WI: Greatest Mystery of the 19th Century - Napoleon Disappears!

[alexmilman]

What were Bernadotte's relations with the Prussians? Any way he could be "played off" as a counterbalance to an overly-revanchist Prussia?
Of course, he would expect something in exchange....

His Army of the North included Prussians and while there were complaints about him being too cautious, his strategy proved to be justified: victories of Großbeeren and Dennewitz saved Berlin and dwarfed Napoleon’s plan to kick Prussia out of war. He was seemingly cooperating well with Blucher (at least during the Dennewitz operation): in the war of the 4th Coalition he accepted Blucher’s surrender and allowed to add to the text of convention formula flattering for Blucher, something along the lines that he was forced to capitulate by the circumstances; just as his treatment of the Swedes during the same war, this proved to be helpful few years later (the same goes for the Saxons).
For Dennewits he was awarded the Prussian Grand Cross of the Iron Cross (plus Russian St.George 1st Class and Austrian Order of Maria Theresa. Friedrich Wilhelm von Bülow was awarded the Grand Cross of the Swedish Order of the Sword on the battlefield by Bernadotte. So probably both side were reasonably OK with each other.

Not sure how he could be “played off” on the issue which was not of his immediate interest.

 

[unprincipled peter]

So, how quickly can a truce/peace be established? Do we see a corollary to the Congress of Vienna? Or do the various countries settle individually, which likely leads to a more uneasy peace amongst the previously anti French factions (which could be exploited by adroit French diplomacy to establish France's place in the new world order)?

What are the effects in other areas of the world? An earlier truce might be bad news for the USA, with Britain able to turn more resources to North America before USA figures out how to fight. The Spanish Empire is already on the road to collapse. Does peace a year or two early make any difference?

 

[Aghasverov]

So, how quickly can a truce/peace be established? Do we see a corollary to the Congress of Vienna? Or do the various countries settle individually, which likely leads to a more uneasy peace amongst the previously anti French factions (which could be exploited by adroit French diplomacy to establish France's place in the new world order)?

What are the effects in other areas of the world? An earlier truce might be bad news for the USA, with Britain able to turn more resources to North America before USA figures out how to fight. The Spanish Empire is already on the road to collapse. Does peace a year or two early make any difference?

Could make a huge difference. IOTL the War of the Sixth Coalition began pretty much immediately on Nap's return to France after the Russian catastrophe, as soon as he was able to build his forces back up. If Regent Joseph (I'll assume it is Joseph, for this) is able to keep confusion from leading to chaos early on, as soon as it's apparent that Napoleon's gone, he may be able to stave off another war - or alternately the UK and whatever allies it can put together will try to take immediate advantage of the situation.
I could see an Alt-CoV emerging as a "multi-stage" process: 1) Cease-fire with the UK and withdrawal from Spain; 2) a "Bonaparte Family and Friends" conference, to officially establish the Regency government and work out details of the relations between the Empire and the "Model States", and a few of the most important and reliable Rheinbund states. Maybe even restore Holland to Louis the Neurotic ; 3) a more "General Conference" to work out grievances with the other continental powers - Prussia and Austria particularly. Relations with Russia, the UK and the Bourbons might be better settled individually.
And yes, a truce (even if a somewhat uneasy truce) between the Empire and the UK could free up a couple more battalions to send across the Atlantic to deal with those pesky former colonists in North America

 

[alexmilman]

