We Shall Go On To The End: A History of the Second Great War

Introduction
Introduction

I know that this might seem like a macabre topic, but I’ve been intrigued with the idea of a Second Great War for some time now. The postwar period in Europe was chaotic, and the seeds for future conflict could have been easily sown had different decisions been made and different people placed in charge. Some may say that the Great Powers of the world would never have been stupid enough to ram themselves into the gates of total conflict a second time, but mankind has always surprised itself on its ability to fight each other. After all, one need only look at a history of the past hundred years since the war’s end to see conflicts of a vicious scale and brutal nature. Only a few small pushes to the timeline are needed to sink humanity into a second globally destructive conflict.

I have seen several timelines here on counterfactual.com dealing with this concept, but none have really grasped my attention. Sure, the idea of a Bolshevik invasion of Europe, helmed by Trotsky in the name of World Revolution, is intriguing, but the Bolsheviks (much less Trotsky) never had much chance in changing Russia in their own image without the aid of the Mensheviks and Social Revolutionaries who, in and of themselves, were horrified by the thought of “making the world safe for Marxism”. No, this timeline will take a tack that I have only seen a few throwaway scenarios and unfinished timelines pursue-

What if Germany caused another Great War?

I know the concept is laughable, especially looking at the crucial role that the German Republic has played in maintaining the post-Versailles order. It may even be offensive to some, thinking that this follows the old logic of “once the Hun, always the Hun”. However, German democracy was by no means secure post-war, and there were threats from both the Right and the Left. The victorious powers as well could have forced Germany’s hand, by either going more strongly at Versailles or scaling back their demands to all but a slap on the wrist.

Joining Germany in this merry cavalcade of death will be Japan, whose flirting with ultranationalist politics during the late 1920s and early 1930s nearly brought about a Third Sino-Japanese War (which would have likely expanded to a general Pacific War, due to Washington’s increasing Sinophilia), and Italy, which could have easily been drug down a path of chaos and radical government during the crucial post-war era. Others will join in the danse macabre, seeking to even old scores or gain new victories. I hope to show several historical figures who might have made drastic impacts on world history, had they either survived or managed to find a greater audience for their messages.


So this is a thought experiment I was kicking around today. I like the thought of alternate-alternate histories, and I wasn’t quite sure where to put this. Still, this being a post-1900 timeline (and with the ACTUAL POD being post 1900), I thought that this would be the best place to put it. We’ll see what happens with it, but I’m having some fun with the idea that this is a product of an alternate timeline, and its up to the reader to figure out what the original world is like. Its also fun, because sometimes we fall into the trap of inevitability, like "this could never happen", and we develop historical norms through that belief. Its interesting to see what other norms could have developed if events had shifted.

Basically, this whole timeline is like a DBWI, without the parts I hate. People shouting each other down and contradicting each other and wanking, I dunno… Luxembourg or something.

Anyway, we’ll see how this goes, I hope you enjoy!
 
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Just did a little bit more research, and I’ll probably revamp the first entry. I wrote it in about twenty minutes late at night! Most of the main idea will remain, but I’ll make it reach a higher standard of timeline writing.

Plus reading more about it, Scheubner-Richter makes less sense as a Hitler analog, more as a Hess or subordinate. We’ll see how this ends up, sorry!
 
Just did a little bit more research, and I’ll probably revamp the first entry. I wrote it in about twenty minutes late at night! Most of the main idea will remain, but I’ll make it reach a higher standard of timeline writing.

Plus reading more about it, Scheubner-Richter makes less sense as a Hitler analog, more as a Hess or subordinate. We’ll see how this ends up, sorry!
Suggested list of Hitler analogues:

-Heinz Auerswald
-Rudolf Hess
-Karl-Heinrich Brenner
-Franz Xaver Dorsch
 
I find centering this TL around Scheubner-Richter to be fascinating (don't think it's been done before) and something that could have some VERY interesting ramifications between Germany and the White Emigres, and therefore with Russian relations in general...
 
I find centering this TL around Scheubner-Richter to be fascinating (don't think it's been done before) and something that could have some VERY interesting ramifications between Germany and the White Emigres, and therefore with Russian relations in general...
He’ll remain a major player in the TL, don’t worry. I’m finding a lot of interesting figures to come in and fill positions in Germany. I just don’t see him as the main leadership figure, is all. I need someone with a certain... presence, you know?

