WI: Africa gets gunpowder earlier?

For a long time Greece could project into Italy and the Italians couldn't do the reverse. That didn't end in a Greek run Italy (at least not until after the Italian Greece). If somewhere is annoying to try to take people will just stop bothering.

But the Greeks established colonies all over Italy, until Rome kicked them out.

Besides that I'm not sure that's a suitable comparison since Greek colonization was very different from the later European colonization of Africa, where the metropole ruled the colonies.

I'm just going by OTL, where despite several African victories over European encroachment the Africans failed to obtain any decisive victories since they could not hit Europe where it hurt; at home, while even if Europe lost they could still cripple African states before retreating.

I don't see how the introduction of gunpowder can change that. More is necessary to alter the balance.

If we're gonna talk just about African changes without talking about the impending European invasions, I can get that. We'd need to talk about which regions would be most likely to get an influx guns and learned people; I'd put up the Swahili city-states or Somalia as candidates thanks to the Indian Ocean trade, or the Mali/Songhai Empire in West Africa. I think Kongo is too isolated to seriously benefit.

The question is, if we're just gonna talk about these three, what do they do with their new toys? I think it would actually be most interesting to look at the Swahili city-states since it might spark heavy competition and warfare between them.
 

Sycamore

Banned
I'm looking at 1600-1900, here.

I don't see how gunpowder can reverse that, but maybe it could.

Thing is, that era, 1600 to 1900, was after the Europeans had established their first footholds in Africa (which they only did at first to provide them with outposts for trading vessels en-route to the Indian Ocean), and after the triangular slave trade became established. If the Africans in this region already have gunpowder weapons, then in all likelihood, the overextended Portuguese India Armadas would never have managed to conquer Sofala or Mozambique from the similarly armed African natives- they'd have either been forced to appeal for permission to establish a trade port, paying tribute for the right to do so (in the same manner that they had to in Calicut and in Nagasaki IOTL), or they'd have simply been repulsed (and probably forced to return to Portugal as a result, never managing to make it to India or the Far East). And that'd open up a whole host of butterflies; in Africa, in Europe, and across the globe. You can't really cite OTL's estimated population figures for the period 350>650 years after the proposed POD, and expect them to be anywhere near accurate. Especially not when we're talking about a POD which would have such far-reaching implications.
 

GdwnsnHo

Banned
Going back to this point- the Mwenemutapa Kingdom did actually have an established seaport of its own IOTL, Sofala (which had been founded all the way back in 700CE, and also served as the primary trade post of the Kingdom of Zimbabwe). True, this was nominally under the jursidiction of the Kilwa Sultanate; but it was still formally a possession of the Kingdom of Mutapa later on IOTL, with the Sultans of Kilwa having to pay tribute for the right to settle and trade from this post. So it's definitely not that much of a stretch for Zheng He to travel on from Mombasa to visit Sofala; following the most valuable trade goods from Mombasa, gold and ivory, back to their actual sources in the Kingdom of Zimbabwe and its tributaries (instead of going through the Swahili Arab traders, and getting these goods at marked-up prices). Or, of course, the Kilwa Sultanate could simply adopt the use of gunpowder and introduce gunpowder warfare to sub-Saharan Africa themselves (with either the Kingdom of Zimbabwe and its contemporaries learning about gunpowder warfare the hard way, as the first in line to be on the receiving end). And maybe even Australia, while they're at it...

Aye, I was going with prestige, as that would create interest in the Chinese. Especially if it was a great empire (hence the 3 great/good generations) as the Chinese already had a history with a "Da Qin", or a civilised counterpart that was meant to be Rome. If there was another contender, or a third state that was comparable, then I think the Chinese would be more interested in that possibility than in just trade. Plus it isn't that much further away than the Roman Empire ever was.

Interestingly, if the state had any great power, I'd love to see the look on the faces of those looking for a Prester John, coming across this Zimbabwean kingdom, and then leaping out of their skin when they hear that Prester John calls "God" "Mwari". (Side note - when Christian missionaries converted the area, they used Mwari rather than God in the bibles they made!)

I do think that Gunpowder could be a great game changer, perhaps it creates a strong successor state, or allows a middling Kingdom to become an Empire that covers S.Africa, but the Kingdom of Zimbabwe NEEDS to be prestigous enough to garner attention, or lucky enough to stumble upon the tricks themselves.

Luckily, they have significant sulphur deposits and sources out west near the Sulphur Springs! That and if the Chinese help them out, obscene amounts of beloved cattle become even more important as sources of gunpowder reagents.

