Second basil because that's a strong Byzantium that can credibly claim the status of empire without simply being the pan Mediterranean Roman empire.
Which Byzantine Alternate History AH should I do?
Out of all the Byzantine TLs I’ve seen, one where Justinian succeeds is one I’ve never read before. So I voted for the very top.
A Romanos IV victory in Mantzikert is rather interesting, since it can be develop both into a successful Romanos reign (relatively speaking, since the Dukas family will prove to be intransigent) or, more interesting in my view, a victory of the Dukas partisans which might, if Alp Arslan decides it's not worth the energy and resources to reopen hostilities, lead to the continuation of the reforms led by the bureaucrats already underway during the reign of Constantine X under much more favourable conditions.
536: Not really thought about it but Justinian would probably conquer Aquitania and Spain, but general incompetence and the arrival of the Slavs would harm the Empire.
602: Maurice would defeat the Bulgars and Slavs and potentially the Lombards. There would be less wars between Persia meaning a likely Byzantine victory at Yarmouk as well.
976: I also don't know but perhaps his successor could have the militarism of Basil but also more pragmatic and wiser from being brought up in the palace, I would want him to prepare the Empire for the Seljuks, Normans and Pechenegs in the end of the century but his successors may worsen this. Nevertheless the Empire would be more secure
1071: Should the victory be massive and end up killing much of the Seljuks and Alp Arslan, then Romanos could bring his attention to the Normans and Pechenegs, he was still a weak ruler and would end up being overthrown by Alexios I Komnenos c. 1080. But with Anatolia intact and the Normans being embroiled with conflict all around them, the Byzantines could still win and defeat the Pechenegs.
1106: Alexios II Komnenos would come to the throne in 1143, he would be more knowledgable and probably would be less permissive to the West than Manuel was. Alexios would likely not go on too much military campaigns aside from countering a potential Norman invasion or in Hungary. The Empire would be richer and thus the chaos of the Angelid Dynasty would not occur and the Komnenos Dynasty continue.
1202: The crusaders would rise up at Zara enraged, lynch Enrico Dandalo, sail to Venice and sack it. This would lead to an economic crash around the Mediterranean, which would see Genoa becoming superior and the attention turning westwards. Alexios Angelos would likely retake the throne c. 1205 and would likely get overthrown by the Laskarids or the Palaiologos. I would imagine Theodore Laskaris would defeat the breakaway states and try to recuperate
1261: With Epirus and Trebizond in the Empire, Michael VII Palaiologos would perhaps unite Greece or lead campaigns in Anatolia, but the Byzantines would still be a backwater and would be attacked from all corners.
1453: To make this exciting, I would have to presume that Morea would defeat every Ottoman invasion until they move away. Morea would most likely become a centre of the Renaissance with such people as Gemistos Plethon, Bessarion and Argyropoulos in Mystras. Morea would gravitate towards Italy and would lead to Greek culture being more Italianised, with this the Ottomans would have greater control over Greece and the Greek Revolutions would be delayed or even not occur, perhaps the Ottomans control Greece as Rumelia.
602: Maurice would defeat the Bulgars and Slavs and potentially the Lombards. There would be less wars between Persia meaning a likely Byzantine victory at Yarmouk as well.
976: I also don't know but perhaps his successor could have the militarism of Basil but also more pragmatic and wiser from being brought up in the palace, I would want him to prepare the Empire for the Seljuks, Normans and Pechenegs in the end of the century but his successors may worsen this. Nevertheless the Empire would be more secure
1071: Should the victory be massive and end up killing much of the Seljuks and Alp Arslan, then Romanos could bring his attention to the Normans and Pechenegs, he was still a weak ruler and would end up being overthrown by Alexios I Komnenos c. 1080. But with Anatolia intact and the Normans being embroiled with conflict all around them, the Byzantines could still win and defeat the Pechenegs.
1106: Alexios II Komnenos would come to the throne in 1143, he would be more knowledgable and probably would be less permissive to the West than Manuel was. Alexios would likely not go on too much military campaigns aside from countering a potential Norman invasion or in Hungary. The Empire would be richer and thus the chaos of the Angelid Dynasty would not occur and the Komnenos Dynasty continue.
1202: The crusaders would rise up at Zara enraged, lynch Enrico Dandalo, sail to Venice and sack it. This would lead to an economic crash around the Mediterranean, which would see Genoa becoming superior and the attention turning westwards. Alexios Angelos would likely retake the throne c. 1205 and would likely get overthrown by the Laskarids or the Palaiologos. I would imagine Theodore Laskaris would defeat the breakaway states and try to recuperate
1261: With Epirus and Trebizond in the Empire, Michael VII Palaiologos would perhaps unite Greece or lead campaigns in Anatolia, but the Byzantines would still be a backwater and would be attacked from all corners.
1453: To make this exciting, I would have to presume that Morea would defeat every Ottoman invasion until they move away. Morea would most likely become a centre of the Renaissance with such people as Gemistos Plethon, Bessarion and Argyropoulos in Mystras. Morea would gravitate towards Italy and would lead to Greek culture being more Italianised, with this the Ottomans would have greater control over Greece and the Greek Revolutions would be delayed or even not occur, perhaps the Ottomans control Greece as Rumelia.
@Amagi
I generally agree with your statements but disagree on some parts.
For example I’m not sure if despite taking Italy and Illyria that he could actually take Spain and southern Gaul. Even with a quick victory there I feel like he’d decide to focus on the Persians when they started acting up. And I’m not sure if this time around if the Slavs would have as much success. With these reconquered lands (that aren’t destroyed this time) and maybe some butterflies to get the better Justinian II for example.
