WI: No EE (BAC) Lightning?

Riain

Banned
Add to that complacent senior management at the aircraft manufacturers and an aversion to mergers until too late. Or cooperation on basic infrastructure.

I can see why the Government pushed industry consolidation, only HSA has enough market capitalisation to undertake the big contracts that were looming in the late 50s, but I think if the Government is going to intervene in the industry it should ensure that industry gets the work it needs to survive. Declaring manned combat aircraft obsolescent and following this with converting old day fighters into FGA/FR and buying an interim manned interceptor is not the way too go about this, even if things like the F.155 and the mach 2 bomber had to go. Similarly having BEA cut the Trident down to smaller than what HSA thought would sell, and BOAC slagging off at the VC10 so that the 28' Super 200 stretch became the uneconomical 13' Super stretch shows a lack of support for the industry.

These days I'm of the opinion that the Lightning, Trident and VC10 could have 'saved' the British aviation industry and massively enhanced Britain's hard and soft power globally.
 

Riain

Banned
Good performance but poor avionics and missile load. Not sure there's room for the Lightning radar.

There isn't.

The Mirage III Cyrano II radar had a 15" dish and a range of about 40km, while the Lightning F1 the AI23 had a 21" dish and a range of about 70km, increasing to about 110km for the F3 AI23B.
 
There isn't.

The Mirage III Cyrano II radar had a 15" dish and a range of about 40km, while the Lightning F1 the AI23 had a 21" dish and a range of about 70km, increasing to about 110km for the F3 AI23B.
Thanks, thought so.

Regarding mergers, i agree. Probably the best time for them is the late 1940s.

As you say, there is also a need for a steady stream of orders from then. The Sandysstorm was in some ways too late and too abrupt.
 

Riain

Banned
Thanks, thought so.

Regarding mergers, i agree. Probably the best time for them is the late 1940s.

As you say, there is also a need for a steady stream of orders from then. The Sandysstorm was in some ways too late and too abrupt.

The TL for the Sandystorm is:
  • 7 November 1956 Suez Crisis ends in failure.
  • 9 January 1957 Eden resigned as PM and from Parliament.
  • 14 January 1957 Duncan Sandys becomes Minister of Defence
  • 4 April 1957 the White Paper is tabled in Parliament.
5 months after international humiliation at Suez and 3 months after the fall of the PM in disgrace and installation of a brand new Defence Minister it shouldn't be surprising that one particular aspect of the 57 WP missed the mark. That said, given Sandys wartime experience with rockets and missiles he might have gone off the deep end even without the national upheaval that Suez caused, after all it's not as if the US and USSR weren't mad for rockets and missiles at the time.

Personally I think 1957 is a pretty good time for a radical PoD, as long as the decisions that are made are the correct ones, or at least not hugely damaging. H-bombs made WW3 unfightable the way A-bombs had not, forcing a move toward limited wars while military aviation technology had progressed to a point where a single plane could be supersonic, radar-equipped, all-weather capable and last for 20-25 years rather than 10-12 years. The real problem with Sandys is that he made a bad choice and forced Britain down a highly damaging road, when faced with the same circumstances could have set Britain on a path to realistic success, modest compared to the US and USSR but far better than she achieved IOTL.
 
If the premise is that the Lightning is canceled in 1957 would they look at the Canadian Arrow which has not been canceled as of yet and well along in development?
Part of the driver for the 1957 Defence White Paper was cost cutting idiotically SAM's were seen as a cheaper option despite their lack of flexibility, poor mobility or vulnerability to countermeasures. The Arrow would certainly have been a good fit for UK air defence with it's long range, powerful radar and loiter times, it was however bloody expensive and didn't do anything the cancelled thin wing Javelin was not projected to do.
 
Yep, the closer you look the more obvious it becomes that the Lightning was the right choice, it ticks so many boxes.
There were studies of Avon and Spey engined Mirage III intended as Hunter replacements in the late 1960's, the UK engines dramatically extended range/payload.
 

