The Cuban Missile War Timeline

[Kit]

About China-wouldn't China gain some technology and experts by taking over Soviet territories in Siberia and Far East-I could see them gathering up remaining military and technological experts that survived to work for China in exchange for good living conditions, luxuries etc.
They would also pick up remaining technological equipment there and infrastructure, that could be used to study and develop it from bottom up(whats the proper word for this in english ?)

The main problem isn't getting the technical and scientific knowledge as such, it's getting the foreign investment and access to markets.

In OTL this only started in 1979, and has taken decades of huge investment by the West.

China, standing alone in 1962 with an international economy in meltdown and no-one left to invest in it is not going to bestride the world as a superpower any time soon, no matter how much territory or people they have.

Oh I think it is possible that such governments could form in Eastern and Central Europe, formed by military and blaming Communists and Soviets for all that happened, as well as the West for refusing to aid them in re-construction etc.
In real life in 60s some former military communists tried to take over power from hard-line communists that had pro-Soviet attitude by using nationalist rhetoric.

Nationalist authoritarianism is a distinct possibility yes, but fascism is something different from that. One shouldn't get one's 'isms' mixed up.

Fascism is all about a romanticised notion of national superiority, ambitious plans for the future, paranoia about enemies undermining the national spirit etc. None of those buttons are going to be very effective when pushed in post-war Europe.

 

[Shadow Knight]

About China-wouldn't China gain some technology and experts by taking over Soviet territories in Siberia and Far East-I could see them gathering up remaining military and technological experts that survived to work for China in exchange for good living conditions, luxuries etc.
They would also pick up remaining technological equipment there and infrastructure, that could be used to study and develop it from bottom up(whats the proper word for this in english ?)

Well the problem is that 99% of the people are dead and chances are those that still live are rural farmers not trained technicians (at least in any numbers that would make it worthwhile). And most of the infrastructure was blasted by nuclear weapons; given that the TL said the US was running out of targets to nuke would indicate not much was left.

 

[HurganPL]

Well the problem is that 99% of the people are dead and chances are those that still live are rural farmers not trained technicians

The original timeline given, has info about Colonel-General that survived in bunker in Far East, so I would guess other survivors are possible.

 

[Amerigo Vespucci]

The original timeline given, has info about Colonel-General that survived in bunker in Far East, so I would guess other survivors are possible.

Something that I should probably clear up -- he survived because he fled his headquarters for a bunker along the Amur River, figuring correctly that SAC wouldn't target land defenses oriented against China. It's not out of duty that he survives, merely an intelligent guess oriented at his own survival, coupled with the ability to make it to a place likely to survive. No one else really has that option.

 

[Amerigo Vespucci]

One thing about China: 1962 was the year when the disastrous experiment with rural industrialization dubbed the Great Leap Forward was finally ended, having killed an estimated 30 million people because of the disruption of agricultural production. The failure had put Mao in a difficult position and temporarily given the pragmatists (people like Liu Shaoqi, Zhou Enlai and Deng Xiaoping) the upper hand. In OTL Mao bided his time and got even by launching the Cultural Revolution in 1966; in TTL the situation may well lead to the early consolidation of the pragmatists' hold on power (something that didn't happen until 1978 in OTL).

Your comments on the agricultural situation are spot-on with what I was thinking as to the effects of the climate change in China, one of the countries harder hit by the droughts and floods caused by the wacky weather. In 1816, snow and late frosts crippled rice production in Yunnan, something that I feel would also happen here. Dealing with the aftereffects of the Great Leap will only aggravate the situation.

Can we expect to see the Cultural Revolution here? I'm thinking that with the pragmatists having somewhat more of an upper hand than in OTL, Mao may not be in a position to execute that campaign. At the very least, it might be put off for several years. In that case, China will have a better base for expansion, rather than looking inward. Does that make sense, or am I totally off base?

 

[Max Sinister]

Very good TL. Here my 2 cents:

It would be nice if you added the local time of Moscow - could help to understand the trouble of communication if one side is asleep.

An important tip to all people ISOTed into the body of a Soviet leader: Always watch the KGB boss (and former ones). They're the modern equivalent of Grand Viziers.

"his death can be played off as being the fault of a CIA assassination when the time comes" - er? Do they want to suggest that the CIA has infiltrated the Kremlin?

Why do the US want to nuke Guantanamo if their people are still there? Couldn't they nuke another Cuban city? Couldn't they threaten Castro that Havana dies if he doesn't stop the attacks?

How strong are the FROG missiles used against Guantanamo base?

I'd like to see a breakup of the death figures for Russia. How many died in the attacks, on radiation, during the winter, and so on. If that's possible. Russia's big, the attacks couldn't kill 99% of the people.

 

[bekosh]

Excellent TL!
Now my little 'quibble'

Theoretically, a nuclear-tipped BOMARC or Nike Zeus missile could destroy an incoming ICBM, but that would require a level of coordination with radar and computer-aided guidance not available in 1962.