I’m also rewriting for more detail about what’s going on, expect it and a revamped introduction tonight.
 
Good work so far, keep it up and good luck with it!

Short of butterflying away the ToV completely, anything that butterflies away the mustachioed Austrian is (in general) good by me...
 
Here are a few more suggestions:
-Karl Friedrich Florian
-Curt von Gottberg
-Ulrich Graf
-Wolf-Heinrich Graf von Helldorff
-Adolf Hühnlein
-Hans Jüttner
-Walter Köhler
-Gustav Krukenberg
-Hinrich Lohse
-Kurt Lüdecke
-Alfred Meyer
-Martin Mutschmann
-Arthur Nebe
-Arthur Rödl
-Julian Scherner
-Ernst Schlange
 
Vae Victis
Vae Victis

I. The Treaty of Versailles (1919-1920)

Much of the blame for the Second Great War has traditionally been laid at the feet of the Treaty of Versailles. This view, of course, ignores the agency of political actors, as well as a variety of other factors ranging from economics to social transitions, but the Treaty nevertheless provides an important place to begin our examination. Its very nature creates a clean break from the First Great War period, as well as demonstrating the attitudes of both the victorious Allied powers and the vanquished Germans.

The negotiations at Versailles were masterfully dominated by the French. While the British did seek to apply pressure, without the presence of an effective American negotiator to enforce the 14 Points (Woodrow Wilson having died of a stroke on the voyage over to Europe), the spirit of revanche carried the day. Paramount in the French agenda was the creation of an independent Rhineland buffer state. In his view, France lacked a “natural frontier” with Germany. The River Rhine provided such a frontier, allowing France valuable breathing room as well as depriving Germany of its most productive industrial area. The products of that industry, as well as the overall governance of the region, would be observed by an international coalition of the victorious Entente powers.

The United Kingdom sought to ease this blow against German national pride and territorial integrity, but soon found themselves decried as “pro-German” by Prime Minister Georges Clemenceau. Without Wilson, the American delegation was unable to mediate between the two interests or provide a strong backing to the British point of view. In the end, a “gentleman’s agreement” was made between the United Kingdom and France, where Britain would annex the entirety of Germany’s overseas African Empire (save for Rwanda and Burundi, placed under Belgian influence) in exchange for the creation of the so-called “Rhenish Republic”. This was warmly received by many upper-echelon figures in France, most notably Marshal Ferdinand Foch, who stated that ‘Henceforward Germany [shall] be deprived of [their] entrance and assembling ground” from which they were able to so rapidly advance into France at the beginning of the Great War.

In addition to this territorial cession, a harsh war reparation would be leveled against the Germans, aimed at destroying their economy and preventing them from ever being able to wage war on such a scale every again. Their army was to be limited to a defensive force of no more than 100,000, with no air force to speak of and no battleships for their fleets. West Prussia would be stripped away and granted to Poland, to give it access to the sea, as well as parts of Posen to be determined by a referendum. Finally, all guilt for the war was placed squarely on German shoulders, despite the now defunct Austro-Hungarian monarchy being the ones who were originally aggressors.

In Germany, this treaty was not well received by anyone. As discussions turned more heavily against them, the German delegation declared the entire process was an “insult to honor” and withdrew from the proceedings. When the final treaty was presented for signing, Chancellor Philipp Scheidemann resigned rather than being the one to affix his name to such a document. President Friedrich Ebert, hoping against hope for a military option, pleaded with Field Marshal Paul Hindenburg if there was any chance at all that Germany’s army could resist a potential Allied invasion to enforce what was being labeled the Diktat. Hindenburg initially made positive noises but was quickly forced to back away from his bellicose position by subordinates more grounded in political realities. With little choice, the German Republican government signed the treaty, narrowly passing it in the National Assembly.

This was met with immediate uproar from Germans across the political spectrum. The Right demonstrated against the harsh treatment Germany had received, declaring that the forces of democracy and Marxism (encapsulated in the Social Democratic Party) had betrayed the German Army and the German people. This “stabbed in the back” myth would be exacerbated by statements by President Ebert, who declared in a message to returning German veterans that “no army has vanquished you”. Though he may not have intended it, many veterans received this with confusion. If no army had vanquished them, why was Germany losing the Rhineland?

