Spanish War not over by September 1939: strategic consequences?

[Hendryk]

Let us assume that, for whatever reason, the Nationalists haven't managed to decisively vanquish the Republicans by the time Germany invades Poland and WW2 begins. Let's say, for example, that the Battle of Teruel goes better for the Republicans, who don't exhaust their manpower and resources fighting it, so that the Nationalists are unable to proceed to the Aragon offensive on schedule (though any military POD experts on the Spanish War can think of may do as well).

All other things being equal, what would be the strategic consequences of the Spanish War still raging by the time Britain and France declare war on Germany? (Or would Germany delay the invasion of Poland to begin with?) It seems likely that the Republicans would seize the opportunity to declare war on Germany as well, in order to formally become co-belligerent of the Allies, and as such receive desperately-needed support. What would be the butterflies of such a development?

 

[Milarqui]

My ideas:
- For starters the German-Italian aid the Nationalist were getting would, not disappear, but dwindle some, as both countries would start to hoard resources for their attacks in Poland, France and North Africa.
- Considering that now the Republicans were supporting France and Britain in their fight against Fascism (nominally, at least), perhaps France wouldn't surrender so soon and Vichy France wouldn't be created: perhaps the French gov't would travel to Catalonia so that France stayed free, and from there sail to Northern Africa, where those forces that would have been serving Vichy in there instead helped in the fight against Italy, they might invade Libya in collaboration of Bernard Montgomery's 8th Army.
- The Lend-Lease Accord between USA and Britain would be expanded to African France and Republican Spain, with the latter being supplied from Malta and Argelia.
- Gibraltar is invaded by the Nationalists. This prompts Britain to declare war on National Spain.
- After the Fall of France (no Vichy France in here, the whole country would be under German occupation) Operation Barbarossa would be delayed a few months, maybe even a year, because Hitler would surely order an invasion of Republican Spain to help his ally Franco.
- Montgomery would have to work much more than in OTL, because his 8th Army would have to drive the Francoist army out of Morocco. Then, a new front could be opened starting from Gibraltar, making a Overlord-like operation but just crossing the Strait.
- Spain's pitiful prowess in their war against the Republic (we didn't exactly have a good army back then, and 4-5 years of continous war surely helps in the destruction of an army) makes Hitler divert resources from his war effort to help the Nationalists. Spain becomes something akin to Italy, sucking the resources of Germany. War would go easier for the Allies.
- After being invaded by Nazi Germany, Republican's Spain control is given to Franco. The Republic organizes a huge effort to transport as many troops as possible to French Algeria. These troops would then help in the liberation of Spain.
- By 1944, Spain would be in Allies hands. Overlord would happen in the same moment, but the "broad approach" tactic that was suggested in OTL is rejected in favour of a lightning attack to reach Paris. The Allies launch "Operation Roncesvalles", a three-pronged attack crossing the Pyrenees in the three points where a natural pass between Spain and France is placed: from the Basque Country/Navarre (aimed at Burdeos), Catalonia (towards Nice and Marseilles) and Aragon (directed to capture Toulouse).
- Sardinia and Corsica are invaded from the Balearic Islands.
- Soviets don't arrive to Vienna before the Allies do. This is because Roncesvalles obligues Hitler to send groups of the Wehrmacht to southern France, diminishing the number of soldiers in the Brenner Pass (I'm not sure if it's called like that) and allowing the Americans and British to arrive to the city.
- War in Europe might end before it does in OTL, because since Southern France has been liberated from Spain, the Army in Northern France and Italy doesn't have to send soldiers and tanks there.
- Germany wouldn't be divided in influence zones as it did in OTL, because, since Berlin fell into British-American hands, Stalin doesn't have the posibility to create the GDR.

 

[Hendryk]

By 1944, Spain would be in Allies hands.

This begs the question of what Spain's postwar government would be. Which figures in the Republican movement would be free enough from Communist influence to be to the Allies' taste?

Overlord would happen in the same moment, but the "broad approach" tactic that was suggested in OTL is rejected in favour of a lightning attack to reach Paris. The Allies launch "Operation Roncesvalles", a three-pronged attack crossing the Pyrenees in the three points where a natural pass between Spain and France is placed:

That would be Operation Roncevaux in modern French. I can see the hairsplitting between the French forces and the others to decide how to properly name it (and the eventual name being something completely different, like Operation Hannibal)

 

[Prem_Rack]

Just a nitpick, but Montgomery didn't command the 8th Army until 1942 (and him being the commander in Africa might as well be butterfilied), and the formation as such didn't exist till 1941.

 

[DuQuense]

Considering that now the Republicans were supporting France and Britain in their fight against Fascism (nominally, at least), perhaps France wouldn't surrender so soon and Vichy France wouldn't be created: perhaps the French Govt. would travel to Catalonia so that France stayed free, and from there sail to Northern Africa, where those forces that would have been serving Vichy in there instead helped in the fight against Italy, they might invade Libya in collaboration of Bernard Montgomery's 8th Army.

If the Spanish civil War is still going on in September 1939 and the British/French get involved -
?Would it still be ongoing in May 1940, when Germany invades France?

If France/England get involved with Spain, ?Would this lead to a earlier war with Italy?
A British/French Invasion of Italy in late 1939/early 1940 Changes a lot.
Or if Mussolini Pulls back, and therefore stays out in June 1940, whe have a major change.

