WI 1931 Austro-German customs union succeeds ?

[Eurofed]

The relevant facts are summarized here. Let's assume that by the opportune PoD (political crisis, the Great Depression hitting French economy more severely) France is not in the position to block the birth of the Austro-German customs union in 1931. The union is established by both countries. Let's assume that the economic union leads to the Anschluss by 1934. Germany buys Italy's support to the political union with a treaty formally renouncing any claim on South Tyrol, a economic treaty, as well as diplomatic support to Italian expansionism in the Western Balkans. Britain simply doesn't care. And France is paralyzed by political unrest.

What happens to Germany ? This could certainly butterfly the Nazist takeover away. Not necessarily the fall of Weimar, although it is quite possible, but at least bring a sane right-wing regime in charge when Hindenburg dies.

 

[Lord Insane]

Let's assume that the economic union leads to the Anschluss by 1934.

Hm, I'm really certain limiting the discussion to that assumption is really the best. I could certainly see the possibility of full-on Anschluss being delayed to after 1934, depending on just how 1931 gets in- after all, if just barely, then France will still be in able to protest Anschluss. Still, Austria being a part of Germany coming earlier is indeed quite likely... though I could see also see a slower, gradual process where Anschluss finishes later, but is less of a break with the past.

 

[mailinutile2]

Do you think that the enthusiasm for the union could stabilize the Weimar regime?

 

[Cook]

What happens to Germany ? This could certainly butterfly the Nazist takeover away.

Really?
How?

 

[Cook]

Please note, I’m not saying you are wrong, I’m asking how you have arrived at your conclusion.

 

[Lord Insane]

Please note, I’m not saying you are wrong, I’m asking how you have arrived at your conclusion.

Well, it'd strengthen the government at the time. If this doesn't remove the the July 1932 Reichstag election, by butterfly or direct impact, then at least it would reduce the Nazi gains (since, well, more moderate methods have been shown to work).
Come to think of it, the way the French stopped it in OTL contributed to economic problems throughout Central Europe. Which might make the Great Depression slightly less severe, though, then again, the likely lack of a Hoover Moratorium would make it less so.

 

[Eurofed]

Hm, I'm really certain limiting the discussion to that assumption is really the best. I could certainly see the possibility of full-on Anschluss being delayed to after 1934, depending on just how 1931 gets in- after all, if just barely, then France will still be in able to protest Anschluss. Still, Austria being a part of Germany coming earlier is indeed quite likely... though I could see also see a slower, gradual process where Anschluss finishes later, but is less of a break with the past.

Uhm, IMO once the economic union is entrenched the political pressure for full union would soon become irresistible, like it happened for German reunification in 1990. France didn't really played a role in stopping the first Naxi attempt at Anschluss in 1934, it was an Italian job, and I inserted ways in the scenarion for Italy to be bought into acquiescence. Besides, in 1934 France got very close to a fascist coup. It shall have bigger fishes to fry than Grossdeutchsland democratic unification.

Do you think that the enthusiasm for the union could stabilize the Weimar regime?

Or at the very least swing its downfall towards a much saner neo-Kaiserreich right-wing semi-authoritarian regime. Enthusiasm for the coming union would very likely swing some votes away from the Nazis and Commies in the fateful 1932 Reichstag and Parliamentary elections. So that either the democratic parties are able to come up with a parliamentary majority, or Hindenburg and his camarilla throw their weight under Scleichler, not Hitler, for getting and keeping the Chancellorship. Although it may take some serious street violence, we may come up with Scleichler enforcing a constitutional change by coup to expand the executive's powers, change the electoral law, ban the NAzis and Commies, and restore the Kaiser. That would largely stabilize Germany, and the welfare programs and rearmament that brought Germany out of the Great Depression could be done at a less breakneck, sustainable pace. With the Anschluss accomplished by democratic means, Germany would have the leverage to bargain with the powers to return Dnazig and the Sudetenland to Germany by less traumatic means, say a couple of plebiscites. Non-Nazi German nationalists did not have any other strong claims in Europe.

Or we could have a Weimar stabilization. I use mainly the chance of a Schleichler takeover and Kaiserreich restoration because I'm more familiar with the PoD.

 

[Eurofed]

Well, it'd strengthen the government at the time. If this doesn't remove the the July 1932 Reichstag election, by butterfly or direct impact, then at least it would reduce the Nazi gains (since, well, more moderate methods have been shown to work).

Exactly. Nazi votes had already begun to diminish in the November 1932 election. Now, if enthusiasm for the coming Anschluss does not them swing to the Commies as iOTL, but to the democratic parties, it is quite plausible that the Nazi takeover is butterflied away.

Come to think of it, the way the French stopped it in OTL contributed to economic problems throughout Central Europe. Which might make the Great Depression slightly less severe, though, then again, the likely lack of a Hoover Moratorium would make it less so.

Given the way the GD was raging, even without those French actions (although it is quite possible that the PoD that paralyzes France causes just as big problems to French economy), the Hoover Moratorium would be coming just as well, if maybe slightly later.