In 1962 the Nike-Zeus was just in testing. The deployed missiles would be a mix of Nike-Ajax & Nike-Hercules. Of the 3 missle types only the Hercules has the performance to even have a chance against an ICBM, and then only barely. If you want a successful ABM engagement, you could have the Nike batteries around Miami-Homestead engage the IRBM's out of Cuba. The Hercules could probably have managed that.

Here is a good site on the Nike system. http://www.ed-thelen.org/
And a map of the batteries around Miami.

 

[Thande]

Subterrania Brittanica has a pretty good list, but the navigation and search is rather confusing. I've got a book that's pretty comprehensive, but it's back at my parent's house. I'll try and dig it out this weekend and lend it to you on the 30th if you want.

Heh.

Unfortunately I don't think I'll be able to make it on the 30th, it clashes with my graduation arrangements.

 

[Thande]

Why do the US want to nuke Guantanamo if their people are still there? Couldn't they nuke another Cuban city? Couldn't they threaten Castro that Havana dies if he doesn't stop the attacks?

There's a difference between Guantanamo city and Guantanamo Bay. IIRC the yield stated for the bomb used by the Americans would have only been a bright glow on the horizon for someone in Guantanamo Bay.

The distance is quite apparent even on a large-scale map of Cuba:

I believe the reason why Guantanamo specifically was nuked was that the Americans thought it would take out the Cuban forces massing there/put a radioactive roadblock in their way, thus relieving the pressure on their besieged troops in Guantanamo Bay base.

 

[Amerigo Vespucci]

It would be nice if you added the local time of Moscow - could help to understand the trouble of communication if one side is asleep.

Sounds like a plan.

"his death can be played off as being the fault of a CIA assassination when the time comes" - er? Do they want to suggest that the CIA has infiltrated the Kremlin?

The fake attempt doesn't have to take place in the Kremlin or even in Moscow. Reports of a heart attack would do just fine as well.

How strong are the FROG missiles used against Guantanamo base?

1-2 kilotons.

I'd like to see a breakup of the death figures for Russia. How many died in the attacks, on radiation, during the winter, and so on. If that's possible. Russia's big, the attacks couldn't kill 99% of the people.

Go right ahead and do that.

 

[Amerigo Vespucci]

In 1962 the Nike-Zeus was just in testing. The deployed missiles would be a mix of Nike-Ajax & Nike-Hercules. Of the 3 missle types only the Hercules has the performance to even have a chance against an ICBM, and then only barely. If you want a successful ABM engagement, you could have the Nike batteries around Miami-Homestead engage the IRBM's out of Cuba. The Hercules could probably have managed that.

Thanks, I'll fix that. Probably won't include a successful ABM strike, though. Nuclear-tipped interceptors aside, it's immensely difficult to do even today. Incidentally, there's the remnants of a site down here on the north side of Boca Chica Key. It's the only one of five left.

 

[Kit]

Heh.

Unfortunately I don't think I'll be able to make it on the 30th, it clashes with my graduation arrangements.

You'd prefer to graduate rather than meet with us?

 

[bekosh]

Thanks, I'll fix that. Probably won't include a successful ABM strike, though. Nuclear-tipped interceptors aside, it's immensely difficult to do even today. Incidentally, there's the remnants of a site down here on the north side of Boca Chica Key. It's the only one of five left.

I actually drive by one of the sites in my area every day.
Barracks & Command to the right of the road. Radar site on the left. I take the north south road that passes in between.
Then the launch site about a mile to the north.

 

[tantric]

this is a bit of an aside, but it bothers me that everyone seems to assume that the surviving powers would go right ahead and build more bombs. it's completely insane. it was insane to begin with, and it ruined about 1/2 of their world. why would anyone tolerate that kind of madness again? it seems more likely to me that the US population would lynch anyone wearing a uniform, not rebuild the republic that poisoned and burned their homes - and for what? every single survivor in NA and Europe would be post-traumatic shock, they are NOT going to pick up and carry on as usual.

honestly, after WWII, how did europe look at nazis? people do learn, if only through suffering.

 

[bekosh]

9:11 PM – The first SSC-1a Shaddock launched from the Cuban site reaches its target as it plummets to the sea 100 yards northwest of Raccoon Key, a suburb of Key West. The resulting 350 kiloton detonation obliterates the island, much of Key West, and the adjacent Boca Chica Naval Air station. What portions of the town and base survive the blast are soon engulfed by the resulting firestorm.

Another one or two. Is it Boca Chica NAS or is it Key West NAS on Boca Chica Key?

Looks like you nailed the effects. Good-bye Key West and the station is well within the area for a firestorm.(<3.5-4miles) Any particular reason to annihilate your home town?
350kt detonation ~100 yards NW of Raccoon Key

9:12:56 PM – The hastily-launched SS-4 impacts three miles south of the small town of Eufala, Alabama, on the Alabama-Georgia border. Due to not having been spun up and fired properly, the missile oscillated in flight, revolving in a roughly circular pattern that brought it several hundred kilometers west of its intended target – Jacksonville, Florida.

