Stanley Baldwin's Successful Political Gamble: A TL from 1923

[pipisme]

Please can you do a rapid overview of how this changes the political decisions? for example how does the Irish situation develop, does UK return to the gold standard in 25? Thanks in advance

As regards Ireland with the Irish Boundary Commission was appointed in 1924 as in OTL. See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irish_Boundary_Commission. I haven't decided what happens in this TL in respect of its report.

I don't know yet if the UK returns to the Gold Standard in 1925. Neville Chamberlain is Chancellor of the Exchequer in this TL, not Winston Churchill.

 

[Deleted member 94680]

@pipisme I know you’ve said the Tories do better, but why? What’s different here that results in a better result for them in the GE?

 

[pipisme]

@pipisme I know you’ve said the Tories do better, but why? What’s different here that results in a better result for them in the GE?

The turnout was higher in the 1923 general election because Tory voters who abstained in OTL voted Tory in this TL. Therefore the Tories won more seats. The increase in turnout was bigger in marginal seats.

 

[Deleted member 94680]

The turnout was higher in the 1923 general election because Tory voters who abstained in OTL voted Tory in this TL. Therefore the Tories won more seats. The increase in turnout was bigger in marginal seats.

Ah, ok. Was just wondering if I’d missed something

 

[pipisme]

When Bonar Law became prime minister in November 1922, Austen Chamberlain stayed aloof from his government as he did from Baldwin's government when the latter became prime minister the following May. However after the Conservative victory in the December 1923 general election, Baldwin appointed Chamberlain foreign secretary, in place of Marquis Curzon who received the consolation post of lord president of the council.

 

[pipisme]

The Republican National Convention was held in Cleveland from 10 to 12 June 1924. President Calvin Coolidge was nominated for president and White House Budget Director, Charles Dawes, for vice-president. [1] At the Democratic National Convention held in New York City from 24 June to 9 July, Alfred Smith was chosen for as candidate on the 95th ballot. The convention voted for the Governor of Nebraska, Charles W. Bryan as vice-presidential candidate, as in OTL. The Platform Committee report censured the Klu Klux Klan by name [2]

Because the Democrats had nominated Smith, there was no Progressive candidate for president. The previous summer, Robert La Follette had told reporters that there would be no need for a third party unless both parties nominated reactionaries. [3] He didn't regard Smith as a reactionary.

[1] This was as in OTL.

[2] This was not in OTL.

[3] See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1924. See section headed Progressive party nomination.

 

[pipisme]

Al Smith's Catholicism was a major issue in the election campaign. Protestant ministers warned that he would take orders from the Pope and many voters believed that the Catholic Church was hostile to American values of freedom and democracy. Smith appealed to people to reject anti-Catholic bigotry. He had the support of the Farmer-Labor Party and several trade unions.

Coolidge won the election, but not by a landslide. He received 319 electoral votes to 212 for Smith. The following states voted for Smith/Bryan:
Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, Georgia, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New York, North Carolina, North Dakota, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Texas, Virginia, Wisconsin.

 

[ShortsBelfast]

As regards Ireland with the Irish Boundary Commission was appointed in 1924 as in OTL. See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irish_Boundary_Commission. I haven't decided what happens in this TL in respect of its report.

I don't know yet if the UK returns to the Gold Standard in 1925. Neville Chamberlain is Chancellor of the Exchequer in this TL, not Winston Churchill.

Neville Chamberlain understood how the economy worked a lot better than Churchill so he probably won't short term. He probably won't be as visionary as McKenna so won't rule it out altogether but likely to come to the same view as Walter Runciman that the time is not yet ripe. Which should have significant consequences for the British economy

 

[pipisme]

The following states voted for Coolidge/Dawes in the US presidential election: California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Maine, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, Tennessee, Utah, Vermont, Washington, West Virginia, Wyoming.