Is it poor form to be overly intrigued in the potential of your own idea? :p
 
Aye, I was going with prestige, as that would create interest in the Chinese. Especially if it was a great empire (hence the 3 great/good generations) as the Chinese already had a history with a "Da Qin", or a civilised counterpart that was meant to be Rome. If there was another contender, or a third state that was comparable, then I think the Chinese would be more interested in that possibility than in just trade. Plus it isn't that much further away than the Roman Empire ever was.

Interestingly, if the state had any great power, I'd love to see the look on the faces of those looking for a Prester John, coming across this Zimbabwean kingdom, and then leaping out of their skin when they hear that Prester John calls "God" "Mwari". (Side note - when Christian missionaries converted the area, they used Mwari rather than God in the bibles they made!)

I do think that Gunpowder could be a great game changer, perhaps it creates a strong successor state, or allows a middling Kingdom to become an Empire that covers S.Africa, but the Kingdom of Zimbabwe NEEDS to be prestigous enough to garner attention, or lucky enough to stumble upon the tricks themselves.

Luckily, they have significant sulphur deposits and sources out west near the Sulphur Springs! That and if the Chinese help them out, obscene amounts of beloved cattle become even more important as sources of gunpowder reagents.

Is it poor form to be overly intrigued in the potential of your own idea? :p

That's how timelines get made ;).
 

Sycamore

Banned
But the Greeks established colonies all over Italy, until Rome kicked them out.

Besides that I'm not sure that's a suitable comparison since Greek colonization was very different from the later European colonization of Africa, where the metropole ruled the colonies.

I'm just going by OTL, where despite several African victories over European encroachment the Africans failed to obtain any decisive victories since they could not hit Europe where it hurt; at home, while even if Europe lost they could still cripple African states before retreating.

I don't see how the introduction of gunpowder can change that. More is necessary to alter the balance.

If we're gonna talk just about African changes without talking about the impending European invasions, I can get that. We'd need to talk about which regions would be most likely to get an influx guns and learned people; I'd put up the Swahili city-states or Somalia as candidates thanks to the Indian Ocean trade, or the Mali/Songhai Empire in West Africa. I think Kongo is too isolated to seriously benefit.

The question is, if we're just gonna talk about these three, what do they do with their new toys? I think it would actually be most interesting to look at the Swahili city-states since it might spark heavy competition and warfare between them.

IMHO, if the Swahili city-states take them up (especially the Kilwa Sultanate, under which they were all unified in a loosely-knit Confederacy), then it would be likely to follow a course roughly paralleling those of OTL's 'Gunpowder Empires'. Would they swiftly reach their geographic apogee in their initial, gunpowder-weapon fuelled burst of expansion, only to then start declining almost immediately, going into swift decline and eventually collapsing, once neighbouring states and kingdoms get the hang of their gunpowder warfare and nullify their initial technological advantage, akin to the Safavids? Would they establish a massive, populous and prosperous all-encompassing Empire which utterly dominates sub-Saharan Africa, akin to that forged by the Mughals in India- only for factional infighting, mismanagement by intolerant theocratic Emperors in its later years, break-away kingdoms, and eventually interference from the increasingly powerful European East Africa Trading Companies of TTL, to bring about its eventual demise? Or would they manage to keep up the pace of development through competition with (and the eventual annexation of) other adjoining gunpowder-equipped kingdoms and aspiring empires across Africa in the same way as the Ottomans, potentially managing to endure as a Great Power into the early modern era, and remaining militarily capable of taking the fight back to any would-be European invaders throughout?
 
Weren't the Swahili largely pacifist in their competition with each other? They mainly competed through trade, not wars.

I think it depends on when Africa gets gunpowder and how far those butterflies reach. If the Swahili get gunpowder and develop them into weapons and the Portuguese try to dominate the Indian Ocean, the Swahili could turn the Portuguese invasion into an advantage by capturing the Portuguese ship technology and reproducing it for their own use.
 

Deleted member 67076

Wow, you've changed everything with this POD. Expect to see a period of massive state consolidation as gunpowder spreads everywhere it can on the continent.

I'd imagine there'd be at least one massive gunpowder empire on the Sahel and another in the Great Lakes region, perhaps along the Swahili Coast as well.

I'm looking at 1600-1900, here.

I don't see how gunpowder can reverse that, but maybe it could.

Gunpowder helps lead to state consolidation and expansion, which was a major problem for most African states. With these two things in place government can do more to improve infrastructure and trade links, that in turn create wealth and population growth.
 