2- I think you ment Eufaula, Alabama.
What do you have against small towns in Alabama? 1.1mt!

 

[Amerigo Vespucci]

this is a bit of an aside, but it bothers me that everyone seems to assume that the surviving powers would go right ahead and build more bombs. it's completely insane. it was insane to begin with, and it ruined about 1/2 of their world. why would anyone tolerate that kind of madness again? it seems more likely to me that the US population would lynch anyone wearing a uniform, not rebuild the republic that poisoned and burned their homes - and for what? every single survivor in NA and Europe would be post-traumatic shock, they are NOT going to pick up and carry on as usual.

I agree with you, myself. There's going to be immense pressure to eliminate remaining nuclear weapons, and the United States is really going to be the only country with any left at the end of the war. China, India, and the rest can use the fact that the United States retains weapons as a stick to diplomatically beat the US with. Every country in the world is going to be affected by this war -- indirectly, if not directly -- and I believe as well that there's going to be far greater pressure to ban them than there was to eliminate gas weapons after WWI.

As to the second element of your comment -- that of post-war life, it's an interesting conundrum. In Europe, I don't think any pre-war governments outside of Ireland, Switzerland, and perhaps Sweden will remain intact. Authoritarian governments on both sides of the political spectrum will dominate. In the United States, there's going to be several years of martial law an authoritarian government. It's not going to be life as normal at all.

Socially, you're going to see a massive development of nihilist thought, similar in a lot of ways to the 1980s -- albeit far stronger. Imagine heavy-metal fatalist Beatles singing about the end of the world, for instance. But I think that will only happen in places where damage is comparatively light and where you have mass media -- South America, the USA, Australia, India, and so forth. In heavily-damaged areas like Europe, Canada, and north Asia, you're going to have simple survivalist thought. There's no room for luxuries like entertainment when you're trying to find enough to eat.

In countries with controlled media like China and the United States under President Johnson, I can imagine state-subsidized "happy music" and movies with happy endings -- that sort of thing.

 

[Amerigo Vespucci]

I think you ment Eufaula, Alabama.
What do you have against small towns in Alabama? 1.1mt!

That I did. I'll fix that spelling. How I chose it is somewhat interesting. I figured that Jacksonville would be targeted with the sole long-range missile available, as it was a pretty big base providing support for the invasion.

With the gyroscopes not properly spun up, the missile is going to oscillate in a roughly circular pattern, yawing and pitching as it heads northeast from the launch site. If you draw a spiral from Jacksonville westward, the line will pass through Eufaula. I basically closed my eyes, drew a spiral westward, and the impact point was precisely in the middle of the reservoir.

 

[Darkest]

Amerigo, since you're on right now, what about North Korea? I'm interested in that part of the world.

 

[Amerigo Vespucci]

Amerigo, since you're on right now, what about North Korea? I'm interested in that part of the world.

Whatever benefits China the most, or whatever China thinks will benefit it the most. In the years immediately following the war, they're going to be calling the shots in the Koreas, particularly considering that South Korea's not really in a position to argue. If China acquiesces to a conquest, it'll happen -- no matter how strong a united Korea gets, it won't be able to challenge China. At least, that's what my position would be.

Hendryk, what do you think?

 

[Arachnid]

Re: the UK after Atlee won in '45, and moved the political spectrum massively left, they dumped him for the Tories as soon as the changed their tune in '51, they Conservative party was seen up until the ERM crisis in '92 as the 'Natural Party of Government'. Despite agreeing with Socialist policies whenever the Tories have beem vaguely electable they have won, I mean Labour didn't win 2 elections in a succesion (*) till Blair came along! Not even a nuclear war could change that.

IMHO immediate post war National/Military/Whatever's left Government, until '65/'66 depending on how the recovery is going; then election of a Socialist, Socially Conservative, Authoritarian government. In other words the Tories, not least because while Labour's heartlands the Industrial Northern cities and London have been roasted, rural Cornwall will be fine.

Scottish independance is unlikely, not only was Independance not really an issue for anyone in '62. The immediate post war government would probably be based in Wales and Soctland as they would have come out best. The Soviets would have ended Englands dominace over the British Isles, a more equal, and more devolved Union would probably survive.

When/if would '79 and the New Right happen difficult to say. One of the main reasons why Thatcher triumped was that everyone was heartily sick of the unions, it is hard to image a post-nuclear holocaust government being very understanding with regards to strikes, treason springs to mind. A backlash in the late 70's as things slowly return to normal is likely meaning a backlash to that over correction will probably take another 10-15 years and be less severe than the '79 swing, so despite a nuclear holocaust it is possible to image a government with a similar policy position to New Labour taking power in the '90's, though from a Callaghan anaolgue rather than a Thatcher anaolgue.


* Sort of Atlee won the '50 election but his majority was so tiny he only lasted till '51 when he did lose.