Stanley Baldwin's Successful Political Gamble: A TL from 1923

pipisme

Arthur Henderson appointed Stafford Cripps as Solicitor-General. Cripps was 39 years old and reputed to be the richest barrister in Britain. He was the son of Charles Cripps, Lord Parmoor, the Lord President of the Council. He was not a member of the Labour Party or a member of parliament. So he joined the party and was nominated as Labour candidate for Leeds South-East in the by-election caused by the appointment of Sir Henry Slesser as Lord Chancellor. He was also given a knighthood as was customary for Law Officers. The result of the by-election on 26 September 1928 was as follows [October 1925 general election]:
Sir Stafford Cripps [Labour]: 48.4% [64.1%]
William Whiteley [Liberal]: 29.7% [35.9%]
John Spurr [Conservative]: 21.9% [n/a]
--------------------------------
Labour majority: 18.7% [28.2%]
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There was a swing of 4.75% from Labour to Liberal.

On the same day there was a by-election in Cheltenham caused by the death of James Agg-Gardner on 9 August. The result of that election was as follows:
Sir Walter Preston [Conservative]: 54.8% [50.6%]
Sir John Brunner [Liberal]: 36.8% [49.4%]
Labour candidate: 8.4% [n/a]
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Conservative majority: 18.0% [1.2%]
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The swing from Liberal to Conservative was 8.4%.

Preston had been MP for Stepney Mile End from 1918 to 1922, and Brunner represented Southport from 1923 to 1925.

In the two by-elections on 7 February 1929, the Conservatives held Battersea South with their majority over Labour increased from 1.2% to 14.6%; while James Chuter Ede kept Bishop Auckland for Labour. But his majority over Liberal fell from 37.7% to 24.7%.

Stephen Ince, the Secretary of State for War and MP for Ince, died on 16 March 1929. Henderson appointed Josiah Wedgwood, the Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster in his place. He promoted Lord Arnold, the Under-Secretary of State at the Colonial Office to the Duchy of Lancaster, and appointed George Hall as Colonial Under-Secretary.
 
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pipisme

The Conservatives won the Liverpool East Toxteth by-election on 19 March 1929, and also the Bath, and Holland-with-Boston by-elections on 21 March. In East Toxteth the Liberals and Labour switched second and third place with the Liberals taking second place. In Bath the Liberals kept second place, while in Holland-with-Boston Labour stayed in second place. The by-election in Ince caused by the death of Stephen Walsh took place on 25 April 1929. It was won by Gordon Macdonald for Labour in a straight fight with the Tories. But the Labour majority fell from 54.0% in the 1925 general election to 38.2% in the by-election.
 

pipisme

Labour won the Mansfield by-election on 25 April 1929 caused by the death of Frank Varley on 17 March. But their majority over Conservative was 14.7% in a four cornered contest with Liberal and Communist candidates, compared to 32.0% in the 1925 general election in a straight fight with the Tories. In the Aylesbury by-election on 30 May, caused by the death of Alan Hughes Burgoyne on 26 April, the Conservative majority over Liberal increased 1.8% to 12.5%. The Tories easily won the Thirsk and Malton by-election on 18 June 1929 caused by the death of Edmund Turton on 8 May 1929. Their majority over Liberal in a straight fight was 20.8%, up from 13.0% in the 1925 general election.

Unemployment in Britain still remained high. In June 1929 it was 1,070,000, the lowest for that year. Arthur Henderson had appointed the Lord Privy Seal, Thomas Johnston, to be responsible for government policy on reducing unemployment. In this TL the Wall Street Crash still happened on 24 and 29 October 1929 as in OTL.
 

pipisme

The Prime Minister, Arthur Henderson, appointed the Indian Statutory Commission in January 1930 to investigate the working of the India Act 1919, and to consider the desirability of extending or restricting responsible government in India. Henderson named the Liberal Peer, Lord Islington [John Dickson-Poynder]. [1] Including Lord Islington the Commission had seven members. Two Conservative MPs and one Conservative Peer, three Labour MPs, one Liberal MP and one Liberal Peer.