Could make a huge difference. IOTL the War of the Sixth Coalition began pretty much immediately on Nap's return to France after the Russian catastrophe, as soon as he was able to build his forces back up. If Regent Joseph (I'll assume it is Joseph, for this) is able to keep confusion from leading to chaos early on, as soon as it's apparent that Napoleon's gone, he may be able to stave off another war - or alternately the UK and whatever allies it can put together will try to take immediate advantage of the situation.
I could see an Alt-CoV emerging as a "multi-stage" process: 1) Cease-fire with the UK and withdrawal from Spain; 2) a "Bonaparte Family and Friends" conference, to officially establish the Regency government and work out details of the relations between the Empire and the "Model States", and a few of the most important and reliable Rheinbund states. Maybe even restore Holland to Louis the Neurotic ; 3) a more "General Conference" to work out grievances with the other continental powers - Prussia and Austria particularly. Relations with Russia, the UK and the Bourbons might be better settled individually.
And yes, a truce (even if a somewhat uneasy truce) between the Empire and the UK could free up a couple more battalions to send across the Atlantic to deal with those pesky former colonists in North America

You forgot that in your TL Austria and Prussia are still allies of France. Which makes (the big players):
(a) Two formal enemies, Russia and Britain
(b) One very reluctant ally, Prussia
(c) One very cautious ally, Austria


Britain - restoration of the Spanish Bourbons, French evacuation of Spain and abolishment of the CS (which would be lauded by most of Europe). Demilitarization of Antwerpen. Britain returns some of the captured French colonies including Guadeloupe.
Russia - abolishment of the CS, French evacuation of Prussia, restoration of Oldenburg and a proposal to discuss the “Polish issue” with a hint that France is sympathetic to the idea of making the Duchy a Kingdom and Alexander its king.
Prussia - removal of the French troops from its territory and discussion about return of some lost territories (at Westphalia expense?). All this goes as a reward for a loyalty (blahblahblah). If Taurogen already happened, asking the King of Prussia to pardon Yorke (nice gesture toward the Prussian military) and offering participation in the discussion regarding the fate of Poland. Prussia is not, yet, in a position to demand a piece of Saxony.
Austria - in this schema little or nothing except for the territories which are meaningless for France outside of the CS framework, the Illyrian Provinces. Having half-Hapsburg on the throne of France should be compensation on its own and Austria is isolated, anyway.

Sweden - gets back Pomerania and receives Russian, French, Prussian blessing regarding Norway. Probably the Brits would not mind either. Instead of the foolish game of getting and selling Guadeloupe Bernadotte is receiving a lump sum of money as a compensation for the lands and revenues confiscated by Napoleon (perhaps Desire gets some nice rent “under the table” and a better residence in Paris). Off he marches to have his little victorious war (France, Prussia and Russia can press Denmark diplomatically but perhaps even this would not be needed).

French border is on the Rhine, Holland is independent (but signs an agreement regarding free navigation on the Scheldt), the rest goes either to the old owners or to Prussia as a compensation for the Polish lands lost.

No real need in Vienna-like conference, just bi-lateral talks with Britain and Austria and tri-lateral with Russia and Prussia. No need to bother the Poles with the unnecessary details about their future and realization of these plans is going to be Alexander’s headache. 😂 If there is a general conference, it is not in Vienna and France is generally sympathetic to the Prussian demands, within the reasonable limits, and to the Russian plans regarding Poland. Britain does not have too many subjects to bitch about (Hanover? Talk to the Prussians) and, with the happy Russia and Prussia, it is pretty much marginalized. Austria is trying to be on both sides but, with the other big players being reasonably satisfied, it is more or less marginalize.

Slogans of the new reign: “Empire is peace” and “All that is French must be in France!” (*) - which justifies border on the Rhine (the natives on the left bank were under the French rule so long that they are practically French)

(*) Stolen from “The law is a law” - a movie that provides a comprehensive insight on what is “French” and who are “Frenchmen”.

 

[Bluetooth]

I feel like Napoleon disappearing after a major defeat but before a definitive defeat would only amplify his nature as a tragic and Romantic figure in the years to come

I suspect that his Dynasty would remain in power and France would keep their Rhine borders but be forced to release most of their client/vassal states

 

[Wendell]

I could see a cult/new religious movement forming centered on the disappearance of the emperor.

