WI no Peter the Great? An isolationists Rusia?

[Admiral Brown]

What if Russia doesn't reform during Peter the Great's reign??? Would Russia remain as a (much more) technologically backwards country in relation to Europe??? If Russia manteins her distictive traditions, clothes, and beliefs, and if the Russian Ortodox Church remains hostile to everything that comes from the West, could Russia be seen in Europe as a completely foreign culture, as different from Europe as the Ottoman empire?

I read somewhere that Peter reforms came on the right timing. Had they come before, the West may have oblied Russia to adopt a Western form of Christianity if she wanted western technology and commerce (as the Portuguese did with the Ethiopians and the Spanish did with the Japanese in the XVI century). As Russia wouldn't have accepted that (as nor Japan or Ethiopia did), the result would have been an isolationist Russia, who might reject not only western Christianity, but also western technology, commerce and science.
Had the reforms come in the XIX century, it might have been to late: of the several countries who tried to reform in thet century (Egypt, the Ottoman empire, Persia, Siam, etc.) only Japan was entirely succesful. Russia might end up partitioned among her more advanced western neighbours.

The XVIII century was a good timing, because Europe was more tolerant in terms of religion, but the gap between her and the rest of the world wasn't that great yet.

What do you think???

 

[rcduggan]

As Russia wouldn't have accepted that (as nor Japan or Ethiopia did),

Two things I would like to point out: Ethiopia was a Catholic state for a few years in the 16th century. And before the Tokugawa persecution of Christianity, it was very strong in Japan, and even after remained there (the Kirishitan numbered at least several tens of thousands on Kyushu alone in the 19th century). During the Sengoku era (Warring states), several daimyo were Catholics: the Omura, Arima, and especially the Ōtomo all had prominent converts to Catholicism.


Another way to get a backwards Russia: have the Old Believers dominate Russia in the 17th century. They create a technophobic theocracy which encompasses all of Russia, the most backwards nation in Europe.

 

[Lysandros Aikiedes]

If Russia remains in it's backwards, medieval cultural state, which of it's European or Asiatic neighbours are going to take advantage of them. I reckon that either Sweden or the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth would at least nipple away at some of it's land area. Perhaps the Crimean and Kazahk Tarters might consider the Russians to be fair game as well.

 

[rcduggan]

If Russia remains in it's backwards, medieval cultural state, which of it's European or Asiatic neighbours are going to take advantage of them. I reckon that either Sweden or the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth would at least nipple away at some of it's land area. Perhaps the Crimean and Kazahk Tarters might consider the Russians to be fair game as well.

By this point the Crimean khanate was too weak to attack Russia. There were no Kazakh Tatars AFAIK, but Astrakhan and the other khanates had already been subjugated.

 

[Admiral Brown]

Two things I would like to point out: Ethiopia was a Catholic state for a few years in the 16th century. And before the Tokugawa persecution of Christianity, it was very strong in Japan, and even after remained there (the Kirishitan numbered at least several tens of thousands on Kyushu alone in the 19th century). During the Sengoku era (Warring states), several daimyo were Catholics: the Omura, Arima, and especially the Ōtomo all had prominent converts to Catholicism.

Yes, you are right. But how this that ended??? The Portuguese were expelled from Ethiopia, the Spaniards from Japan, and Christians were heavily prosecuted in Japan. I didn't mean that no Russian would have turned to Western Christianity. If there had been no risk of conversions, there would have been no risk at all in welcoming western merchants and missionaries.

The risk was precisely that some people, including high nobles, and sometimes even members of the Court, might have accepted the Western Faith. But, as you know, this always causes resistance in traditional societies. And, if the people who bring new products and new tech are the ones who bring new religious ideas, it is quite likely that those who reject the new religious ideas will also reject overseas commerce and new technologies. Or, at least, they will try to limit the influx of new ideas and commerce as much as they can, even if it's only in order to avoid the entrance of new ideas.

And, given that the tech difference between the different centers of civilisation in Eurasia wasn't very high, it wouldn't have been difficult for reactionnary sectors to expell westerns and to isolate the country. But this would have lead to undesirable consequences in the long term.

