.

Where Central Asia is in all of this will be quite interesting...I doubt the Khorezm People's republic will have a long shelf life-most of its population are still going to be traditional Muslims, and Communism most likely won't have much appeal. I think one of two things would happen-there would be a movement to restore the three traditional central Asian Khanates-Khiva, Bukhara, and Khokand, or some sort of pan-Turkic nationalist movement would form and try to unite the area (similar to the OTL Basmachi movement, probably starting in Khiva/Khorezm once people get tired of communism). If the region is still in flux after the Treaty of Laussane guarantees Ataturk's continued rule in Turkey, then Turkey will probably support any Turkic nationalist movment to some degree or another. The Emir of Afghanistan doing some meddling is a possibility as well. Personally, I like the idea of a pan-Turkic nationalist movement uniting the region under one banner, then securing British support against whoever unifies the rest of Russia (Britain would want to keep Russia as far from India as possible).

Its also highly possible that some other breakaway states (Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, North Caucasus, Ukraine, etc.) survive Russia's reunification. It would depend on how zealous the reunifier is about controlling the entire territory of the Czars, and how much support other countries provide)
 
Hm. How's this for a POD and set-up?

"There's no shortage of urban legends and popular mythology about the Russian Civil War. Every faction - and there were enough factions to fill a phone book - had its own treasury of tales.

Take the Lenin Incident, for instance. On the face of it, it seems simple enough. Noted Bolshevik theorist and orator Vladimir Lenin, in exile in Europe since 1907, is shot and killed when trying to cross the border between a newly independent Finland and Russia in the hopes of joining his comrades in the Revolution.

Not so fast!

The conspiracy-minded latched on to the event like a vampire pretty much as soon as the news got out. Lenin's followers in Russia smelled a rat - a rat named Leon Trotsky. Trotsky and Lenin had radically (ah-hem) different ideas on how to spread the Communist Revolution. Lenin was (relatively speaking) a gradualist and in favor of at least pretending to support the interests of peasants. Or what Bolsheviks considered the interests of peasants, at any rate. Trotsky, on the other hand, was a fire-breathing, World Revolution type. The conspiracy theory has it that they weren't just a few shades apart on the far left scale, but bitter enemies. Trotsky was afraid of Lenin coming back and taking control of the Revolution (the Bolshevik form of which hadn't actually overthrown the Provisional Government yet, but why quibble over details?) so he arranged for the border guards to meet Lenin at the border and say hello, gangland style. There's a subset of this theory that says the border guards were all actually Trotskyite men in disguise.

Then there's the even wilder theories, the ones that seem to surround the death of every 'great man', that say Lenin survived the incident. Scarred and disillusioned, he slunk back into exile. Probably ended up in the same American town that Napoleon escaped to after faking his death on Elba, right? And, somewhat understandably given their mutual history in the 20th century, there's another set of theories that says it was the Germans behind everything. They'd already denied Lenin safe passage from Switzerland to Russia, after all, and the generals running the country by that point were hardly friends to radical politicians. Maybe they were the ones who made the infamous (and very much unproven) 'phone call' to the border guards?"

1000 Years of Urban Legends
Alan Landsman, New York Free Press
 
Very interesting.

So I guess Trotsky leads the October Revolution and destroys the Kerensky government, but Lenin's supporters break away and the whole thing collapses?
 
Very interesting.

So I guess Trotsky leads the October Revolution and destroys the Kerensky government, but Lenin's supporters break away and the whole thing collapses?

Essentially, yes. Not all of Lenin's supporters, but enough to tip the scales.
 

Teleology

Banned
There's no great caliphate in the middle-east but in fact many of the failing countries there provide a great hotbed for terrorism. So, in practical terms, the West would still have a lot to fear from even an anarchic rump Bolshevik state, even if it's a hollow nation surrounded by other Russian statelets. Especially if Trotskyite thought becomes the prevailing wind. Ironically, not having a unified communist Russia will give more impetus to the desire to strike blows for the World Revolution internationally, in my opinion. Plus even if Russia is fractured into pieces, if many of the pieces are too weak for the government to exert much authority within it's borders then even anti-communist statelets might become hotbeds of communist activity. If the World Revolution meme becomes set, they might not even seek to overthrow weak non/anti-communist governments but instead use them as a shield and to avoid having to run the state themselves. Without responsibility for the state of the people they could use the misery of the people not for a temporary revolution at home that will leave them in charge but having to either stop that misery or face the consequences, but instead using those miserable people whom they aren't responsible for (as they are not the legitimate government) as endless footsoldiers in the the global struggle against capitalism.

