Spain Joins the Axis: What is its fate?

[CHKeeley]

A Spanish republic is set up that is firmly in the Soviet camp after the war.

I don’t see a way this would be possible unless somehow the Spanish maqui fighters can independently topple the Francoist government, which they tried in the Val d’Aran in ‘44 and were utterly routed. Allied troops will be needed to topple the Nationalist state and as we know from the post-war Allied track record, their occupation authorities will work overtime to prevent any alignment with the Soviet camp.

Allowing Spain ‘to go Red’ would be a massive security threat to NATO. As per the Comintern’s alignment first with the Popular Front strategy and later the Percentages Agreement, we know the USSR was quite flexible when it came to revolution in Spain in particular and not supporting ‘risky’ revolutions in general. Even in Spain did attempt to align with the Soviet camp, I don’t think the USSR would back this. Even if they wanted to, the immediate post-war situation would make it difficult for them to provide any material assistance.

 

[Lalli]

A Spanish republic is set up that is firmly in the Soviet camp after the war.

Americans, Brits and French never would allow pro-Soviet state emerging to Western Europe. And Stalin couldn't and probably even wouldn't want to do anything to help Spanish communists. So only way would be that communists manage oust Franco's regime but this seems implausible since they were already totally crushed.

And if Communists would try, there would be Second Spanish Civil War. And commies are going to lost this round.

 

[Santo Nombre]

If Spain really have a prosoviet social and political mass then maybe USSR and USA agree to keep Spain on the capitalist bloc and Greece on the communist one, so each bloc controls some straits (Gibraltar and Dardanelles).
Anyway I doubt Spain will became prosoviet after the war. I think it's more plausible a comeback of the CNT and the FAI, specially if many members participate on the guerrilla warfare.

 

[Wendell]

I don’t see a way this would be possible unless somehow the Spanish maqui fighters can independently topple the Francoist government, which they tried in the Val d’Aran in ‘44 and were utterly routed. Allied troops will be needed to topple the Nationalist state and as we know from the post-war Allied track record, their occupation authorities will work overtime to prevent any alignment with the Soviet camp.

Allowing Spain ‘to go Red’ would be a massive security threat to NATO. As per the Comintern’s alignment first with the Popular Front strategy and later the Percentages Agreement, we know the USSR was quite flexible when it came to revolution in Spain in particular and not supporting ‘risky’ revolutions in general. Even in Spain did attempt to align with the Soviet camp, I don’t think the USSR would back this. Even if they wanted to, the immediate post-war situation would make it difficult for them to provide any material assistance.

Americans, Brits and French never would allow pro-Soviet state emerging to Western Europe. And Stalin couldn't and probably even wouldn't want to do anything to help Spanish communists. So only way would be that communists manage oust Franco's regime but this seems implausible since they were already totally crushed.

And if Communists would try, there would be Second Spanish Civil War. And commies are going to lost this round.

Unlike most of Western Europe, the second Spanish republic had powerful bona fide left wing currents in and adjacent to positions of power who were further instrumental to the republican cause in the civil war. Many of these movements were opposed to the USSR, of course, but it's arguably those same currents most weakened by the war. Every other western European country had credible, democratic anticommunist movements and parties that were easily propped up by western intelligence late in and after the war. I'm not sure that this is true of Spain in the same period, and IIRC, Stalin had wanted to get the western allies on board with a campaign to liberate Spain after World War II, which seems odd if Spain ending up in the Western camp post-Franco was anything close to inevitable.

 

[ahmedali]

The accession of Spain might be possible if the 1936 coup had succeeded and thus we got rid of the civil war


Portugal will become an ally, but I think that the estado novo will collapse early due to the Nazi and Spanish invasion of Portugal, which will lead to the beheading of the government


The British will take over the Azores, Madeira and the Canary Islands


And they establish an allied regime headed by Don Juan, Duke of Barcelona


(The father of the former King of Spain, juan carlos I grandfather of philip vi and Franco's enemies and one of the relatives of George VI)


Eau Don Javier, Duke of Parma (Carlist pretender and uncle of Otto von Habsburg)


and Portugal headed by Durate Duke of Bragenza (Portuguese claimant to the throne)


(Basically they restore the monarchy in Spain and Portugal as they did with Greece and may lead to the survival of the Italian monarchy and the restoration of the German monarchy)