From the Left, anger against the Treaty of Versailles was also harsh and mostly fixated around the loss of the Rhineland. This valuable industrial area was a fertile ground for the revolutionary message, and with it stripped away, many Communists felt as if the National Assembly had purposefully sought to limit their influence in the fledgling Republic. Combined with bitter memories of the still smoldering German Civil War, the Left felt as if the Social Democratic Party had betrayed their Marxist roots by selling out the comrades in the Rhineland.

With its legitimacy shaken, the German Republican government did its best to soldier on, returning to Berlin in August of 1919 after having been forced to shelter in the city of Weimar. However, the cracks in the foundation were already evident. They would only get worse with time.



II. The Foundation of the Rhenish Republic (1919-1920)

When Alled troops advanced to occupy the Rhineland in the latter-half of 1919, they were met with both stunned silence and angered protest. Gun battles against militias of various political leanings were commonplace, all battling against the occupiers and pushing in favor of renunciation of the Rhineland clause of the Treaty of Versailles. This, of course, did not happen; Clemenceau’s public would not have allowed him to, neither would the opinions of his generals. To many politicians and soldiers in the Entente, however, the image of Germans struggling against their efforts in the Rhineland would be a dramatic memory. One which would come back strongly almost two decades later.

However, the Allied occupation force (mainly comprised of Americans, British, and French, although there was a small Belgian and an even smaller Italian contingent) was dutiful in its goal of setting up an independent state on the Left Bank of the Rhine. Temporary government took the form of the Allied Military Council, consisting of representatives from the three leading occupying powers was set up to govern the territory until a constituent assembly could be gathered to write a constitution. It was believed that this would be a difficult task, given general German antipathy to the presence of occupation powers.

However, the Allied Military Council would be surprised by the presence of a small but rather coherent movement of men who had been pushing for an independent Rhineland for the better part of a year. These fledgling nationalists placed the blame for the war on Berlin, rather than on Paris, and believed that the Rhineland would be better served outside of the grasp of Prussian militaristic influence. Those that had favored autonomy were headed by Cologne Mayor Konrad Adenauer; those who favored independence were guided by Hans Adam Dorten, military officer and lawyer.

Dorten proved to be an enthusiastic collaborator with the Allied Military Council’s wishes, but Adenauer was less so. He had believed in a Rhinish Republic that was a constituent part of the German Republic, rather than an independent entity. Still, not wanting to leave the assembly totally controlled by Dorten and his supporters, Adenauer agreed to attend the meetings. Debate and negotiations at the assembly, constantly monitored by Allied forces, eventually agreed to the creation of the Rhenish Republic. Elections, held in May of 1920, would see Adenauer and Dorten heading two different political parties; Adenauer, the Rhenish Social Union, Dorten the Rhenish People’s Union. Adenauer’s party was hampered by the fact that most citizens who would have been sympathetic to his views had elected to boycott and protest the elections instead. Thus, the Rhinish People’s Union, much less popular overall and decried as bootlickers of the French, was swept into power, and Dorten became the first President of the Republic.

resolve

President Hans Dorten

This result, however, triggered the first organized resistance to the occupation. On June 2, 1920, socialist workers militia launched an attempted putsch against Dorten’s government, engaging Allied forces in a fierce gunfight across the city of Cologne. The arrival of reinforcements saved the day, resulting in a failure for the socialists. However, similar actions would take place across the Rhineland over the course of the summer, giving it the name the “Red Summer”. The presence of Allied forces, however, prevented them from getting too much success. Indeed, the losses suffered in the Red Summer likely broke the back of leftist armed resistance in the Rhineland for almost a decade, forcing those who opposed the government to adopt less violent methods. The rallying cry now became “the ballot, not the bullet”.

The Red Summer also demonstrated that the occupation and propping up of the Rhenish Republic at bayonet point would be a violent and long-term affair. As war fatigue set in at the home front, many American and British mothers would wonder why their sons were still fighting and dying when the war was over. French mothers may have also wondered that, but many were elated at reports of new victories against the Germans. Rhine-fever had gripped the French public, as revanche had years before. It would take an event harsher than the abortive Red Summer to snap them out of it.