Riain

Banned
There were studies of Avon and Spey engined Mirage III intended as Hunter replacements in the late 1960's, the UK engines dramatically extended range/payload.

Dassault was offering the Avon as an option to Australia in the early 60s, the big advantage was that an Avon Mirage could ferry to Singapore from Darwin (or maybe Christmas Island, I can't recall). However the Mirage waa designed around the Atar and the RAAF preferred this design integrity so chose the Atar. When Rolls Royce Australia found out about this they applied pressure on politicians hoping to get this decision reversed, which didn't happen.

IIRC the Spey studies came a bit later.
 
If you accept subsonic maximum speeds you may as well use Canberra’s with extended loiter, and room for crew and large radar and multiple missile carriage. At the end of the day the air defence task was to carry radar large enough to see and aim at Soviet bombers and carry as many missiles as then possible to throw at them. What the Lightening brought was fast reaction time from the ground. Once it got up there it’s was soon ready to go back down and have a good drink.
 
Last edited:
If you accept subsonic maximum speeds you may as well use Canberra’s with extended loiter, and room for crew and large radar and multimate missile carriage. At the end of the day the air defence task was to carry radar large enough to see and aim at Soviet bombers and carry as many missiles as then possible to throw at them. What the Lightening brought was fast reaction time from the ground. Once it got up there it’s was soon ready to go back down and have a good drink.
That's a cool idea! An RAF equivalent of the F6D Missileer, right? What would it be armed with?
 

Riain

Banned
That's a cool idea! An RAF equivalent of the F6D Missileer, right? What would it be armed with?

The huge, radar guided Red Dean was cancelled in 1956. There were studies of SARH guided Red Tops known as Blue Dolphin in 1962-63 as a weapon for the P1154, and I believe there was some halting work on SARH missiles between 1956-62 so presumably a missile truck Canberra would use one of these. However the subsonic missile truck as a practical idea in 1960 is a non starter.
 
16527054371_00924f4c90_b.jpg

Would the Fairy Delta 2 fill the Lightning's role if the development was advanced enough before Sandy's?
 

Riain

Banned
Basically 3 combat aircraft survived the Sandystorm and his almost 3 years as Defence Minister: the Hunter FGA/FR, Lightning and GOR339 which became the TSR2. What Britain needed to discharge its 1957-68 Defence Policy was a single, capable tactical fighter, one that could intercept Mach 2 bombers in Britain, conduct air superiority and ground attack/recce in Germany and East of Suez and strafe rebels in Aden. This aircraft should be ready in 1960 because the RAF has no supersonic aircraft and be viable for 20 years.

Something like the P1121 or Phantom would be ideal, but they aren't available until after 1965 leaving the Lightning as the only suitable aircraft by default.
 

marathag

Banned
What Britain needed to discharge its 1957-68 Defence Policy was a single, capable tactical fighter, one that could intercept Mach 2 bombers in Britain, conduct air superiority and ground attack/recce in Germany and East of Suez and strafe rebels in Aden. This aircraft should be ready in 1960 because the RAF has no supersonic aircraft and be viable for 20 years.

Something like the P1121 or Phantom would be ideal, but they aren't available until after 1965 leaving the Lightning as the only suitable aircraft by default.
1634863313234.jpeg

Crusader III
Mach 2+ Guns and Missiles, plus decent Radar and Firecontrol
USN wanted just Missiles, and didn't think being a dogfighter was important anymore

And Vought is willing to deal, if production is at hand in 1958
 

Riain

Banned
View attachment 689362
Crusader III
Mach 2+ Guns and Missiles, plus decent Radar and Firecontrol
USN wanted just Missiles, and didn't think being a dogfighter was important anymore

And Vought is willing to deal, if production is at hand in 1958

The fire control system overwhelmed the pilot, it likely needed a second crew member.