After the war, the French give the Spanish enclave inside France, Spain cedes Olivenza and the island of Bioko to Portugal, while France gains Spanish Morocco, Ceuta, Melilla and Equatorial Guinea


Franco is on trial in Nuremberg or flees to a South American exile with the Falangists and Spanish fascists


Spain and Portugal begin to develop as democratic constitutional monarchies and thrive economically because of the Marshall Plan


This is what I think will happen


Clichés like restoring the republic won't happen (Republicans are secret Bolsheviks)

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

From the point of view of Portugal? A total shit-storm, with Salazar cursing Franco's entire bloodline with eternal damnation, for forcing Portugal into said shit-storm. Portugal would try to remain neutral, similar to Switzerland, Sweden, etc., although I could see Salazar siding with the Allies AFTER successful landings in Spain made it relatively safe for him to do so. He would be too mindful of what happened in Greece. I can also see Salazar privately agreeing to an Allied occupation of the Azores, while publicly decrying it as treachery to placate the Germans.

Portuguse governments plan was to relocate to the Azores at the slightest sign of trouble. Well before such trouble reached Lisboa. Im unsure how complete those plans were in 1940, but the general idea was there.

 

[Lalli]

The accession of Spain might be possible if the 1936 coup had succeeded and thus we got rid of the civil war

Definitely in this scenario Spain would be much lesser screwed. But not sure would Spain still join.

Portugal will become an ally, but I think that the estado novo will collapse early due to the Nazi and Spanish invasion of Portugal, which will lead to the beheading of the government


The British will take over the Azores, Madeira and the Canary Islands

If Portugal is side of Allies, why Britain would take Azores and Madeira instead giving back?

And they establish an allied regime headed by Don Juan, Duke of Barcelona


(The father of the former King of Spain, juan carlos I grandfather of philip vi and Franco's enemies and one of the relatives of George VI)


Eau Don Javier, Duke of Parma (Carlist pretender and uncle of Otto von Habsburg)


and Portugal headed by Durate Duke of Bragenza (Portuguese claimant to the throne)


(Basically they restore the monarchy in Spain and Portugal as they did with Greece and may lead to the survival of the Italian monarchy and the restoration of the German monarchy)

Possible but not sure. Americans have too some saying for that. And since Salazar would be on side of Allies they hardly are going do with his regime anything.

After the war, the French give the Spanish enclave inside France, Spain cedes Olivenza and the island of Bioko to Portugal, while France gains Spanish Morocco, Ceuta, Melilla and Equatorial Guinea

Agree.

Franco is on trial in Nuremberg or flees to a South American exile with the Falangists and Spanish fascists

Why trial would be in Nuremburg instead Madrid? National leadership were sentenced in their own countries.

Spain and Portugal begin to develop as democratic constitutional monarchies and thrive economically because of the Marshall Plan

Possible. But I would expect ratherly Italian path.

 

[ahmedali]

Definitely in this scenario Spain would be much lesser screwed. But not sure would Spain still join.



If Portugal is side of Allies, why Britain would take Azores and Madeira instead giving back?



Possible but not sure. Americans have too some saying for that. And since Salazar would be on side of Allies they hardly are going do with his regime anything.



Agree.



Why trial would be in Nuremburg instead Madrid? National leadership were sentenced in their own countries.



Possible. But I would expect ratherly Italian path.

Salazar is true that he will be with the allies, but if he dies during the invasion, his regime collapses because it revolves around him


Metxas was not reinstated even with the reinstatement of the Greek monarchy, so also with Salazar



So the British turn to the royals (they were still powerful)


The course of Italy will not happen because the Spaniards are very royal and conservative, so they will remain the monarchy and so will the Portuguese



Italy may survive its monarchy if monrachy is restored in Spain, Portugal and Germany later


Churchill was preparing to seize the Canary if Franco allied himself with Hitler


The Azores as a government is like a free France

 

[TanTheManJam]

Salazar is true that he will be with the allies, but if he dies during the invasion, his regime collapses because it revolves around him


Metxas was not reinstated even with the reinstatement of the Greek monarchy, so also with Salazar



So the British turn to the royals (they were still powerful)


The course of Italy will not happen because the Spaniards are very royal and conservative, so they will remain the monarchy and so will the Portuguese



Italy may survive its monarchy if monrachy is restored in Spain, Portugal and Germany later


Churchill was preparing to seize the Canary if Franco allied himself with Hitler


The Azores as a government is like a free France

yeah I just didn't see why the brits would take another allies land, that would just make them turn to the axis and that would've been bad

