WI: Prussia loses the 7 Years War

[p0lish_runn3r]

So my idea is that Russia stays in the war rather than pulling out early in 1762, and then helping Prussia. This keeps the pressure on Fredrick and eventually Berlin falls, then he has to sue for peace. Prussia would effectively be partitioned, but what about Britian? Do they try and white peace to keep Hannover or ditch it to take France's colonies?

^alt 1766

 

[Z00M3R]

Basically, Peter III of Russia was a moron. He neglected his wife, he wished that he could rule a more civilized country like Sweden, and he barely spoke any Russian. He
dropped out of the war, essentially a slap in the face to the Russians who had enlisted and lost their lives fighting the war, because he thought that Frederick the Great was cool and he admired him. If you want Russia to stay in the war you need to either keep Elizabeth alive or have her name someone else as heir. This might be bad in the long run, though, because Catherine the Great will never come to power.

 

[Atterdag]

Basically, Peter III of Russia was a moron. He neglected his wife, he wished that he could rule a more civilized country like Sweden, and he barely spoke any Russian. He
dropped out of the war, essentially a slap in the face to the Russians who had enlisted and lost their lives fighting the war, because he thought that Frederick the Great was cool and he admired him. If you want Russia to stay in the war you need to either keep Elizabeth alive or have her name someone else as heir. This might be bad in the long run, though, because Catherine the Great will never come to power.

or just change Peter’s personality

 

[p0lish_runn3r]

or just change Peter’s personality

true but one of the main reasons catherine came to power was because of how peter pulled russia out of the war for no gain when they were about to destroy prussia

 

[alexmilman]

Basically, Peter III of Russia was a moron. He neglected his wife, he wished that he could rule a more civilized country like Sweden, and he barely spoke any Russian. He
dropped out of the war, essentially a slap in the face to the Russians who had enlisted and lost their lives fighting the war, because he thought that Frederick the Great was cool and he admired him. If you want Russia to stay in the war you need to either keep Elizabeth alive or have her name someone else as heir. This might be bad in the long run, though, because Catherine the Great will never come to power.

Practically all of the above is taken from the official history promoted by CII and, as such, is mostly wrong.

To start with, "neglecting wife" was more or less expected from an aristocrat and it also should be noticed that his wife actively cheated on him. Wishing to be a king of the civilized country is not an indication of being a moron, rather it is other way around. Degree of his grasp of the Russian we can't define now but it seems that he was freely communicating with his subjects. OTOH, Catherine II, with her alleged "perfect" Russian, hold a record of making 4 mistakes in 3 letter word.

Dropping out of the expensive and rather idiotic war in which Russia did not have any clear interest (read protocol of the Conference, March 15, 1756) was the right thing to do and it is worth noticing that most of the unhappy noises had been coming (a) from Bolotov, author of the memoirs, who comfortably spent most of it in Konigsberg, (b) the Guards who spent it in St-Petersburg, and (c) Catherine herself. Needless to say, that as the Grand Duchess Catherine (her father was Prussian general) was in a complete agreement with her husband and was taking money from the British Ambassador (the "Young Court" was almost openly pro-Prussian). After the coup she did not change a word in the agreement and the Old Fritz remained her closest confidant all the way to 1771/72 when he forced her to agree to the 1st Partition.

OTOH, there was no unhappiness related to the peace from the people who were really involved in the war like Rumiantsev, Buturlin, etc. Anyway, by the time Peter signed the peace Russian-Austrian relations had been almost completely broken with the Russians blaming Austrians for failing to supply them, trying to win a war by the Russian hands and other sins and the Austrians being openly unhappy as well.

The Old Fritz was not necessary "cool" but he definitely was the greatest general of that time and a very capable monarch who arranged an orderly and efficient administration of his kingdom. Small wonder that a ruler familiar with the Russian mess wanted to follow the good example. Actually, during his short reign PIII pushed through a number of the important laws credit for some of which was post-factum appropriated by his widow.

CII not coming to power would not be necessarily bad for Russia because, while being superficially "glorious", her reign was truly remarkable for its wastefulness, corruption, inefficiency, foolish foreign policies (making her former boyfriend a King of the PLC was just a beginning) and absolutely terrible domestic policies which had a disastrous impact upon the Russian economy: she turned serfdom into a slavery thus killing for almost a century possibility of the industrial development. Being absolutely unlawful monarch, she had to keep pleasing the Russian nobility just as a way to survive and to please those close to the throne (and more dangerous because they could support her son) by the enormous gifts of money, jewels and lands with the serfs (during her reign 850,000 "state" peasants had been given to to the provate owners

 

[Galba Otho Vitelius]

alexmilman beat me to it. I will add that, with the exception of the years after the battle of Friedland, Russia and Prussia were usually allied down to 1889. They had a common interest in keeping Austria down. It was the alliance with Austria that the anomaly, gaining East Prussia would not have been worth a really powerful Austria.