[1] John Dickson-Poynder was born in 1866. He was Liberal MP for Chippenham from 1892 to 1910, when he was created Lord Islington, Governor of New Zealand from June 1910 to December 1912, Under-Secretary of State for the Colonies August 1914 to May 1915, Under-Secretary of State for India May 1915 to January 1919.
 
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Azule

Azule

Great TL, but I have to ask about one thing: How would the Representation of The People Act affect by-elections, especially in STV constituencies? I ask because the logistics of, for instance a one seat election for the whole of Leicester would surely pose a slight challenge (i.e. be prohibitively expensive) to even the three major parties, let alone the minor parties that will surely come to exist over the next 100 years. Indeed, in NI the outgoing MLA has to make a list of potential successors and in Australia they just recount the ballots of the general election to simulate a hypothetical n+1th seat winner who will replace them. Also, it would seem like a bit of a scandal waiting to happen if one less-populated part of the country gets to express its opinion mid-term while the rest has to wait for up to five years.

On the topic of NI/ROI, how's that coming along (outside of fire, that is)?
 

pipisme

Mach1013 said:
Great TL, but I have to ask about one thing: How would the Representation of The People Act affect by-elections, especially in STV constituencies? I ask because the logistics of, for instance a one seat election for the whole of Leicester would surely pose a slight challenge (i.e. be prohibitively expensive) to even the three major parties, let alone the minor parties that will surely come to exist over the next 100 years. Indeed, in NI the outgoing MLA has to make a list of potential successors and in Australia they just recount the ballots of the general election to simulate a hypothetical n+1th seat winner who will replace them. Also, it would seem like a bit of a scandal waiting to happen if one less-populated part of the country gets to express its opinion mid-term while the rest has to wait for up to five years.

On the topic of NI/ROI, how's that coming along (outside of fire, that is)?
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I'm glad you like this TL. In single member constituencies by-elections would be by the alternative vote, as for general elections. In STV constituencies by-elections would be also be by the alternative vote. I don't think they would be prohibitively expensive, at least for the three major parties, and they are not concerned about minor parties. In by-elections the parties can concentrate their resources on one election and be helped financially by other constituencies. Also I think by-elections are less expensive than general elections. In the Republic of Ireland by-elections to Dail Eireann are by STV.

I have not got anything in mind for Northern Ireland. The Government of Northern Ireland Act abolished the Northern Ireland parliament and executive and increased the number of Northern Ireland MPs at Westminster from 12 to 16. I will be posting updates on events in the Irish Free State.
 
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pipisme

The result of the general election in the Irish Free State on 9 June 1927 was as follows [1923 general election]:
Cumann na nGaedhael (CNG): 68 [63]
Fianna Fail: 43 [n/a]
Labour Party: 26 [15]
Farmers' Party: 9 [12]
National Party League: 11 [n/a]
Sinn Fein: 4 [44]
[Business Men's Party: 2]
[Cork Progressive Association: 2
[Independents: 13]
---------------
Total: 161 [153]
---------------
William Cosgrave remained in office as President of the Executive Council at the head of a minority CNG government.
 

pipisme

In this TL the Irish general election in September 1927 did not take place because there is not a vote of no confidence in the Cumann na nGaedhael government. The next general election was in 1931 or 1932.

In the UK, the result of the Kilmarnock by-election on 27 November 1929, caused by the death of Robert Climie [Labour] on 3 October 1928, was as follows [October 1925 general election]:
Craigie Aitchison [Labour]: 38.9% [48.7%]
Conservative candidate: 32.7% [24.2%]
Liberal candidate: 23.9% [27.1%]
------------------------------
Labour majority: 6.2% [21.6%]
------------------------------
The swing from Labour to Conservative was 9.15%. In OTL Aitchison was elected in the Kilmarnock by-election. [1]

Barnet Kenyon the Liberal MP for Chesterfield died on 2 February 1930. The result of the subsequent by-election on 27 March 1930 was as follows:
George Benson [Labour]: 39,2% [31.4%]
Roger Conant [Conservative]: 34.5% [22.7%]
George Elliott Dodds [Liberal]: 26.3% [45.9%]
---------------------------------------------
Labour majority: 4.7% [Liberal majority: 14.5%]
---------------------------------------------
Labour gain from Liberal. In OTL Benson was elected in the general election of 1929. [2]