The percentage votes for each candidate were as follows:
Coolidge/Dawes: 52.7%
Smith/Bryan: 46.5%
Others: 0.8%
-------------
Total: 100.00
-------------

The Republicans made gains in the congressional elections. The composition of the House of Representatives and the Senate after the election was as follows [after 1922 elections]
House of Representatives:
Republican Party: 236 [225]
Democratic Party: 194 [207]
Farmer-Labor Party: 3 [2]
Progressive: 1 [-]
Socialist Party: 1 [1]
-------------------------
Total: 435 [435]
------------------------
Senate:
Republican Party: 52 [51]
Democratic Party: 42 [43]
Farmer-Labor Party: 2 [2]
----------------------
Total: 96 [96]
--------------------

 

[pipisme]

Stanley Baldwin mostly left foreign policy to the foreign secretary, Austen Chamberlain. The main issue in foreign policy was German reparations crisis and the occupation by French and Belgian troops of the Ruhr. In April 1924 the Dawes Plan was published. [1]

[1] See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dawes_Plan

 

[clem attlee]

This is very interesting. There'll be a new election soon in which Labour will improve rather more than in OTL 1923, I'd guess. By keeping Labour out of power when Campbell is prosecuted, you might butterfly the infamous Zinoviev Letter. A narrow Tory victory in '23 could make the UK more progressive in the short to medium term. I'm curious how the Libs will do in the next election.

So, you now have three TLs running: one Tory, one Liberal and one left. I admire your stamina.

 

[pipisme]

The foreign policy of Baldwin's government in 1924 was much the same as that of Ramsay MacDonald's government of January to October 1924. At an international conference in London in July and August 1924 a settlement was reached on the withdrawal of French troops from the Ruhr, as in OTL.

Imperial policy was different. Baldwin led the British delegation at the Imperial Conference in Ottawa in August and September 1924, but Neville Chamberlain did much of the detailed work. The British government hoped to institute a system of imperial preference, but the dominion governments put their national interests ahead of schemes of imperial economic unity. All that was achieved was a declaration of intent that reduction or removal of empire trade barriers would increase trade and commended the agreements achieved as steps in the right direction. [1]

The London University by-election on 2 October 1924 caused by the death of Sidney Russell-Wells [Conservative] on 14 July 1924 was won by Walter Layton [Liberal].

[1] This was as at the Ottawa Conference in July and August 1932 and is taken from the entry for Neville Chamberlain in the Oxford Dictionary of National Biography.

 

[pipisme]

I have just noticed that I gave the figures for the London University by-election in post #16 on page one.above.

The Liberals gained Sevenoaks from the Tories in the by-election on 27 February 1925 caused by the death of Sir Thomas Jewell Bennett on 16 January. The percentage votes for each candidate were as follows [1923 general election] ;

Major Samuel Ainslie Williams [Liberal] : 51.3 [49.6]
Herbert Walter Styles [Conservative]: 48.7 [50.4]
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Liberal majority: 2.6% [Conservative majority: 0.8%]
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
There was a swing of 1.7% from Conservative to Liberal.

 

[pipisme]

The result of the election by Labour MPs to the shadow cabinet in February 1925 were as follows [ranking in January 1924 election]:
1. Thomas Johnston [2]
2. Robert Smillie [7]
3. Philip Snowden [1]
4. George Lansbury [3]
5. James Thomas [4]
6. John Wheatley [6]
7. Arthur Henderson [not eligible for election as not an MP]
8. James Maxton [10]
9. Charles Trevelyan [9]
10. William Graham [not elected]
11. Emmanuel Shinwell [8]
12. Josiah Wedgwood [not elected].

Ramsay MacDonald and James Clynes were re-elected unopposed as leader and deputy leader respectively.

In May 1925, Baldwin appointed Sir John Baird as Governor-General of Australia. Baird was the Conservative MP for Ayr Burghs so there was a by-election in that constituency. The result of the by-election on 12 June 1925 was as follows [1923 general election]:
Lt. Col. Thomas Moore [Conservative]:39.6% [44.4%]
Peter Campbell Stephen [Labour]: 38.3% [30.4%]
Sir Donald Maclean [Liberal]: 22.1% [25.2"%]
------------------------------------
Conservative majority: 1.3% [14.0%]
-----------------------------------
The swing from Conservative to Labour was 6.35%. The turnout was 71.3% [72.8%].

Five days later on 17 June the Eastbourne by-election was held. This was caused by the appointment of Sir Geoffrey Lloyd [Conservative] as British High Commissioner in Egypt and Sudan. The result of the by-election was as follows [1923 general election]:
Harcourt Johnstone [Liberal]: 41.8% [38.2%]
Admiral Sir William Reginald Hall [Conservative]: 40.7% [43.5%]
Lt. Col. Thomas Williams [Labour]: 17.5% [18.3%]
--------------------------------------------------
Liberal majority: 1.1% [Conservative majority: 5.5%]
--------------------------------------------------
The swing from Conservative to Liberal was 3.3%. The turnout was 68.1% [71.0%].