The problem is that state growth in Africa was greatly abetted--even in the interior--by the slave trade.

Essentially, the high demand for slaves in Africa from Europeans warped the regional economies. This warping of regional networks stretched into the interior--and in Central Africa collided with the Arab slaver complex that had existed for centuries. Most state expansion, especially in West Africa south of the Sahel and in Central Africa, had some connection to slavery. From Dahomey to the Imbangala, wars were fought to capture and sell slaves. The capital generated from these sales helped maintain the states and great slave ports.

Once slavery lost its support in the West, the slave economies collapsed, allowing for easy Western intrigues in their markets. The entire regional economy of many of these small states had been so geared towards the triangle trade as to make the removal of said trade utterly catastrophic.

And what of the Sahel? Well, expect that gunpowder to be used by the Fulani and others to redraw the region several times; there were no shortage of wars.

Essentially, gunpowder is not going to fix the deep economic changes and constant conflict that afflicted Africa into the late 19th century. Not all parts of Africa will even have gunpowder--Mfecane anyone--and even those that do will not be able to overcome the severe disadvantages in statecraft and state cohesion vis-a-vis Europeans with backing from the metropole.

I dispute that gunpowder is all that important:

Look at Japan. Had gunpowder, used it as part of a process of social unity--and then abandoned it. The Sengoku Jidai could have just as easily won with swords as it was with guns, and Tokugawa stability despite the loss of most guns should be noted.

India: had guns versus Europeans, but the states also kept using guns on each other. So long as Europe can play internal contradictions, it will have an advantage in slowly usurping control of various nodes of international trade.

Europe was like a parasitic wasp, rerouting the African and Asian economies, weakening state structures, and eventually feeding on the wealth as Imperialism fully matured. To save Africa truly, you need to avoid slavery. Good luck with that one.
 

Sycamore

Banned
The problem is that state growth in Africa was greatly abetted--even in the interior--by the slave trade.

Essentially, the high demand for slaves in Africa from Europeans warped the regional economies. This warping of regional networks stretched into the interior--and in Central Africa collided with the Arab slaver complex that had existed for centuries. Most state expansion, especially in West Africa south of the Sahel and in Central Africa, had some connection to slavery. From Dahomey to the Imbangala, wars were fought to capture and sell slaves. The capital generated from these sales helped maintain the states and great slave ports.

Once slavery lost its support in the West, the slave economies collapsed, allowing for easy Western intrigues in their markets. The entire regional economy of many of these small states had been so geared towards the triangle trade as to make the removal of said trade utterly catastrophic.

And what of the Sahel? Well, expect that gunpowder to be used by the Fulani and others to redraw the region several times; there were no shortage of wars.

Essentially, gunpowder is not going to fix the deep economic changes and constant conflict that afflicted Africa into the late 19th century. Not all parts of Africa will even have gunpowder--Mfecane anyone--and even those that do will not be able to overcome the severe disadvantages in statecraft and state cohesion vis-a-vis Europeans with backing from the metropole.

I dispute that gunpowder is all that important:

Look at Japan. Had gunpowder, used it as part of a process of social unity--and then abandoned it. The Sengoku Jidai could have just as easily won with swords as it was with guns, and Tokugawa stability despite the loss of most guns should be noted.

India: had guns versus Europeans, but the states also kept using guns on each other. So long as Europe can play internal contradictions, it will have an advantage in slowly usurping control of various nodes of international trade.

Europe was like a parasitic wasp, rerouting the African and Asian economies, weakening state structures, and eventually feeding on the wealth as Imperialism fully matured. To save Africa truly, you need to avoid slavery. Good luck with that one.

Not quite. The Europeans only really started taking an interest in the African slave trade after the Portuguese got them interested, and demonstrated the potential rewards which could be generated from it. The examples which you cite are examples from well after the demand was already established, from the 16th, 17th & 18th centuries. And those wars weren't fought with the purpose of capturing and selling slaves- they were financially supported by capturing and selling enemy POWs as slaves, with the capital generated from these sales helping to stave off those states' bankruptcy, and to sustain their war coffers over the course of campaigns which often endured for decades.

And even IOTL, the slave trade went both ways- for most of the middle ages, up until the 16th century (after the coastal African slave trading ports became well-established), Europe was actually a net exporter of slaves to Africa (enslaved and sold into African slavery via the Arabs and the Trans-Saharan slave trade, in order to support Europe's own crippling endemic warfare), not the other way round. There's a reason why slaves are known as 'Slaves', and not 'Abds'- for the Arab slave traders, Europe was the place to go and buy slaves from, not Africa.

