WI: Nixon administration (competently) pays off burglars, Watergate never fully revealed?

[GeographyDude]

. . . The effort spent to conceal a seemingly minor bit of political chicanery seemed ridiculous. In those days we assumed such spying was normal. The inept cover up is what shook folks confidence in Nixion & his staff. . .

Sometimes careless workers can drop cigs...

I’m shocked- shocked! To find that gambling is going on in here!

. . . a political science professor of mine recently noted that when the burglary came out it was a second page story in The Washington Post, which back then was considered a local/regional paper.

But what about the pulling-thread-from-wool-sweater line of reasoning?

That the Nixon administration had so many dirty tricks going on, he seemed to fear that if he acknowledged wrongdoing, they'd be no stopping the investigations.

And that's kind of what happened, right? Watergate was a series of partial admissions and continued investigations (from both Congress and the press).

Interestingly, Nixon did kind of fake "normal," and felt he was being blamed for reasons other than the acts themselves. And he was kind of right in that regard.

 

[GeographyDude]

If he fails to get healthcare through, Vietnam still falls, and Stagflation persists, what is his reputation?

probably pretty poor, and on the economics alone.

Even though people just tend to blame on economics, and not try to dive in and get better on the details, the overall economy undeniably has a huge effect on how we judge politicians.

* in OTL, the economy did improve during 1976

 

[Derek Jackson]

Ford is elected in 76 and a progressive Democrat in 80

 

[History Learner]

Ford is elected in 76 and a progressive Democrat in 80

Ford only got elevated due to the chain of succession breaking down, and otherwise would remain a high ranking GOP member in Congress but that's about it. I also don't see any room for a Progressive in 1976, given what 1972 had saw and the backlash against Washington just isn't there without Watergate and the Fall of Saigon.

 

[marathag]

I also don't see any room for a Progressive in 1976, given what 1972 had saw and the backlash against Washington just isn't there without Watergate and the Fall of Saigon.

Though the economy will still stumble on from the first Oil Shock

With Nixon doing a variation of Ford's 'Whip Inflation Now' won't work any better than more Price Controls, so that does leave 1976 as an open for the Democrats on the economy

 

[Seandineen]

Option 1: Things Stay Largely the Same!

Nixon limps along to the end of his presidency. Yes, there's rumors and investigative reporting, but it never seems to approach a threshold where it appears impeachment is likely.

Carter in 1976, Iran and stagflation in '79 and '80, and Reagan wins Nov. 1980.

South vietnam survives. Laos goes red. The wildcard is Cambodia.

 

[marathag]

Option 1: Things Stay Largely the Same!

Nixon limps along to the end of his presidency. Yes, there's rumors and investigative reporting, but it never seems to approach a threshold where it appears impeachment is likely.

Carter in 1976, Iran and stagflation in '79 and '80, and Reagan wins Nov. 1980.

Without Watergate scandal taking out Nixon after the daily Hearings on TV, and then Ford's pardon, it's really unlikely that Carter get past the 'Jimmy Who??' in the Dem Primaries.

Ford will look alot different to the US population, staying as VP, so there's few Saturday Night Live skits focused on him, fire would be towards Nixon, with Dan Aykroyd getting a lot of airtime over 1975-1976 doing that impersonation

 

[History Learner]

Though the economy will still stumble on from the first Oil Shock

With Nixon doing a variation of Ford's 'Whip Inflation Now' won't work any better than more Price Controls, so that does leave 1976 as an open for the Democrats on the economy

That's true but my thinking on the matter is that Ford was still able to make it close despite the loss of South Vietnam, his pardon of Nixon and the economy issue. The former two won't exist and I just don't see Nixon doing anything as goofy as "WIN".

 

[marathag]

and I just don't see Nixon doing anything as goofy as "WIN"

Have to do something, as the Price Controls he started with in 1970, that structure was cracking by 1974.
His 'New Economic Policy' of more price controls was to boost the economy for 1972(and the Election), but that effectwas just ephemeral , the effects of going off Gold and the price controls were coming home to roost.
Stagflation.

 

[dw93]

Nixon is remembered as an average President at least until (if) the tapes get out. South Vietnam likely doesn't fall (at least not until after January of 1977), but the economy would still tank and inflation would still be there, making the 74 midterms almost a much of a mess for the GOP as they were OTL. Nixoncare, if it happens, politically is as well received as Obamacare with the left saying it didn't go far enough and the right saying it went too far. 1976 is a toss up of an election, with Reagan or Rockefeller as the Republican nominee and Scoop Jackson, Mo Udall, or Frank Church as the Democratic nominee.

 

[History Learner]

I kinda wonder how a continuing Nixon Administration would respond to developments in Southern Africa, in particular with regards to Angola, Rhodesia and the like.

 

[GeographyDude]

South vietnam survives. Laos goes red. The wildcard is Cambodia.

Or . . .

https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/ahc-boring-1968.444586/#post-17093172
“North and South Vietnam agree to a coalition gov’t which kind of sort of works out, . . . ”

I even started a thread on this back in 2015:

Nixon negotiates successful coalition gov't in Vietnam in early 1970.
https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...alition-govt-in-vietnam-in-early-1970.341743/
“ . . . Now, are communists sneakier than average politicians? My initial gut reaction is, yes. . . ” [which is saying a lot!]

But all the same, let’s assume that it works out fair to middling.

 

[GeographyDude]

. . . the effects of going off Gold and the price controls were coming home to roost.
Stagflation.