 

[ahmedali]

yeah I just didn't see why the brits would take another allies land, that would just make them turn to the axis and that would've been bad

They will only do this to establish a free government

 

[pjmidd]

A Spain that joins in august 1940 makes British life very very difficult in the med

Gibraltar is neutralized near instantly by airpower and artillery and would fall in a siege pretty quickly ; although the British fleet would probably flatten the Spanish base at Cadiz on their way out

this near 100 percent forces Malta to be abandoned and ensures a more secure flow of supplies to axis troops in Libya; and gives the Italian navy much more operational flexibility since they only have enemies that can approach from one direction, and with the force h locked out of the med and most of the fleet recalled to home waters defense against seelion the RM could seek decisive battle against the Alexandria fleet and have some possibility of winning; especially since the British Air Force in Egypt in 1940 was basically nothing; all the good fighters wherent lost in France where committed to home defense

Strategic options for the British in the face of that would be very dark indeed until the Americans and Russians can be pulled in

Nope , it does not. Gibraltar falls, all that happens is that GB grabs the Canaries etc and closes the Med from there ( OTL it was the contingency plan ). All the major supply was coming via the Cape so the British Med fleet/forces in North Africa are unaffected. Having to supply Malta from just the East is a little trickier but Sicily is on the Western side so air attack from there is less of a problem.
Why you think the RN is pulling out of the Med is beyond me, Spain does not give the Axis anything that helps and a lot that hinders ( large amounts of fuel/food would need to be diverted, loss of neutral ports means goods no longer can slip through to the Axis etc ). The need to support Spain would cripple Italy ( anything the Germans supply Spain with would, mainly, be in OTL supplies the Italians got )

 

[cardcarrier]

Nope , it does not. Gibraltar falls, all that happens is that GB grabs the Canaries etc and closes the Med from there ( OTL it was the contingency plan ). All the major supply was coming via the Cape so the British Med fleet/forces in North Africa are unaffected. Having to supply Malta from just the East is a little trickier but Sicily is on the Western side so air attack from there is less of a problem.
Why you think the RN is pulling out of the Med is beyond me, Spain does not give the Axis anything that helps and a lot that hinders ( large amounts of fuel/food would need to be diverted, loss of neutral ports means goods no longer can slip through to the Axis etc ). The need to support Spain would cripple Italy ( anything the Germans supply Spain with would, mainly, be in OTL supplies the Italians got )

How do they just “take the canaries” in august 1940? In the face of the sea lion threat ? The Canary Islands would require at least as big a garrison as was used on crete… which was 4 divisions; The garrison on Gibraltar was less than 1. That’s not being landed 200-300 miles away on friendly territory like Crete-Egypt but 2000 miles away (distance from portsmouth to the Canary Islands)… it’s nearly as big a proposed undertaking as what the British did for operation torch in November 1942

like I know Churchill love love loved periphery attacks that where of questionable strategic value but that is pretty extreme even by his standards

the Gibraltar fleet would at least temporarily withdraw to home waters; maybe some of it would join the Alexandria fleet later but they wouldn’t run away from the Gibraltar siege into the Mediterranean, they would sail into the Atlantic when the axis would start staging cannons and aircraft to threaten the base

it’s not about Egypt only 1 major convoy (which took some losses) went all the way through the Mediterranean until operation torch was successful. It’s about 2 things, forcing Malta to be anbandoned and letting the Italian fleet + whatever submarines Germany might send concentrate exclusively on the eastern Mediterranean including putting squadron(s) in greek bases

 

[pjmidd]

How do they just “take the canaries” in august 1940? In the face of the sea lion threat ? The Canary Islands would require at least as big a garrison as was used on crete… which was 4 divisions; The garrison on Gibraltar was less than 1. That’s not being landed 200-300 miles away on friendly territory like Crete-Egypt but 2000 miles away (distance from portsmouth to the Canary Islands)… it’s nearly as big a proposed undertaking as what the British did for operation torch in November 1942

like I know Churchill love love loved periphery attacks that where of questionable strategic value but that is pretty extreme even by his standards

the Gibraltar fleet would at least temporarily withdraw to home waters; maybe some of it would join the Alexandria fleet later but they wouldn’t run away from the Gibraltar siege into the Mediterranean, they would sail into the Atlantic when the axis would start staging cannons and aircraft to threaten the base

it’s not about Egypt only 1 major convoy (which took some losses) went all the way through the Mediterranean until operation torch was successful. It’s about 2 things, forcing Malta to be anbandoned and letting the Italian fleet + whatever submarines Germany might send concentrate exclusively on the eastern Mediterranean including putting squadron(s) in greek bases