A week later on 24 June there was a by-election in Oldham caused by the appointment of Sir Edward Grigg [Liberal] as Governor of Kenya. Oldham was a two-member constituency. The result of that election was as follows [1923 general election]:
Winston Churchill [Liberal]: 42.3% [22.5% and 19.5%]
James Wilson [Labour]: 40.7% [22.1%]
Duff Cooper [Conservative]: 17.0% [19.0% and 16.9%]
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Liberal majority: 1.6% [0.4% over Labour and 3.5% over Conservative
-------------------------------------------------------------------
The turnout was 68.4% [64.1%].

Churchill was back in the House of Commons as a member for the constituency he represented from 1900 to 1905.

 

[pipisme]

In his budget on 28 April 1925, Neville Chamberlain announced the return of the pound sterling to the Gold Standard at its pre Great War parity of $4.86 to £1.

In OTL at the end of March 1925 Winston Churchill told Austen Chamberlain, Neville Chamberlain and Stanley Baldwin, three former Chancellors of the Exchequer in the cabinet, about his budget proposals. 'There is no evidence that (Neville Chamberlain) was disquieted by the decision to return to the Gold Standard....a step approved by almost all the leading financial authorities of the day. It would probably have been taken by whatever government was in power.'

The Forest of Dean by-election on 14 July 1925 caused by the death of James Wignall [Labour] was won by Labour. The percentage votes for each party were as follows [1923 general election]:
Albert Arthur Purcell [Labour]: 52.6 [58.9]
Michael Wentworth Beaumont: 30.0 [41.1]
W. H. West [Liberal]: 17.4 [N/A]
----------------------------
Labour majority: 22.6 [17.8]
---------------------------
The swing from Conservative to Labour was 2.4%. The turnout was 76.9% [67.1%]. [2]

On 31 July 1925 Baldwin announced that the government would pay a subsidy to the coal industry for nine months to keep wages at their current level. Also the appointment of a Royal Commission on the Coal Industry to be chaired by Sir Herbert Samuel. [3]

The Widows, Orphans and Old Age Contributory Pensions Act 1925 provided for a pension of 10 shillings a week for widows of insured persons with 5 shillings a week for the first child and 3 shillings a week for other children, and 7 shillings and six pence a week for orphans. Also 10 shillings a week for insured persons and their wives over the age of seventy. [4]


[1] Information and quotation in this paragraph taken from Neville Chamberlain: Volume One 1869-1929 by David Dilks, Cambridge University Press, 1984.

[2] The Forest of Dean by-election in OTL was on the same day and won by Labour but with a different Labour candidate and different votes for each candidate.

[3] This was as in OTL.

[4] This was as in OTL.

 

[pipisme]

William Greenwood, one of the two Conservative MPs for the two-member constituency of Stockport died on 19 August 1925. This was a marginal seat with the Liberals second and Labour third. The by-election was held on Thursday 17 September. After four recounts the returning officer announced the result to a packed Stockport Town Hall in the early hours of the following morning. The Labour candidate had won by a majority of seven votes over the Tory candidate. The percentage votes for each candidate were as follows [1923 general election]:
Arnold Ernest Townend [Labour]: 35.2 [16.7]
Thomas Eastham [Conservative]: 35.2 [23.7 and 21.3]
Henry Fildes [Liberal]:29.6 [20.5 and 17.8]
----------------------------------------------------------
Labour majority: 0.0% [Conservative majority 3.2%, 3.5%]
----------------------------------------------------------
The increase in the Labour vote was large because in the general election there was only one Labour candidate. If there had been two candidates the increase would have been considerably less. The turnout was 82.4% [73.8%].

Although the Tories had lost this was a good result for the governing party in a mid term by-election. In terms of vote a loss by seven votes is hardly any different to a win by seven votes. They attributed the Labour victory to Townend having been. the.Labour candidate in the general election and therefore better known in the constituency. Also the fall in the Liberal vote was good from the government's point of view.

The composition of the House of Commons was now as follows:
Conservative: 304
Labour: 174
Liberal: 131
Nationalist: 3
Socialist Prohibition Party: 1
Independent: 1
The Speaker: 1
----------
Total 630
----------
Not counting the Speaker, the government was in a minority of six votes.