The starving refugee camps of weak ultra-conservative and liberal-democratic Russian statelets would be a breeding ground for saboteurs, agitators, and so on to send out into the world to raise recruits in other countries and to spread the revolution through terrorism.

Ethnic statelets too, as the Russians and other ethnicities in a Ukraine/Turkic/whatever state would probably be miserable refugees as well and also serve as good harvest grounds for exporting the revolution.

So basically you might have the Red Scare be (perhaps justifiedly) intensified rather than modulated by a fractured Russia.

Just a thought.
 
I started a similar thread like this one a very long time ago. Maybe you can look at it for reference, and also a timeline about one of the most notorious of these warlords, the Bloody Baron.

Oh, cool! It's eerie that we both had the idea of Stalin running his own rival USSR.

Worked out a bit on the foreign powers involved in the warlord era. Thoughts/suggestions/whatnot from the viewers at home?

* No country played a greater role in the Warlord Era than Poland. Polish leader Jozef Pilsudski was devoted to creating a Miedzymorze Federation of the newly-independent states between Russia and Germany. Although that scheme attracted little interest from Finland, the Baltic Republics and the rest of Eastern Europe, it still alarmed Russian observers and drew Polish interest towards the uncertain situation across its hazily-defined eastern borders. Polish involvement began as a series of border skirmishes with Ukrainians in East Galicia and soon lead to Polish 'sponsorship' of Mykhailo Hrushevskyi's Ukrainian People's Republic in Kiev. Thus began a multi-sided war between the Poles and their Ukrainian allies (or puppets, as they were widely denounced) and Ukrainian nationalists and communists, 'internationalist' Bolsheviks and White Russian forces, as well as local anarchists converging around Nestor Makhno east and southeast of the Dnieper. The Poles gradually abandoned the UPR and its sister, the Belarusian People's Republic in Minsk, and switched to a policy of outright annexation of a broad swath of land up to the Berezyna-Dnieper-Teterew triangle line as well as territory south of the Southern Boh as far east as Winnica. (The late 1920s and early 1930s saw a major Polonization campaign centered on the Kresy (borderland) cities of Sluck, Mozyrz, Zytomierz and Kamieniec Podolski, a campaign with decidedly mixed and violent results.) A related scheme of Prometheism, or support for non-Russian nationalist movements on the fringes of the old Russian Empire, saw Polish spies and their local agents active on a low level from the Baltics to Turkestan (where some of the Basmachi rebels were allegedly advised by Polish soldiers; in most cases, the "Poles" were actually German mercenaries).

* Great Britain and the United States worked largely side by side in the early Warlord Era; more precisely, the USA worked side by side with Britain, while Britain also undertook independent operations in the Caucasus. The major effort was the joint operation in the north, in and around the ports of Murmansk and Archangelsk. Initially, this aimed at securing the distribution of war material accumulating in those cities, but the collapse of the Russian Army and then the German Army in 1917-1918 rendered this moot and the mission became a much vaguer pro-White campaign. Bolshevik forces proved to be a "Red Ulcer" for the Anglo-American forces and by the beginning of 1919, most of their soldiers were withdrawing. The last British troops departed Archangelsk in March 1919, while the Americans remained only until May. Further south, the British were much more successful and played a crucial role in the establishment and consolidation of the Caucasus democracies.

* France's major role in the Warlord Era was its generally unstinting support of Poland. Huge stocks of surplus war material - rifles, machine guns, light artillery, armored cars, airplanes and ammunition for it all - ended up transfered from Paris to Warsaw. French politicians, eager to establish strong states in the chaos of Eastern Europe, backed Pilsudki's interventions in the face of British caution, German alarm and Russian resistance. In addition, the French carried out a short occupation (alongside Polish and Greek troops) of Odessa to secure the extreme left wing of White General Denikin's South Russian Army. When Denikin was driven out of the Ukraine early in 1919, the French abandoned Odessa; it was thereafter occupied by the Romanians, serving as the capital of the Odessa Republic before being annexed as part of Romania's new Transnistria province.