In an ATL where the military technology of Africa more closely parallels that of Europe, as a result of gunpowder warfare being introduced on both continents at roughly the same time, it's by no means guaranteed that the expansion of the slave trade will result in Africa becoming a net exporter of slaves to Europe ITTL. With gunpowder warfare, conflicts in Europe became far more intensive on human resources; war campaigns had to be conducted far more quickly, larger armies would have be mobilised, and those armies had be far better equipped and supplied (incurring far greater expenses due to the more difficult logistics).

And as such, Europe was left facing a labour shortage- one which it met by expanding the institution of slavery, and exponentially increasing its importation of non-European (African) slaves to compensate for its inadequate workforce. Endemic gunpowder warfare effectively necessitated Late Medieval Europe's change from a net exporter into a net importer of slaves IOTL, enabling the European kingdoms involved in the slave trade (whose own populations had utterly stagnated) to keep their economies viable and maintain a viable workforce through the importation of slave labour.

ITTL, the Africans would be in exactly the same boat, facing the same challenges. Soon enough, the Africans would be looking to increase the importation of increasingly valuable slave labourers from Europe to boost their own war-ravaged workforces ITTL. And plenty of players in the European slave trade- the Berbers, Arabs, Radhanite Jews, Venetians, Crimeans, Knights of Malta and even the Vikings' successor states- could well inclined to expand their own slave trading operations in order to cash in on the far higher rewards which they can reap by exporting European (and Islamic, and other Asian) slaves on to African Kingdoms. IMHO, it'd be far more likely that the Arabs and other intermediaries would become the 'parasitic wasps'; the European economy may well be just as vulnerable to re-routing ITTL as the Asian and African economies of TTL are.

As for the other bit- IMHO, if TTL's Africa ended as a patchwork quilt of Japan and India analogues, I'd be inclined to deem that as a scenario in which Africa would be sufficiently 'saved' to be counted as a huge Africa-wank TL. It'd certainly be far more of a win for Africa than OTL. And, of course, there'd be no telling what the rest of the world might look like as a result...
 
I'd also like to add that the lack of a large domesticated animal population to both feed, urbanize, and serve as beasts of burden for traveling long distances and farming was another huge disadvantage that gunpowder would not be able to fix.

Sure, hunting would be substantially easier but not to the point where it could urbanize any area of sub-saharan Africa to match that of the Europeans.

Again look at the fate of Native Americans.
 
Not quite. The Europeans only really started taking an interest in the African slave trade after the Portuguese got them interested, and demonstrated the potential rewards which could be generated from it. The examples which you cite are examples from well after the demand was already established, from the 16th, 17th & 18th centuries. And those wars weren't fought with the purpose of capturing and selling slaves- they were financially supported by capturing and selling enemy POWs as slaves, with the capital generated from these sales helping to stave off those states' bankruptcy, and to sustain their war coffers over the course of campaigns which often endured for decades.

And even IOTL, the slave trade went both ways- for most of the middle ages, up until the 16th century (after the coastal African slave trading ports became well-established), Europe was actually a net exporter of slaves to Africa (enslaved and sold into African slavery via the Arabs and the Trans-Saharan slave trade, in order to support Europe's own crippling endemic warfare), not the other way round. There's a reason why slaves are known as 'Slaves', and not 'Abds'- for the Arab slave traders, Europe was the place to go and buy slaves from, not Africa.

In an ATL where the military technology of Africa more closely parallels that of Europe, as a result of gunpowder warfare being introduced on both continents at roughly the same time, it's by no means guaranteed that the expansion of the slave trade will result in Africa becoming a net exporter of slaves to Europe ITTL. With gunpowder warfare, conflicts in Europe became far more intensive on human resources; war campaigns had to be conducted far more quickly, larger armies would have be mobilised, and those armies had be far better equipped and supplied (incurring far greater expenses due to the more difficult logistics).

And as such, Europe was left facing a labour shortage- one which it met by expanding the institution of slavery, and exponentially increasing its importation of non-European (African) slaves to compensate for its inadequate workforce. Endemic gunpowder warfare effectively necessitated Late Medieval Europe's change from a net exporter into a net importer of slaves IOTL, enabling the European kingdoms involved in the slave trade (whose own populations had utterly stagnated) to keep their economies viable and maintain a viable workforce through the importation of slave labour.