[1] Here is his entry on Wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Craigie_Aitchison,_Lord_Aitchison

[2] Here is his Wikipedia entry: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Benson_(politician)
 

pipisme

The Prime Minister, Arthur Henderson, announced in the House of Commons on 8 April 1930 that a general election would be held on Wednesday 14 May. Parliament would be dissolved on 17 April and nominations would close on 4 May. Henderson's announcement was expected as it was thought that he would call a general election for May or June.
 

pipisme

Unemployment was a major issue in the general election. By April 1930 it was 1,732,000. In the last week of April the political parties published their manifestos in which they put forward proposals for reducing unemployment. The Conservative policy was tariffs to safeguard industry and imperial preference whereby there would be a tariff wall around the British Empire. The Tories promised that they would impose tariffs on food.

The Labour manifesto defended the government's record and promised a programme of public works to reduce unemployment. The Liberal manifesto advocated public works financed by government. John Maynard Keynes was an adviser to the Liberal Party and his ideas were in their manifesto.

Sir Oswald Mosley was a Labour candidate in the new four seat Birmingham Central constituency. On 28 April he published his manifesto. This proposed high tariffs to protect British industry, nationalisation of key industries and public works. [1] Austen Chamberlain was a Conservative candidate in Birmingham Central.

[1] As he proposed in his Memorandum in OTL.
 

pipisme

There were 188 MPs elected by single transferable vote in multi-member constituencies which were previously single member seats, except of the City of London which was a two member seat. Cabinet ministers standing for re-election in the new constituencies were:
John Clynes, Chancellor of the Exchequer: Manchester North
John Wheatley, Home Secretary: Glasgow North-East
William Graham, Minister of Health: Edinburgh.

Prominent Conservative MP standing in the new constituencies were:
Austen Chamberlain: Birmingham Central
Neville Chamberlain and Leo Amery: Birmingham South
Sir Samuel Hoare: Kensington and Chelsea
Sir Douglas Hogg: Marylebone and Paddington.

For the Liberals the party leader, Sir Donald Maclean, was contesting Cardiff.
 
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pipisme

steamboy said:
What about the situation in Europe? Hitler and friends are now making noises afer all.
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So far much the same as in OTL. In the German federal election on 14 September 1930 the Nazis increased their number of seats in the Reichstag from 12 to 107 and became the second largest party, as in OTL.
 

pipisme

When nominations closed on 4 May 1930 for the UK general election there were 565 Conservative candidates, 547 Labour and Liberal candidates. Jennie Lee was selected as the Labour candidate for Ayrshire North and Bute. [1] In the October 1925 general election the Conservatives had a majority of 12.4% over Labour in a straight fight. In the May 1930 general election there would again be a two party contest between Conservative and Labour.

[1] In OTL she was elected as Labour MP for Lanarkshire North in a by-election on 29 March 1929 caused by the death of the sitting Conservative MP. In this TL Labour won the constituency in the 1925 general election, so the by-election was butterflied away,
 
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pipisme

In the morning of Saturday 10 May 1930, the Home Secretary, John Wheatley, collapsed at his home in Glasgow with a cerebral haemorrage. That afternoon he lost consciousness. He died two days later in the morning of Monday 12 May. His body lay in an upstairs room in his house where hundreds of people paid a final tribute. As his funeral cortege made its way to Dalbeth cemetery, thoudands of men and women lined the streets. The parish priest of St. Joseph's Catholic Church conducted a simple graveside internment ceremony. Wheatley's friends, David Kirkwood, James Maxton and Rev. Campbell Stephen were at his funeral, together with the Right Reverend Dr. John White, the Moderator of the General Assembly of the Church of Scotland. [1]

Wheatley died two days before polling day, but because it was too late for a Labour candidate to be nominated in his place in the three-member constituency of Glasgow North-East.

[1] This was as in OTL [except that Wheatley was not a government minister] and is taken from The Life of John Wheatley by John Hannan, Nottingham: Spokesman, 1988.
 
