USSR attack Pakistan in the 1980th

Flocculencio

Donor
Tuhachevskey said:
Bases, training camps.....
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As I said- it's not that easy to wipe out a relatively low tech setup like that from the air. The Soviets would actually have to go in on the ground to do this. If this happens they have just invaded an official American allied state as well as trespassed on what their ally India considers it's own sphere of influence.
 

Earling

One thing, how good were Indian-Pakistan relations at this point?

Could the USSR somehow put pressure on India to put pressure on Pakistan to put pressure on the camps?
 

Ak-84

Banned
Their is one 800 pound gorilla in the room that everybody is ignoring; actually two and maybe three,

First one the Durant Line. It was designed with the Russians in mind by the Brits. Pakistani side has all the heights in what is the worst terrain in the world. There are only two routes and roads from which the Russians can attack into Pakstan, one is the Khybar Pass, the other the Bolan pass. Both are covered by a corps plus troops, who will occupy the heights. The terrian will pretty much neutralise the Soviets advantages in air and armour, air attacks, will be suicidal at low altitude and ineffective at high altitude. And even when the cross the pass, they have mountainous terrain all the way down south till after Islamabad.

Second
By this time the Pakistanis had nukes, only a few, and B-57 bombers to deliver them.

Third
The Russians never had the capability to mount an invasion with the 6 or so divisions they had in Afghanistan. Zia used to say that he would get worried when they moved some of the Cat 1 divisions from E Germany, and the massive air regiments, and then he would invite the Americans in.


All in all, an attack was not as simple, and with the formations they had, the terrain, and the level of resistance expected, impossible unless they greatly increased their military capabilitys in the region, an effort which would be countered by a US reponse, perhaps with their XVIII Corps.

To take an example, the 1968 invasion of Czechoslovakia included 300,000 men in about 25 divisions. The forces in Afghanistan never exceeded 6 divisions or 100,000 men (and this includes the indep regts that were involved).
 

Ak-84

Banned
Earling said:
One thing, how good were Indian-Pakistan relations at this point?

Could the USSR somehow put pressure on India to put pressure on Pakistan to put pressure on the camps?
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They nearly went to war in '84 and '87.
 

Ak-84

Banned
Tuhachevskey said:
To Ak-84.
We dont interfere in Pakistan, we bomb it!
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That you did. Su-24s used to attack the bases and camps. Many were shot down by PAF fighters or chased away.

here
http://s188567700.online.de/CMS/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=171&Itemid=47


Unless the USSR uses nukes, bombing on its own is going to achieve nothing. The Pakistanis will simply respond by increasing the level of the insurgency.

Historically the Pakistanis kept the insurgents on a tight leash, they felt that beyond a certain point the effects would fall on them.

As Zia said it should be very warm for the Russians, not cold or hot.

A good book to read is Bear Trap.
 

bm79

Should the Russians try to force the Khyber Pass, especially during Reagan's administration, it would have the same consequences as their breaking through the Fulda Gap: the Americans would say cease and desist, or face Armegeddon.
 

Ak-84

Banned
Tuhachevskey said:
You' ve forgotten about Tu-16/tu-95-strategic bombers.
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No I have'nt. Again, what purpose would they serve? The Americans could not stop the Vietnamese despite having a far greater bombing potential than the USSR would have. Bombing would create a lot of casualties, but would not stop the flow, at least not for long.


And its not like Pakistan did not have an airforce. To defeat it the Russians would need a far greater committment than they were willing to give Afghanistan in OTL. You need to have a change in the Kremlins strategic perception of the place for them to allow such a deployment.
 

Ak-84

Banned
bm79 said:
Should the Russians try to force the Khyber Pass, especially during Reagan's administration, it would have the same consequences as their breaking through the Fulda Gap: the Americans would say cease and desist, or face Armegeddon.
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Very true. Though the Americans might have been hard pressed for troops, esp considering their committment to europe and E Asia.
 