The Wehraboo is strong I see. I've just got back up off the floor but my sides are still hurting. Comparing Crete and the Canaries is , even by Wehraboo standards, a stretch and a half, the further comparison to Torch was fall off the chair time. The Axis have no realistic way of threating the Canaries so your garrison is massively overstated.
I'm even more in awe of the Gibraltar fleet, I assume you mean Force H , this would have left Gibraltar long before any siege and was not actually tasked purely with the Med in any case ( its hunt for the Bismarck was naturally all in the Atlantic for instance ). It would have just repositioned to the Canaries to do the same function.

I have to state again , its not my idea that the Canaries would be taken as a replacement for Gibraltar, its in the official war record as the planned counter response ( Operation Puma , later modified to be part of the much wider scope of Operation Pilgrim ).

 

[CHKeeley]

The Wehraboo is strong I see. I've just got back up off the floor but my sides are still hurting.

Even though I agree with your argument, this seems uncalled for and unnecessarily combative. @cardcarrier has not done anything “Wehraboo”, only disagreeing about the strategic significance of the loss of Gibraltar and in fairly mild terms.

 

[cardcarrier]

The Wehraboo is strong I see. I've just got back up off the floor but my sides are still hurting. Comparing Crete and the Canaries is , even by Wehraboo standards, a stretch and a half, the further comparison to Torch was fall off the chair time. The Axis have no realistic way of threating the Canaries so your garrison is massively overstated.
I'm even more in awe of the Gibraltar fleet, I assume you mean Force H , this would have left Gibraltar long before any siege and was not actually tasked purely with the Med in any case ( its hunt for the Bismarck was naturally all in the Atlantic for instance ). It would have just repositioned to the Canaries to do the same function.

I have to state again , its not my idea that the Canaries would be taken as a replacement for Gibraltar, its in the official war record as the planned counter response ( Operation Puma , later modified to be part of the much wider scope of Operation Pilgrim ).

over 500k people (including quite a number loyal to Franco) lived on the canaries how do you garrison them with less than 4 divisions unless you are going to deport and intern everyone; even then you would need 4 divisions to manage the deporting and interning before you could shrink the garrison. I used crete as an example because it had a similar (although much more friendly) sized population; British Greek Australian and New Zealand troops where 4 divisions. From positions potentially obtained in Spanish/French Morocco (part of Franco's demands included French Morocco) they certainly could threaten the canary islands, they would be a lot closer than any friendly British territory for resupply or provisioning replacement aircraft, the lodgment on Crete was defeated by 2 German divisions 1 Italian regiment and ~400 tactical aircraft fwiw with friendly bases at Alexandria and Mersah Matruh only 300 miles away

I am not aware of there being a fleet sized port in the canaries for the Gibraltar fleet (force H) to rebase itself on, Churchill loved his side shows, but I have to figure one of the adults in the war cabinet or Marshal Brooke would politely put that in the same pile as his plans to send battlecruisers into the baltic or renewed landings in Norway or any other of his schemes that were unwise, the British army couldn't spare 4 additional divisions from home defense at least until mid 1941 anyway when the invasion scare was well and truly over, and dumping them on a couple of rocks in the middle of the atlantic is hardly a good value for their use, plus having a half a million mouths to feed through the gauntlet of aircraft and submarines is hardly a strategic improvement of the British position; if he forces his will on everyone and takes the islands then he would be a fool, it wouldn't be the first or last time

 

[Crowbar Six]

How does Portugal go in this scenario?

If Franco tried a land grab he might well provoke the WAllies to go for a land invasion of Spain, the risk of U Boats deploying to Portugal and the Azores will complicate the battled of the Atlantic, with Gibraltar taken the only way to supply British forces in the Med and far east is via the Cape.