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pipisme

The number of MPs for each party, and independents, elected in the general election on 14 May 1930 was as follows [October 1925 general election]:
Conservative: 314 [262]
Labour: 169 [245]
Liberal: 130 [105]
Independents: 4 [1]
Socialist Prohibition Party: 1 [1]
[Irish Nationalist:3]
---------------------------
Total: 618 [615]
--------------------------
The total number of seats was increased by three because there were four new seats in Northern Ireland, but the City of London lost one of its two seats and was merged with the Westminster Abbey and Westminster St. Georges constituency to form the three-member Cities of London and Westminster constituency.

The above figures include the result for the three-member Glasgow North-East constituency where polling was delayed for two weeks to 28 May because of the death of John Wheatley on 12 May. Two Labour MPs and one Conservative were elected. John McGovern was the Labour replacement for Wheatley.

The percentage votes for each party and for independents were as follows:
Conservative: 41.6 [37.5]
Labour: 30.7 [36.2]
Liberal: 27.3 [25.4]
Independents and others: 1.4 [0.9]
---------------------
Total: 100.0 [100.0]
---------------------
 

pipisme

Thomas1195 said:
A Tory majority?

Well, if either Labour or Liberal manages to field a strong and talented leader by 1935, they would make the Tories suffer dearly by attacking their austerity policies during the Depression.
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Because the Speaker is a Labour member [Robert Young] there is an overall Tory majority of fifteen.
 

pipisme

The only cabinet minister defeated was the Minister of Agriculture and Fisheries, Noel Buxton, in Norfolk North. Susan Lawrence, the Parliamentary Secretary to the Ministry of Health, was defeated in East Ham North.

The Liberal Party benefited from STV in the cities. They won 24 seats as follows: one in Bradford, two in Bristol, one in Cardiff, one in Edinburgh, one in Hull, one in Leicester, one in Liverpool, eight in London, three in Manchester, one in Newcastle-upon-Tyne, one in Nottingham, one in Plymouth, one in Stoke-on-Trent and one in Wolverhampton. They also gained from the alternative vote, by getting second preference votes from Conservative and Labour voters. All their leading MPs were re-elected, except for Walter Layton who was defeated in London University by a Conservative supported Independent.
 

pipisme

In the general election Winston Churchill was elected Conservative MP for Oldham East. He had been MP for the two-member Oldham constituency. That was split into East and West and he was the candidate for the more Conservative East division. As in the OTL 1929 general election Aneurin Bevan, Richard Austen Butler and Megan Lloyd George all entered parliament for the first time, being elected Labour MP for Ebbw Vale, Conservative MP for Saffron Walden and Liberal MP for Anglesey. But Jennie Lee was defeated in Ayrshire North and Bute, where Aylmer Hunter-Weston, the sitting Conservative MP was re-elected. John McGovern was elected as one of the Labour members for Glasgow North-East, together with another Labour and a Conservative, in the election which was postponed because if the death of John Wheatley.

Here is the cabinet which Stanley Baldwin appointed on 19 and 20 May 1930:
Prime Minister and First Lord of the Treasury: Stanley Baldwin
Lord Chancellor: Quintin Hogg, who elevated to the peerage as Viscount Hailsham
Lord President of the Council: Marquess of Salisbury
Lord Privy Seal: Viscount Peel
Chancellor of the Exchequer: Neville Chamberlain
Foreign Secretary: Austen Chamberlain
Home Secretary: Winston Churchill
First Lord of the Admiralty: Sir Bolton Eyres-Monsell
Minister of Agriculture and Fisheries: Walter Guiness
Secretary of State for Air: Marquess of Londonderry
Colonial and Dominions Secretary: Leopold Amery
President of the Board of Education: Lord Edward Percy [1]
Minister of Health: Walter Elliot
Secretary of State for India: Sir Samuel Hoare
Minister of Labour: Sir Henry Betterton
Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster: Viscount Cecil
Secretary of State for Scotland: Sir John Gilmour
President of the Board of Trade: Sir Philip Cunliffe-Lister
Secretary of State for War: William Ormsby-Gore
First Commissioner of Works: Earl Winterton [1].

Among the ministers outside the cabinet were:
Attorney-General: Sir Thomas Inskip
Solicitor-General: Sir Frank Merriman
Postmaster-General: Sir William Mitchell-Thomson
Minister of Transport: John Moore-Brabazon
Financial Secretary to the Treasury: Godfrey Locker-Lampson.

[1] Percy and Winterton were MPs.
 
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