WI Hypatius becomes Emperor in 532 overthrowing Justinian?

Don_Giorgio

In January 13 a tense and angry populace arrived at the Hippodrome for the races. The Hippodrome was next to the palace complex and thus Justinian could watch from the safety of his box in the palace and preside over the races. From the start the crowd had been hurling insults at Justinian. By the end of the day, at race 22, the partisan chants had changed from "Blue" or "Green" to a unified Nίκα ("Nika", meaning "Win!" or "Conquer!"), and the crowds broke out and began to assault the palace. For the next five days the palace was under virtual siege. The fires that started during the tumult resulted in the destruction of much of the city, including the city's foremost church, the Hagia Sophia (which Justinian would later rebuild in OTL). Some of the Senators saw this as an opportunity to overthrow Justinian, as they were opposed to his new taxes and his lack of support for the nobility. The rioters, now armed and probably controlled by their allies in the Senate, also demanded that Justinian dismiss the Praefectus Praetorio Orientalis John the Cappadocian, who was responsible for tax collecting, the Quaestor Tribonianus, who was responsible for rewriting the Legal Code and of Spatharius Calepodius head of the Imperial Guard. They then declared a new emperor, Hypatius, who was a nephew of former Emperor Anastasius I.
In OTL Justinian in despair wanted to flee the city but then Theodora intervened and encouraged him to take the matter in his hands and Justinian send Belissarius Narses and Mundus to massacre the rioters...
WI Justinian had fled the city and Hypatius was proclaimed Emperor?

How is this altering History? Any thoughts?
 

trajen777

Banned
I see it in 2 possible ways:

  • New leadership is less focused on expansion and is more of a hunker down type of monarchy. The focus is on development of existing norms and defending territory. There is little growth and just a continuation of the policies of Ant. This means lots of excess capital since Justinian inherited an enormous surplus (actually the largest ever). Below are possible questions and ideas:
  • Plus ::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::;;;;;; for a new Emperor
    • Possible investment for a good Emperor would be enhancing the Balkans – building fortress in the east - securing farm land -
    • Excess capital
    • Don’t see any investment in trade since trade was looked down upon
    • The Emergence of a stronger Gothic Italy (both good and bad)
    • Would Persia have had end less war with Rome if they were not concerned about their growth.
    • If not you miss the whole 602 – 40 situation for Rome
  • Negative for new Emperor
    • Justinian was very good at finding excellent subordinates
    • Lack of the great success of Africa
    • Loss of identity of Rome
    • Plague destroyed the opportunity of a true superpower Rome for Justinian
    • The plague would still have devastated Rome but would have left it without the extended borders it had under Justinian. I think what Justinian did was correct but the plague ended up devastating Italy (because Jus. Did not have the resources to finish things off) and the rest of the territory.

 

Don_Giorgio

Interesting... if Persia doesnt engages to constant wars to ERE they could have resisted the islamic attacks in the next century... A stronger Gothic Italy could be a serious challenge for the new Emperor... But i doubt that Hypatius could have made it through... He was a mediocre military commander and a poor administrator... He was raised to the Purple only because he was a relative to a former Emperor just to piss off Justinian (plus he was the only man with "imperial" blood that the rioters could find amongst them...)
 

trajen777

Banned
If Persia could be kept as trade partner - much of the war was really about Justinian tyring to get silk from around the Persian gulf by passing the middle man -( i read somewhere that a very high % of Persian income was from Silk trade with Rome) and a East - West Roman empire could have been developed (Gothic Rome) Roman Byz. then many things could have been evaded.

However If the plauge had not happened then there would have been a very strong Bzy Rome with Justanian in control of N Africa - a non devastated Italy - and possible Spain (happened later for Justanian). This extra tax would have really made Byz a power. If the Persian war could have been avoided (forget silk) then the Muslim explosion could have been contained by a powerful Persia and Byz
 

MerryPrankster

Don_Giorgio said:
Interesting... if Persia doesnt engages to constant wars to ERE they could have resisted the islamic attacks in the next century... A stronger Gothic Italy could be a serious challenge for the new Emperor... But i doubt that Hypatius could have made it through... He was a mediocre military commander and a poor administrator... He was raised to the Purple only because he was a relative to a former Emperor just to piss off Justinian (plus he was the only man with "imperial" blood that the rioters could find amongst them...)
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Assuming Justinian is overthrown but Hypatius doesn't govern well, what might happen?
 

Don_Giorgio

MerryPrankster said:
Assuming Justinian is overthrown but Hypatius doesn't govern well, what might happen?
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Army kicks him out since he would be of no use then (he was a mere puppet in senatorial hands) and elects someone else instead more capable...
Justinian on the other hand could find refuge to a loyal province or in Italy and try to get back his throne... (if he is not captured by the rioters on his way out of Constantinople)
 

trajen777

Banned
this is a tough question really how bad would he be

Bad - just lived in splendor - did nothing - basically dit nothing good for the empire - but there is no revolution. He squanders the money left from Anastaius. No wars , military slides slowly but the country is ok. If the other Emperors are also bad (like the people after Basil 2) then the Muslim onslaught is tough to contain but a stonger Christian comm (Persains did massive devestation to the infrastructure in real world) would have given much stonger support.

