The problem is that NASA still has the overall weaknesses in the Apollo system.
#1- No alternative if the LM engine doesn't ignite the astronauts are dead.
#2- The CSM engine doesn't ignite for TEI the astronauts are dead.
Going to the moon is dangerous. However visiting places like the far side doesn't really increase the chances of #1 or #2 happening with the current hardware.
The Soviets are only in a better position (from the point of view of more assured survival, certainly not from the point of view of mission capability) if my suggestion that the Soyuz has a suspenders-and-belt independent capability of boosting itself out of Lunar orbit on an acceptable return trajectory back to Earth is true; the authors have indicated it isn't. I don't see why not; if the N-1 can orbit a full 75 tons of payload, in the form of the Ghe stage (sized around 50 tons to achieve the entire TLI on its own) and the De stage and the Soyuz, there are almost 25 tons for the latter two; even a De that can brake a heavy Soyuz into Lunar orbit and then back out and back to Earth atmospheric braking leaves mass, I think, for the Soyuz to do it too.
The thing is such a plan is quite obviously wasteful of mass that could otherwise be used to expand mission capabilities; NASA did without double assurance the CSM could get back to Earth. However the authors have not indicated what use they make of the greater mass instead, whereas I'm pretty confident it is there if they start out with 75 tons. Perhaps the payload to orbit is less or perhaps I have gravely miscalculated; I have had to admit the numbers as I ran them were tight.
The greatest uncertainty I face is exactly how much delta-V is needed for the Lunar rendezvous; that depends on the trajectory. A wide range of trajectory energies, from a minimal and slow Hohmann orbit to one that achieves or exceeds Earth escape velocity
are available for very small differences in delta-V at TLI--the price of a higher-energy, faster orbit shows up mainly in the encounter with the Moon, with the fast orbits requiring more braking delta-V to be captured.
One near-constant that all these orbits, economical or fast, share, is that since the velocity difference between them is quite small upon leaving low Earth orbit, the angular momentum the craft carries, in an Earth-centered system of coordinates, is essentially identical--and far less than the angular momentum of the Moon in its near-circular orbit. So even on a fast orbit, the extra speed shows up mainly in radial speed; from the Moon's point of view, all the orbits, whether fast or slow in the direction of zooming past the Moon outward into deep space, are all lagging the Moon's orbital speed of almost exactly 1000 meters/sec by over 800 m/sec. From the Moon's point of view the spacecraft is seen moving against the Moon's motion by that speed. Vice versa, if a spacecraft escaping the Moon's field wants to get down to Earth with a perigee close enough to be captured by the atmosphere, it has to be leaving Lunar space with that same speed again directed against the Moon's motion; whatever speed the overall trajectory is from Earth's point of view, the tangential component has to be that same pokey well under 200/m sec for the angular momentum to be low enough to permit a close approach.
So it isn't enough to depart the Moon with just escape velocity; a returning craft has to have enough additional velocity to have enough energy so that when it is very far from the Moon, where its kinetic energy relative to the Moon is much greater than its gravitational potential within the Moon's field, it has this relative velocity--plus enough more to be moving inward at a speed that gets it to Earth reasonably soon.
Well, I did attempt to factor all that in, and to average a bare minimum speed that could achieve a Hohmann orbit (which would take almost 6 days, I believe, to get to perigee from its Lunar apogee) with the highest speed I inferred the Apollo CSM could manage. Doing that I think the Soyuz can carry enough propellant to escape the Moon's orbit without any help from its De stage. But it is tight.
If I just roll with author canon, and accept that the Soyuz delta-V is far short of what is needed to escape orbit, then the Soyuz too is utterly dependent on the De stage's engine firing--twice, once during orbital insertion (and failure there might be survivable for tropical Lunar orbits with a free return planned, or easily available with small maneuvers from the Soyuz--or fatal in the case of a botched polar orbit) and again to go home.
I still think I'm clever to have pointed out the other possible safety factor, the LK's own De stage. Since the LK has less mass than the Soyuz presumably its De stage, which presumably started out at least as massive the Soyuz's, has more propellant in it than the Soyuz's does--if the Soyuz's De is adequate to get them home the LK's is even more capable. But this is analogous, roughly, to the fact that the Apollo missions two had not one but two big engines available to them before the commitment to a Lunar landing--not just the Apollo SM main engine, but also the LM's landing engine. As demonstrated so dramatically by Apollo 13!
Actually the LK De stage is quite superior to the LM landing engine, or even, I would bet, both the LM's engines used in succession.
But of course first of all, the authors have said nothing about whether it is practical for the LK to undock from its De and be discarded, then the Soyuz to mate with it. And more importantly, it seems highly unlikely the Soyuz's De can succeed in bringing the Soyuz to low Lunar orbit and rendezvous with the LK, and yet be suspected of being unreliable for TEI. If it works OK coming in, chances are it will work fine going out; contingencies where someone has good reason to foresee otherwise are pretty unlikely.