Also I doubt this Alexios II wouldn’t focus on Anatolia and continue its reconquest. Without being sidetracked to Italy and Egypt I bet he’d retake more of it and put the empire down the path to a total reconquest of it.
While Trebizond and Epirus rejoining the empire and Greece being secure doesn’t fix it all the empire would definitely be far better off and able to focus more on the east and with better leadership this time could have a lot more success there.
Also if morea did somehow remain free of ottoman rule I don’t think it would end any chance of the rest of Greece breaking free. Once nationalism becomes a thing it’s only a matter of time before the Greeks rise up too. Although it would most likely massively change the post revolution Greece that we know of. It could mean a revival of the ERE (even if only greece) and not calling themselves Hellenes or whatever.
I generally agree with your statements but disagree on some parts.
For example I’m not sure if despite taking Italy and Illyria that he could actually take Spain and southern Gaul. Even with a quick victory there I feel like he’d decide to focus on the Persians when they started acting up. And I’m not sure if this time around if the Slavs would have as much success. With these reconquered lands (that aren’t destroyed this time) and maybe some butterflies to get the better Justinian II for example.
Also I doubt this Alexios II wouldn’t focus on Anatolia and continue its reconquest. Without being sidetracked to Italy and Egypt I bet he’d retake more of it and put the empire down the path to a total reconquest of it.
While Trebizond and Epirus rejoining the empire and Greece being secure doesn’t fix it all the empire would definitely be far better off and able to focus more on the east and with better leadership this time could have a lot more success there.
Also if morea did somehow remain free of ottoman rule I don’t think it would end any chance of the rest of Greece breaking free. Once nationalism becomes a thing it’s only a matter of time before the Greeks rise up too. Although it would most likely massively change the post revolution Greece that we know of. It could mean a revival of the ERE (even if only greece) and not calling themselves Hellenes or whatever.
Tbf with a POD like 1202 I'd like to see the Empire do well but not great. Like they'd just be anchored on the Taurus and leave Central Anatolia to the nomads until guns and focus on Bulgaria and Serbia and try to convince them that they're Greek. Tbf I'd like to see Egypt and Turks vs ERE + Trebizond (personal union or not) and Armenian Cilicia. Tbf the empire would need another retuning by the 1500s tho which hopefully would allow them to survive and fight against the Muslim Powers.
Also seeing Venice be fucked by the Crusaders would be great. Maybe they send the knowledge of the excommunication to the French?
Tbf I'd like to see Venice be razed ittl considering how much of Venice is built rebuilding would not be fun.
Also Theodore Laskaris would just get on the throne after Alexios Angelos got disposed and maybe try to get the Empire back to 1200 borders which should be barely doable. If Bulgaria becomes the heartlands of the new empire once again the ere should be a solid state.
Also I'd also like to see a Cilician Armenia wank too considering how rare they are when in conjunction with the ere surviving but I'd think they'd work together against the Muslims.
Also seeing Venice be fucked by the Crusaders would be great. Maybe they send the knowledge of the excommunication to the French?
Tbf I'd like to see Venice be razed ittl considering how much of Venice is built rebuilding would not be fun.
Also Theodore Laskaris would just get on the throne after Alexios Angelos got disposed and maybe try to get the Empire back to 1200 borders which should be barely doable. If Bulgaria becomes the heartlands of the new empire once again the ere should be a solid state.
Also I'd also like to see a Cilician Armenia wank too considering how rare they are when in conjunction with the ere surviving but I'd think they'd work together against the Muslims.
Porphyrogennetos: The Empire of the Romans
Porphrogennetos The Romans and the New World (left, Basileia Rhomaion in 976 AD) (left, Phrygia, where Tzimiskes were travelling through) On the eighth of January, 976. Emperor John I Tzimiskes, scion of a distinguished family and himself a distinguished emperor, woke up in the cold...
www.alternatehistory.com
Voted for Basil II being married because that's a POD that I've never thought about, but my real answer is "whatever POD let's you tell the best story" because that's all that matters in the end. A-H is a work of fiction and fiction is about storytelling - so go with whatever let's you tell the stories you want to tell.
I consider it easier to simply have one of Basil's nieces be a nephew rather than trying to explain why Basil never married (and come up with an alt-historical scenario in which he did); presumably nobody would be mad at Basil for failing to procreate if Zoe Porphyrogenita had been born a boy instead. But either way, could be interesting to see the post-Macedonian strife avoided and have the Byzantines somehow muddle through the Turkish threat as they were able to do against the Pechenegs in the north.
There’s also the Komnenoi to factor. They took over most of the Northern half of Roman Anatolia virtually unopposed with their invasion of Trebizond starting before the Fourth Crusade happened. They had the support and backing of Queen Tamar the Great of Georgia as well.
Theodore or even Constantine Laskaris would have to deal with the Komnenoi who have an even better claim to Purple than them. Both Alexios and David were quite militarily competent as well, so I don’t see the fight being in the Laskarids’ favor.
I think that given how the Komnenoi were already on the move at the time of the sack that they’d be the most likely to succeed. The Laskarids can’t be discounted but the Komnenoi having better claims and momentum should give them the ability to take back the empire.
I don't think avoiding the justinian plague is a realistic scenario, but a quicker gothic war or the war itself not happening at all (good diplomatic relations with the ostrogoths) is cool.
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