Safavid Iran attacks the Ottoman Empire in the wake of the Battle of Vienna

Mr_Fanboy

Mr_Fanboy

I am not an expert on either the history of the Ottoman Empire or Persia, but I found this paragraph from the Wikipedia article on the Battle of Vienna to be very interesting...

The Ottoman defeat at Vienna sparked great celebrations in Safavid Iran; the report was apparently brought in such a spectacular way, that then incumbent King (Shah) Suleiman I (r. 1666–1694) considered a march to Baghdad, which had been lost in 1639 to the Ottomans by virtue of the Treaty of Zuhab.[40] Ultimately, the Safavids did not conduct a new campaign, for concerned state officials (notably the dominant eunuch faction within the royal court) were aware of the decline in Safavid military strength, and thus did not consider it prudent.[40] The eunuchs, according to Professor Rudi Matthee "were not against the idea of having the Ottomans suffer some humiliation, but they did not want their power destroyed for fear that this would remove a buffer against Christian Europe".[40]
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So, what if the Shah, reasoning that this will be his best country's shot of taking back Baghdad for a while, had decided to throw military and geopolitical caution to the wind and launched an invasion of Ottoman territory in the immediate aftermath of their defeat in Europe? Knowing the respective strengths of each army at the time, who is most likely to win such a war, and what impact might it have upon both countries? Furthermore, might Turkish preoccupation elsewhere encourage the Holy League and other parties in Christian Europe to press their post-Vienna advantage even further, and could they be even more successful in rolling back Ottoman territory in Europe?
 
Koprulu Mustafa Pasha

Koprulu Mustafa Pasha

Gone Fishin'
Mr_Fanboy said:
I am not an expert on either the history of the Ottoman Empire or Persia, but I found this paragraph from the Wikipedia article on the Battle of Vienna to be very interesting...



So, what if the Shah, reasoning that this will be his best country's shot of taking back Baghdad for a while, had decided to throw military and geopolitical caution to the wind and launched an invasion of Ottoman territory in the immediate aftermath of their defeat in Europe? Knowing the respective strengths of each army at the time, who is most likely to win such a war, and what impact might it have upon both countries? Furthermore, might Turkish preoccupation elsewhere encourage the Holy League and other parties in Christian Europe to press their post-Vienna advantage even further, and could they be even more successful in rolling back Ottoman territory in Europe?
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As soon as the Ottomans are finished in Europe they are going after the Persians, and boy will they be angry at them.

Austria gets either better terms (Banat returns as well) or the war ends fast as no large catastrophes like Mohacs (1687), Slankamen (1691) and Zenta (1697) happen due to the war with Persia. Poland-Lithuania gets Podolia earlier. In any case, better for the Europeans. The Safavids are screwed.
 
Koprulu Mustafa Pasha

Koprulu Mustafa Pasha

Gone Fishin'
Mr_Fanboy said:
What might this look like in practical terms? How might the borders between the two empires change?
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The borders of the treaty in 1590. So basically everything from the Caucasus to the Persian Gulf with Hamadan as the Most eastern part of the expansion. I might been to hard with this but Azerbaijan is definitely lost for the Safavids.
 
SealTheRealDeal

SealTheRealDeal

Reguardless of how the war goes, the Safavids are now much more vulnerable when the Afghans revolt.

And OTL's revolt was enough to end the Safavids...
 
AdamNeuser

AdamNeuser

It depends on how early the Safavids declare war on the Ottoman Empire. In OT, shortly after the defeat at Vienna, Grand Vizier Kara Mustafa was executed, followed by a wholesale dismantling of the Korprulu apparatus within the Ottoman state, which had been built up over the past half a century. Essentially the Ottomans had put themselves into a position of political instability during a period of major crisis on their frontiers.

If the Ottoman government is smart, they'll recognise that they're fighting a coalition of major European powers, and also the Safavid Empire. Recognising the impending crisis, they could try and immediately enter peace negotiations with the Holy League, rather than screwing themselves, and could get away with giving minimum concessions. Perhaps ceding Podolia to the commonwealth like they did in OT, revoking their support for Imre Thokoloy in Upper Hungary and ceding Uyvar to Austria. Perhaps additionally ceding some land in Dalmatia to Venice, who would have preferred not to have a long drawn out war with the Ottomans anyway because they were major trading partners. I think this is feasible because Ottoman diplomacy at the end of the war in OT at Karlowitz was very good despite their military defeats: https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/597591.pdf?seq=1

This would allow them to focus their full attention on the Safavid Empire, who would be in big trouble. If the Ottoman Empire is victorious against the Safavid Empire during this war, they could potentially revoke many of the major gains made by Shah Abbas I at the start of the 17th century, strengthening influence and control over the Caucasus and up to the Zagros mountains. This would have major ramifications of the Safavid state and it could potentially collapse even earlier than in OT.
 
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