ITTL, the Africans would be in exactly the same boat, facing the same challenges. Soon enough, the Africans would be looking to increase the importation of increasingly valuable slave labourers from Europe to boost their own war-ravaged workforces ITTL. And plenty of players in the European slave trade- the Berbers, Arabs, Radhanite Jews, Venetians, Crimeans, Knights of Malta and even the Vikings' successor states- could well inclined to expand their own slave trading operations in order to cash in on the far higher rewards which they can reap by exporting European (and Islamic, and other Asian) slaves on to African Kingdoms. IMHO, it'd be far more likely that the Arabs and other intermediaries would become the 'parasitic wasps'; the European economy may well be just as vulnerable to re-routing ITTL as the Asian and African economies of TTL are.

As for the other bit- IMHO, if TTL's Africa ended as a patchwork quilt of Japan and India analogues, I'd be inclined to deem that as a scenario in which Africa would be sufficiently 'saved' to be counted as a huge Africa-wank TL. It'd certainly be far more of a win for Africa than OTL. And, of course, there'd be no telling what the rest of the world might look like as a result...

I know about the white slavery and whatnot into North Africa, yes. and about the etymology But sub-Saharan Africa was not receiving slaves--it was exporting them north to North Africa or to India/Iran/Mesopotamia thanks to the Arabs.

And white slavery in Europe proper ended in the 1000s. The Church did not allow it, the Radhanites collapsed, the Vikings converted, the Venetians largely traded pagans to Muslims, and the Knights of Malta never engaged in slavery. By the time you get to the 14th century, the major slavers are going to be Muslims raiding Christian areas, and said Muslims were bitterly opposed by Europe. Christians were not going to sell other Christians into slavery in Europe proper; the reason they got away with it in the New World is because racism was developed from Arab sources and Hamitic theory to justify the keeping of African slaves.

I never addressed the initial premise; I don't think gunpowder was going to get into the Sahel that early. It came from China along the Mongol trade routes--to the Middle East, Russia, and then Europe. It then went into India, the rest of Asia, and North Africa--I don't see gunpowder getting that far past, at best, the Swahili Coast or Ethiopia. It took a while to transmit for a reason.

Point by point: Those wars were definitely fought to get PoWs to sell as slaves. You had non-state peoples raiding Kongo and Lunda in Central Africa, you had the various Ashanti conflicts with their neighbors, you had the Wolof and Fulani fighting... anywhere from Senegal to Benguela had some amount of slave trafficking going on. Other major states, like Zimbabwe, collapsed and then reconstituted itself as Mutapa. Mutapa was divided between Portuguese and Arab-Swahili influence; the Arabs largely won out, because Portugal didn't have the men to go an fully conquer Mutapa. Eventually, their backwoods settlers were kind of wiped out by the replacement of the Mutapa with the Rozwi and others.

Even with gunpowder in the Sahel, the existence of a lucrative, constant-demand trade market will lead African states to respond to that demand by selling slaves. Even the Asian states sold slaves to Europeans, although eventually both the Tokugawa and Chinese cracked down on sales. Since Europe had the navies, they were going to be the ones discovering the New World, leading to the death by disease-and-slavery of the natives, necessitating the need to import tropics-proof labor to start up the booming sugar industry.

Europe also had a number of other advantages--a tangled but sophisticated legal and administrative "layering" system, large mercantile classes that had immediate coastal access, etc. I don't see Kanem and Mali a) getting gunpowder that early or b) being able to coalesce from feudalism to modernity so quickly. You mention the Black Death--the labor changes engendered by the plague, along with the rest of the crisis of the 14th century, allowed Europe to trade feudalism for the beginnings of the modern state. Africa, as mentioned, never suffered said plague, and thusly had much less of an impetus to transition out of feudal/pre-feudal organization.

There is also the Arabs. Although I highly doubt that they'd be able to do to Europe what Europe did to Africa (the European mercantile classes are too strong, already had a large role in trade with Muslims and were themselves the intermediaries, and then you have the end of the Reconquista etc), they were able to dominate the major candidates for advancement. It only takes one Moroccan invasion of Songhai to destabilize the Western Sahel for generations as the successor states squabble amongst each other; the Swahili were already fractious and eventually fell under the Omani aegis. States like Kongo fell under quick European domination and European-started instability, and in any case I don't see how the Lunda or Kongo would be getting gunpowder contemporaneously with Europe.
 
I'd also like to add that the lack of a large domesticated animal population to both feed, urbanize, and serve as beasts of burden for traveling long distances and farming was another huge disadvantage that gunpowder would not be able to fix.