This is why I think that if a Peter the Great analogous had been born in, let's say, the second half of the XVI century, an he had tried to introduce western tech, ideas and commerce, he might have introduced inadvertedly western religious ideas, because the three were to hard to separete in those days. The reaction that would probably follow might have been even stronger that the one of the Old-believers IOTL, because the new ideas couldn't have been presented as a return to a pure form of Orthodox Christianity. Reactionary sectors migh have reject not only western religious ideas, but all western ideas and tech.

Another way to get a backwards Russia: have the Old Believers dominate Russia in the 17th century. They create a technophobic theocracy which encompasses all of Russia, the most backwards nation in Europe.

This is an interesting possibility.

I wonder how Russia would have been seen in Europe in this TL.

 

[Lysandros Aikiedes]

By this point the Crimean khanate was too weak to attack Russia. There were no Kazakh Tatars AFAIK, but Astrakhan and the other khanates had already been subjugated.

Oh yeah, it was Ivan Grozniy did them in. I forgot about that.

Well, if Russia doesn't have someone like Peter I to shape them up, they're still going to get creamed by the likes of Sweden and Poland.

 

[Dr Pervez Hoodbhoy]

Well, if Russia doesn't have someone like Peter I to shape them up, they're still going to get creamed by the likes of Sweden and Poland.

I don't know about the Poles, Russia had managed to turn the balance of power in its favor in the 17th century and the country was weak internally.

So Eastern Europe would be divided between a backwards Russia, an unstable Poland-Lithuania, a declining Ottoman Empire, and an unpopular Sweden, with Austria, Brandenburg-Prussia and Venice waiting on the margins and some vassals (the Cossacks, Crimea, Transylvania, the Romanian Principalities, Courland, and Ragusa) up for grabs. Anything could happen.

 

[Stalker]

Oh, a continuous argument about what Peter would have accompished and what he reay accomplished.
My thesa are the following:
1. Reforming Russia - in more subtle way - had already started before Peter, at his father's reign. Alexey Mikhayovich started with gradual army reforms, actively hiring mercenaries of 30 Years War as instructors, forming professional Strelets regiments and European shaping New Formation Troops etc, he also fostered European trade but the first attempts were still awkward because Pskov and Novgorod merchants were extremey unsatisfied with the fact that "the Germans" deat directiy with suppliers in Moscow thus depriving them of their "piece of bread"... But the government at that time tried to foster more merchant shipbuilding. Actually, there also was internal Reigious (Niconian) Reformation, active coonisation of Siberia, new mines and trade routs and many other facts that the political, economic and cutural life of Moscovia started to change. Peter only added to the pace but, IMO, his refomation despite being successful in may areas, brought no less harm to the whole development simply by final pushing the rural population into servitude.
2. Rzecz Pospolita has undergone "The Ruin" and cannot be considered as Eastern European superpower any more, its system of greatest rights for Magnates and nobility - Szlachta -with Sejm eecting kings proved ineffective in the long run because of continuous feuds between the magnates and Swedish intervention. It should be still accounted for but not in the way of aggression.

 

[Redbeard]

I believe the Polish-Lithuanian Empire fell mainly to internal weaknesses and of external enemies I think the Swedes were more important (than the 17th/18th century Russians), but I will not claim any deep knowledge to the subject. From my superficial impression of the period and place the Polish-Lithuanian chance already had broken its back by the time of Peter the Great.

And of course the reforms and developments in Russia were not 100% reliant on Peter, but it is difficult to overlook the tremendous importance his person had on events. IMHO Russia sans Peter will be as impossible to subdue as in OTL, but much less extrovert - and that of course leave a lot of opportunities to the Swedes of early 18th century. I imagine their hold on Estonia and Ingermannland (province E. of Estonia) has a good chance to consolidate, but in order to be "safe" I think they need to stay in the saddle until late 19th century, when Sweden had a major population surplus ready to emmigrate (wonder how Minnesota will look/sound in this ATL?).

If that can be the case is IMHO much dependent on what happens in Russia. Russia can't/won't stay cut off from the rest of the world for ever, and the next Peter could very well arrive in a few decades. OTOH I can easily imagine (a) Peter falling to a successful "counterrevolution" - which then over the next century or two make a virtue of defending old Russian values - i.e. fighting foreign influence - but also leaving little surplus or motivation to be a player in the international game.