III. The Fate of Austria-Hungary and the “Betrayal” of Italy (1919-1920)

Simultaneous to the deliberations of the Treaty of Versailles, other delegates gathered to discuss the fate of Austria-Hungary. Of course, the fate of that ancient Habsburg state had already been sealed, both with Karl I’s abdication and the Hungarian declaration that the union was terminated. But there was still much to discuss. Austria, or more properly the Republic of German-Austria, wished to be united with the German Republic, and Hungary wished to retain as much of its traditional Crownland as possible.

Neither would get their wish. The Treaty of St. Germaine would prohibit union of any kind between Austria and Germany. The Republic’s hope of retaining the ethnically German Sudetenland was also dashed, with that territory incorporated into the new Republic of Czechoslovakia. The Hungarians were also subject to the firm hand of Allied retribution, losing much of their peripheral territories, including Translyvania, Banat, Vojvodina, and their stake in Croatia. The rump-state of Hungary, therefore, had millions of Hungarians living outside of its borders, though spread out across several territories.

Most intriguing was the Allied disregarding of the Pact of London. Signed in 1915, the Pact of London was the document that convinced the Italians to betray the Central Powers and join the Allied cause. A protectorate over Albania and a chunk of Dalmatia was promised to the Italians. However, with the rise of Allied support of the Yugoslav movement, Italy found itself in a strange situation. While it did expand, gaining South Tyrol, the former Austrian Littoral, and splitting Albania between itself and Greece, it did not receive the Dalmatian claims it had hoped for. Instead, the newly formed Kingdom of Serbs, Croats, and Slovenes expanded into areas previously assigned to Italy. This included several settlements with Italian majorities, including the city of Rijeka (known in Italian as Fiume).

Rijeka would be the site of a crucial development. In September of 1919, an Italian soldier named Gabriele D’Annunzio attempted to seize control of the city, alongside a force of veterans and irredentists. The Allied occupation force stood strong, resulting in a firefight that was resolved by the Italian government itself intervening and annihilating D’Annunzio’s force. This would confirm Rijeka’s annexation by the Kingdom of Serbs, Croats, and Slovenes, as well as reinforce to many angered Italians that the Italian government did not care that their brothers were trapped on the other side of the border. This was not a fair assessment- of course the government cared, and had lodged many complaints with the British, French, and American governments. D’Annunzio was a madman, who had to be stopped.

dannunzio.jpg

Gabriele D’Annunzio, would-be liberator of Fiume

Nevertheless, many Italians came to believe that their victory in the Great War was nothing but a “mutilated victory”. Thousands of Italian servicemen had died fighting against the Central Powers, and in the end their sacrifice was for naught. Sure, Italy expanded, but the Allies had gone back on their word. This was unforgivable, and would lead the Italians down a road that would, in time, place them in opposition to their former allies.



IV. The Caliphate (1919-1923)

While the Italians were not able to claim victory in the Adriatic, they could claim some consolation in Turkey. The Treaty of Sevres all but destroyed the territories of the Ottoman Empire, creating both spheres of influence and zones of actual control in the Anatolian heartland. Italy was granted a large sphere of influence in the southern coastline of Anatolia, while the Greeks expanded their territory across the Sea of Marmara. The French, too, expanded their influence, alongside the British. The fledgling League of Nations was also given territory to administer- the Straits, including the valuable city of Constantinople, as well as other important Turkish ports.

Of course, such a treaty was not well received by the Turkish people. Initial resistance seemed to build under the leadership of Mustafa Kemal Pasha, but after he was captured and executed by forces loyal to the Sultan, the infant nationalist movement seemed weakened. Efforts to fight against the French Armenian Legion and forces loyal to the Sultan were rebuffed. Though anti-Sevres sentiments would remain strong in Turkish society, there was little actual military force to back it. Indeed, the Turks would have likely grimly kept along, had it not been for the Greek miscalculation.

