WI: Colonel Gersdorff successfully suicide bombs Hitler on 21 March 1943
- Thread starter Tresckow
- Start date
Not really. Hundreds of thousands of Germans - even entire armies - surrendered even before 1945. Whereas the number of unwounded Japanese prisoners taken until the last weeks of the war was insignificant. If the Third Reich was decapitated, it would crumble.
Except Himmler was living in a fantasy world and the WAllies knew that. Whatever ounces of sanity Himmler had were now long gone, and it was clear Germany was on its way to total defeat. They had no reason to listen to Himmler because he was clearly out to save his own ass.
March 1943 is a totally different time. With Hitler gone, as well as his line of succession, it radically changes who they’re facing. If they do better against the Soviets (which is probable if a junta is in charge) they will have a stronger bargaining position. Most likely they will pull out of France and the Low Countries back to the 1939 western borders (sans maybe those little parts of Belgium and Denmark they handed over after the first war, but no way they can keep something like Alsace Lorraine). The east is different, however, because the west doesn’t really have a way to enforce border changes. I think they’d withdraw from non-German Czechoslovakia as a sign of good will, but Poland is a big question mark.
We know that, the Allies didn't (especially given Hitler's hold on the population until late in the day and their ultimately unjustified fear of werwolf). Berlin might get the second bomb but given how long they left Hitler et al alive OTL they might not deliberately try and kill him off immediately.
Poland is getting liberated whatever happens as the Allies weren't keen on leaving Germany any gains even if it goes back to 1937 borders instead of 1945. If nothing else the wallies will want to try and set up a buffer state against Stalin and won't want to depend on a German junta to run it. Especially as Poland will rise the second the SS and Heer are distracted by having a "discussion" over who rules post-Hitler Germany.
Wasn’t there a theory that Dresden was kept off the target list (until very late), for just this purpose?
ric350
marathag
Banned
So likely to keep prewar Borders without Uncle Joe shifting the Polish nation Westward
El_Fodedor
Banned
Yeah, but the fact that the Japanese had an understanding with the US about the Imperial Family proves that you can have unconditional surrender with secret conditions.
This type of stubbornness is propaganda for the masses, of course they would listen to some Germans demands if they are reasonable. The problem isn't the allies listening to their demands in the first place, but the content of such demands.
Yep
There's no potential figurehead in Germany equivalent to the Japanese Emperor. The Nazis have co-opted, discredited, imprisoned or killed anyone the Allies might see as a leader of a non-occuppied Germany. (And of course Japan was Occupied, its military dissolved, territory taken from it and war criminals tried. Too few of the latter IMHO but we are where we ware.)
Who in Germany would submit to that without utter military defeat? Who in the Allied leadership would settle for less?
kham_coc
Banned
I'm not even sure those aren't in practice non-negotiable - It would be the means that were a problem, not the gains in and of themselves.
It's certainly plausible that they could negotiate a fresh, free, and supervised referendum on the question for example - Obviously that only applies to Austria/Sudeten.
Austria maybe as pre 1945 that was at least accepted as being a German ethnic state ("Austrian identity" is a bodge largely created post war to disassociate from the Nazi's). The Sudetenland though is explicitly stolen property and whatever happens to Eastern Germany proper its always going back to the Czech's, at which point the Allies turn a blind eye when they kick all the ethnic German's out.
On a very good day Germany gets to keep 1937 borders and Austria, more likely 1937 is all they're getting and even without Poland being moved West it wouldn't shock me if East Prussia is given to the Poles as compensation.
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Yes. However, in the summer of 1944 planning for use of the atomic device against Germany effectively ceased. It was clear then the weapon would not be ready until the second half of 1945 & by July 1944 the idea that Germany would be out of the war by then was starting to take hold. ie: the US started canceling large equipment contracts mid year 1944 as it was clear the expectations were wrong & the European war was not going to last to 1948, or even 1946.
Beyond that it was not clear through 1944 & into early 1945 exactly how destructive this weapon might be, nor how many might be built. Difficult to set any policy or make target lists with so little information. 1940 through 1944 the Various people associated with atomic weapon theory & then construction talked hypotheticals about how it could be used. I've not seen any evidence from historians like Rhodes that these conversations grew into targeting directives for the US Air Forces.
Yeah. Also Dresden was relatively out of the way and quite far from Britain so until 1945 (with the Red army close) there was no reason to target it intensively. If it had come to nukes it does seem likely to have been a city like Dresden for the same reason Hiroshima was targeted (shock value not dented by just bouncing rubble, observations on what the filthy thing could actually do) but as you say I doubt planning for it got that far OTL. The second one probably lands where Hitler is since its likely to have only been needed if he got his head out of his butt and so leaving "the allies greatest general" in place when he refuses to surrender seems a non starter. OTL his incompetence may have shortened the war (although his stubbon refusal to give up then added months at the end) here he probably accepted suggestions to stand on the defensive so the Allies are on the wrong side of the Rhine and the Soviet's have only just ground into Poland by August.
“And the cowardly German generals betrayed Germany in its moment of weakness. We ruled Europe. We were deep into Russia, we could have won if they didn’t murder a man responsible for greatest victories Germany ever saw because of one single defeat in a single city” becomes the narrative unless Allies really go super deep into denazification. Another stab in the back, arguably worse outcome. Nazis needed to be defeated militarily and their ideas delegitimized.