Now this is an interesting question.
Let's assume that President Buchanan dies in November of 1860, after Abraham Lincoln has been elected. For simplicity's sake, lets assume he dies of illness or a heart attack. Accordingly, Vice President Beckinridge becomes President in the interim period between Buchanan's death and Lincoln's inauguration on March 4, 1861.
I presume the Secessionist Winter and the formation of the Confederacy would still occur (as Lincoln will still become President in 1861). That leaves me with a few questions:
- Would any additional state secede during the Secessionist Winter? (1)
- Would Breckenridge attempt some sort of national reconciliation? What could this look like and would it have any chance of being successful? (2)
- Assuming there is no attempt at national reconciliation or such attempts fail - would President Breckenridge recognize the C.S.A. as Independent (3) and order federal assets to leave the Confederacy? (4)
- Assuming Breckenridge extends diplomatic recognition to the C.S.A (this is within the powers of the President - correct?) - what does Lincoln do once he becomes President? (5)
- What happens in the Upper South while all of this is going on? (6)
- What does Breckenridge do in the aftermath of his Presidency? (7)
I will be conducting some research into these questions myself, but I look forward to the input of the board. There might be a timeline arising from this.
1) Only if Breckinridge actively encourages it. The problem for him is that pre-Fort Sumter a lot of future CSA states remained in the Union.
2) Impossible. With Lincoln's election as far as the Fire Eaters were concerned the dye was cast. Besides, Breckinridge's heart would be even less in it than Buchanan's.
3) YES.
4) More likely he'd order all Federal assets
handed over to his newly recognized Confederacy. He could well order all Federal forces in the CSA to surrender to the nearest Confederate authorities as well.
5) VERY good question. Probably arranges for a congressional denunciation of Breckinridge as a traitor. If he does all as you describe he certainly constitutionally qualifies. Lincoln breaks off diplomatic relations with the CSA. After that, Breckinridge is seen in the North as Benedict Arnold on steroids, human growth hormone, and amphetamines.
See below on #7.
6) Probably OTL, as the Border States, Virginia, and Tennessee will be re-assured by Breckinridge's ascension and his subsequent actions ITTL.
7) Go South of course.
He'll have to if he wants to avoid a Federal treason trial that leads to the thirteen steps. I'm not joking. After all, if Breckinridge does as described above, then ALL Republicans and the soon-to-be) War Democrats will be howling for his blood. Post Lincoln's inauguration his very life could be in danger, even in Kentucky.
BRECKINRIDGE HAS NO FUTURE IN THE UNION AFTER ALL OF THE ABOVE, AND WILL PROBABLY BE ON THE SAME BOAT AS CONFEDERATE SECRETARY OF STATE JUDAH BENJAMIN FLEEING THE CSA FOR LONDON.
Assuming Confederate survival, Breckinridge would have an excellent political future in the Confederacy.