The Kingdom of Greece, buoyed by the domination of the pro-Allied and generally republican leaning Venizelos government (vis-à-vis Royal authority, somewhat diminished in this period), began a campaign to expand the Greek zone of actual control in Anatolia. This was due to the presence of large Greek communities, as well as a belief that the Allies would be supportive of such a movement. However, what happened instead was a hardening of Turkish attitudes, as well as a general condemnation of Greece by the Allies. Most notable in this condemnation was Italy, which did not support the Greek advance into its own granted zone of influence.

The Ottoman government, desperate for any sort of solution, cast a telegram to its prodigal son. Enver Pasha, who had once been hailed as hero of the Young Turk revolution, and more recently been sentenced to death in absentia for dragging the Empire into the Great War, returned from his brief exile. Enver Pasha managed to rally together the Turks in the name of pan-Turkism and Islam, and launched a brutal counterattack (with sometimes not so clandestine aid from Italy, loathe to see Greek expansion). The Greeks were slowed, then halted, and then gradually pushed back. However, they managed to halt their retreat near the original jumping off point of their invasion, leading to an eventual cease-fire.

Enver_Pasha_1911.jpg

Enver Pasha, “Protector of the Realm”
However, one of the reasons they were able to halt the Turkish counterattacks was the fact that Enver Pasha was busy settling old scores. He turned against the Armenians, who were attempting to both establish their own state over territory with a diverse population and recover from their genocide (which he had overseen), smashing them alongside Soviet troops invading from the North. The Kurds, who were setting up their own dream of autonomy, were also repressed. Internal enemies, such as those who wished to end the Ottoman system or were opposed to political Islam, were lined up against the wall. A new treaty recognized the Greek presence in Anatolia, per Sevres, but the other European powers, tired of war and not willing to support efforts in the periphery, withdrew from all but the Straits.

Enver Pasha now had established a Turkish state, one which he would build along the dream of pan-Turkism and loyalty to Islamic ideals. His influence would lead Turkey down a path that, to some Western observers, seemed more in line with the 16th Century, rather than the 20th.



V. Japan Sidelined (1919-1922)

Of all the Allied powers in the First Great War, Japan had suffered the least. Its efforts had driven Germany out of the Pacific, and its assistance had greatly freed up British resources in the Mediterranean and East Asia. Surely, now, with Japanese participation in the war combined with the recent triumph of 1905, Japan would be treated as an equal? Surely, Japan had proven itself every bit as worthy as a European Great Power to sit at the table?

No?

A proposed addendum to the Treaty of Versailles, recognizing the equality of the races, was ignored and voted down by the European powers. This surprised and angered the Japanese delegation. Why were the Europeans so insistent on their superiority, when Japan had proven again and again that it was as good as they were? Did not Japan have a constitutional monarchy? A thriving industrial economy? A navy, the envy of much of the Western world?

And, now, what was this additional insult? The Chinese population of the former German concession at Shandong, agitating against Japanese control of the area. Surely, the Allied powers would stand with Japan, the power that had secured this port as part of the combined war effort. Surely, just as the Allied powers had expanded their colonial grasp over the German outposts in Africa and the Turkish holdings in the Middle East, Japan would be allowed this one concession?

No?

To Japan, it seemed as if they were being held to a different standard than their European counterparts. Something would have to be done, something to prove that Japan was every bit the Europeans equal. Or even their superior, as some voices whispered from the dark recesses of the Japanese far-right. Japan’s constitutional government, army, and navy would soon find themselves in an intricate dance for influence and control, as attitudes against the traditional British ally hardened and relations with the traditional American rival soured.
 
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you're welcome, it's a nice idea your timeline.
Although i think i'm seeing some similarities with the fuhrerreich scenario
I think we both have an independent Rhineland (which was something heavily discussed at Versailles), and the Greeks manage to hold onto their original Anatolian cession (which they did because Enver Pasha wasn’t as brilliant as Mustafa Kemal Pasha), but that’s where the similarities end. There won’t be Valkism or anything ridiculous like that.
 
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pls don't ban me

Monthly Donor
I think we both have an independent Rhineland (which was something heavily discussed at Versailles), And the Greeks manage to hold onto their original Anatolian cession (which they did because Enver Pasha wasn’t as brilliant as Mustafa Kemal Pasha), but that’s where the similarities end. There won’t be Valkism or anything ridiculous like that.
GOOD. i hated that stuff.
 
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