 

[Aghasverov]

I feel like Napoleon disappearing after a major defeat but before a definitive defeat would only amplify his nature as a tragic and Romantic figure in the years to come

I suspect that his Dynasty would remain in power and France would keep their Rhine borders but be forced to release most of their client/vassal states

Oh yes, the legend would only grow with time... I could see monumental cenotaphs being erected everywhere in honour of the "departed" Empereur... and maybe a couple for the lost troops of the Russian campaign
I think the Rheinbund might could be held together... maybe with a working constitution and a significant degree of autonomy from the Empire proper...
Italy may be a bit more problematic... Lot of competing interests there...

 

[Aghasverov]

I could see a cult/new religious movement forming centered on the disappearance of the emperor.

Not so sure about a cult... Nap himself, even as megalomanic as he was, would've frowned on such things... but then again that's never stopped something like that from evolving

 

[Wendell]

Not so sure about a cult... Nap himself, even as megalomanic as he was, would've frowned on such things... but then again that's never stopped something like that from evolving

The Emperor is missing, so how can he object if some semiliterate peasant proclaims that he was the second coming?

 

[Aghasverov]

The Emperor is missing, so how can he object if some semiliterate peasant proclaims that he was the second coming?

IIRC he somewhat bemoaned that all the "Great things" had already been done... don't remember the quote exactly, but something like "if I were to do as Alexander did and proclaim myself a God, there isn't a fishwife who wouldn't hiss me"
At least he had some sense of perspective

 

[Wendell]

IIRC he somewhat bemoaned that all the "Great things" had already been done... don't remember the quote exactly, but something like "if I were to do as Alexander did and proclaim myself a God, there isn't a fishwife who wouldn't hiss me"
At least he had some sense of perspective

It was hard to deify oneself in the age of reason, but someone else doing it to one after one mysteriously disappears after such a storied history of conquests is another matter.

 

[alexmilman]

I feel like Napoleon disappearing after a major defeat but before a definitive defeat would only amplify his nature as a tragic and Romantic figure in the years to come

I suspect that his Dynasty would remain in power and France would keep their Rhine borders but be forced to release most of their client/vassal states

Indeed. And keep in mind that the whole disaster had been blamed (by the French) exclusively on the climate and that it was pointed out that Napoleon did not suffer a single defeat (*) and that even at Berezina he won by managing to outmaneuver the Russians and to save a fraction of his army. The story would go along the lines of him just planning a new brilliant campaign which would dealt a deadly blow to the Russians by tricking them into (finally) sticking their necks by advancing beyond their borders when disaster happened.

________________________________________
(*) Conveniently defined as a complete annihilation of his army. Based upon this criteria Friedland and Jena would qualify as the Russian and Prussian victories.

 

[Aghasverov]

You forgot that in your TL Austria and Prussia are still allies of France. Which makes (the big players):
(a) Two formal enemies, Russia and Britain
(b) One very reluctant ally, Prussia
(c) One very cautious ally, Austria


Britain - restoration of the Spanish Bourbons, French evacuation of Spain and abolishment of the CS (which would be lauded by most of Europe). Demilitarization of Antwerpen. Britain returns some of the captured French colonies including Guadeloupe.
Russia - abolishment of the CS, French evacuation of Prussia, restoration of Oldenburg and a proposal to discuss the “Polish issue” with a hint that France is sympathetic to the idea of making the Duchy a Kingdom and Alexander its king.
Prussia - removal of the French troops from its territory and discussion about return of some lost territories (at Westphalia expense?). All this goes as a reward for a loyalty (blahblahblah). If Taurogen already happened, asking the King of Prussia to pardon Yorke (nice gesture toward the Prussian military) and offering participation in the discussion regarding the fate of Poland. Prussia is not, yet, in a position to demand a piece of Saxony.
Austria - in this schema little or nothing except for the territories which are meaningless for France outside of the CS framework, the Illyrian Provinces. Having half-Hapsburg on the throne of France should be compensation on its own and Austria is isolated, anyway.