Tuhachevskey

Ak-84 said:
No I have'nt. Again, what purpose would they serve? The Americans could not stop the Vietnamese despite having a far greater bombing potential than the USSR would have. Bombing would create a lot of casualties, but would not stop the flow, at least not for long.


And its not like Pakistan did not have an airforce. To defeat it the Russians would need a far greater committment than they were willing to give Afghanistan in OTL. You need to have a change in the Kremlins strategic perception of the place for them to allow such a deployment.
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I have hang out the list of russian Airforces aabove. You can see fighters in this list-they could protect bombers and Su-24 from Pakistan Aviation.
 

bm79

Ak-84 said:
Very true. Though the Americans might have been hard pressed for troops, esp considering their committment to europe and E Asia.
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Americans didn't have the forces available to stop the Red Army anywhere (US ground forces never exceeded 150.000 in Europe)... that's why there were thousands of Minuteman missiles parked in silos across the Midwest. Reagan would have threatened nuclear war if the Russians tried to force the Khyber Pass, since they could consider that a first strike.

Hell, considering that the Americans were almost as strategically involved in Pakistan as they were in West Germany, you'd almost have to assume that such an attack would be accompanied by a nuclear first strike by the Russians, which makes the whole scenario ASB. Brezhnev is not going to risk the destruction of his nation over a bunch of Muslim rebels.
 

Ak-84

Banned
I don't doubt that Russia (or more accuratly the USSR) had the capability to destroy the PAF or any Pakistani resistance. The question is whether the forces in theater had that capability. The answer I think is; no. Which is why attacks in OTL were limited and invariably suffered casualties. OTH the second question is whether or not the Soviets strategic perceptions would change that they would provide sufficient forces to achive that. The answer is again no. In OTL, Mujahideen led by Paksitani SF's carried out ops inside the USSR. Granted these were raids like SF ops, but it raises the question what exactly was the red line for the USSR, if that was not.
 

Tuhachevskey

T
o Ak-84
We do not need to destroy all Pakistan: it is necessary to put only some impacts by its northern part-it will weaken mojaheds and to serve Pakistan and the USA as a good lesson. I dont think, that pakistan could throw all aircraft on the North-it is necessary to protect border with India
 

bm79

Tuhachevskey said:
T
o Ak-84
We do not need to destroy all Pakistan: it is necessary to put only some impacts by its northern part-it will weaken mojaheds and to serve Pakistan and the USA as a good lesson. I dont think, that pakistan could throw all aircraft on the North-it is necessary to protect border with India
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In your fantasy, you seem to forget that there's a USA with 10.000+ nukes pointed at the USSR at the time... Especially since this would happen under a Reagan administration, Russia could never get away with this, full stop.
 

Tuhachevskey

bm79 said:
In your fantasy, you seem to forget that there's a USA with 10.000+ nukes pointed at the USSR at the time... Especially since this would happen under a Reagan administration, Russia could never get away with this, full stop.
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Idiocy. The USA will not begin the Third world war because of the country, which isnot a member of NATO! Except for that the USSR does not try to occupy Pakistan, to derthrow its government.....
 

Ak-84

Banned
Tuhachevskey said:
T
o Ak-84
We do not need to destroy all Pakistan: it is necessary to put only some impacts by its northern part-it will weaken mojaheds and to serve Pakistan and the USA as a good lesson. I dont think, that pakistan could throw all aircraft on the North-it is necessary to protect border with India
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If you are talking about an air campaign against NWFP and FATA, well that happened in OTL, and that did not work too well.

If you mean a full scale incursion, well that would require far more assets than what the Russians had in theater or were willing to give.

Most of the Pakistan Airforce was relocated to the western border in 1979-80.
 

Tuhachevskey

Ak-84 said:
If you are talking about an air campaign against NWFP and FATA, well that happened in OTL, and that did not work too well.

If you mean a full scale incursion, well that would require far more assets than what the Russians had in theater or were willing to give.

Most of the Pakistan Airforce was relocated to the western border in 1979-80.
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It is possible to expand a grouping of the Air Forces. Using air stations in Central Asia! 40 air army could be strengthened!
 
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