Except that isn't actually true. Surely you've heard of the Fulani, or of the Maasai, or the Zulu? All of them were or are seriously pastoralist peoples, with a big fixation on large cattle herds. Now, cattle may not be as good as horses for labor, but oxen are quite capable of supporting overland transportation and farming, and were commonly used in Europe, as well, in those roles.

Sure, there were and are regions where domestic animals were or are disfavored due to the climate or presence of endemic diseases, but there are many areas where well-known domestic species could be raised and kept perfectly well, just as in many areas of Eurasia.
 
Except that isn't actually true. Surely you've heard of the Fulani, or of the Maasai, or the Zulu? All of them were or are seriously pastoralist peoples, with a big fixation on large cattle herds. Now, cattle may not be as good as horses for labor, but oxen are quite capable of supporting overland transportation and farming, and were commonly used in Europe, as well, in those roles.

Sure, there were and are regions where domestic animals were or are disfavored due to the climate or presence of endemic diseases, but there are many areas where well-known domestic species could be raised and kept perfectly well, just as in many areas of Eurasia.

Except, on a large scale competitive to the likes of Europe they didn't. And again, separate from these pocket tribes, many remained hunter gather type societies, strangling the population potential of native Africans in the process.
 
Except, on a large scale competitive to the likes of Europe they didn't. And again, separate from these pocket tribes, many remained hunter gather type societies, strangling the population potential of native Africans in the process.

"Pocket tribes"? The Fulani are spread across the entire Sahel, which is a region a good fraction of the size of Europe, and the Zulu are just one part of the Nguni family, which again is spread over quite large areas. The Maasai have a more limited regional distribution, but I would hardly be surprised if other ethnic groups in the area also herded cattle. It's quite clear that there were large domestic animal populations in pre-modern Africa, quite comparable with many regions of Eurasia or Europe itself.

You seem to be mistaking Africa for the Americas, which is totally incorrect, and, moreover, to be lumping together all of Africa into a single monolithic block, which is also totally incorrect. In fact, while there were obviously hunter-gatherer populations in Africa, these were generally limited to the more marginal areas where agriculture and pastoralism didn't work very well, just the same way that there were hunter-gatherer and pastoralist populations in Europe, they were just limited to regions where agriculture didn't work very well (e.g., the Sami people or Scottish highlanders). In other areas where conditions were more favorable, such as the Sahel or the Swahili coast, there was extensive agricultural and urban development, just the same way that there was in other regions of the globe where conditions prevailed.
 
The only hunter-gatherers in Africa were the Khoisan, and maybe, maybe the Pygmies. Everyone else had varying levels of settled, or semi-nomadic animal husbandry/agriculture.

Especially with cattle/sheep. All of the Nguni peoples, the Great Lakes Cattle Kingdoms, the "far-flung as in from Senegal to Cameroon" Fulani... Africa had many significant pastoral peoples.
 
"Pocket tribes"? The Fulani are spread across the entire Sahel, which is a region a good fraction of the size of Europe, and the Zulu are just one part of the Nguni family, which again is spread over quite large areas. The Maasai have a more limited regional distribution, but I would hardly be surprised if other ethnic groups in the area also herded cattle. It's quite clear that there were large domestic animal populations in pre-modern Africa, quite comparable with many regions of Eurasia or Europe itself.

You seem to be mistaking Africa for the Americas, which is totally incorrect, and, moreover, to be lumping together all of Africa into a single monolithic block, which is also totally incorrect. In fact, while there were obviously hunter-gatherer populations in Africa, these were generally limited to the more marginal areas where agriculture and pastoralism didn't work very well, just the same way that there were hunter-gatherer and pastoralist populations in Europe, they were just limited to regions where agriculture didn't work very well (e.g., the Sami people or Scottish highlanders). In other areas where conditions were more favorable, such as the Sahel or the Swahili coast, there was extensive agricultural and urban development, just the same way that there was in other regions of the globe where conditions prevailed.

And yet sub-saharan Africa still lacked the urbanization required to form the basic foundations of a centralized governance among the disparate tribes, even comparable to the likes of the Aztecs or the Inca by the time gunpower could have been discovered as per the OP

Name one area of sub-saharan Africa where, with the historical domestication you describe, could support a population center in the 100s of Thousands? You can't, and that's my argument.

While sure, it's impossible to claim that domestication or high yield crops didn't exist in Africa, it is easy to see why Africa, from the Arabs to the Europeans were the colonized rather than the colonizers.
 
