War of the French Succession

[Susano]

Per wiki (boo hiss):

However, dramatic events altered the shape of the royal family. In 1700, the Duke of Anjou became King of Spain under the name Philip V, inheriting the crown from his grandmother, wife of Louis XIV and a Spanish princess. In the War of the Spanish Succession that followed, Philip V had to renounce all claims to the French throne. England was loath to see Spain and its colonial empire united with France under a single king in the future. The renunciation of Philip V was not a major problem for Louis XIV since he had so many other male descendants. However, in April 1711 the Dauphin died suddenly, and the Duke of Burgundy became Dauphin, heir to the throne. Then one year later, the vigorous and lively Marie-Adélaïde of Savoy contracted smallpox (or measles) and died on February 12, 1712, to the dismay of the old king Louis XIV. Her husband, heartbroken by the death of his wife, died within a week of the same disease. Within a week of the Dauphin's death, it was also clear that the two children of the couple had caught the virus. The eldest son, the Duc de Bretagne, was bled repeatedly by doctors and died on March 8, 1712. His younger brother Louis XV was saved by his governess Madame de Ventadour, who vigorously forbade doctors to bleed the young boy and personally looked after him during his illness. Then finally in 1714 the Duc de Berry, youngest son of le Grand Dauphin, died.

So, what if the IOTL later Louis XV died as well?
Per the sucession laws, since Philip has renounced his claim, sucession should go to the Orleans line, though I have no doubt Philip would ifnd a legal reason why his renouncation was meaningless. So wed have another one of those classical 18th century sucession wars, but now with a Great Power (THE Great Power of the time) at the centre.

Thoughts?

 

[Grey Wolf]

I guess it depends on whom the 'French establishment' support. If they back Orleans, then Philip is in the position of basically invading France with Spanish troops to try to enforce his claim.

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

 

[seraphim74]

I'm not sure if any country in Europe was interested in France and Spain united under one monarch. Such union would be too powerful, especially considering territorial losses both states suffered after war for Spanish succession. Everybody would be affraid they would try to get them back. I believe Britain, the Netherlands and most probably emperor Charles VI would unanimously support the house of Orlean. In such case, Philip's chances are rather small. First, France itself, or at least part of it, will fight. Second, combined navies of Britain and Netherlands are more than capable to defeat Spanish fleet, especially with help of French fleet. Third, forces of allies seriously outnumber Spanish army, which wasn't in good shape even during previous war.
I don't know how many followers Philip could gain in France itself, but I'm pretty sure an idea of Spanish monarch on French throne wouldn't be particularly tempting to French aristocracy. I know Philip was actually French, but his main power base was Spain and Spanish lords, not the French. So, king's generosity would be reserved mostly for Spaniards, while in case of Orlean's victory, only French aristocracy would be in king's graces.
Frankly, Philip would have had to be mad to try it. Both France and Spain were weakened after war for Spanish succession. Britain, Netherlands and HRE fought once to stop union of France and Spain, they would have fought against it again. What is worse, Philip could not even count on full support from the French. Pure suicide.

 

[Nicomacheus]

It does, however, do very interesting things to the rest of the 18th century. Let's say there's a short war or perhaps simply a diplomatic crisis. The Orleans line ends up on the throne, but Philip V has some kind of claim on the throne of France. This greatly effects the War of Austrian Succession and the Seven Years' war. Hence, it might alter the balance of affairs in the American Revolution and the French Revolution. And the death of Louis XV before his ascension to the throne would be a relatively easy POD.

 

[Susano]

I'm not sure if any country in Europe was interested in France and Spain united under one monarch. Such union would be too powerful, especially considering territorial losses both states suffered after war for Spanish succession. Everybody would be affraid they would try to get them back. I believe Britain, the Netherlands and most probably emperor Charles VI would unanimously support the house of Orlean. In such case, Philip's chances are rather small. First, France itself, or at least part of it, will fight. Second, combined navies of Britain and Netherlands are more than capable to defeat Spanish fleet, especially with help of French fleet. Third, forces of allies seriously outnumber Spanish army, which wasn't in good shape even during previous war.

GB, the Netherllands, the HRE, many states inside the HRE (both Austria and Prussia) - they still have scores to settle with France, though. Plenty of bad feeling from the Sun King's wars of aggression. And I dont think Philip is stupid, hed realise he cant unite France and Spain under hi person. However, he could compromise on that the thrones are split between his sons, and could try to for him personally trade the Spanish with the more prestigeous French throne. I dont think Frances enemies care for who sits in Versailles, as long as he doesnt rule Spain...

I don't know how many followers Philip could gain in France itself, but I'm pretty sure an idea of Spanish monarch on French throne wouldn't be particularly tempting to French aristocracy. I know Philip was actually French, but his main power base was Spain and Spanish lords, not the French. So, king's generosity would be reserved mostly for Spaniards, while in case of Orlean's victory, only French aristocracy would be in king's graces.