Sweden - gets back Pomerania and receives Russian, French, Prussian blessing regarding Norway. Probably the Brits would not mind either. Instead of the foolish game of getting and selling Guadeloupe Bernadotte is receiving a lump sum of money as a compensation for the lands and revenues confiscated by Napoleon (perhaps Desire gets some nice rent “under the table” and a better residence in Paris). Off he marches to have his little victorious war (France, Prussia and Russia can press Denmark diplomatically but perhaps even this would not be needed).

French border is on the Rhine, Holland is independent (but signs an agreement regarding free navigation on the Scheldt), the rest goes either to the old owners or to Prussia as a compensation for the Polish lands lost.

No real need in Vienna-like conference, just bi-lateral talks with Britain and Austria and tri-lateral with Russia and Prussia. No need to bother the Poles with the unnecessary details about their future and realization of these plans is going to be Alexander’s headache. 😂 If there is a general conference, it is not in Vienna and France is generally sympathetic to the Prussian demands, within the reasonable limits, and to the Russian plans regarding Poland. Britain does not have too many subjects to bitch about (Hanover? Talk to the Prussians) and, with the happy Russia and Prussia, it is pretty much marginalized. Austria is trying to be on both sides but, with the other big players being reasonably satisfied, it is more or less marginalize.

Slogans of the new reign: “Empire is peace” and “All that is French must be in France!” (*) - which justifies border on the Rhine (the natives on the left bank were under the French rule so long that they are practically French)

View attachment 624416
(*) Stolen from “The law is a law” - a movie that provides a comprehensive insight on what is “French” and who are “Frenchmen”.

I like this, in general... now, I personally would've liked to see Poland remain in personal union with Saxony, and Norway with Denmark, but eh, some things must pass
The one thing missing though could be the 800-lb gorilla in the room... Italy. Now, I had suggested very early on that I thought Murat could be sort of a "loose cannon" (and he still may be), but Murat was quite susceptible to flattery... he'd probably be susceptible to bribes of various sorts to stay within his allotted boundaries...
That being said, the Savoys are still stuck in Sardinia, coveting the return of Genoa and Savoy proper, and those... other Bourbons are stuck in Sicily dreaming of Naples. This can only be trouble. A combination of subterfuge and intimidation can only go so far....
And then there's relations with the Papacy... never too good (to say the least) under Napoleon. IOTL the Pope was able to regain all of the "Patrimony" at the CoV... I don't see this happening. Perhaps just the old Latium... but... Napoleon had already declared his son "King of Rome" - a meaningless title perhaps but one that would call to be honoured somehow...
Any ideas?

 

[alexmilman]

I like this, in general... now, I personally would've liked to see Poland remain in personal union with Saxony, and Norway with Denmark, but eh, some things must pass
The one thing missing though could be the 800-lb gorilla in the room... Italy. Now, I had suggested very early on that I thought Murat could be sort of a "loose cannon" (and he still may be), but Murat was quite susceptible to flattery... he'd probably be susceptible to bribes of various sorts to stay within his allotted boundaries...
That being said, the Savoys are still stuck in Sardinia, coveting the return of Genoa and Savoy proper, and those... other Bourbons are stuck in Sicily dreaming of Naples. This can only be trouble. A combination of subterfuge and intimidation can only go so far....
And then there's relations with the Papacy... never too good (to say the least) under Napoleon. IOTL the Pope was able to regain all of the "Patrimony" at the CoV... I don't see this happening. Perhaps just the old Latium... but... Napoleon had already declared his son "King of Rome" - a meaningless title perhaps but one that would call to be honoured somehow...
Any ideas?