And yet sub-saharan Africa still lacked the urbanization required to form the basic foundations of a centralized governance among the disparate tribes, even comparable to the likes of the Aztecs or the Inca by the time gunpower could have been discovered as per the OP

Name one area of sub-saharan Africa where, with the historical domestication you describe, could support a population center in the 100s of Thousands? You can't, and that's my argument.

While sure, it's impossible to claim that domestication or high yield crops didn't exist in Africa, it is easy to see why Africa, from the Arabs to the Europeans were the colonized rather than the colonizers.

The Sahel had, oh, you know, the various Malian and Songhai cities, the Hausa city states, and Kanem Bornu. Definitely capable of said domestication and said population numbers. Disease really hurt those numbers, but it was certainly capable of such.
 

Sycamore

Banned
I know about the white slavery and whatnot into North Africa, yes. and about the etymology But sub-Saharan Africa was not receiving slaves--it was exporting them north to North Africa or to India/Iran/Mesopotamia thanks to the Arabs.

And white slavery in Europe proper ended in the 1000s. The Church did not allow it, the Radhanites collapsed, the Vikings converted, the Venetians largely traded pagans to Muslims, and the Knights of Malta never engaged in slavery. By the time you get to the 14th century, the major slavers are going to be Muslims raiding Christian areas, and said Muslims were bitterly opposed by Europe. Christians were not going to sell other Christians into slavery in Europe proper; the reason they got away with it in the New World is because racism was developed from Arab sources and Hamitic theory to justify the keeping of African slaves.

And why wouldn't those same Muslim slave raiders be bitterly opposed by Africa? Or, rather, by organised African kingdoms? We can't really talk about 'Europe' and 'Africa' as monolithic blocs, certainly not in this era. After all, if we were to do so, then I could easily cite the example of the Crimean Khanate- the world's most prolific slave-trading nation for centuries, which sourced the vast majority of its slaves from Russia and Poland-Lithuania. Unless you don't count the Slavs as 'proper white people', or you don't count Eastern Europe as 'Europe proper' (in the same way that you don't seem to count North Africa as 'Africa proper'), then White European slavery was still going strong into the early 18th century IOTL. The trading of Christian slaves to non-Christians was eventually ended, but only after repeated attempts to ban the practice by the papacy over the course of centuries, most of which were flouted- and the slave-trading which did take place was a major factor which contributed to the Christianisation of Europe.

The slave merchants of Genoa and Venice, not the Arab slave merchants, dominated the slave trade in the Eastern Mediterranean from the 1100s onwards, and in the Black Sea beginning in the 1200s. They sold both Slavic and Baltic slaves, as well as Georgians, Turks, and other ethnic groups of the Black Sea and Caucasus, to the Muslim nations of the Middle East. Genoa primarily managed the slave trade from Crimea to Mamluk Egypt until the 1200s, when increasing Venetian control over the Eastern Mediterranean allowed Venice to dominate that market. Between 1414 and 1423 alone, at least 10,000 slaves were sold in Venice.

I never addressed the initial premise; I don't think gunpowder was going to get into the Sahel that early. It came from China along the Mongol trade routes--to the Middle East, Russia, and then Europe. It then went into India, the rest of Asia, and North Africa--I don't see gunpowder getting that far past, at best, the Swahili Coast or Ethiopia. It took a while to transmit for a reason.

BTW, here's a map of the Sahel region, just so we know what general region we're talking about...
the-sahel.jpg


IMHO, it's not too much of a stretch for it to get into the Eastern Sahel region at all. And the majority of the Sahelian Kingdoms' populations were based in the Sudan regions, south of the Sahel. As such, the Kingdom of Aksum, and its successor the Kingdom of Abyssinia, were technically Sahelian Kingdoms as well. For extra reference, regarding just how they'd be transmitted there- here's a map of the maritime trade routes established in the Indian Ocean prior to 1000CE, well before the POD or the arrival of European traders in the region...
IndianOceanMaritimeRoutes.gif
 
And why wouldn't those same Muslim slave raiders be bitterly opposed by Africa? Or, rather, by organised African kingdoms? We can't really talk about 'Europe' and 'Africa' as monolithic blocs, certainly not in this era. After all, if we were to do so, then I could easily cite the example of the Crimean Khanate- the world's most prolific slave-trading nation for centuries, which sourced the vast majority of its slaves from Russia and Poland-Lithuania. Unless you don't count the Slavs as 'proper white people', or you don't count Eastern Europe as 'Europe proper' (in the same way that you don't seem to count North Africa as 'Africa proper'), then White European slavery was still going strong into the early 18th century IOTL. The trading of Christian slaves to non-Christians was eventually ended, but only after repeated attempts to ban the practice by the papacy over the course of centuries, most of which were flouted- and the slave-trading which did take place was a major factor which contributed to the Christianisation of Europe.