* Finland, once its own Civil War ended with a White victory in the summer of 1918, played a small but important part in the Russian maelstrom. President Carl Mannerheim, decidely unsympathetic to the Bolshevik regime in Petersburg, pushed as hard as he could given Finland's economic and political weaknesses, and the disapproval of the nearby Anglo-American forces in Murmansk. Finnish 'volunteers' (generally authentic volunteers despite contemporary and later Russian propaganda) launched several border expeditions, the most crucial of which was the North Ingrian Uprising that nearly led to a Petersburger-Finnish War and definitely tied down thousands of desperately needed Bolshevik troops on the Karelian Isthmus north of Petersburg. Finnish annexations up to the Äänisjärvi-Syväri-Rajajoki line were well established by the end of the Warlord Period and recognized by the Treaty of Toksova in 1928.

* Japan moved quickly as the situation in Russia deteriorated. By the summer of 1918, over 12,000 Japanese soldiers had landed in Vladivostok, propping up the White regime they had already quietly been arming since the beginning of the year. For three years, the Russian Far East was firmly under Japanese control, with the Japanese expedition reaching 75,000 soldiers at its height, North Sakhalin ruled by a Japanese civilian governor and mixed Japanese and White troops operating as far west as Lake Baikal. The expense and domestic unpopularity of the expedition lead to a gradual winding down beginning in 1921. The last Japanese troops left Vladivostok in April 1923, creating a short-lived power vaccuum.

* China, too, was active in the Russian Far East. In 1919, an "Outer Manchurian Liberation Army" manifested and seized control of some border towns along the Amur and Ussuri near Khabarovsk. The OMLA (or Waimanzhou Fangjun) destroyed the Ukrainian Republic of the Far East and briefly threatened White-held Khabarovsk before a hastily mustered force of Japanese and Priamurye troops out of Vladivostok drove it back over the Chinese border. Thereafter, OMLA radicals slipped over the Amur and Ussuri on raids and were rumored to be recruiting in the Chinese community of Vladivostok, but otherwise, China's own internal troubles restricted it to preventing the use of its own territory by various Russian factions.

* Germany's contribution was decidedly unofficial and relatively low-key, but several freikorps sub-units gravitated to the East, fighting for this or that White faction. They were matched by a few hundred Spartakists devoted to the dream of a Revolution in Russia that would march west and 'liberate' Germany. In addition, thousands of freebooters and adventurers ended up in the employ of local warlords during the early years of the Warlord Era. By 1925, most of them had died or returned home, but the Stoschberg Regiment, a mix of freikorps veterans and mercenaries, fought at the side of the Whites to the very end.

* Italy was one of the secondary intervention powers, but it did support the All Russia Provisional Government in Irkutsk from the fall of 1918 until November 1919. Thereafter, Italy's only role was an indirect one, mainly as a supplier of arms to various factions (the Italians, somewhat cynically, favored no particular side and were later blamed by Russian nationalists for helping to prolong the Warlord Period).

* The Republic of Turkey, established only in 1922, was a latecomer in formal terms, but various Turkish militants had been active in the Muslim parts of the Caucasus since the beginning of the Warlord Era. Turkish rifles and mountain guns 'somehow' found their way into the hands of the armies of the Mountainous Republic of the Northern Caucasus and the Azerbaijan Democratic Republic, and the South West Caucasian Government in Kars was a Turkish creature from its formation in 1918 to its annexation in 1924. Farther afield, Turkish agents moved among the Basmachi and other Muslim rebels in Central Asia. Enver Pasha's quixotic adventures in and around Tashkent are only the most famous example of Pan-Turkish schemes, schemes that did play a small part in the independence of Altai, Bashkiria, Buryatia, Kazakhstan, Khakasiya, Kyrgystan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Tuva and Uzbekistan.
 
China; Chinese warlords siezed Outer Mongolia and detained Bogd Kan OTL until baron Ungern von Sternberg intervened, no Sternbergian intervention would mean Outer Mongolia still occupied by Chinese warlords.
 
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