On 18 September Baldwin, after consulting with his cabinet and Conservative Party officials, decided to call a general election. Historians have attributed his decision to the calculation that at best the Conservatives would win an overall majority, and at worse Labour would be the largest party in the House of Commons, and therefore therefore there would be a minority Labour government dependent on the Liberals which would collapse within a year. In the resulting general election the Tories would return to power. Also he did not want to wait for Tory MPs in marginal seats to die.

That evening an official announcement was made to the press that a general election would take place on Thursday 22 October 1925.

 

[pipisme]

After Parliament was dissolved on 24 September, the election campaign started in earnest. All the parties published election manifestos. The Conservative manifesto praised the achievements of the government. It pledged that there would not be any extension of tariffs. It promised that a Conservative government would reduce class sizes in schools, continue with slum clearance and help farmers. It was criticised for being bland and not having any big idea.

The Labour manifesto said that a Labour government would pass into law its Great Housing Charter. This would give generous financial assistance to local authorities and the building industry which will provide: Houses to let at low cost; a separate dwelling for every family; a continuous policy of slum clearance and an end to overcrowding. In education the manifesto promised new schools, an increase in the number of teachers, smaller classes, more free places in secondary schools and scholarships to universities.

Labour manifesto to be continued.

 

[pipisme]

Highlights from the Labour manifesto continued.

A Labour government will give assist farmers by loans to their co-operative enterprises. It will establish an Agricultural Wages Board and District Wages Committees by law.

While the only practicable way to reduce unemployment is by a constructive policy of National Development, the housing policy of a Labour government will reduce the number of unemployed in the building industry by tens of thousands.

A Labour government will bring the mining industry into public ownership with equitable treatment of all interests concerned.

To be continued.

 

[pipisme]

More highlights from the Labour manifesto.

The taxation of land values. The development of a national system of electricity generating stations. A Royal Commission into the Licensing Laws. The railways and canal system will be brought into public ownership. The prevention of excessive hours of works in the retail trade, in the mercantile marine and other trades excluded from the Washington Forty-Eight Hours Convention. Women will be given the vote at twenty-one on the same terms as men. [1]

Here are extracts from the Liberal manifesto.
The restoration of Free Trade and the removal of all tariffs. The taxation of land values. Reform of the leasehold system to enable leaseholders who are occupiers of dwelling houses to purchase the freehold at a fair price to their landlords. The building of new industrial towns. Unemployed workers should be used to build houses and effective measures must be taken to train young apprentices, or otherwise to increase building craftsmen. Reform of the system of land tenure which would combine the advantages of ownership and tenancy without their disadvantages. The state to acquire all mineral rights and to give assistance and direction in the building of super-power stations. A Liberal government would reduce the size of classes in elementary schools, reform rural education and improve teacher qualifications, extend provision for university education. The fair distribution of profits among all those engaged in industry - investor, managers and workers. The grave social problem of excessive consumption of alcoholic liquor must be dealt with on bold and democratic lines, in the light of experiments made at home and abroad. A Liberal government would re-establish economic and commercial relations with Russia. [2]

When nominations closed on 12 October 1925, there were 541 Conservative candidates, 516 Labour, 438 Liberal and 29 others, compared to 536, 427, 457 and 26 respectively in the 1923 general election.

[1] I have taken the extracts from the Labour manifesto in this post and my two previous posts from the manifesto for the 1924 general election in OTL. See http://labourmanifesto.com/1924/1924-labour-manifesto.shtml.

[2] Extracts from the Liberal manifesto are taken from the manifesto for the 1924 general election in OTL. See http://www.libdemmanifesto.com/1924/1924-liberal-manifesto.shtml.

 

[pipisme]

The British Broadcasting Company [BBC] allocated three broadcasts of twenty minutes each to each party leader. Asquith, Baldwin and Macdonald each made a twenty minute broadcast on the radio.

Polling day was 22 October 1925. Britain was under the influence of a deep Atlantic depression with strong south-westerly winds, and heavy rain in southern England. The hours of voting were 8am to 8pm. The results were broadcast on the BBC during a music programme. They were also shown on a large screen in Trafalgar Square. The Manchester Guardian had an hour by hour report of the results as they came in. [1] My account of the results will be based on that format.

[1] See http://www.theguardian.co.uk/media/shortcuts/2012/oct/28/when-first-live-blog-1923.