WI Russia supported rather than opposed the Prussian-led Erfurt Union in 1850?

[raharris1973]

In 1850 they supported the Austrians, which forced Prussia to back off its bid for leadership in Germany. What if Russia supported Prussia instead?

 

[raharris1973]

Would this result in unification of all Germany beyond Austria, without any wars with France?

What would the knock-on effects be in Italy? Italian/Piedmontese desires to expand would no doubt be rekindled by Prussia's example, and if things line up right, they can succeed early or on time. Or, with its exclusion from little Germany, Austria could hold on tighter to its Italian interests for decades.

By 1850, were Prussia and other German states done with fighting Denmark for the moment? Or would the Prussian-led union's initial foreign policy effort be securing Schleswig and Holstein?

Would an earlier unified Germany get in on colonialism a bit earlier and thus get more than OTL?

 

[Vanity 6]

In 1850 they supported the Austrians, which forced Prussia to back off its bid for leadership in Germany. What if Russia supported Prussia instead?

Russia does not support Austria/oppose the Union? I suspect it happens then though I am not so sure what the structure of the union was and who the members were. I thought Bavaria and Wurttemberg had been persuaded to remain outside. Is it a partial unification then?

Britain, France and Austria will be suspicious of the Union. It can't win all the time. They are forced to compromise on Schleswig-Holstein. In some version of the Crimean War (should it come about), they are forced into an awkward neutrality as Britain-France-Austria oppose Russia. In Italy, France may feel less adventurous with the Union on its border and instead engages in cynical horse trading with Austria.

 

[LordKalvan]

The possibility that the czar sides with Prussia against Austria verges on ASBish.
Just the year before Russia had saved the Austrian bacon by its intervention in Hungary, and relations between Austria and Russia could not have been better.
Nicholas I did not want any political change in Europe, in particular not so early after the upheaval of the generalized insurrections of 1848-49, and saw himself as the guarantor of the status quo: supporting Prussia against Austria at the conference in Warsaw in October 1850 would have meant to increase the likelihood of re-igniting the unrest in the Germanies (the Electorate of Hesse was still seeing confrontation between the Elector and the local population),and anyway it was in the Russian interest to keep Austria fully involved in its role of policeman of the Germanies and the Italies.
The timing for the Prussian attempt to contest the leadership in Germany was very badly chosen, and did not take into account political realities (not to mention that the efficiency of the Prussian army was at its nadir). They walked blindly into a losing proposition, and the humiliation of Olmutz was the predictable outcome.
An apparently more interesting POD might be Prussia biding its time, and making its move after the war of Crimea: of course by 1855 the German Confederation would have been re-created under the Austrian presidency, which would make everything more complicated, and anyway the Prussian army would not be in a position to match the Austrian ones (which would certainly have also the support of Bavaria and Saxony at least).
With hindsight, the humiliation of Olmutz was the spark for the reform of the Prussian army (which might have not happened in a different scenario, or at least might have been significantly delayed) and turned into the first step toward the triumphs of the 1860s.

 

[Zurirach Adankar]

It seems unlikely that Russia would support such an union.
Supporting such a union means supporting a radical change of the balance of power in Europe and the indirect support for a more modern nationalistic movement.
Russia intervened against Hungary and has constant problems and uprisings because of Polish nationalists, why should they support Prussia in their attempt to gain more power by cooperating with more radical German Nationalists?
Russia was supporting the status quo in her foreign policy in OTL. You need good reasons why this could change.

 

[Vanity 6]

Maybe Russia fears a bellicose France and wants a stronger Prussia to block it; Austria being to weak to do so. There are, after all, familial ties between the two courts. In return for the reduced influence in Germany (perhaps Austria remains aligned with independent Bavaria and Wurttemberg), Russia and Prussia underwrite the continued Austrian position in Italy. I realize this is a stretch and there are reasons why things played out as they did.

 

[raharris1973]

supporting Prussia against Austria at the conference in Warsaw in October 1850 would have meant to increase the likelihood of re-igniting the unrest in the Germanies

Supporting such a union means supporting a radical change of the balance of power in Europe and the indirect support for a more modern nationalistic movement.

why should they support Prussia in their attempt to gain more power by cooperating with more radical German Nationalists?

Well the Prussian government at this time, nor the British government, saw Berlin's policies in 1850 as an alliance with dangerous "radicals", "democrats" or "republicans". By late 1849, the Prussians had told the Frankfurt parliamentarians to go jump in the Main river. I recognize how Russia probably did not see it that way though.

In return for the reduced influence in Germany (perhaps Austria remains aligned with independent Bavaria and Wurttemberg), Russia and Prussia underwrite the continued Austrian position in Italy.

Ah, a "divide and police" strategy with Prussia as German policeman and Austria as Italian, and perhaps in the long-run Russia as Balkan policemen.