Tatar raids capturing people is different than Africans selling other Africans to Europeans who can't go two miles into Africa without catching fatal malaria/yellow fever/etc. And the Tatar raids were bitterly opposed; Africans weren't fighting Europeans (except in Kongo and the Swahili), they were fighting each other to sell the losers to said Europeans. The first is a classic slave raid sort of deal; the latter is a transactional, mercantile relationship funded by African-on-African warfare.

As for why they wouldn't be bitterly opposed: because a) the (West and East Sahelian) African states were Muslim, b) they had domestic slavery as sanctioned by the Koran, c) they could trade in pagans. Muslim states nominally tried to avoid selling other Muslims. Christians launched rescue missions and tried to conquer the Barbary coast, or paid ransom. Russia's foreign policy for centuries was one of conquering the Tatars, mainly to stop all the slaving.

The slave merchants of Genoa and Venice, not the Arab slave merchants, dominated the slave trade in the Eastern Mediterranean from the 1100s onwards, and in the Black Sea beginning in the 1200s. They sold both Slavic and Baltic slaves, as well as Georgians, Turks, and other ethnic groups of the Black Sea and Caucasus, to the Muslim nations of the Middle East. Genoa primarily managed the slave trade from Crimea to Mamluk Egypt until the 1200s, when increasing Venetian control over the Eastern Mediterranean allowed Venice to dominate that market. Between 1414 and 1423 alone, at least 10,000 slaves were sold in Venice.

Notably, that's a) before Europe made contact with sub-Saharan Africa and b) mostly in Turks and Circassians, and maybe some of the others. I know Venice dominated the market, but they were selling Caucasians and Turks out of the fringe of Europe to Muslims, not Italians and Frenchmen or even Balkan Slavs by that point. As I said, the major period of European slavery ended with Christianization of the Balkans and Baltic.

Eventually, the major slavery in the Med was done by pirates--hence all the captured Venetians as Valide Sultans of the Ottoman Empire and all that. The Venetian dominance over the Circassian slave trade in the Late Middle Ages ended once Venice started fighting the Ottomans in the 16th/17th century.

And no, North Africa should not be lumped with the rest of Africa. It's part of the Mediterranean world, which sub-Saharan Africa definitely isn't.

BTW, here's a map of the Sahel region, just so we know what general region we're talking about...
the-sahel.jpg


IMHO, it's not too much of a stretch for it to get into the Eastern Sahel region at all. And the majority of the Sahelian Kingdoms' populations were based in the Sudan regions, south of the Sahel. As such, the Kingdom of Aksum, and its successor the Kingdom of Abyssinia, were technically Sahelian Kingdoms as well. For extra reference, regarding just how they'd be transmitted there- here's a map of the maritime trade routes established in the Indian Ocean prior to 1000CE, well before the POD or the arrival of European traders in the region...
IndianOceanMaritimeRoutes.gif

That's a very generous definition of "Sahel"; IMO it ends at the border with Ethiopia.

Ethiopia, notably, basically lacked sea access for most of its history; the Muslims controlled Eritrea and the Bab al-Mandeb, and the Horn. Gunpowder did not transfer by sea OTL, and I see no reason for it to do so here. It would travel, via land, to North Africa and then down the salt routes to the Western Sahel, after which it would go East--as it did OTL. Considering India only got gunpowder post-Mongols (around the same time as Europe), this plan to have Sahelian gunpowder even close to then seems suspect to me.

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Ultimately, I don't buy the OP premise, I don't buy that gunpowder is all that important in giving Africa an advantage comparative to OTL, and I don't buy that gunpowder would magically make African statecraft or social organization equal to the nascent coastal bourgeoisie of Early Modern Europe. They have the complex states, absolutely, but its the little things--and the access to the ocean--that really helped Europe out in the long run.
 
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Name one area of sub-saharan Africa where, with the historical domestication you describe, could support a population center in the 100s of Thousands? You can't, and that's my argument.

Mali in the 13th-14th century OTL supported a population close to 40-50 million. Quite urbanized. That very nearly matches the total population of Europe at the time.
 
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