Very Bad

Creates a revolution (Maurce like) that leaves Byz devestated and the Persians move in
 

MerryPrankster

Don_Giorgio said:
Army kicks him out since he would be of no use then (he was a mere puppet in senatorial hands) and elects someone else instead more capable...
Justinian on the other hand could find refuge to a loyal province or in Italy and try to get back his throne... (if he is not captured by the rioters on his way out of Constantinople)
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I was wondering if you had specific candidates for a replacement for Hypatius in mind.
 

Don_Giorgio

Don_Giorgio said:
I would say someone of the Anicii family... But i have to check this out first...
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Maybe Flavius Anicius Olybrius could be a viable candidate... he was related to Emperor Anastasius I (he was married to his niece) and to the Theodosian dynasty as his mother was granddaughter of Valentinian III and had served as Consul in 491 or Flavius Anicius Probus Counsul of 525 cousin of Olybrius.
Both of them belonged to the Roman Aristocracy which Justinian disliked... They would have accepted the throne if they had secured both the army's and the Senate's support...
 

MerryPrankster

Don_Giorgio said:
Maybe Flavius Anicius Olybrius could be a viable candidate... he was related to Emperor Anastasius I (he was married to his niece) and to the Theodosian dynasty as his mother was granddaughter of Valentinian III and had served as Consul in 491 or Flavius Anicius Probus Counsul of 525 cousin of Olybrius.
Both of them belonged to the Roman Aristocracy which Justinian disliked... They would have accepted the throne if they had secured both the army's and the Senate's support...
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Hmm...

Okay, Justinian flees the capital and Hypatius becomes Emperor.

Perhaps Justinian attempts a comeback, Hypatius screws up in response, and Flavius Aniciius Olybrius is chosen by the Army and Senate to replace Hypatius and deal with Justinian?

What was the status of Italy in 532? Could Justinian use it as a powerbase to try to seize Constantinople again?
 

Don_Giorgio

MerryPrankster said:
Hmm...

Okay, Justinian flees the capital and Hypatius becomes Emperor.

Perhaps Justinian attempts a comeback, Hypatius screws up in response, and Flavius Aniciius Olybrius is chosen by the Army and Senate to replace Hypatius and deal with Justinian?

What was the status of Italy in 532? Could Justinian use it as a powerbase to try to seize Constantinople again?
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Well Ostrogoths had a secure base in Italy and part of Dalmatia but they were ruled by the weak Athalaric who was supervised by his mother Amalasuntha and this lead to disintegration of their ties with Visigoths Vandals and Franks...
In my point of view if Justinian wants to use Italy as his power base he has to hurry because it would be a matter of time only for any Gothic noble to usurp the crown and turn hostile to ERE if they are amidst civil war after Nika Riots...
 

MerryPrankster

Don_Giorgio said:
Well Ostrogoths had a secure base in Italy and part of Dalmatia but they were ruled by the weak Athalaric who was supervised by his mother Amalasuntha and this lead to disintegration of their ties with Visigoths Vandals and Franks...
In my point of view if Justinian wants to use Italy as his power base he has to hurry because it would be a matter of time only for any Gothic noble to usurp the crown and turn hostile to ERE if they are amidst civil war after Nika Riots...
Click to expand...

Would a civil war erupt if Justinian flees and someone else is made Emperor?

Hmm...might we have an analogy to the Justin who lived in Crimea with the Pechenegs or something after having his nose cut off, returned, and took horrible revenges?

Perhaps Justinian marries some Gothic woman and lives in exile for a time, then returns to take over if Hypatius or a successor misgoverns.

That would involve Theodora getting killed at some point, though. I think Justinian was quite attached to her.
 

Don_Giorgio

MerryPrankster said:
Would a civil war erupt if Justinian flees and someone else is made Emperor?

Hmm...might we have an analogy to the Justin who lived in Crimea with the Pechenegs or something after having his nose cut off, returned, and took horrible revenges?

Perhaps Justinian marries some Gothic woman and lives in exile for a time, then returns to take over if Hypatius or a successor misgoverns.

That would involve Theodora getting killed at some point, though. I think Justinian was quite attached to her.
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I agree... if Theodora dies Justinian would have lost any interest to the throne... The problem is where would Justinian go if Goths depose Amalasuntha? Persians could be a choice... But then Romans would consider him a traitor... Visigoths in Spain? too far away to reclaim his throne... Franks? They were too busy kicking Visigoths out of southern Gaul... So Gothic Italy is his only choice but he has to act fast because of the weak state of Athalaric as a ruler...
 
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