I dunno how "Spanish" Philip would be... from what I gather he "remained" rather French his entire life. Maybe he would favour Frenchmen. Or maybe not - in the end most Succession Wars (the Spanish one being an exception) war wars between states and not civil wars, so it doesnt matter greatly. It would be a war between France and Spain, and of course, it depends on wether the latter can gain support.

 

[V-J]

The absolutely crucial thing here is that likely nobody would back Phillip. I'm sure he wouldn't be able to enforce his claim within France, for the simple reason that Orleans was already in charge there; and almost none of the great powers which had fought against Louis XIV in the War of the Spanish Succession would in any likelihood be willing to fight for him either. Perhaps more than anything else, I doubt Europe would want another conflagration over issues which had already been seemingly settled. Philip would, let's remember, be breaking his explicit word.

It would, however, have possible repurcussions. The 'diplomatic revolution' of the mid 18th century which saw the traditional focus of France's diplomacy coming to rest on Austria instead of it's historical ally of Prussia may be offset, depending on what shape the war has. You could potentially see France gravitate towards Britain and Prussia, which would certainly be an interesting combo.

 

[seraphim74]

Originally posted by Susano
GB, the Netherllands, the HRE, many states inside the HRE (both Austria and Prussia) - they still have scores to settle with France, though. Plenty of bad feeling from the Sun King's wars of aggression. And I dont think Philip is stupid, hed realise he cant unite France and Spain under hi person. However, he could compromise on that the thrones are split between his sons, and could try to for him personally trade the Spanish with the more prestigeous French throne. I dont think Frances enemies care for who sits in Versailles, as long as he doesnt rule Spain...

But would the Spaniards (i.e. Spanish aristocracy, cause nobody cared what common soldiers thought) fight for the king who wants to leave them? They are proud people (as every aristocracy), they wouldn't be happy about monarch who prefers French crown over Spanis one. Besides, I think that two brothers on French and Spanish throne would also be too much for other countries to swallow.

I dunno how "Spanish" Philip would be... from what I gather he "remained" rather French his entire life. Maybe he would favour Frenchmen. Or maybe not - in the end most Succession Wars (the Spanish one being an exception) war wars between states and not civil wars, so it doesnt matter greatly. It would be a war between France and Spain, and of course, it depends on wether the latter can gain support.

Now you're practically talking about conquest of France by Spain. Even if Philip emerges victorious (extremely improbable), he can not trust most of the French aristocracy, because many of their sons, brothers and fathers died fighting the Spaniards. Unless of course duke of Orlean does something incredibly stupid and outrageous to turn all French noblemen against himself. But even then, again, we have France and Spain united under one monarch: in 1715 Philip's sons were 8, 3 and 1 years old. Even assuming that Philip managed to make his eldest son, Louis, king of France, ca 1720, the boy is still only 13, and it is obvious his father is the one who really rules the country. So Britain, Netherlands and HRE have every reason to support duke of Orlean to keep Spain and France separated.

 

[Susano]

But would the Spaniards (i.e. Spanish aristocracy, cause nobody cared what common soldiers thought) fight for the king who wants to leave them? They are proud people (as every aristocracy), they wouldn't be happy about monarch who prefers French crown over Spanis one. Besides, I think that two brothers on French and Spanish throne would also be too much for other countries to swallow.

Why? That wouldve been the outcome of the War of the Spanish Succession, too, if it hadnt been for all those deaths in the French Royal family. And the Spanish nobles would this way gain an underaged king and a regency, hence much opportunity to extend their powerbase. I would think such pargmatism would figure in more than any national pride.

Now you're practically talking about conquest of France by Spain.

As said: Thats how Succession Wars went at that time.

Even if Philip emerges victorious (extremely improbable), he can not trust most of the French aristocracy, because many of their sons, brothers and fathers died fighting the Spaniards. Unless of course duke of Orlean does something incredibly stupid and outrageous to turn all French noblemen against himself.

Probable if Philip finds support, outright impossible if he doesnt, so thats the two possibilities we have. if he doesnt find support, then the effect is "merely" what Nicomacheaus describes, Spain and France estranged from each other. If he does find support, though, well thats what we discuss atm.

Now how Philip would be receievd would depend on how he starts his reign. Wars were common at that time, and usually did not sour relations for long. And nobles sons didnt die that easily in wars, either. Both is looking at it with rather modern eyes. If Philips clever he can smooth teh state of affairs again. Of course, if he isnt, then not, heh.

But even then, again, we have France and Spain united under one monarch: in 1715 Philip's sons were 8, 3 and 1 years old. Even assuming that Philip managed to make his eldest son, Louis, king of France, ca 1720, the boy is still only 13, and it is obvious his father is the one who really rules the country. So Britain, Netherlands and HRE have every reason to support duke of Orlean to keep Spain and France separated.

Thats what regencies are for. If Philip abdicates as King of Spain to become King of France, and makes Louis the Dauphin, a regency can be set up Ferdinand as King of Spain. And that regency can be set up by terms agreed on with the other powers.