 

[Cryhavoc101]

How do they just “take the canaries” in august 1940? In the face of the sea lion threat ? The Canary Islands would require at least as big a garrison as was used on crete… which was 4 divisions; The garrison on Gibraltar was less than 1. That’s not being landed 200-300 miles away on friendly territory like Crete-Egypt but 2000 miles away (distance from portsmouth to the Canary Islands)… it’s nearly as big a proposed undertaking as what the British did for operation torch in November 1942

like I know Churchill love love loved periphery attacks that where of questionable strategic value but that is pretty extreme even by his standards

the Gibraltar fleet would at least temporarily withdraw to home waters; maybe some of it would join the Alexandria fleet later but they wouldn’t run away from the Gibraltar siege into the Mediterranean, they would sail into the Atlantic when the axis would start staging cannons and aircraft to threaten the base

it’s not about Egypt only 1 major convoy (which took some losses) went all the way through the Mediterranean until operation torch was successful. It’s about 2 things, forcing Malta to be anbandoned and letting the Italian fleet + whatever submarines Germany might send concentrate exclusively on the eastern Mediterranean including putting squadron(s) in greek bases

I imagine very similar to the way in which they took Iceland with maybe some additional unpleasantness

We do not actually have to guess as Operation Pilgrim was planned from late 1940 to "capture and hold, for our own use, the Island of Gran Canary with the Harbour at La Luz and aerodrome at Gando."

And the troops and assets required for this operation were largely kept in readiness for the rest of 1941.

This operation would use a force based around the 2nd Canadian Division and total 24000 men

La Luz in 1912 - looks like a fairly decent harbour to me!

And if the British could stand up Port T in the Indian Ocean at Adul Atoll as a fleet base in 1942 despite everything else that had gone on - I am quite sure that La Luz should present far less of a challenge.

Its very likely given the US Governments declaration on 18 April 1941 regarding the 26° West meridian sea frontier that like Iceland (Garrisoned by US Marines 16 June 1941) US troops might also be used to garrison key locations in the region

 

[cardcarrier]

The US basing itself on territory belonging to a belligerent spain within range of axis bombers prior to pearl harbor strikes me as... incredibly unlikely

The spanish claimed they had troops and cannons to defend the islands and systematically deployed more cannons to the islands as the war went on. 24,000 men is too small to control the island chain in the first place let alone if the axis would base themselves in Morocco and seriously threaten counter attacking a lodgment. Anything less than 4 divisions to defend the island chain (this all being pre barbarossa) would be completely insufficient and vulnerable to the same sort of counter attack that they experienced on crete or los with the unfortunate same results; especially since Grand Canary is well outside the ferry range of British fighters of the period, so they can only shipped in, in crates or flown off carriers the later of which doesn't bring fuel and munitions to the islands

More to the point of whether a successful attack and sustained presence is realistic... what is the actual value of holding the islands and trying up 4 divisions that could be used elsewhere? Axis possession of Gibraltar (even the canaries) does absolutely nothing to change the balance of things in the atlantic, all it does is block convoys to Malta from the West to free up the Italian fleet and airforce for more concentrated action in the eastern Mediterranean that's it, it doesn't magically give germany more subs/surface raiders or good maritime patrol aircraft or give Italian ships the range or mission to go contribute to the battle of the atlantic

If the germans wanted to waste troops and assets holding the canaries the British would be better off leaving them to rot like they did with the crete the channel islands or norway and focusing their efforts on actually defeating Germany in Europe where the war was going to be won

 

[CalBear]

The Wehraboo is strong I see. I've just got back up off the floor but my sides are still hurting. Comparing Crete and the Canaries is , even by Wehraboo standards, a stretch and a half, the further comparison to Torch was fall off the chair time. The Axis have no realistic way of threating the Canaries so your garrison is massively overstated.
I'm even more in awe of the Gibraltar fleet, I assume you mean Force H , this would have left Gibraltar long before any siege and was not actually tasked purely with the Med in any case ( its hunt for the Bismarck was naturally all in the Atlantic for instance ). It would have just repositioned to the Canaries to do the same function.

I have to state again , its not my idea that the Canaries would be taken as a replacement for Gibraltar, its in the official war record as the planned counter response ( Operation Puma , later modified to be part of the much wider scope of Operation Pilgrim ).

Wehraboo is one of those terms that can rarely be used without it being an insult.

I strongly recommend you cease and desist.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

Its very likely given the US Governments declaration on 18 April 1941 regarding the 26° West meridian sea frontier that like Iceland (Garrisoned by US Marines 16 June 1941) US troops might also be used to garrison key locations in the region

The USN did have a contingent plan for that. Standing up Amphibious Forces Atlantic Fleet (two infantry divisions and a corps group) was to support that & other similar contingency plans.