Yes, the early 70s was ragged, and the ‘73 and ‘74 price oil shock of course, with the price of oil going from about $3 a barrel to about $12. Yes, a four-fold increase.

But by ‘76:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A191RO1Q156NBEA

3rd Quarter ‘76 GDP growth 5%​

4th Quarter ‘76 GDP growth 4.3%​

None too shabby which is a big reason the ‘76 was so close.

In my universe, quarterly GDP growth is the single most important economic number. Unemployment rate is second, and inflation rate a very close third.

 

[TripleCitizen]

If he fails to get healthcare through, Vietnam still falls, and Stagflation persists, what is his reputation?

It’d be pretty hard to have ALL of those things happen, other than stagflation, but I don’t know much about economics.

I don't think Vietnam will fall with Nixon still president. Getting the healthcare bill passed is going to make him more popular, and he is certainly able to reach across the aisle to work with the other party. That means US aid wont stop, the RVN doesn't run out of ammo, and the NVA wont overrun the nation.

I doubt the Khmer Republic would also fall, they suffered much more from American abandonment than the ARVN. Same with the Kingdom of Laos. Funnily enough, people talk about the fall of South Vietnam like it was inevitable, but the reason why the Royal Lao Army, FANK, and the ARVN disintegrated so quickly in 1975 was somewhat more due to the psychological effect of the American withdrawal of aid and troops rather than the actual physical depletion of supplies. Once the troops on the ground realized that there wasn’t going to be any more air support, ammunition, fuel, supplies and money, they quickly became extremely demoralized. On top of that, the ARVN and FANK officers did not preform well under pressure and often panicked after the withdrawal. So even a relatively small amount of support could plausibly prevent the anti-communist forces in Indochina from completely routing. Thus preserving Nixon’s legacy.

 

[Aisha Clan-Clan]

avoid fanne fox or watergate and us gets healthcare coming through imo

a non-busted nixon, or even just delayed 6-12 months watergate has UHC as part of his legacy

 

[longsword14]

Or . . .

https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/ahc-boring-1968.444586/#post-17093172
“North and South Vietnam agree to a coalition gov’t which kind of sort of works out, . . . ”

I even started a thread on this back in 2015:

Nixon negotiates successful coalition gov't in Vietnam in early 1970.
https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...alition-govt-in-vietnam-in-early-1970.341743/
“ . . . Now, are communists sneakier than average politicians? My initial gut reaction is, yes. . . ” [which is saying a lot!]

But all the same, let’s assume that it works out fair to middling.

Never going to happen.

 

[GeographyDude]

. . I doubt the Khmer Republic would also fall, they suffered much more from American abandonment than the ARVN. . .

I’m not quite following you.

The Khmer Rouge took over Cambodia in 1975 and later changed the name to Kampuchea. During the killing days from 75 through 78, which included using starvation as a weapon and directing it to less ‘popular’ people, the Khmer Rouge emphatically did not receive U.S. aid.

After Vietnam invaded Cambodia on Christmas Day 1978 and stopped the genocide by taking over the country, weirdly (or not so weirdly) we supported the Khmer Rouge in exile. And this was both the Carter and Reagan administrations. Best guess is because we wanted to deny Vietnam a victory.

 

[TripleCitizen]

I’m not quite following you.

The Khmer Rouge took over Cambodia in 1975 and later changed the name to Kampuchea. During the killing days from 75 through 78, which included using starvation as a weapon and directing it to less ‘popular’ people, the Khmer Rouge emphatically did not receive U.S. aid.

After Vietnam invaded Cambodia on Christmas Day 1978 and stopped the genocide by taking over the country, weirdly (or not so weirdly) we supported the Khmer Rouge in exile. And this was both the Carter and Reagan administrations. Best guess is because we wanted to deny Vietnam a victory.

The Khmer Republic and it’s army, FANK (it’s a French abbreviation), fought against the Khmer Rouge until 1975 when the last holdouts fell to the Khmer Rouge. The Khmer Republic was the US backed anti-communist regime, and it was just as incompetent and corrupt as most of the other forces America fought beside in Indochina.

 

[GeographyDude]

. . . The Khmer Republic was the US backed anti-communist regime, and it was just as incompetent and corrupt as most of the other forces America fought beside in Indochina.

What was lost, by backing bad regimes, or at least not making aid very conditional on improving their act, was more examples of the East Asian Miracle (1960 - present)

The major missed opportunity—

https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2017/may/tigers-tiger-cubs-economic-growth

See also the Tiger Cubs, countries like Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, and to a limited extent the Philippines.

I mean, forget about Sweden. These are the mixed economies to write home about. It's about governments supplementing markets and building them up. It's also about them changing the incentives so that real estate speculation and stock market speculation are less attractive and don't piss away people's best efforts.

*Please note: log scale.

 

[TripleCitizen]

What was lost, by backing bad regimes, or at least not making aid very conditional on improving their act, was more examples of the East Asian Miracle (1960 - present)

https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2017/may/tigers-tiger-cubs-economic-growth

See also the Tiger Cubs, countries like Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, and to a limited extent the Philippines.

I mean, forget about Sweden. These are the mixed economies to write home about. It's about governments supplementing markets and building them up. It's also about them changing the incentives so that real estate speculation and stock market speculation are less attractive and don't piss away people's best efforts.

I wasn’t arguing against that, I was just stating that the Khmer Republic was not the Khmer Rouge.