Next the fate of Sweden in the next two centuries of course is importnat. In OTL they pretty much broke their back on being engaged vs. both Russia, Denmark-Norway and various European opponents (simultaneously or in short order), but here they at least can leave out the Russians for a while. I doubt the great powers will let Sweden gain control over the Baltic Entrances (i.e. Denmark), but Sweden could very well increase its commitment in various European (N.German) questions. That could go any way - and several reasonably plausible, but very different ATLs could be made.

Regards

Steffen Redbeard

 

[Redbeard]

Its a little known fact, but not only humanity, but civilisation developed in Africa. In fact. well into the 17th century, Africa was more advanced then the rest of the world. However, starting with the discovery of SubSahara by Columbus, as well as the red people of Atlantis- the peaceful, wise and frinedly people of Atlantis and Subsahara proved an outlet from which Europe adopted technology. We stupidly call Atlantis America, though, because were stupid. The rennaisance, reformation and were because directly a result of these peoples. The West didn't want their own people to know how inferior they were, and so betrayed the trusting great civilisations of Atlantis and Subsahara and, by 1900, had destroyed enough that their lie of primitiveness was convincing. Only know is TRUTH unravelling, as the truth is implanted on our very genes.

Gone, due to burning and massacring and evilness, were the great walls of the Congo. Gone, the mighty industry, borne in 200 bc, in South Africa. And gone technology, we lost and failed ot steal and adopt to ouw own evil ends. Moron people criticise pagans- they are not intelligent enough to realise those pagan "gods" were representations of the ancestors of those who worship them, ancestors empowered as they were by scientific and spiritual knowledge that makes them seem like superhumans to ur modern mind. The west stole the technology, although not the great spritual magic as dense as we are, and so we cannot hope to equal the skills of the ancinet African ancestors.
We slaughtered them, peaceful as they were. The current ecological rage is Gaia screaming out at our atrocity in destroying those who were in tune with her. We must recover what we can for those who were so superior to us. Katrina was a warning!

Not one of our modern achievements is eve nhalf our own contribution. Most of it is the result of the great SubSahara's contribution to science. The reason Jews are so succesful is because they are the sole remaining caretakers of that knowledge. Why do you think the West even now wants to anniohiliate them? Cos they hold a secret that would cripple our historical arrogance. We should embrace them, though, and compell them to make known the old truths. And thus Gaia will restore her blessing of our dominion of the great imperium of the Gaia.

Sure...

Regards

Steffen Redbeard
Batman and Emperor of China - and inventor of a contraption so that I can keep my fingers warm without sticking them inside my coat like that silly upstart Napoleon - rulers need all hands!

 

[Umbral]

IMHO Russia sans Peter will be as impossible to subdue as in OTL, but much less extrovert - and that of course leave a lot of opportunities to the Swedes of early 18th century. I imagine their hold on Estonia and Ingermannland (province E. of Estonia) has a good chance to consolidate, but in order to be "safe" I think they need to stay in the saddle until late 19th century, when Sweden had a major population surplus ready to emmigrate (wonder how Minnesota will look/sound in this ATL?).

Steffen Redbeard

Russia, even if not subdued, could still be reduced. A situation where Russia permanently lost its Baltic access.....well it jst occurs to me that there is a self-reinforcing process possible here. In OTL Russia is not landlocked. A more isolationist, weaker Russia could lose a lot of its harbors. The Baltic, Murmansk, Far East could all go. I am more uncertain about the Black Sea and Archangelsk areas.

But each such loss will reduce trade and increase isolationism.

 

[rcduggan]

Sure...

Regards

Steffen Redbeard
Batman and Emperor of China - and inventor of a contraption so that I can keep my fingers warm without sticking them inside my coat like that silly upstart Napoleon - rulers need all hands!

Psst: Ignore.

 

[Tony Jones]

Another way to get a backwards Russia: have the Old Believers dominate Russia in the 17th century. They create a technophobic theocracy which encompasses all of Russia, the most backwards nation in Europe.

I did that in Gurkani Alam. Though because of their neighbours taking advantage of their lack of development they did have to modernise and develop to some extent...