The point of alexmilman's post is that if the POD is that Russia continues into the war, you want Elizabeth to live a few years longer. Since Catherine was pro-Prussian, changing the mind of her estranged husband on the issue will not be enough, unless you also have him crush the coup. And I don't think this POD affects Russian domestic politics. East Prussia is nice to have but not a game changer, after all its Russian territory now.

A more powerful Austria, that regains Silesia and slaps Prussia down, changes the situation in Germany and there will probably be a reaction within Germany.

In fact, I'm not sure if the war is diplomatically winnable by the Hapsburgs, using a POD as late as 1762. If they had won a quick victory, in the first two years, they would have gotten Silesia back and everyone would have accepted the fait accompli. As the war dragged on, and Prussia was occupied -note that Berlin IOTL did fall to the Russians- you have the dismemberment of Russia become a possibility and other German states supporting Austria would have switched sides. Britain would have kept supporting Prussia to maintain the balance of power and to avoid the loss of Hanover. Friedrich could have retreated from Saxony to Hanover and kept fighting with his British paid for mercenary army. Once you get past 1760, eventually Russia will drop out since they gain nothing from the war, France will run out of money and drop out, and Austria has to accept a white peace.

 

[alexmilman]

true but one of the main reasons catherine came to power was because of how peter pulled russia out of the war for no gain when they were about to destroy prussia

They were not “about to destroy Prussia” and this was quite clear even to the 6 years old Grand Duke Paul who commented on Buturlin’s appointment that “he will make neither peace nor war” and proved to be right: with the exception of the siege of Kolberg (to provide a more convenient and cheaper supply by the Baltic Sea), after his appointment the Russian troops were mostly guarding their supply bases in the PLC against the Prussian raids. No reprimands from Elizabeth could force him to act aggressively.

Just FYI, while PIII recalled him and returned to his old position of governor-general of Moscow, CII awarded him with a sword decorated with the diamonds.

 

[alexmilman]

alexmilman beat me to it. I will add that, with the exception of the years after the battle of Friedland, Russia and Prussia were usually allied down to 1889. They had a common interest in keeping Austria down. It was the alliance with Austria that the anomaly, gaining East Prussia would not have been worth a really powerful Austria.

The point of alexmilman's post is that if the POD is that Russia continues into the war, you want Elizabeth to live a few years longer. Since Catherine was pro-Prussian, changing the mind of her estranged husband on the issue will not be enough, unless you also have him crush the coup. And I don't think this POD affects Russian domestic politics. East Prussia is nice to have but not a game changer, after all its Russian territory now.

A more powerful Austria, that regains Silesia and slaps Prussia down, changes the situation in Germany and there will probably be a reaction within Germany.

In fact, I'm not sure if the war is diplomatically winnable by the Hapsburgs, using a POD as late as 1762. If they had won a quick victory, in the first two years, they would have gotten Silesia back and everyone would have accepted the fait accompli. As the war dragged on, and Prussia was occupied -note that Berlin IOTL did fall to the Russians- you have the dismemberment of Russia become a possibility and other German states supporting Austria would have switched sides. Britain would have kept supporting Prussia to maintain the balance of power and to avoid the loss of Hanover. Friedrich could have retreated from Saxony to Hanover and kept fighting with his British paid for mercenary army. Once you get past 1760, eventually Russia will drop out since they gain nothing from the war, France will run out of money and drop out, and Austria has to accept a white peace.

Indeed. And while the Russian goal of the war was to prevent strengthening Prussia up to a degree allowing its interference in the PLC, substitution of Prussia with Austria would not be welcomed either. When it came to the elections i. the PLC after the 7YW Russia and Prussia joined their efforts not to allow the Austrian candidate to win.

Then, of course, goes a personal factor which can’t be discounted in Elizabeth’s decision regarding a war: Old Fritz made publicly some disparaging comments about her mental capacities. And, of course, Austria was paying Russia subsidies for its military effort (not big enough to prevent a near bankruptcy by the end of a war).