Once the LK commits to a Moon landing, goodbye LK-De as a backup--its fuel will be consumed completely preparing the LK for its landing and the stage itself will crash into the Moon.
At that point--per the authors, either the Soyuz-De stage's kerlox engine engine fires and pushes them home, or they are just as dead as any Apollo astronaut whose SM failed to ignite for TEI.
Since my math might be off I would suggest a compromise to the authors--that for the tropical missions, the Soyuz can indeed rely on moving close to a free-return orbit in case the De fails immediately, and so either these early missions carry less mass than I calculate they could or they use more of that mass for other (but unspecified!
) purposes. But on the polar approaches, when free-return is not an option, they fill up on propellant, paring down the empty mass of the ship as necessary, to provide enough fuel to survive a De failure. As I've estimated before if the dry Soyuz masses 7 tons, 3 or at most 4 more should be plenty to escape Luna on a return trajectory with some margin to spare and I repeat, I don't know what the missions that avoid carrying that much hypergolic fuel for the Soyuz are carrying instead. Nor do I believe I'm so far off in my estimates of the necessary mass for the Ghe stage that that margin isn't available. There isn't much good the mission architecture allows the extra tonnage to do as anything but a fuel reserve; you can't land more on the LK for instance, nor are they carrying a third cosmonaut who requires an extra-heavy reentry and orbital module, nor can they carry anything that enables two cosmonauts to go down to the Moon. So why not reserve fuel?
Consider this--NASA was confident in the Apollo SM main engine because it was a hypergolic engine, like the Soyuz's. Mix the fuels and they are guaranteed to ignite--the only things to go wrong are if the fuel delivery system fails to operate or if something cracks open. (The oxygen tank explosion on Apollo 13 did crack things open! The astronauts, when they finally got a look as they approached reentry, reported seeing damage to the nozzle, and God knows what other damage they couldn't see inside!
) The De stage engine on the other hand burns Ker-LOX, and needs turbomechanical pumps to operate; these are another failure point as is the ignition system.
On the other hand if my math is not far wrong, the Soviet planners
could indeed provide for two separate systems to enable return from Lunar orbit--wastefully in that this capability might have somehow been used instead to allow more capable missions--longer stays for one cosmonaut, or for both to descend together in a bigger lander while a third one stays to man the Soyuz.
The reason they had this left-over awkward capability is that originally they were hoping to cram everything needed into one launch of a bigger N-1. Failure to achieve that, requiring a second N-1 to complete the mission, left some capacity over the minimum required.
If future missions are "right-sized," then the cosmonauts will face the risk of death due to a single point of failure just as Apollo astronauts did ITTL and OTL.
I didn't address the LK and lunar landing part of the mission as compared to Apollo's LM. There too the risks are similar. If the LK's De engine fails to start--well that's a mission abort, just as if the LM's descent engine fails to fire--the former being a bit more likely than the latter since the LM also used hypergolic fuels in a relatively simple engine. It seems less likely the De would start out working well and then quit, but if it did it would be like a similar breakdown in the LM--in many though not quite all contingencies, the Apollo Lunar crew of two could escape in the Ascent Module (assuming its hypergolic engine, hitherto untested, fired of course) which had delta-V to get up to orbit from the Lunar surface after all. Well, the LK is essentially a slightly glorified AM--very little of its total delta-V hence fuel was meant to be used descending, just about all of it was for the ascent afterward. The extra fuel is offset a bit by the mass of the landing legs, but in an emergency these would of course be discarded soon!
Finally, if the De works as advertised but the LK engine fails on landing approach--well as e of pi pointed out in another thread a year ago, the LK actually had a backup engine!
Both are hypergolic. If the failure is on landing approach I think it would likely be fatal, backup or no--even if the cosmonaut can avoid a fatal crash, they'd use up too much fuel meant for ascent I'd fear.
If the failure is that somehow neither engine ignites for takeoff, then like Apollo astronauts with a dysfunctional Ascent stage engine, the cosmonaut is simply doomed. But that's why they have 2 engines after all, unlike the daring Apollo astronauts with their one--one that unlike the LK's engine set has not been tested at all until this point. But again NASA had confidence in the LM Ascent engine due to it being a simple hypergolic design--LK had two Soviet-designed hypergolic engines.
By and large, the risk element comes out pretty much a wash I think, especially if the practice is to test the LK's engines in brief maneuvers, such as pulling away from dock with the Soyuz, before engaging the De for its crasher run. So far, the Russians are only risking one cosmonaut in this final stage of the mission, the Americans two astronauts. The Russian lander is tiny, and the mission capability a mere sketch of what Americans, even in their shortest early missions, could accomplish. But only a small minority of scientists and space visionaries with their eyes on distant horizons of the future care about Lunar science and actual exploration; in terms of accomplishing political milestones the LK is an admirable feat of focused miniaturization!