 

[Deleted member 1487]

In this scenario would Hitler even approve of Barbarossa? He only let things progress in Russia when the Brits were driven from the continent and could be kept off. With so much of a leaky frontier against the Brits, he might be persueded to finish off the Brits before moving on to Russia. It seems more likely that a mediterrain strategy would be in order to crush France in exile and with Spain as a front and Gibralter taken, why not take Malta, and make Egypt axis? Me feels a timeline in order...

 

[Derek Jackson]

Does the continuation of the Spanish Civil War have any impact on the Nazi Soviet pact?

 

[Redem]

For a split second I thought it was the spanish-american war

 

[Milarqui]

By 1944, Spain would be in Allies hands.

This begs the question of what Spain's postwar government would be. Which figures in the Republican movement would be free enough from Communist influence to be to the Allies' taste?

Mmm. Manuel Azaña, who was the President of the Republic back then, was pretty free from Communist influence, and Casares Quiroga (Prime Minister before the SCW started) was much like him. He was a leftist, but he was more of a socialist than a Communist. The funny thing about the Spanish Civil War was that it was officially started as a war against Communism, but there wasn't any Communist influence on Spain until after the war started.

Overlord would happen in the same moment, but the "broad approach" tactic that was suggested in OTL is rejected in favour of a lightning attack to reach Paris. The Allies launch "Operation Roncesvalles", a three-pronged attack crossing the Pyrenees in the three points where a natural pass between Spain and France is placed:

That would be Operation Roncevaux in modern French. I can see the hairsplitting between the French forces and the others to decide how to properly name it (and the eventual name being something completely different, like Operation Hannibal)

Operation Hannibal wouldn't suit much to an invasion of southern France, it would be more like of an invasion of northern Italy.

 

[Milarqui]

Does the continuation of the Spanish Civil War have any impact on the Nazi Soviet pact?

I think that, since the URSS is helping the Republicans in Spain, they wouldn't accept the M-R Agreement. While they might not declare war on the Nazis, they would start gearing economy to war and sending military units towards the border between the URSS and Poland, ready to invade if Germany tries to attack them. Germany would invade all of Poland and it would be a matter of months before either of them brought up something and declare war on the other.

 

[Hendryk]

I think that, since the URSS is helping the Republicans in Spain, they wouldn't accept the M-R Agreement. While they might not declare war on the Nazis, they would start gearing economy to war and sending military units towards the border between the URSS and Poland, ready to invade if Germany tries to attack them. Germany would invade all of Poland and it would be a matter of months before either of them brought up something and declare war on the other.

We're talking major butterflies then.

 

[Karlos]

The M-R pact was signed after the end of the SPC. If it is still going on, the soviets and germans have a major issue here. There are two possibilities: One, there is no pact. That means that Hitler cannot attack Poland, in fear of a two front war, so the war is butterflied away until the next chance.
Other is that the soviets decide Spain is not worth it, sign anyway and stop sending aid to the republicans, considering Spain as part of German's cake.
The end of soviet aid would make much easier for non-communists sectors to gain hold of spanish governement, and easier for London and Paris to send aid. Then you have a Spain solid in the allied side.
Another grim possibility is that Spain declares war on the Axis and nobody does anything. French and british, confident of their power against Germany, do not care about Franco winning the war. German military aid does not reach the Peninsula anymore, but Mussolini, neutral in the war, can still send all the planes, tanks and men he wants. London, as in OTL, is happy to see Franco winning as long as he does not touch Gibraltar, and gives him diplomatic and economic support, while making secret contacts with Burgos governement just to make sure he stays out of the european war. Franco has all the time in the world to crush the Republic. Sad but quite realistic, IMO, seeing how things went in OTL.

 

[Condottiero]

I fully agree with Karlos. I do not see why Great Britain or even France would change their views from OTL. France would be unwilling to enter a war in their back and would try to reach an agreement with the one winning: Franco. Great Britain would try to make sure that Spain would not attack Gibraltar and become a haven for german naval units. Italy would probably be neutral in the beginning of the war as IOTL and would continue helping Franco. As for the SU they would try to get some more time and to calm Hitler by removing support to the Republic in exchange for acknowledgement and even help in their attack on Finland.

Moreover Spain would be in a worst shape so that neither Germany, nor anyone else would like to have them on their side.

 

[MUC]

With the Spanish Front still open the entire German plan for European domination resembles even more Napoleon's Wars.

The Army beaten in Russia, while Spain being raided by British and in constant disarray...

 

[Hendryk]

Other is that the soviets decide Spain is not worth it, sign anyway and stop sending aid to the republicans, considering Spain as part of German's cake.
The end of soviet aid would make much easier for non-communists sectors to gain hold of spanish governement, and easier for London and Paris to send aid. Then you have a Spain solid in the allied side.

The most plausible development IMHO, but though the Republican government is pro-Ally and can expect to receive substantial aid from France and Britain, in the short term it's still in a critical situation.

 

[Grimm Reaper]

There is also the question of the situation when WWII begins. If Franco's position is comparable to OTL in late 1938 or beyond the Allies certainly aren't going to waste resources on what is obviously the losing side. And if they do then the British are probably going to lose the entire Med starting with Gibralter.

 

[Karlos]

The thing is that the republican's situation was not that bad until the very end. The Battle of Ebro, when the governement made its biggest effort and had their best army, was in july 1938. They still had Catalonia and a lot of land in the middle-east of Spain, where the Ejército del Centro remained untouched until the very last day. Weapons and suppies remained at the wrong side of the french border while the republicans fought their last battles.
Even some good air support and weapons supply in time for the Ebro battle could have been decisive to turn the tide, if there had been the will to do so.