In whole of government terms what advantage would the Super Crusader offer over the Lightning?
 

marathag

Banned
The fire control system overwhelmed the pilot, it likely needed a second crew member.

In whole of government terms what advantage would the Super Crusader offer over the Lightning?
Yet the Lightning pilot was expected to do the same thing?
The big thing it gets you, is a dependable J75 that carried missiles and guns at over Mach 2 in FY 1959, with twice the range
2036 US gallons of fuel carried internally, more than twice as much as the Lightning
The first operational Lightning, designated the F.1, was designed as an interceptor to defend the V Force airfields in conjunction with the V Force airfield's own "last ditch" Bristol Bloodhound missile defences from enemy nuclear-armed bomber attack long enough for the also nuclear-armed V Force bombers to take-off and get clear of their airfields, airfields which, along with the dispersal airfields, would be the highest priority targets in the UK for enemy nuclear weapons. To best perform this intercept mission, emphasis was placed on rate-of-climb, acceleration, and speed, rather than range - originally a radius of operation of 150 miles from the V bomber airfields was specified - and combat endurance. It was equipped with two 30 mm ADEN cannon in front of the cockpit windscreen and an interchangeable fuselage weapons pack containing either an additional two ADEN cannon, 48 two-inch (51 mm) unguided air-to-air rockets, or two de Havilland Firestreak air-to-air missiles; a heavy loadout optimized for damaging large aircraft, missile guidance and ranging, as well as search and track functions, mainly were provided via the Ferranti AI.23 onboard radar.

The next two Lightning variants, the F.1A and F.2, were steady but relatively minor refinements of the design; the next variant, the F.3, was a major departure. The F.3 had higher thrust Rolls-Royce Avon 301R engines, a larger squared-off fin and strengthened inlet cone allowing a service clearance to Mach 2.0 (2,450 km/h) (the F.1, F.1A and F.2 were limited to Mach 1.7 (2,083 km/h)). The A.I.23B radar and Red Top missile offered a forward hemisphere attack capability and deletion of the nose cannon. The new engines and fin made the F.3 the highest performance Lightning yet, but with an even higher fuel consumption and resulting shorter range. The next variant, the F.6, was already in development, but there was a need for an interim solution to partially address the F.3’s shortcomings, the F.3A.

The F.3A introduced two improvements: a new, non-jettisonable, 610-imperial-gallon (2,800 L) ventral fuel tank, and a new, kinked, conically cambered wing leading edge, incorporating a slightly larger leading edge fuel tank, raising the total usable internal fuel to 716 imperial gallons (3,260 L). The conically cambered wing noticeably improved manoeuvrability, especially at higher altitudes, and the ventral tank nearly doubled available fuel. The increased fuel was very welcome, but the lack of cannon armament was felt to be a deficiency. It was thought that cannons were desirable to fire warning shots in the intercept mission.

The F.6 was the ultimate Lightning version to see British service. Originally, it was nearly identical to the F.3A with the exception that it could carry two 260-imperial-gallon (1,200 L) ferry tanks on pylons over the wings. These tanks were jettisonable in an emergency, and gave the F.6 a substantially improved deployment capability. There remained one glaring shortcoming: the lack of cannon. This was finally rectified in the form of a modified ventral tank with two ADEN cannons mounted in the front. The addition of the cannons and their ammunition decreased the tank's fuel capacity from 610 to 535 imperial gallons (2,770 to 2,430 L), but the cannon made the F.6 a “real fighter” again.