Well, I intentionally skipped Italy because arrangements there would be out of the Russian hands and influence. We may assume that Eugene can be an acceptable figure for the sides directly involved (France and Austria) and that Savoys would not be anybody’s favorites worthy of a bloodshed. “Kung of Rome” was, as you said, pretty much an empty title and probably could be easily dropped or ignored. After all, NII is going to be an Emperor of the French and the Italians are NOT French (well, “what if somebody is born from the Italian mother and unknown father?” - “He is an Italian”. - “But what if he was born in France” - “ Then he is French”). 😜

Murat and Naples is a different story: not sure that Joseph felt excessive brotherly love to him while the Brits had been traditionally supporting the local Bourbons (or did they already stop?) so he can be thrown under the bus.

 

[Grey Wolf]

If the forced allies switch sides, it means that Ney etc aren't going to get the remnants of the Grand Armee out of Russia, and themselves are going to perish or become prisoners

 

[Aghasverov]

Well, I intentionally skipped Italy because arrangements there would be out of the Russian hands and influence. We may assume that Eugene can be an acceptable figure for the sides directly involved (France and Austria) and that Savoys would not be anybody’s favorites worthy of a bloodshed. “Kung of Rome” was, as you said, pretty much an empty title and probably could be easily dropped or ignored. After all, NII is going to be an Emperor of the French and the Italians are NOT French (well, “what if somebody is born from the Italian mother and unknown father?” - “He is an Italian”. - “But what if he was born in France” - “ Then he is French”). 😜

Murat and Naples is a different story: not sure that Joseph felt excessive brotherly love to him while the Brits had been traditionally supporting the local Bourbons (or did they already stop?) so he can be thrown under the bus.

The fun thing about this time period is that basically everything on the map is just a poker chip, to be dropped on the table when necessary or convenient
When Murat departed the Grand Armee not long after Nap did in 1812, it probably proved to everyone that Murat was out for Murat (if they had any doubts to begin with). His later activities, attempting to intrigue with the Austrians and then turning on them, would cement that - but that wouldn't necessarily happen ITTL. I think the "family" would still prefer to have him in charge of Naples rather than a Bourbon restoration.
The Brits tended to look after their own interests 1st, naturally... if Spain were evacuated, the CS "revised" or eliminated, and Hanover restored to personal union with George, they may say to the Bourbons "well, our work is done here... you know, Sicily is quite a nice place, after all..."

 

[alexmilman]

If the forced allies switch sides, it means that Ney etc aren't going to get the remnants of the Grand Armee out of Russia, and themselves are going to perish or become prisoners

The Austrians would wait and, anyway, they were too far. The Prussians had Yorke’s corps but, again, it is not big enough. Actually, taking into an account that the Act of God happens after Berezina, whatever is left out of the army is out of Russia proper and in Lithuania.

Keep in mind that on that stage (a) the retreating force includes (besides the Old Guard which is in a reasonably good shape) 2 or 3 corps from the flanks which did not participate in a march to Moscow and the following retreat and also are in a reasonably good shape and (b) that thank to the “wise” leadership of Kutuzov the main body of the victorious Russian army not just shrunk in size but also in a shape which is only marginally better than its defeated opponent.

 

[Aghasverov]

Also I think the Russian enthusiasm for pursuing the remnants of the Armee would shrink to next to nil once the Niemen had been reached... "well, they're gone, we're done here..."

 

[alexmilman]

Also I think the Russian enthusiasm for pursuing the remnants of the Armee would shrink to next to nil once the Niemen had been reached... "well, they're gone, we're done here..."

Yes, with the main enemy is gone (preferably by the act of God) the enthusiasm would go down, down, down. What is more important, Alexander may see it as a sign that his mission is over. In general, this would be a convincing confirmation of Munnich’s insight into the issue: “Russia is different from any other country by a virtue of being handled directly by the God because otherwise it is impossible to imagine how such a state can exist.” There will still be issue of liberating Prussia.

 

[Sarthak]

Wasn't Wittgenstein, chichagov and platov very eager to pursue the French and were the main proponents for it and supported Alexander through with the pursuing strategy? I may be mistaken but if I am right then those three are heavy names of influence within Russia.