The other thing, the Prototypes noted the Canopy limiting the speed to Mach 2.3, with improved unit speed was expected to get near Mach 2.7
 

Riain

Banned
Yet the Lightning pilot was expected to do the same thing?
The big thing it gets you, is a dependable J75 that carried missiles and guns at over Mach 2 in FY 1959, with twice the range
2036 US gallons of fuel carried internally, more than twice as much as the Lightning
The first operational Lightning, designated the F.1, was designed as an interceptor to defend the V Force airfields in conjunction with the V Force airfield's own "last ditch" Bristol Bloodhound missile defences from enemy nuclear-armed bomber attack long enough for the also nuclear-armed V Force bombers to take-off and get clear of their airfields, airfields which, along with the dispersal airfields, would be the highest priority targets in the UK for enemy nuclear weapons. To best perform this intercept mission, emphasis was placed on rate-of-climb, acceleration, and speed, rather than range - originally a radius of operation of 150 miles from the V bomber airfields was specified - and combat endurance. It was equipped with two 30 mm ADEN cannon in front of the cockpit windscreen and an interchangeable fuselage weapons pack containing either an additional two ADEN cannon, 48 two-inch (51 mm) unguided air-to-air rockets, or two de Havilland Firestreak air-to-air missiles; a heavy loadout optimized for damaging large aircraft, missile guidance and ranging, as well as search and track functions, mainly were provided via the Ferranti AI.23 onboard radar.

The next two Lightning variants, the F.1A and F.2, were steady but relatively minor refinements of the design; the next variant, the F.3, was a major departure. The F.3 had higher thrust Rolls-Royce Avon 301R engines, a larger squared-off fin and strengthened inlet cone allowing a service clearance to Mach 2.0 (2,450 km/h) (the F.1, F.1A and F.2 were limited to Mach 1.7 (2,083 km/h)). The A.I.23B radar and Red Top missile offered a forward hemisphere attack capability and deletion of the nose cannon. The new engines and fin made the F.3 the highest performance Lightning yet, but with an even higher fuel consumption and resulting shorter range. The next variant, the F.6, was already in development, but there was a need for an interim solution to partially address the F.3’s shortcomings, the F.3A.

The F.3A introduced two improvements: a new, non-jettisonable, 610-imperial-gallon (2,800 L) ventral fuel tank, and a new, kinked, conically cambered wing leading edge, incorporating a slightly larger leading edge fuel tank, raising the total usable internal fuel to 716 imperial gallons (3,260 L). The conically cambered wing noticeably improved manoeuvrability, especially at higher altitudes, and the ventral tank nearly doubled available fuel. The increased fuel was very welcome, but the lack of cannon armament was felt to be a deficiency. It was thought that cannons were desirable to fire warning shots in the intercept mission.

The F.6 was the ultimate Lightning version to see British service. Originally, it was nearly identical to the F.3A with the exception that it could carry two 260-imperial-gallon (1,200 L) ferry tanks on pylons over the wings. These tanks were jettisonable in an emergency, and gave the F.6 a substantially improved deployment capability. There remained one glaring shortcoming: the lack of cannon. This was finally rectified in the form of a modified ventral tank with two ADEN cannons mounted in the front. The addition of the cannons and their ammunition decreased the tank's fuel capacity from 610 to 535 imperial gallons (2,770 to 2,430 L), but the cannon made the F.6 a “real fighter” again.

The other thing, the Prototypes noted the Canopy limiting the speed to Mach 2.3, with improved unit speed was expected to get near Mach 2.7

The Lightning had IR missiles, the F1 & F2 had to undertake tail-chase interceptions and the F3 & F6 had a collision course interception, firing Red Tops head on, but as these are fire and forget they don't overwhelm the pilot. In any case Ferranti developed a fully hands off collision course interception system at the cost of 1.4 million pounds (when the Lightning cost 700,000) that wasn't adopted.

I'm fully aware of the performance specs of the Lightning, and how that compares in the era. The question is that does Britain abandon a home made product to take on the development into production as the lead customer of a US prototype that's a bit faster and longer ranged but isn't designed to be specifically what the RAF wanted: with the foreign exchange problems, non-productive licence costs, US export controls, lack of control over the supply chain that entails? What if all the promise of the Super Crusader actually turns to shit during the transition to production? Does the RAF need mach 2.7; what operational advantages does that provide in point interception that the Lightning was developed to meet, general RAF fighter duties that it evolved into and the multi-role export version provided?
 
Top